THHuxleynew Verified User
  • Member since Jan 18th 2017

Posts by THHuxleynew

    Zephir,


    I'm glad you posted this again, because I know you like to understand stuff and will appreciate what I am about to say (again).


    Comparing risks from vaccines in a trial quantitatively with COVID risks from the same trial makes no sense (without a large adjustment factor).


    Obviously, the risks from the trial depends on the trial length and the COVID rate. By this standard none of the childhood vaccines would pass, because the viruses they protect against are (now) rare. The COVID vaccine trials were very short - designed to be minimum length because this was an emergency deployment. Therefore few people on them ever caught COVID.


    The correct comparison is vaccine risk (per jab) against the difference in risk, if you catch covid, between being vaccinated and unvaccinated, since we know almost everyone ended up catching COVID and since the advent of delta (let alone omicron) it was pretty obvious that would happen.


    The comparison made here would rate a vaccine 10X better just because it was conducted at a time and place when the local COVID rate was 10X higher. That can't be right!


    This is so obviously (to anyone thinking about it seriously) wrong it counts as antivaxxer rhetoric. Anyone making this argument is either very naive and being misled by others, or deliberately misleading people.


    THH

    Maybe you should look at Mexico city who passed out ivermectin to positive patients. During the experiment, hospitalized and mortality fell like a rock, yet it was called unethical and the government stopped treatment. Although information wasn't suppressed it was called unethical and the media followed. Kory in my opinion has every right to be upset with the way ivermectin information is being peddled by a bought and paid media. You included!!!

    Covid-19: Mexico City gave ivermectin kits to people with covid in “unethical” experiment
    The government of Mexico City handed out nearly 200 000 “ivermectin based kits” last year to people who had tested positive for covid-19, without telling them…
    www.bmj.com


    and the withdrawn paper details: https://osf.io/preprints/socarxiv/r93g4/


    It seems there were severe conflicts of interest here. And the author who agreed with the retraction was a data analyst...


    Hmmm - why would that be I wonder. Observational studies are very error-prone, even when well-conducted. Little details of how data is processed make a big difference to results. My question to you is why do you think this study is useful, when everyone else (except for like-minded antivaxxers and FLCC fanatics) thinks it is very low reliability? That is specially true for COVID where COVID rates vary so much over time and with age, so that comparing one set of results with another is very challenging. We have worked through all those stuff in detail here before, if you remember, when this thread was less of a political stomping ground for antivaxxers.


    This study may or may not have been unethical - but was certainly poorly conducted.


    We have any number of poorly conducted low reliability studies on ivermectin. It is pretty clear from evidence I posted a year ago that greater reliability => less strong results. The data fro this is compelling. In which case a low reliability trial with positive results tells us nothing.


    The ethical issue is quite interesting on the issue - raised by you and otehrs here - of why reliable studies do not use ultra-high doses of ivermectin.


    Two recent ethics scandals have cast a further shadow over ivermectin research. First, a report of an experimental study in Mexico City that gave almost 200 000 ivermectin based medical kits to residents with covid-19 was retracted from the preprint server SocArXiv.10 The report was retracted, says SocArXiv’s director, because the experiment was conducted “without proper consent or appropriate ethical protections.”11 Second, in an experiment in a jail in Arkansas, USA, four incarcerated men developed severe side effects after a physician gave them high dose ivermectin as a supposed covid-19 treatment without their knowledge.10 The four men are suing the jail.

    Lack of consent was not the only ethical violation in these two scandals. The research participants were exposed to a risk of drug side effects without knowing they had been given ivermectin. In Mexico, the failure to give information to the participants infringed on a human right established in Mexico’s constitution: the right to access information.12 The Arkansas case raises additional concerns as it involved incarcerated people, who risk coercion and exploitation when they are enrolled in clinical research.

    It is also arguably unethical and a waste of resources to conduct drug research in an emergency that is of such low quality that no conclusions can be drawn about the drug’s efficacy. That is the situation we find ourselves in today—it is still unclear whether ivermectin is safe or has any benefit in the treatment or prevention of covid-19.13 The flawed and potentially fraudulent research represents a huge missed opportunity to answer an important research question.


    At the doses suggested higher than those used in all the properly recorded trials side effects become a real issue. Since most people recover from COVID fine, in early-stage treatments, even 1% severe side effects are a real issue in a drug that works. We have as yet no evidence that ivermectin works, if it worked say 20% of the time that means that 0.2% bad side effects becomes relevant.


