Posts by JedRothwell

Quote from Fm1

Let me add, some counties in Florida did issue mask mandates, they had higher deaths and hospilitations than the ones that had no mask mandate. Not complex at all!

Does it occur to you that they issued mandates because they had higher deaths? The causality is reversed. Rural districts with low population density in places like upstate New York and Yamaguchi prefecture did not need mandates because they had so few cases. Atlanta must have masking or we will have mass death. I probably encounter more people close up going to the grocery store or the park than my friends in Yamaguchi encounter in a year. Furthermore, just about everyone you meet in rural Yamaguchi lives there. There are no outsiders. They closed down the towns and stopped the tourist trade.

However, the situation has changed. With the Delta variant, rural districts in south Georgia now suddenly have so many cases, they have to close the schools. It is a defacto lockdown. It is caused by people not getting vaccinated.

Quote from Fm1

Georgia and Florida, you are a drama queen, check which states lead in death per100,000

That is for the entire pandemic starting in 2020. For the last several months, Georgia and Florida have had many more cases and deaths than other states.

Quote from Mark U

I choose the Swedish route. Schools open, no mask mandates, no vaccination mandates, no lockdowns. The people can act freely according to their view of risk.

Yes, that is also the Georgia and Florida route. It has killed over 600,000 so far, and it will kill tens of thousands more, plus it has ruined the lives of hundreds of thousands with long haul effects. Sweden has had the same result, per capita. 8,000 dead people in Sweden, 7,000 of them unnecessarily. That's a great route! Sort of the 1871 Great Chicago Fire urban renewal project.

People can act freely, until they are put into a medically induced coma with a tube down their throats.

Quote from Fm1

The Obesity Crisis Was Already Bad & COVID-19 Raised the Risks Further: Why Don’t Health Leaders Talk About This Publicly?

They talk about it CONSTANTLY. The CDC and other public health sites have hundreds of pages of information about this. They have been pleading with the public to reduce weight for decades.

Quote from Mark U

A mere 21 percent reduction of an already low number of cases, almost all of which are at most mildly symptomic, PALES in comparison to the social detriments of forcing a child to mask, depriving them of the facial cues of their classmates and interfering with their breathing.

You are citing imaginary problems. Childhood COVID is very serious, and very dangerous. Roughly as dangerous as polio. The long term effect may make it even more dangerous. Masks do not interfere with breathing. Depriving people of facial clues for a year or causes no harm. Anyway, if you believe any of this nonsense, you should be strong in favor of vaccination, which will solve these problems. Yet you oppose them as well.

Quote from Fm1

As for schools, again I have no problem with kids wearing masks but one mask for 7 hours a day, day after day is insane!!!

Why would they do that?!? Who does that? The ones I use are like paper kleenexes. They get wet after a while, so I toss 'em out and put on another.

I get that the n95 ones are expensive and have to be washed. So, take 2 or 3 and change them during the day. Or several cloth ones.

Quote from THHuxleynew

It is also why W's "if you are healthy and young you have no risk" suggestions don't work.

I do not know about COVID, but with other viral infections being especially healthy, fit and young puts you in more danger. The 1918 pandemic killed more young people than old. The immediate cause of death was an allergic reaction to the disease, and this reaction was stronger in healthy people. It also tended to kill elderly, sick, and weak people with comorbidities, as any disease does. In other words, it killed people at both ends of the spectrum: weak and strong.

I do not know whether COVID tends to kill fit people. Perhaps that has not yet been established. The previous variants did not kill many young people, but there are indications Delta does.

Quote from Mark U

Speaking of which, those health bureaucrats lauded by THH and Jed and Zeus for mask mandates and lockdowns, I hope they get to digest the preprint out of Brown University on Rhode Island. Researchers report a 21 point drop in IQ in roughly 100 children less than 5 years of age since Covid started, compared to the decade previous.

This is why we must vaccinate more people, wear masks, and do everything else we can to avoid lockdowns and school closings. In two south Georgia counties, where only ~30% of the population has been vaccinated, schools opened a week ago and then abruptly had to close because so many students became infected with COVID. They will remain closed for at least until Sep. 7. It is tragic. Totally avoidable.

https://www.11alive.com/article/news/education/two-georgia-school-systems-suspend-face-to-face-instruction-ware-long/85-5a9476cb-062a-4cfb-98a4-9403ffe138dc

In Atlanta a much higher fraction of the population has been vaccinated, including school students over age 12. Masks have to be worn in schools and stores. So, we will probably avoid lockdowns.

