THHuxleynew Verified User
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Posts by THHuxleynew

    From my link above: worth highlighting (and not too long!)


    My older sister, a very wise and smart woman who is a political scientist at Syracuse University, teaches a statistics class to freshmen, where she endeavors to teach them critical thinking. She talks about this as being the most common error in logic: confusing simultaneity with causality. In other words, assuming that because two things are happening at the same time, they exist in a cause and effect relationship with each other.


    Because anyone can say anything anywhere these days (pretty much), there's a lot of fuzzy thinking floating around that seems more legitimate than it would have in former times because it's in print. Now, don't get me wrong: I'm a huge proponent of free speech. I just feel we all have to be more discriminating than ever before about what we believe. Not cynical or negative: discriminating.


    So, when someone proposes a cause and effect relationship between two things - reduction in pirates causing global warming; Obama creating the global economic crisis; young people ruining American business - ask for the data that shows they're related, rather than simply that they're happening at the same time.

    But if you're dead set on becoming a pirate, I'm not going to stop you.

    That is a common myth no doubt fostered by big pharma. The fact is, there were excellent clinicians at the turn of the twentieth century who very aptly described and wrote down for posterity the conditions they were seeing in their patients.

    I think it was in the 1920s when a strange new condition arose : a handful of children in the US had some unique neurological issues and would flap their arms. (This is much like we observe with autistic children today.) Doctors from Europe came to America to witness this very rare condition.

    It happened to be concurrent with the introduction of the diphtheria vaccine, or a certain pesticide, I can't remember which.

    Autism has increased by something like two orders of magnitude since the 1970s and is disrupting the school system.

    I think we have reached the end of this particular debate.


    If you believe autism is not much more broadly diagnosed (and generally acknowledged) now than in the past we will have to disagree. It disrupts the school system because we try much harder now than before to be fair. I have personal experience of this as regards higher education - it is not because are students have suddenly got more autistic.


    If you agree with me about this, then your argument that because the increasing use of vaccines is (roughly) coincident with a rise in acknowledged in society autism there is therefore likely to be some causal connection, is not valid. Of course in any case it would be very weak, as the classic pirates vs global warming apocryphal inverse link illustrates.

    Then I suggest a genetic flaw in your family

    Perhaps we have just all had too many vaccines. You could write a research paper on a new effect you might call FM1onism - the tendency of overly innoculated people to develop a rather caustic sense of humour when reading too many antivaxxer lies?

    So:


    Modern increase in Autism => vaccines cause autism - antivaxxer lie

    Modern increase in allergies => vaccines cause allergies - antivaxxer lie


    However I have some hope for the antivaxxers.


    I've looked to find research on the link between vaccination and a decrease in the value of money.


    Since vaccination started the (real terms) value of money in ALL COUNTRIES has decreased massively.

    I can find no scientific evidence disproving the link.


    I suggest antivaxxers move on to this new less disprovable claim of a harmful side-effect of vaccines.

    Do immunisations cause allergies? - VaccinesToday
    In recent decades there has been an increase in the number of allergies in the general population. This has naturally led people to wonder what is causing
    www.vaccinestoday.eu


    The reunification of Germany is sometimes seen as an informal – but extremely large – experiment in how immunisation policy can affect allergies. Immunisation rates were close to 100% in East Germany where vaccination was compulsory. Prior to reunification there were hardly any allergies.

    After Germany was reunited, vaccination was no longer legally compulsory and the immunisation rate decreased. At the same time, allergies became more common. This would imply that while some aspect (or a combination of aspects) of modern living is responsible for higher allergy rates, vaccination is not part of the equation.


    Actually it does not imply that - but it means that if vaccines cause allergies other effects are more important.

    Re allergies and vaccination.


    There is zero evidence for a link between vaccination and allergies.


    But, theoretically, you might expect a small negative link.


    There is lots of evidence that allergies come from a lack of exposure of the immune system to challenges in childhood. Since vaccines, all, by definition, challenge the immune system you might expect them to have a possible protective effect.


