Thomas,
Yes, it is odd, suspicious even, how Rossi has over the years changed the testing methods for his demos of the Ecat. Or why he didn't always use one, lone Ecat, instead of multiples. Strange too how he never offered up an Ecat to the Ferrara/Lugano professors to test, opting instead to loan them the new Hotcat. Then providing them a differently constructed Hotcat for the second test (Lugano).
One could conclude from his behavior that he purposely tried to prevent easy comparisons between tests, or to allow any refinement of testing methodology to mask something.
Nothing new to these charges, as they have been a mainstay of critiques since late 2011. Rightfully so. Not surprisingly, believers look at the many public demos, private DDs, no matter their ever changing nature, as evidence Rossi has confidence in his products. It takes a brave/stupid scammer to expose himself so many times, with so many different people, and entities.
Braver still to turn over his fake product to a team of scientists, as Rossi did at Ferraro/Lugano. Not to say bravado should substitute for good scientific reasoning, or results. That is why I say the Ferrara results were "tantalizing", because they weren't satisfactory scientific proof of anything, as you say, and the professors admitted. As weak an argument as it may be, you skeps haven't effectively proven it wrong...yet.
With Lugano, you, Thomas Clark, have shown it wrongly calculated with the data made available from the report itself. Shameful how the profs didn't honor their publicly made commitment to answer questions, but I still await further information we may not be privy to, that may change your calculations. As you know, the profs, according to Lewan, sent a sample of the alumina for a full analysis...which I assume was for the translucence at high temps? Maybe Mats Lewan could give an update?
Rounded up (hey I'm a believer) your Lugano estimate is a COP1.1. That is overunity. It even could be as high as 1.4 by your measure. Yes, it could be as low as a normal heater, but your analysis does not kill Lugano. Axil speculates that the Hotcat is Rossi's "mouse", which Rossi has always claimed to be a COP1.1. Maybe that is the case...who knows?