Posts by ZenoOfElea

    From a laymans point of view, have there been any updates or announcements or gossip on the status of the projects run by Gates, Anthropocene, IH or any others in respect of meaningful progress to market, or is everything going to go dark again for another year?

    While the science and ensuing technical debates are interesting in themselves, many who follow LENR are hoping for a product that will make a significant impact.

    "All these fifty years of conscious brooding have brought me no nearer to the answer to the question, 'What are light quanta?' Nowadays every Tom, Dick and Harry thinks he knows it, but he is mistaken." (Albert Einstein, 1954)

    Going by past experience; e.g. the craziiness around the dot com bubble, it is likely that if cold fusion does get a breakthrough replication that convinces the mainstream and media then things will go crazy again.

    Any entities linked to cold fusion, however tangentially, could see their values increasing hugely, whether that increase is justified or not.

    So IH could still benefit given such a scenario.


    Or alternatively IH may pull a rabbit out of the hat ... or not.

    But whatever information Link is basing its revision on it seems the IH progress is not going as well as expected.


    But whatever happens is likely to be too late for Woodford and probably his shareholders.

    ZenoOfElea


    You need to understand that unquoted investments are valued according to the most recent equity investment. In a stock such as IH that bears little relationship to progress and more to whether one specific investor is willing to pay more to buy in. So, basically, you should ignore the IH pricing as any measure of progress until such time as their stock is liquid or they have a less speculative future income stream.


    THH


    Yes, I sort of do understand that. So if the last round of shares in 2018 was at a much higher value then the value of the previous issued shares would go up (albeit they would also be diluted by the new share issue).


    But, but, but. Those shareholders must have seen some evidence of value, albeit that evidence could have just been words in a letter, or a pitch by Darden.

    Likewise the new statement by Link suggests there was some expectation of progress which has now failed to materialise.

    So there is some notion of a process to market and a timeline.

    Its just that its all a bit loose and could turn out to be never.

    "Less than a year ago, Link dramatically marked up the value of Woodford’s holding in the unquoted company by 357 per cent.

    Link said its revaluation of Industrial Heat “considered that the company’s development had not progressed at the rate upon which previous reviews were based”.

    A Woodford spokesperson said: “Woodford is not responsible for unquoted valuations across any of its funds."


    It has become clear, after a catalogue of poor stock picking, that Woodfords due diligence is fantasy. We probably knew this after the Rossi fiasco.

    Additionally the valuations of the shares they bought is nothing to do with Woodford. ;)

    The valuations are the responsibility of Link:!:

    But how do Link put a value on IH:?:

    On what was the previous 357 percent based:?:

    How much do they know about what IH is doing:?:

    Have they popped in and had tea with Darden:?:

    Was the cup of tea produced using cold fusion:?:

    Sounds like this is also based on fantasy valuations.

    No wonder they call such investments "unicorns".


    So if the latest status update is disappointing then not much chance of good news from IH at ICCF22 in two weeks.:sleeping:


    I am currently working on a project to produce flying pigs. But things are not progressing at the rate I hoped so I will be selling shares at only 300 percent mark up on the base value.

    The base value is based on research I carried out while dreaming and assumes a market for flying pigs of 28 gazillion quatloos.


    More seriously, in actual fact the stock markets are currently full of such fantasy valuations. Which is one of the reasons why a large market drop is looking increasingly likely.

    Maybe I have this wrong but it seems like the Nagel presentation on LEAP (funded by the Anthropocene Institute) is going down a similar road to Google.

    The search for "an experiment that reproducibly produces LENR energy with good signal-to-noise ratios."

    Perhaps that approach is the product of a certain mindset, one that works well in business and Silicon Valley in particular.


    However the last few weeks seem to have shown us that there is currently no such experiment.

    Storms and others have suggested rather than search for a winner we need a careful and detailed process to be mapped out to understand the necessary conditions for LENR.


    On the other hand presumably Nagel knows what he is doing.

    Woodford sold £1.75m (60%) of his personal WPCT shares a few weeks ago.

    If he had any expectation of good news in the near future from IH then I presume he would not have sold.


    However it is possible he is a forced seller, the articles state he needed to sell for tax purposes.

    It is also possible he does not have a clue about IH or any of his other investments, the recent evidence seems to support this view.

    Thanks Ruby, brought back memories.


    I remember sci-fi from the 50s and earlier all seemed to be about exploration and conquest.

    Late 60s and then 70s it all seemed to go into a dystopian nightmare of authoritatian world governments, the dark side of technology, and overpopulation and environmental crises; Soylent Green, Logan's Run etc.

    There were a few who were more upbeat, I was a big fan of Larry Niven's work.


    Ironic that science fiction is supposed to be about the future but is really about the present, reflecting cultural issues of the time when it is created.


    As a youngster I loved TinTin landing on the Moon and was inspired by Apollo 11. It seemed we would be on Mars before 2000.


    After 50 years of neglect humans on the Moon may be back on the agenda.

    Meanwhile our scientific knowledge has grown exponentially with the triumph of robotic probes visiting every planet in the solar system and the discovery of extra solar planets.