    Were I an antivaxxer with hyped-up speculative abilities, and a corresponding complete inability to separate fact form speculation, I would make that a definite statement - "vaccines reduce allergies".

    children seldom suffered from food allergies, rhinitis, ear infections, neurological issues, autoimmune disorders and autism, all of which are epidemic today

    Umm...


    Those disorders were not being diagnosed in the 1930s - so you really cannot say they have increased. Autism a great example ofnthis where we continue to broaden its definition and pick up muhc larger numbers of children who would never before have been considered. I am sure you know that.


    https://www.medicinenet.com/why_is_autism_increasing_dramatically/article.htm


    of course, in at least some cases, we ALSO have proven links to industrial background pollutants in our water and atmosphere which have vastly increased.

    • Extensive screening: In 2006, the American Academy of Pediatrics recommended that all children between 18 and 24 months of age must be screened for autism during routine pediatrician visits. This meant that more children were now being screened for autism than before, leading to diagnosis of those children who would have otherwise slipped under the radar. This also meant mild cases of autism were picked up by doctors, which would have otherwise been missed.
    • Increased awareness: There is increasing awareness among the general public about autism. Parents actively ask pediatricians to screen their kids if they suspect their kids are not following the normal developmental pattern.
    • Better access to health care: Up until a few years ago, African American and Hispanic children had lower rates of diagnosis due to lack of access to quality health care. Improved access to healthcare facilities has improved the detection of autism in these groups and increased overall prevalence.
    • Broadened criteria for diagnosis: The older version of the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders (DSM) did not allow children to be diagnosed with both autism and attention-deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD). The DSM-5 version, which is a more recent one, allows multiple diagnoses and we now use the term autism spectrum disorders (ASDs).


    And allergies: well researched and there is good evidence for why they have increased so much...


    Why has there been a global increase in food allergies?
    Food allergy cases have risen by up to 50% in the past decade, with a 700% rise in hospitalisations
    www.rte.ie

    OMG. I've just realised.


    My mother was vaccinated. Not againt COVID, of course, but lots of other things. And she died. She was on oxygen for the last year of her life and always thought it was type 1 diabetes + (because of diabetes) undiagnosed till much too late heart disease + smoking which wrecked her lungs.


    But now, after reading this thread, Mark U, and realising how hard all the pharma companies are trying to kill us.


    It must have been a side effect of all those childhood vaccinations she had.

    The potential role of vitamin D supplementation as a gut microbiota modifier in healthy individuals


    But in any case you are OT when challenged (be careful - it is a bad sign that classifies you with the antivaxxers).


    The topic was whether Vit D was a COVID drug - answer no.


    On the broader topic of "what does Vit D help with" - this is the potential role of Vit D as gut microbiotia modifier.


    Everything under the sun, including eating different types of fibre, as a known effect of gut microbiotia.. It seems likely that some of these effects are helpful in various ways. The links are tenuous - many things can be shown associated with "increased gut health" (as evidenced by what - higher microbiota diversity?). The associations are not clear causal links. thus - does Firmicutes to Bacterordetes ratio affect obestity? Od does obesity affect it? Or (most likely) do food habits associated with obesity also make this ration higher.


    You can speculate what you like about many different things, including Vit D, with this type of loose association. You need something stronger to make definite causal links.


    In the case of Vit D - when those have been tested - so fra the results have been dissapointing.

    No surprise, I have provided studies, you disagree with conclusions.

    No, I disagree with your interpretation of the conclusions.


    There is plenty evidence that Vit D correlates with many good things. Then, from RCTs, when specific things are tested to determine whether the correlation is related to taking or not taking Vit D supplements, it vanished. Which makes it clear (in these cases) this is either reverse correlation (less well people have lower Vit D) or indirect correlation (other thing e.g. being young that boost health also boost Vit D levels).


    I'm not ruling out some good effects from Vit D. It is quite reasonable there should be, and mots people are deficient so good reason to take supplements. It is juts that 100% of the claims - when tested for real, have so far proven wrong. Not sure therefore it is good to assume the ones not yet tested are correct.


