Reuters is naming it, among others.
Fear and greed. Smart people trying to guess how bad it may be.
ZenoOfElea
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- Member since Jan 23rd 2017
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Posts by ZenoOfElea
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Still early days and figures all over the place. Depends what question you ask.
A total of 1,716 health workers have become infected and 5 have died (0.3%).
The same article says; The case fatality rate of COVID-19 appeared to be about 2.5 percent.
IMHO I guess the Diamond Princess cruise ship is not a source of normal stats for transmissibility because (as other members on this board have pointed out) it probably provides an artificial environment where the likelyhood of transmission is increased when people are trapped in a bubble and sharing the same air ventilation. However it may be a relatively reliable source of stats for fatality rate (although most "cruisers" are on the elder side of the bell curve).
Of course the stats are of great interest to those of us trying to get a handle on the magnitude of the threat, but each number represents an accumulation of personal tragedies and suffering.
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Fact; vaccines are not 100% safe. Neither is electricity or food or water.
Fact; vaccines can be botched, such as the dengvaxia mess in the Philippines.
Fact; nonetheless vaccines are one of the greatest healthcare inventions in human history and have saved may millions of lives.
Fact; repeated studies have found no link from vaccines to autism.
Fact; many people cannot be persuaded by facts.
Fortunately; current generations in the west do not have the experience (as my mother (91) and grandmother) of relatives suffering or dying from tuberculosis, polio, whooping cough etc. But this makes us dangerously complacent.
Unfortunately; the Internet is full of bad advice. Like climate change, or littering, people can say "What one person does (me) won't matter" but when millions opt out then it does matter. Measles is particularly infectious so that herd immunity needs 95% compliance.
I guess we could look at the Chinese central command system as a way to overcome wavering compliance. Infectious control professionals here in the UK have been marvelling at Chinese city level lockdowns and enforced travel bans. Such things would not be possible in the in the West. But then it was the Chinese system that stamped down on Dr Li Wenliang and possibly prevented news of the new corona virus from being picked up earlier.
Anyhoo I am going on a cruise the first week in March. Normally I would be looking forward, but under the circumstances
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https://phys.org/news/2020-01-…g-platinum-electrode.html
Atomic level changes to platinum electrode surfaces after repeated cycles of oxidation and reduction.
May be of interest to some.
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And to you Sam12.
Let us see what wonders and delights Rossi brings in the New Year.
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Interesting.
So obviously this is about funding\investment and this is explicit in the article.
But taking at face value; several months perhaps for next round of funding to enable commercialization in 24 months. So early 2022.
This is the first time I have read the word "commercialization" linked to any LENR project in such a concrete manner (including a timeline).
Other parties continue to hand wave or work in secrecy.
Is this what a starting pistol sounds(reads) like in the world of LENR?
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Yes, its Game Over for Woodford.
Very hard to believe that he went from being the best UK fund manager, over decades, to the worst for the last few years.
I mean a dip in performance is one thing, even a return to mean, but to go to from the top to the bottom needs a large amount of hubris and recklessness.
Clearly once he left Invesco Perpetual to set up on his own he became totally out of control.
Unfortunately Woodford was the only route I am aware of for the ordinary investor to buy into the possibly bright LENR future via Industrial Heat.
So now the attention turns to Industrial Heat.
It was stated that they will be launching another round of funding in the near future, but it looks like Woodford's funds will need to dump their IH shares.
So this could potentially have a negative effect on the valuation of any funding round that IH want to launch.
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ROSSI
2016 Rossi is making a big noise.
Articles are being written about him.
He has the attention of scientists.
He is in partnership with Industrial Heat.
There is $100 million dollars on offer.
It was one of the Rossi articles that first brought my attention to LENR.
2019 Rossi has no sign at all of any factory, employees or customers.
No sign of any partnership with any financial backer.
Instead he is making puppet shows in his condo.
WHAT A CLOWN!
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WOODFORD
2016 Woodford is a legend. He has been a very successful fund manager for decades.
He has 3 funds under his management including the latest Woodford Patient Capital Trust set up in 2015.
Personally I invested in WPCT. The upside seemed strong. The downside, I mean the guy had a track record second to none in the UK.
2019 After three years of non-stop bad news, lamentable stockpicking and questionable management strategies (including excessive gearing) Woodfords largest fund is gated and the other two are worth less than half of their original value.
I finally ran out of patience and sold the last of my WPCT shares a couple of weeks ago, taking a 50% loss BOO HOO!
Woodford's reputation is in tatters having lost many millions of pounds of investors cash.
WHAT A CLOWN!
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DARDEN
2016 Darden and Industrial Heat get involved with Rossi and Woodford. A match made in hell.
2017 After a trip to the divorce courts Darden and Rossi go their separate ways.
2019 WPCT interim report (out today) gives us the latest update on Industrial Heat. "The company has remained focused on further testing in September and October, with a funding round expected to follow thereafter."
Well I can't see Woodford finding any spare cash to take part in the next IH funding round.
So will Darden produce the goods or will he turn out to be the third clown in this three ring circus?
WATCH THIS SPACE!
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Interesting paper on unexpected behaviour of iridium applied in super thin structures on nickel.