    This highlights the difference between politics, where facts are hard to find and even those well attested (like the validity of a US election) get trashed by politicians who find them inconvenient, And science where everyone admits to the (relative) certainties and uncertainties, and people are cautious, waiting for a coherent relationships between sets of studies before coming to conclusions and using known past information (e.g. that observational studies in preprint tend to bias results and that the urgency of COVID has greatly magnified this tendency) to inform views, rather than doing a political "cite only the views that support your position" thing.


    We cannot know that ivermectin in some form is not useful. But the big RCTs having results that are not clearly positive is very strongly inconsistent with all that FLCC evidence. Since the evidence is highly inconsistent (proven) we cannot give the least reliable bits of it weight. So your, and FLCCs arguments on this not scientifically justified.


    I could agree with the doses are too small argument if you had good data to contradict the maximum safe dose levels that everyone (even FLCC) seems to use for early-stage therapy. That could be discussed here properly with complete references till we get to the bottom of what evidence we have of lack of side effects at very high doses? It would need to include the time ivermectin stays in the body and the dose regime over time, compared with things we know are safe.


    THH


    Shane - do you mean he was not a founder of FLCC? Or am I distorting FLCC? Confused.


    More generally - just as he was convinced early treatment with ivermectin saved lives, so he and others may be convinced early treatment with other stuff saves lives.


    The reason for caution is pretty obvious - the things that have been tried in RCTs do not deliver the "its obvious - lets do it" results that guys like Kory expect.


    But no-one is against early treatment options - if we can find them. It is only in the US this could become the stuff of talk shows and politics. The reason for special caution with early treatment is you have to medicate everyone - not just those with severe disease. So a medicine that does even a tiny but of harm, and no good, kills people. The same ultra-caution over safety applies to vaccines - the earliest type of early treatment. In past epidemics we have rushed to early treatment options that proved (eventually) to have killed more people than they saved.


    Anyway - have you heard of early treatment for the common cold? Or Flu? (I think we have an antiviral for Flu now, it took a long time).


    The Together has been ripped to shreds by just about everyone who internet peer reviewed it. And the Activ actually showed some small benefit, even though the initial dose was too small.


    I was exactly correct about trials:

    TOGETHER - negative - though stopped early (clearly they did not like the idea getting death threats via social media from FLCC promoters if their results were negative) so tolerance of error +/- allows small positive

    ACTIV - negative - the results were within what you expect statistically for something that has no effect. Sceintists do not say that "shows small positive effect". They say "that shows no effect".

    PRINCIPLE - fairly neutral - or it would have reported by now, but we will know exactly how neutral in a few months.


    I said "at most a small positive effect".


    Advocates of drugs (like FLCC) can always claim higher doses are more effective. The reasons for limiting doses is side effects.


    THH


    PS - PRINCIPLE has found budesonide reduces recovery time in the population as a whole. This paper just shows how tough it is to know whether early treatment options do good or harm.


    https://www.thelancet.com/article/S0140-6736(21)01744-X/fulltext


    and it is currently withdrawn as a UK early treatment option - not because Uk doctors want to kill people - because they no that useless treatments still have unwanted side effects and occasional interactions with other medicines:


    GPs told to no longer prescribe budesonide to treat Covid
    The chief medical officers (CMOs) have withdrawn a recommendation for inhaled budesonide as a treatment for Covid.
    www.pulsetoday.co.uk


    So what early treatment options do Shane's internet doctors know about that would improve our non-political treatment in the UK? I am sure the doctors here will listen to any real evidence?

    Not sure whether this is actually written by antivaxxers, but as a UK resident well aware of the data here the headline here shows great ignorance.


    CFRs are never reliable, because cases are not the same as infections.


    In the Uk we have well documented case rates, but also via the wonderful ONS survey very accurate whole-population infection rates.


    Over the period here - the government policy relaxed from mandating PCR and LFT tests, meaning case rates track infection rates much better, towards discouraging tests.


    Guidelines for business similarly changed making it much less likely that infections will be detected as cases.


    In addition omicron resulted in stealth infections indistinguishable from common cold and therefore not recorded as cases unless LFTs are mandated.


    Any comparison of CASE rates with hospitalisation, rather than comparing the much more reliable ONS survey infection rates with hospitalisation, is just plain silly.


    Or maybe not so silly if you have an antivaxxer agenda?


    Anyway, let us be generous, and note that the thing which is a mystery to the researchers here is for any UK resident quite obvious: case rates have gone down over this period due to deliberate government policy which discourages testing as part of a "live with COVID" agenda - infection rates have not tracked case rates.

    Stop the War on Doctors | RealClearHealth


    "People are tired of arrogant public officials and compromised institutions who believe they have all the answers but constantly get it wrong and make no apologies as they steamroll those who don’t support the current narrative."

    Another good example.