    Or you could write a book:!:

    Yes I know Jed and some others have written books already about cold fusion but the current interest in the topic is low.

    Once it hits prime time then the world will wake up and there will be a huge appetite for books, probably serviced by authors who did not know anything about cold fusion till a few weeks before they wrote the book.

    So Jed it could be your big chance to tell the real cold fusion story to the massed public.

    As we have seen with Trump and Brexit many people are not too interested in loads of facts, just a good story with goodies and baddies that is topical and explains how they personally will benefit from the "new golden age".

    Oh and maybe lots of pictures .:/

    Journalists, politicians, and financial talking heads are all queueing up to attack Woodford like a giant pinata filled with money (well not as much money as was hoped for).

    At some point legislative bodies will probably start to get involved, shutting the stable door, as usual, long after the horse has made a mess in the kitchen.


    As I said earlier, the super star has been made into a pantomime villain.

    Polarisation is how the media works, grey areas are boring lets go straight from one extreme to the other.

    All these people are looking for any information or story to use as a weapon.

    Unfortunately because LENR is so controversial it makes a great angle to attack Woodford as being delusional.


    After the Rossi fiasco IH tried to keep a low profile (apart from Dewey of course ;)), I would guess in part because they are dealing with proprietary research belonging to various parties that they need to keep confidential.

    But also because of the skepticism and even maliciousness (Jed's word) that would be unleashed against IH.

    So this whole Woodford toxic bun fight is risky for IH. I imagine they do not want to be dragged into it.


    [Hmmm my metaphors are a bit weekendy; "toxic bun fight"; I might have to think about editing that.]

    JedRothwell ; REALLY!


    Google spent millions, and a group of researchers spent several years or their lives, as part of a conspiracy against LENR.


    What has LENR done lately that would inspire such measures, have amazing advances been made that are threatening to certain parties that we dare not name?


    Have I wandered onto ECat World by mistake?!?


    No doubting that Nature took the opportunity with both hand and both hatchets to further sneer at LENR.


    But LENR is currently not showing any signs of going anywhere, or do you suppose that Google and Nature are reading this forum and are concerned that there may be certain signs of progress. REALLY!


    I personally think Trevithick is sincere, and not part of the deep state apparatus.


    I could come up with several theories to explaining Google and their actions, but what is the point, they need to speak for themselves. And in that I agree with you.

    I also agree with McKubre that maybe we should be grateful to Google, potentially.


    Google need to communicate. But it almost looks like we are putting Google on trial. Things need to open up, not close down.


    By the way; this is the Woodford\IH thread, not the Google so probably should be moved.

    Well yes, I have previously highlighted my concerns over the Woodford "due diligence" and particularly as regards the IH investment.

    Woodford claimed at the start that he and his team did two and a half years due diligence before investing in IH.

    Sounds good, sounds careful, on the face of it.

    But if IH got Rossi so badly wrong and they were working closely with him, then what kind of due diligence could Woodford do?


    I would expect that it was Darden that approached Woodford for funding.

    Certainly Woodford knew Darden well and they may even be friends. That comes back to some of the current criticisms Woodford is receiving for relying on the "cosy" factor in his business dealings.

    Certainly some of Woodford's team flew to the USA and met IH and met Rossi and travelled around various places.

    I would be surprised if Woodford had tried speaking to scientists with relevant experience in LENR.

    I would be surprised if he directly had communications with any of the profs who have supported Rossi.

    I doubt he or his team had any real technical understanding of LENR and the difficulties in finding heat.

    So I suspect Woodford relied on the IH "due diligence". That does not really sound like due diligence to me when you rely on the company you are investing in to provide the "due diligence".

    Anyway time will tell.

    I also am not an expert but my reading is that, while the facts have not changed the sentiment has changed radically.

    Because Woodford was seen as an investment star over decades, who took contrarian strategies but ultimately was successful, this has exaggerated the confidence (or faith) that investors put into him.

    Events that would have been red flags against run of the mill funds had a blind eye turned to them.

    However the nervousness has increased until the redemptions have forced Woodford to gate the fund.


    So now it is exploding all across the media.

    Journalists are making hay with this story, and it is a big story.

    So in my view the sentiment has changed and yesterday’s hero has become today’s pantomime villain.

    Facts and reality can go out the window. Investor greed has turned to fear.

    This is like a run on a bank. Nobody wants to be stuck at the end asking for their money back when all the good stuff has been sold and only the junk is left.

    This will likely be a process over some months, due to the size, but I think this fund is dead.

    The spill over is affecting his other funds. The Woodford brand is becoming toxic.



    Additionally all Woodfords investing colleagues are distancing themselves and sharpening their knives.

    They fear that the negative sentiment will cause many average Joe investors to think twice before giving their savings to Fund Managers to manage. These guys pay themselves a big bonus from the profits when things go well and still take a hefty fee even when things go badly.

    So it is in their interest to try to turn Woodford into some kind of crazy, villain and not at all like the normal, professional, prudent, over-remunerated fund manager.


    What will happen to his other funds is a matter of some debate online. Can they be saved or not?