Not sure how much this applies to platinum but iridium is a member of the platinum family.
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From a laymans point of view, have there been any updates or announcements or gossip on the status of the projects run by Gates, Anthropocene, IH or any others in respect of meaningful progress to market, or is everything going to go dark again for another year?
While the science and ensuing technical debates are interesting in themselves, many who follow LENR are hoping for a product that will make a significant impact.
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"All these fifty years of conscious brooding have brought me no nearer to the answer to the question, 'What are light quanta?' Nowadays every Tom, Dick and Harry thinks he knows it, but he is mistaken." (Albert Einstein, 1954)
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Boooooh Woodford
Boooooh Darden
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Has autocorrect changed LENR to "Ellie and I are".
Obviously AI is not convinced LENR is a thing.
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Well that is the risk of investing in unicorns.
My wife told me today that a rhino is just a unicorn that has let itself go.
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Going by past experience; e.g. the craziiness around the dot com bubble, it is likely that if cold fusion does get a breakthrough replication that convinces the mainstream and media then things will go crazy again.
Any entities linked to cold fusion, however tangentially, could see their values increasing hugely, whether that increase is justified or not.
So IH could still benefit given such a scenario.
Or alternatively IH may pull a rabbit out of the hat ... or not.
But whatever information Link is basing its revision on it seems the IH progress is not going as well as expected.
But whatever happens is likely to be too late for Woodford and probably his shareholders.
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You need to understand that unquoted investments are valued according to the most recent equity investment. In a stock such as IH that bears little relationship to progress and more to whether one specific investor is willing to pay more to buy in. So, basically, you should ignore the IH pricing as any measure of progress until such time as their stock is liquid or they have a less speculative future income stream.
THH
Yes, I sort of do understand that. So if the last round of shares in 2018 was at a much higher value then the value of the previous issued shares would go up (albeit they would also be diluted by the new share issue).
But, but, but. Those shareholders must have seen some evidence of value, albeit that evidence could have just been words in a letter, or a pitch by Darden.
Likewise the new statement by Link suggests there was some expectation of progress which has now failed to materialise.
So there is some notion of a process to market and a timeline.
Its just that its all a bit loose and could turn out to be never.
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"Less than a year ago, Link dramatically marked up the value of Woodford’s holding in the unquoted company by 357 per cent. Link said its revaluation of Industrial Heat “considered that the company’s development had not progressed at the rate upon which previous reviews were based”.
A Woodford spokesperson said: “Woodford is not responsible for unquoted valuations across any of its funds."
It has become clear, after a catalogue of poor stock picking, that Woodfords due diligence is fantasy. We probably knew this after the Rossi fiasco.
Additionally the valuations of the shares they bought is nothing to do with Woodford.
The valuations are the responsibility of Link
But how do Link put a value on IH
On what was the previous 357 percent based
How much do they know about what IH is doing
Have they popped in and had tea with Darden
Was the cup of tea produced using cold fusion
Sounds like this is also based on fantasy valuations.
No wonder they call such investments "unicorns".
So if the latest status update is disappointing then not much chance of good news from IH at ICCF22 in two weeks.
I am currently working on a project to produce flying pigs. But things are not progressing at the rate I hoped so I will be selling shares at only 300 percent mark up on the base value.
The base value is based on research I carried out while dreaming and assumes a market for flying pigs of 28 gazillion quatloos.
More seriously, in actual fact the stock markets are currently full of such fantasy valuations. Which is one of the reasons why a large market drop is looking increasingly likely.
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Maybe I have this wrong but it seems like the Nagel presentation on LEAP (funded by the Anthropocene Institute) is going down a similar road to Google.
The search for "an experiment that reproducibly produces LENR energy with good signal-to-noise ratios."
Perhaps that approach is the product of a certain mindset, one that works well in business and Silicon Valley in particular.
However the last few weeks seem to have shown us that there is currently no such experiment.
Storms and others have suggested rather than search for a winner we need a careful and detailed process to be mapped out to understand the necessary conditions for LENR.
On the other hand presumably Nagel knows what he is doing. -
Woodford sold £1.75m (60%) of his personal WPCT shares a few weeks ago.
If he had any expectation of good news in the near future from IH then I presume he would not have sold.
However it is possible he is a forced seller, the articles state he needed to sell for tax purposes.
It is also possible he does not have a clue about IH or any of his other investments, the recent evidence seems to support this view.
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Thanks Ruby, brought back memories.
I remember sci-fi from the 50s and earlier all seemed to be about exploration and conquest.
Late 60s and then 70s it all seemed to go into a dystopian nightmare of authoritatian world governments, the dark side of technology, and overpopulation and environmental crises; Soylent Green, Logan's Run etc.
There were a few who were more upbeat, I was a big fan of Larry Niven's work.
Ironic that science fiction is supposed to be about the future but is really about the present, reflecting cultural issues of the time when it is created.
As a youngster I loved TinTin landing on the Moon and was inspired by Apollo 11. It seemed we would be on Mars before 2000.
After 50 years of neglect humans on the Moon may be back on the agenda.
Meanwhile our scientific knowledge has grown exponentially with the triumph of robotic probes visiting every planet in the solar system and the discovery of extra solar planets.