    Pierre Kory is as we all know a founder of FLCC and strong advocate of ivermectin for the treatment of COVID. As the big RCTs are now coming in we find for sure that it has no (or at most very little) benefit. Kory was arguing that RCTs were not needed because the benefits were so obvious they needed no proof.


    He was wrong. Definitely, absolutely. Even though whether ivermectin has some very small benefit or harm is not yet known it is not the transformative drug that FLCC claimed. Black swans happen, but swans are usually white. And this swan had been color-checked 100s of times and the elusive black spots vanish when examined in more detail.


    I don't criticise Kory for being wrong, or even fanatically wrong. That is part of science, and medicine, you get isolated fanatics. Just occasionally it does good. In medicine getting things wrong kills people, but that is not the fault of the doctors who being human will make mistakes or just sometimes do the wrong thing because everyone is mistaken.


    I criticise Kory, as here, for his arrogance in blaming everyone else and assuming therefore they must be corrupt or badly-meaning.


    And this meme from him has power - corrupting public discourse. Look at Shane here who accepts it as a true part of the US debate on institutions. I expect US medical institutions are all wrong. The extreme privatisation of medicine in the US is a great example of where the capitalist system just does not work. Not that it in principle could not work - but as currently run and regulated there are too many conflicts of interest between profit motive and proper behaviour, with nothing to correct that. Hooking up Kory's weird complaints to this is a distraction, and a harmful one, for anyone seeking health reform in the US.

    Another example of how the quality peer-reviewed scientific literature is not as a whole biassed. There is no tendency to underestimate risks of new vaccines - far from it. As it should be.


    If your (politically or tribally informed) worldview is that vaccines are uniquely bad for people, or that COIVID vaccines are a worldwide conspiracy, and the scientific establishment is covering it up, you need a whole load of other ideas to make this consistent including widespread censorship of science.


    I suggest it is more plausible that what gets censored is non-science - which is the whole point of peer review. Of course peer review is never perfect. Good stuff gets rejected, bad stuff gets through. Good stuff always has a chance to get accepted in a different journal, so that is not too high a cost for the benefit of removing a lot (not all) of the rest, and through "minor changes" improving the quality and tightening up what does get published. Again, not a perfect process, but overall helpful.


    This is so far away from the antivaxxer propaganda, which unsourced argument to support and agenda and has no relationship to science, that it is a joke.


    Unfortunately some folks here can't (or more maybe won't) attempt to differentiate the two.


    I often think that right-wing characters tend to be optimistic, left-wing pessimistic. The trashing of science and scientists is most profoundly pessimistic, yet seems to attach more to the right-wing - although in the past it has been associated with extremes on both sides of the spectrum.


    Scientists are people, and journals, universities are institutions. I know from personal experience that both are corruptible. In either, giving up hope and the struggle to make things better by rejecting from the outside is wrong.


    If you don't hear of a few examples of bad behaviour then either there is censorship or no-one is looking. We need to look for this stuff always, because that is how we keep things clean.


    The antivaxxers claim to be uniquely privileged to see corruption so blatant it is 100X larger than the stuff we do find, and do so using social media distribution of published material which obviously (when you look at it) is propaganda or opinion - not science. All this does is cloud the waters so the genuine decisions about risk and benefit are more difficult to make. Adding in Fox news, talk shows, and political appointments, as in the US - is a whole other layer of this harmful process.

    consequently maligned Texas cardiologist has been through a whirlwind during the pandemic with great ups- and-downs. Now a rising media star mostly via right-wing outlets such as Fox News that allow for a more critical view of the pandemic countermeasure response (at least for now), McCullough estimates that over 35% of the American public are aligning with his point of view. That's serious influence

    And...


    That is what I mean about US politicisation of science.


    Personally., I'd rather science is NOT decided by talk show popularity.

    One of the authors (Robert Kaplan) from Stanford Univ is one of the most respected in the field.

    The excess risk of serious adverse events of special interest surpassed the risk reduction for COVID-19 hospitalization relative to the placebo group in both Pfizer and Moderna trials (2.3 and 6.4 per 10,000 participants, respectively).


    From the results.


    While that is true, it is meaningless - it is what you say when you want to make a point - that the risks here deserve more study.


    When you compare (fixed) vaccine risks with (scaled by COVID rate and study time) placebo COVID risks you get a meaningless comparison. To make sense you need to scale up to 100% chnace of getting COVID (in the Uk we are at 80% now).


    I actually agree with that point. The serious adverse effects are at a higher rate than many other vaccines and do deserve special study if we are going to contine to use these first vaccines, or even slightly modded versions (you'd expect risks to be similar). COVID mRNA vaccines are not a good candidate for a permanent every year flu-jab type vaccine for lots of reasons - we need something better.


    But it is an opinion piece, possibly informed by vaccine politics which is horrible but pretty well 100% there in the US - not something presenting new science. Robert M Kaplan is a pioneering Behavioural Scientist - not an immunology expert - and likely to me more enmeshed in the politics than most (though I'm not sure on what side).


    Everyone is entitled to publish opinions, even famous Stanford profs. public health decisions are so controversial because they are rooted in psychology, which is an even softer science than traditional medicine.

    Serious Adverse Events of Special Interest Following mRNA Vaccination in Randomized Trials by Joseph Fraiman, Juan Erviti, Mark Jones, Sander Greenland, Patrick Whelan, Robert M. Kaplan, Peter Doshi :: SSRN


    Results: Pfizer and Moderna mRNA COVID-19 vaccines were associated with an increased risk of serious adverse events of special interest, with an absolute risk increase of 10.1 and 15.1 per 10,000 vaccinated over placebo baselines of 17.6 and 42.2 (95% CI -0.4 to 20.6 and -3.6 to 33.8), respectively. Combined, the mRNA vaccines were associated with an absolute risk increase of serious adverse events of special interest of 12.5 per 10,000 (95% CI 2.1 to 22.9). The excess risk of serious adverse events of special interest surpassed the risk reduction for COVID-19 hospitalization relative to the placebo group in both Pfizer and Moderna trials (2.3 and 6.4 per 10,000 participants, respectively).

    Discussion: The excess risk of serious adverse events found in our study points to the need for formal harm-benefit analyses, particularly those that are stratified according to risk of serious COVID-19 outcomes such as hospitalization or death.


    SSRN-id4125239.pdf (riotimesonline.com)

    Which proves my point taht anything can be published - no?


    Even from somone like J Fraiman self-advertising on twitter as "ER Doc with a science hobby". Probably not the best positioned to review the science of risk/benefit here. Which is what that paper tries to do but in reality it is just an opinion piece. The same is true for global warming deniers - although their arguments have had to get more and more obscurely twisted over time as the claims are shown false by recorded temps following models or worse (alas for us all - I was hoping the models would be a bit on the high side).


    So: no censorship.

    => you can find all opinions, as you should. And anyone who does a "find and believe like-minded people" trawl of even the peer-reviewed literature can find evidence for anything. Just muhc much less, and the serious reviews, if read properly, show why.

    Now as for bit chute, if you question mainstream you are banned! So it seems the only place to post is on a rightwing site. Do you agree?

    No to both your propositions.


    1. Many people question mainstream views but are not banned.
    2. As I said in the post you replied to, there are plenty of neutral sites (not specifically right-wing) that can be used for any views which are banned. In fact journals do not ban contentious views - they ban contentious views which are not well supported by science.


    Let me ask you a different question. If all internet sites are uncensored (as Elon Musk would like) how do you determine what is science and what is propaganda.


    You have just proven that you (for example) do not do this accurately because you are giving equal weight to obvious propaganda (like the above paper) as you do to high quality peer reviewed science.


    Take one example - is negative info about COVID vaccines banned? No - not by peer-reviewed journals - though it may be by politicians for good or bad reasons.


    https://www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pnas.2024597118


    And for specific negative peer-reviewed articles in high impact journals:


    https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(22)00791-7/fulltext


    Why emergency COVID-vaccine approvals pose a dilemma for scientists
    Immunizations are speeding towards approval before clinical trials end, but scientists say this could complicate efforts to study long-term effects.
    www.nature.com


    Reports of myocarditis and pericarditis following mRNA COVID-19 vaccination: a systematic review of spontaneously reported data from the UK, Europe and the USA and of the scientific literature
    Objectives To combine spontaneously reported data from multiple countries to estimate reporting rate, and better understand risk factors for myocarditis and…
    bmjopen.bmj.com

    Mr Covid science doesn't dig very deep!


    https://www.bitchute.com/channel/7dNrFbLeGSev/

    You mean he does not reference unpublished anonymous antivaxxer bitchute videos...


    (1) Do you agree that there is a lot of propaganda on the internet (on both sides of any political issue)?

    (2) How do you personally work out whether a video you find somewhere is propaganda, or proper science from those who are have something to contribute and care about the science more than which side it supports? I've posted the various ways I try to make this distinction.


    I'd also suggest that bitchute is not a likely source for accurate science... Far right organisations have become particularly anti-science (more so than far-left) over the last 20 years.


    BitChute - Wikipedia


    BitChute (a portmanteau of "bit", a unit of information in computing, and "parachute"[1]) is an alt-tech video hosting service launched by Ray Vahey in January 2017.[2] It describes itself as offering freedom of expression,[3][4] while the service is known for accommodating far-right individuals and conspiracy theorists, and for hosting hate speech.[a][b] Some creators who use BitChute have been banned from YouTube; some others crosspost content to both platforms or post more extreme content only to BitChute.[5][16] Before its deprecation, BitChute claimed to use peer-to-peer WebTorrent technology for video distribution,[2] though this was disputed.[17][18]


    Deen Freelon and colleagues writing in Science characterised BitChute as among the alt-tech sites that are "dedicated to right-wing communities", and listed the site along with 4chan, 8chan, Parler, and Gab. They noted there are also more ideologically neutral alt-tech platforms, such as Discord and Telegram.[11] Joe Mulhall of the UK anti-racism group Hope Not Hate has categorised BitChute among the "bespoke platforms" for the far-right, which he defines as platforms which were created by people who themselves have "far-right leanings". He distinguishes these from "co-opted platforms" such as DLive and Telegram, which were adopted by the far-right due to minimal moderation but not specifically created for their use.[15]

    Why do all those corrupt government scientists keep on saying vaccines work better than prior infection at stopping COVID when we all know they don't?


    Ummm - well - I have always been a sucker for this line of proper questioning - now turned mostly into antivaxxer rhetoric, because vaccines do stop COVID better than prior infection. But it is a complex argument. I'll just give what I think are the key points that are needed for context.


    • NAbs (neutralising antibody) counts tell you quantitatively how well vaccines or prior infections neutralise virus
    • Relative counts reduction (between strains) is worse for vaccines - which were designed to be highly targeted - than for infection - but absolute values are much higher
    • Both vaccine and infection NAbs decay quite rapidly over time. Like Flu. Alas. It means COVID will go on recurring.
    • Although NAbs decays, after vaccination or prior infection the levels can be ramped up quicker. Not enough to prevent infection, but enough to make it less severe.
    • For severe infection what also matters is T-cell immunity. This is induced by both vaccine and prior infection and is much broader between strains.
    • NAbs and T-cell immunity from prior infection is very dependent on severity. "No pain no gain". If you have a light infection you get much less immunity than if you have a really serious nasty infection.
    • Multiple vaccinations restore NAbs and a bit more - but do not change the decay time constant. Relative to single vaccines they make future infection less severe by increasing the speed at which NAbs can be regenerated as well as priming T-cell immunity.
    • Multiple (mRNA) vaccines lead to increasing reactogenicity - a problem for those who are reactogenic, typically the young
    • Using population data to estimate relative effectiveness of vaccines vs infections in preventing future severe disease is now very complex because of all of the correlations between vaccination, illness, risk factors, prior infection. For example those who are ill have risk factors and are more likely to be vaccinated (or vaccinated more times etc).


    And for some really illuminating science about the numbers, which informs some of the above (the rest from stuff posted here over several years) we are again indebted to Mr. COVID data science


    Paper demonstrating Omicron's immune escape vs. vaccination and previous infection
    Biological researchers in Switzerland released a preprint in late December providing very useful information about the immune escape properties of Omicron vs.…
    www.covid-datascience.com

    I thought many here, following the anti-vaxxer rhetoric and, being fair-minded, would appreciate the following journalistic deconstruction of a paper claiming biological pathways for harm from mRNA vaccines.


    This is the "mRNA is bad for you" or - more specifically, "COVID spike mRNA is bad for you" anti-vaxxer meme. It is, to me, the most convincing strand of antivaxxer rhetoric. It seems so plausible. After all, mRNA in COVID vaccines is experimental, the vaccines had not been properly tested before its use.


    Let us ignore the thing that now changes that. We have had an enormous real-world test now, and the side-effects are very well understood both qualitatively and quantitatively. The balance, for young people where it is unclear, is between small numbers getting the very nasty MIS-C or nasty but not life-threatening long COVID, and smaller numbers getting pericarditis. That risk/benefit has been so well studied there is no room for fair-minded debate. Even if like many year you are inclined to believe in global conspiracies you have to be a full-blown tin-hat wearer to believe regulatory capture independently for every developed nation in the world for the benefit of Pfizer shareholders at the expense of the country's children.


    Let us look at a journalistic deconstruction. hat any person familiar with google and scientific phraseology, but without any medical specific, could do.


    In this case it is Mr. Data Science doing the deconstruction. He is undoubtedly a very competent scientist - whose job is to look at numbers and work out the diference between coincidence and some real effect over many different domains. That gives him an edge here but if you read his analysis you can ask: "how muhc of this is juts common sense".


    I'd be interested in how the antivaxxers posting here deal with this. All I need is a yes of no: "Yes - you agree this specific paper is rubbish in the sense that it is trying to make links that no-one would normally make and that are not supported", or "No - this is antivaxxer rhetoric with no scientific value".