If you are opposed to lockdowns and you do not want to destroy the schools and the economy, you must be in favor of vaccination. Lockdowns or vaccination are your only two options.

In Dallas, Texas, if your child gets a serious case of COVID, he or she will have to wait for another child to die before getting ICU care. There are no more pediatric ICU beds available. Again, it is a stark choice: vaccinations, or hundreds of dead children, and tens of thousands of dead adults. Which do you choose?

'Your child will wait for another child to die.' Amid Covid-19 surge, Dallas County has no pediatric ICU beds left, county judge says

Covid-19 cases and hospitalizations are surging and in Dallas County, Texas, there are "zero ICU beds left for children," county judge Clay Jenkins said in a…

www.cnn.com

Regarding W's assertion that he both has and has not been vaccinated:

Quote from THHuxleynew

Somone else can reconcile these two statements, I hope?

Quantum superposition.

Quote from THHuxleynew

OK - I agree we can stop spread with good case tracking - but that is only possible with lowish infection rates.

Case tracking would be great, but as you say the numbers may be too high. Fortunately, rapid do-it-yourself tests are now widely available, so people can find out they have COVID and self-quarantine. They can also do some personal case tracking. They can inform their friends and keep an eye on their own family.

In other words, to some extent, do-it-yourself tests can substitute for case tracking.

The pharmacist told me these do-it-yourself tests are easier to administer than the 2020 tests. Less painful. They cost $23 to $35. The tests at clinics are still free as far as I know, so they might be better for poor people.

Quote from Shane D.

Most kids who test for COVID though are asymptomatic. Many, if not most, of the kids in the hospital are there because they are sick from RSV, then test positive for COVID.

If so, they must be infected in the hospital. (They are nosocomial, or HAI.) Has the author confirmed this? Is there data showing that many patients are infected by COVID in hospitals, and many pediatric patients are? I wouldn't know, but if that is what the author is saying, he should cite data to back it up.

Quote from Shane D.

The author did say these children may be getting COVID from the hospital. That does not make sense to me. I do not agree with all he says. He could have left that out, and done himself a favor. As it is, he distracted from his good investigative reporting.

It does not make sense to you?? What else could it mean? How can you not agree? If people do not have COVID when they go into the hospital with RSV, and then later during their stay they develop COVID, they must have been infected by someone or some surface in the hospital. It has to be nosocomial, by definition.

Quote from Shane D.

Also, it is a fact hospitals get paid much more for a COVID patient, than one with RSV.

Where did you read that? In Atlanta, the hospitals say they are paid less for COVID patients than for other diseases. They are losing money. They are anxious to get back to other more profitable procedures.

Are you sure pediatric RSV in particular pays less? If so, perhaps that is because it is a mild disease that does not call for as many expensive drugs or full time nursing. The only time I was in the hospital, with pneumonia, they gave me mostly over-the-counter drugs (at an inflated price) and looked in several times a day, but they did not have to do much. It could not have cost them much. A person can drop dead from pneumonia in an hour, so the hospital is the place to be, but a mild case does not require intensive care.

Quote from Shane D.

So how many of these children are in the hospital as a result of being sickened by RSV, but tested positive after admission (all children are tested), and then classified as a "patient with COVID"? It takes a brave soul to challenge the narrative nowadays, but here is one:

Well, if they test positive for COVID, surely that means they have COVID? A COVID test would not accidentally come out positive because the patient has RSV, would it?

Perhaps you -- or the author -- means they got COVID from the hospital? Nosocomial infections. That is what the author seems to be saying: "Now, it doesn’t take a genius to realize that a large number of kids who come to the hospital for RSV in the South will wind up getting COVID in the hospital." I wouldn't know about that, but I think the author should check to see how many other patients are getting nosocomial COVID, and how many RSV pediatric patients have been in hospitals with no COVID patients. There have not been many pediatric COVID cases until recently.

The author also says: "Thus, the 'experts' rejected God’s gift of partial immunity from COVID . . ." That gift is also known as severe illness, long haul disability, or death. God's gift indeed! Not your Christian god though. More like Thanatos.

It would not take a brave soul to assert that a positive COVID test really means the patient has RSV and not COVID, which seems to be what this says. That would be a confused soul.

Quote from Navid

Dr Ashish Jha is a Great Reset sell out. He's a national lampoon.

I am relieved to hear you think so! That is proof he is reliable.

(In programming terms: The truth value of your assertions is inverted. It is a built-in function. X always converts to NOT X. There is a different built in function for Mark U. and Wyttenbach. