The Interaction between Physics, Economics, and Society.

  • Veteran LENR researcher Ed Lewis (Plasmoids, Ball Lightning etc) sent me this link, looking at the links between economic progress, scientific discovery and more.

    THE PARADIGM SHIFT CYCLE AS THE CAUSE OF THE KONDRATIEFF WAVE

    The Paradigm Shift Cycle as the Cause of the Kondratieff Wave
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    Author: Lewis, Edward

    Almanac: Kondratieff waves:Processes, Cycles, Triggers, and Technological Paradigms



    DOI: https://doi.org/10.30884/978-5-7057-6191-3_03


    Paradigm shifts in physics happen at 80-year intervals due to two constraints on physics and technology development that constrained the duration of paradigm development to average 80 years. These two constraints cause three generations to produce a physics paradigm and begin the industrialization during an industrial revolution. During each industrial revolution, there is a depressionary era due to the low productivity growth of the dying industries and the transition of the economy to new industries. Another depressionary era begins about 30 years after the end of the depressionary period of the industrial revolution. These depressions are times of high productivity growth when the industries reach the mature stage. The switch of emphasis from product innovation to process innovation causes depressionary eras during which the high corporate and consumer debt, product satiation, oligopoly formation, and increased automation that reduces the demand for labor cause depressions. The duration of the Kondratieff waves varies from about 40 to about 53 years depending on how quickly a paradigm is accepted.

    Keywords: paradigm shifts in physics, scientific revolutions, industrial revolution, paradigm shift cycle, long wave cycle, economic long wave, Kondratieff waves, technological revolution, economic depression, technological acceleration, productivity growth acceleration, automation, unemployment, crisis periods, product innovation, process innovation, automation, labor displacement, physics paradigms.

  • Quote

    If human thought is a growth, like all other growths, its logic is without foundation of its own, and is only the adjusting constructiveness of all other growing things. A tree cannot find out, as it were, how to blossom, until comes blossom-time. A social growth cannot find out the use of steam engines, until comes steam-engine-time.

    - Charles Fort, Lo! (1931)

    Fort warned against the human tendency to lapse into Apophenia. We naturally spot patterns in everything, and as soon as the pattern has visible form, we start ignoring everything that doesn't quite fit. It can take a surprisingly long time for sufficient ignored outliers to accumulate to the point that that the original pattern is no longer tenable. At that point, someone shouts "paradigm shift!", and the process starts all over again.

    "The most misleading assumptions are the ones you don't even know you're making" - Douglas Adams

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