    What interests me is how clearly some of the classic publication games (we all do them) play out. For example "self-citation" - who would not do this when it can be justified and ibcreaes ones own citation count? More tricky - in a review paper you self-cite another review paper (as here) and use that as claimed evidence for primary research claiming something. Ummm - not - that is not right. But review papers are a bit like opinion pieces, and you can find a jornal somehere that will publish pretty well anything.


    Does McCullough's paper really "establish a mechanistic framework" for mRNA vaccine harm?
    Peter McCullough & colleagues have just published a paper in Food and Chemical Toxicology that posits biological mechanisms underlying purported innate immune…
    www.covid-datascience.com


    This very long review article presents many details about various biological pathways, most related to cancer, but their links to mRNA vaccines are almost wholly speculative. In some cases, they link to other vaccines, old mRNA technology, or COVID-19 infection, but are not directly linked to mRNA vaccines.


    In fact, so much of their evidence is from papers on severe COVID-19 infections, not vaccination, much of the evidence in this article might be better suited to a paper pointing out potential downstream dangers of severe COVID-19 infections than on trying to raise alarm about mRNA vaccination.

    A number of places in the article seem to make stronger statements linking mRNA vaccines to some of these processes, but they self-cite a previous review article by senior author McCullough and do not reference any primary biological research making these connections.


    They suggest connections of these mechanisms to various anecdotal case reports for herpes zoster reactivation, liver damage, optic neuropathy, T cell lymphoma progression, Hepatitis C reactivation, events not yet confirmed to be related to mRNA vaccination.


    The paper amounts to laying out a series of hypotheses about mechanisms of harm that may come from mRNA vaccines. Hypothesis generation is a valuable exercise, including in this context of understanding downstream biological effects of vaccination that might induce harm.


    However, not all hypotheses are equally supported. Some are well-girded in direct evidence from relevant studies, while others are more speculative and extrapolate principles from other settings, e.g. SARS-CoV-2 infections or other injected vaccines, as done here.


    Mr. COVID data science does have ONE advantage over the rest of us. He is very good at data science which means that he can more easily than most of us understand the many VAERS data claims made by the antivaxxers and which extraordinarily make up a lot of this paper. In fact the VAERS data is the only part of it that (if it were correct) would represent real evidence.


    Read the article and ask yourself, “Are any of these points actually demonstrated in the article?"


    Scientists have detected, validated, and characterized various minority harm risks of vaccines, including anaphylaxis/myocarditis for mRNA vaccines, and VITT/GBS for viral vectors. Detection, validation, and characterization of any other risk is critically important. And deep characterization of the subgroups at highest risk of these serious complications, and of the severity and long-term effects of them needs to be highly prioritized research and considered in refining vaccination recommendations. Studies integrating information from existing literature to posit hypotheses explaining these harms and others are potentially useful, which this paper purports to do. However, the purported “mechanistic frameworks” laid out in this paper lack any documented connections to mRNA vaccines, instead linking them to other vaccines, old mRNA technologies, or COVID-19 infections and speculating connections to mRNA vaccines. This makes their hypotheses speculative at best.

    And you are a circuit jocky who thinks he is smarter and more informed than all. They do research, you do character assignations. You knew nothing of seneff before the pandemic and now you are an expert on her research. You are so see thru

    This is a misunderstanding. Unlike many here I admit to NOT being an expert on immunology.


    As such, I can recognise any fellow Computer Scientists who unlike me pretend to be that.


    You see, the beauty of the THH anti-vaxxer detection kit is that it does not require any evaluation of the science.


    Anti-vaxxers such as Seneff betray themselves by pontificating as experts on such a very wide range of disparate fields - with only the anti-vaxxer slant as common theme - that no sensible person who did their journalistic research would take them seriously. In addition they pontificate on fields wildly different from any training they have had (in this case Seneff is a Computer Scientist).


    You have continually misunderstood this about me. I have never claimed to be more expert than these clowns - or even as expert as they are.


    However it is clear that they are much less expert than they claim to be, and also much less expert than the many real experts who disagree with them. Therefore I cannot take them seriously.


    There is a well-known here equivalent. One reason many of us realised Rossi was a flake long ago is that if you believe him he must be an expert in some many different areas. One serendipitous world-shaking breakthrough - sure. But 5 - all in different areas of technology and science? It seems unlikely.

    And re RB's "paper" above - this is of course another example where THH's anti-vaxxer detection kit* works.


    Seneff, the lead author, is a prominent anti-vaxxer, and has no medical expertise. She is a Computer Scientist, working on HCI, language understanding, speech recognition.


    And, were she a medical scientist the extraordinarily variety of her claimed contributions to medical science, and the way that the historic ones have all been so completely debunked - again woudl trigger anti-vaxxer detection systems.


    THH


    * - ok - I can't really take credit, it is common sense and many others use it independently of me. I am juts popularising it on the thread where it seems almost unknown.

    And... another one.


    The Problem with Preprints
    Pre-print research papers circulate the internet prior to peer-review, fueling COVID-19 vaccine misinformation and conspiracies.
    www.isdglobal.org


    In late January 2022, a preprint scientific paper published on ResearchGate started circulating within online communities associated with COVID-19, vaccine-scepticism and conspiracy theories. The title reads, ‘Innate Immune Suppression by SARS-CoV-2 mRNA Vaccinations: The role of G-quadruplexes, exosomes and microRNAs’. The claims made in the abstract are quite scandalous. The research claims to prove that “vaccination, unlike natural infection, induces a profound impairment in type I interferon signaling, which has diverse adverse consequences to human health”. It continues by saying that they also identified “profound potential disturbances” related to the vaccine and that these could have a “potentially direct causal link” to a range of different health defects, including Bell’s Palsy, myocarditis, liver disease and DNA damage.

    The paper has four authors, including one name that might sound familiar given recent coverage of Joe Rogan’s platforming of COVID-19 and vaccine misinformation: Dr Peter McCullough. The paper is 35 pages long and contains over 200 citations. At a glance, it appears reputable. For those within COVID-19 and vaccine-sceptic communities, it seemed like the scientific research they were waiting for. Proof at last that the vaccines are doing more damage than good.

    In just three weeks, the paper was read almost 250,000 times on ResearchGate (a site used by academics and scientists to share research), shared across dozens of groups on Facebook and Telegram, and promoted by anti-vaccine influencers to hundreds of thousands of people. This paper is part of a wider trend observed by ISD where highly flawed ‘research’ published as preprints, undertaken by credentialed individuals with a clear bias against COVID-19 vaccines, is used to spread anti-vaccine and COVID-denial claims to an unwitting audience.

    Preprints are papers that have yet to go through the peer-review process, which is an integral element of any academic or scientific research. Peer-review normally takes place after a research paper is submitted to a journal for publication. Typically, the paper is sent out to a number of independent researchers in the same field who then scrutinise the work, including looking for flaws in the methodology, and assessing the validity of the claims laid out in the paper. The paper’s author(s) will then make revisions based on the peer-review process before the journal’s editor makes a decision on whether to publish it or not.

    I think here we are seeing more clearly Rossi's character. He is a true showman - somone who wants the plaudits of an audience - any audience - above all else.


    It would be sad except for the harm he has done to some others.

    At one point last month, children were admitted to Yale New Haven Children’s Hospital with a startling range of seven respiratory viruses. They had adenovirus and rhinovirus, respiratory syncytial virus and human metapneumovirus, influenza and parainfluenza, as well as the coronavirus — which many specialists say is to blame for the unusual surges.


    Why just now? And why just children? Children rely on innate immunity for which RNA therapy is immunosuppressive. So their body does not react on arrivals of new viruses in time.... See also:

    Worth pointing out the obvious multiple fallacies in the anti-vaxxer rhetoric (yes - this is that).


    We all know that an increase in all infectious diseases, and loss of immunity especially amongst young children who have never had it, is expected after lock-downs. And, yes, this is one of the many long-term costs we bear from lockdowns and how that trade-off goes is irrelevant. In democracies we count immediate danger far more than long-term disease or we would not so subsidise foods that are costing us billions in increased disease and shortening life expectancy. Equally, if we counted long-term disease we would have to treat the dangers of poverty as seriously as the dangers of a war, and states would act to protect populations from that even at a high cost.


    So this argument is specious. But I'm more interested in the other lie in this. (That is - I don't think Zephyr is lying - but I'm pretty sure some of the originators of this stuff are).


    It is obvious to any thinking person (the antivaxxers are not that) that RNA treatments are extraordinarily powerful. The injected RNA can express almost any protein using the machinery of the cells it goes into, in exactly the same way as an RNA virus (such as COVID, or Flu).


    Saying RNA treatment is immunosuppressive is like saying that organic molecules are poisonous. Well, some are, but they are also what we need to eat, and many are just inert.