    THH

    One would think so, but that begs the question of why the public health officials and media in Canada are continually pushing for more vaccinations! They know that those remaining nutcase crazy crank nimcompoops who haven't yet received even one injection aren't going to start now.

    Because, unlike governments (who are not worried as long as numbers are low enough) doctors don't like to see people die.


    Fact: vaccination reduces death from omicron (a lot) for first-time COVID infections.


    Fact: there are still a significant number of people who have never had COVID


    Fact: some proportion of those will be unvaccinated. And they are not all ideological mark U's. Some of them have been half-convinced by antivaxxer social media and because of that are slow to come forward. People are people.


    I agree you could try to caveat things, identify specific demographic groups mots at risk, target messages more at people who have not had COVID. But public health message that are nuanced and complex don't work.


    THH

    Thankfully, a smaller and smaller portion of society will get jabbed, so almost surely funding will dry up. This is already occurring - vaccine demand is dwindling. That fact is very conspicuous by its absence in the article. It would hinder the Messaging I suppose. Here is Ontario data on the number of people getting vaccinated over time

    That is surely because everyone (apart from a few cranks) is now vaccinated?


    The original COVID vaccines do not have regulatory agreement for an indefinite number of jabs - and each extra one will get more difficult given that COVID is so far now from what they were designed for, and data on reactogenicity shows it increasing with each jab.


    Still we will get better vaccines in a year or two - which I'd hope you will welcome.

    You miss the point. All adverse effects of Covid is caused by a vitamin d Deficiency, every single symptom, yet the NIH and CDC continue to say not enough evidence to promote vitamin D. Vitamin d deficency also affects the efficacy of vaccines!

    I disagree. You have no evidence for that view.

    I wonder what happened to those easily tweaked mRNA vaccines. Oh yes, they lied!!!!

    No evidence for that! No government has asked for (and volunteered to pay for) for the tweaked versions yet - because they think the original works well enough. It costs.


    Personally I don't agree - but governments look at the big picture not a few people dying of covid or flu. - so current vaccines are good enough. One reason for sticking with current is that the whole sfaety thing needs to be done over again then. Maybe it can be a bit quicker.


    I'm expecting we will have wide release of better vaccines within 12 months. Hope i'm right!

    My sympathy goes out to you, I can see that you have really suffered with so many of your family having adverse vaccine reactions. For me - well my darling wife died after a 'flu jab' which went seriously wrong. Two years later I am still coming to terms with it. If only, if only she had taken my advice (to avoid vaccination) I am sure she would be still alive.

    Flu kills people, and Flue vaccinations have reduced those deaths a lot.


    The chances of dying from a Flu vaccination are definitely lower than from Flu. In that case, I'm very sorry that it happened, but all we can do it the thing that on average will be best, and the rest is for God.

    Mark U meets so many people dying from vaccines... when no-one else does.


    Perhaps it is not vaccines they are dying from - but some mysterious miasma emitted by mark U?

    Umm....


    Its like groundhog day.


    In fact the subtitle in the paper says it too...


    https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/0001691880900463#:~:text=The%20base%2Drate%20fallacy%20is,%2C%20and%20social%2Dpsychological%20settings.


    There is also another effect: most of the unvaccinated now have already caught COVID, so are second time rounders. Most of the ones who were going to die will have done it first time!

    Can't tell you the number of times I heard 'top' doctors on local radio counsel listeners to take heart if they were suffering after their injections, saying that their immunity would be especially strong - keeping the community that much more safe.

    What a mind job.

    Yeah - well top doctors on radio (anyone involved in PR) like weird posts on facebook or weird internet sites that push agendas - should all be taken with a pinch of salt.


    All you can say is that if you had a broken immune system you would not react to vaccines - so I guess it is a very weak sign. Notable that reactogenicity is normally higher in younger people - who generally have more effective immune systems.


    Do you take medical advice from radio shows?