There is a surge of cases in Michigan of the UK B.1.1.7 variant. The governor of Michigan has asked Uncle Sam to expedite vaccines and send more experts to slow down the surge. Unfortunately, this will not work well, for reasons relating to the biology of the virus and the vaccines. It would work with some other viruses, such as smallpox. The vaccines are effective against the UK variant, as shown in the UK. However, the latency period after the vaccination and before it begins effective protection mean that this surge should be controlled with masks and social distancing. An epidemiologist explains:
https://www.washingtonpost.com…higan-its-covid-19-surge/
QUOTE:
Vaccines won’t save Michigan from its covid-19 surge
Céline Gounder, an internist, infectious-disease specialist and epidemiologist, is host of the “Epidemic” and “American Diagnosis” podcasts, chief executive of Just Human Productions and a CNN medical analyst. She served on the Biden-Harris Transition Covid-19 Advisory Board.
Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer, a Democrat, is calling on the Biden administration to surge covid-19 vaccines to her state, where overall cases are as high as they were in November thanks in part to the B.1.1.7 variant of the virus first identified in Britain.
I feel for the governor, but vaccines are not going to save her state. The best strategy for Michigan at this point is to implement the same public health measures that we’ve been using for more than a year.
This is an important lesson not only for Michigan, but also in other places experiencing a surge. The B.1.1.7 variant, now the dominant strain of covid-19 in the United States, is wreaking havoc in Michigan and Minnesota. It’s driving an increase in cases in the Northeast, Mid-Atlantic, Florida and parts of Texas. B.1.1.7 is landing even younger adults in the hospital with severe covid-19. The Michigan Health and Hospital Association found that hospitalizations increased by 633 percent among adults in their 30s and by 800 percent for adults in their 40s over the course of March. . . .
[Additional help and vaccines are being deployed but . . .]
There’s another, more important reason for why more vaccines won’t stop the surge: the coronavirus’s incubation period. Some have suggested we adopt “ring vaccination,” a strategy used to eradicate smallpox in which everyone who has been exposed in an outbreak is vaccinated. But covid-19 isn’t smallpox. Covid-19 has a median incubation period of four to five days; smallpox, 10 to 14 days. It takes about 14 days after one dose of smallpox vaccine for someone to develop an immune response. This means that smallpox vaccination can prevent illness even after someone’s been exposed. Covid math isn’t smallpox math. . . .
. . . The hard truth is that the measures that will help curb Michigan’s surge are those that take effect instantly: masking, sticking to household bubbles, socializing outdoors, not gathering indoors and maximizing indoor ventilation. These are the same mitigation measures that we’ve been recommending for months, the same measures we’re all tired of following and the same measures that so many are discarding now that we have vaccines (even if they haven’t yet been vaccinated).
This is likely to be unwelcome news for Whitmer, who has been resisting imposing unpopular pandemic restrictions once again in her state. But it’s important to understand that while vaccines are great at preventing outbreaks from taking off, they are not so great at slowing a surge once it’s happening. . . .