    RNA treatment has actually been used to boost immune response against cancer cells (quote below from wikipedia)


    Recently, the new cancer immunotherapy, the combining of self-delivering RNA(sd-rxRNA) and adoptive cell transfer(ACT) therapy, was invented by RXi Pharmaceuticals and the Karolinska Institute. In this therapy, the sd-rxRNA eliminated the expression of immunosuppressive receptors and proteins in therapeutic immune cells so it improved the ability of immune cells to destroy the tumor cells. Then, the PD-1 targeted sd-rxRNA helped increasing the anti-tumor activity of tumor-infiltrating lymphocytes (TIL) against melanoma cells.[40][41] Based on this idea, the mRNA-4157 has been tested and passed phase I clinical trial.[42]

    Cytosolic nucleic acid-sensing pathways can enhance immune response to cancer. RIG-I agonist, stem loop RNA (SLR) 14. Tumor growth was significantly delayed and extended survival in mice. SLR14 improved antitumor efficacy of anti-PD1 antibody over single-agent treatment. SLR14 was absorbed by CD11b+ myeloid cells in the tumor microenvironment. Genes associated with immune defense were significantly up-regulated, along with increased CD8+ T lymphocytes, NK cells, and CD11b+ cells. SLR14 inhibited nonimmunogenic B16 tumor growth, leaving immune memory.[43]


    I'm not entirely how far the innate Luddism of anti-vaxxers extends. Maybe it depends on the person afflicted with this meme? Sure, just as with GMOs, RNA used medically is powerful, and with power comes danger. Just as with GMOs the danger is not in principle different from what exists anyway. GMOs mimic cross-species hybridisation. RNA therapies mimic RNA viruses - but with much less danger because they are not self-replicating or capable of evolving.


    The ire of the anti-vaxxers - in this case - descends on a pretty boring RNA vaccine - not a therapy. Vaccines do of course change the immune response, in the same way that a virus attack changes it but with fewer nasty side effects. Vaccines, other than their effect on the immune system - tend to have no long-term side effects because they are given in necessarily very small quantities.


    Anyway RNA vaccines are not immunosuppressive, far from it, except inasfar as anything that tunes the immune system to respond to a new agent changes it. They do not suppress innate immune response.


    Innate, like natural, are the sort of emotive words that anti-vaxxers like to use: "natural immunity" instead of "COVID survivor's immunity". As we now know (and knew already from Flu) survivors immunity is no panacea for COVID - Omicron BA4, BA5, as the Uk is now discovering, seems pretty resistant to it.


    T-cell immunity (which anti-vaxxers sometimes call natural immunity) is much broader than antibody-derived immunity. It is enhanced naturally after infection, and naturally (to a greater extent) after vaccination. And it is that which in the end determines whether you get seriously ill. (AB immunity, if good enough - stops you getting infected at all).


    We are lucky that the 1st gen COVID vaccines are broad enhance to give T-cell immunity against all lineages of COVID so far seen. It is why the very few people now not vaccinated are at higher risk of serious disease from omicron.


    I wish though more urgency and money was put into developing better vaccines. COVID may yet come back to bite us and we will then need them.


    THH

    The numbers at worldmeters are much lower. 12,000 cases per day. I wonder where the discrepancy is?


    https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/

    In the Uk testing is not encouraged, tests not free, PCR testing is expensive and limited.


    So official case numbers = PCR tests are << actual cases.


    The ONS survey does random sampling of population positivity from which (with a bit of effort) the population incidence (= case) rate can be estimated.


    I can't find any recent data for this but with steady-state if we assume people remain positive on average for say 14 days the daily incidence rate will be 14th of the positivity rate. In the community that is a daily incidence of 1/(45*14) = 130,000


    At the moment we are getting a sharp increase in infections, so the incidence will be higher than this steady-state figure.


    The reason is quite simple - almost everyone not vaccinated has had COVID - those at greatest risk have died.


    If by "narrative" you mean arguing that statistically those now vaccinated are at less risk than those now unvaccinated: fair enough, you are right.


    No scientists has ever made that argument.


    The argument is that getting vaccinated makes you safer - which is an entirely different one.


    A more subtle argument is the following:


    Conditional on having caught COVID and survived (N number of times, specify variants, specify when) how does vaccination as well affect personal safety going forward?


    You need to drill down a lot on data and do very careful analysis (what anti-vaxxers do not do) to get an answer to this interesting question. The problem being that the time elapsed from disease, or vaccination, matters, as does the variant you caught, and variant that is now circulating, as do age etc. All of these variables get mixed together in mots data sets and it is not easy to extract smaller effects from larger ones.


    And BTW I do not, in its generality, know the answer. In various simple forms there is good evidence that vaccination in addition to COVID survival is mildly (maybe halving risks) protective. Vaccination before COVID survival is strongly protective.


    Another complexity is that for mots people now the risks we care about are long COVID, not survival or severe disease. There is much less data on this and it is difficult to get reliable data for obvious reasons. My default would be that protection from long COVID correlates with protection from severe disease, but it is not easy to prove that.


    THH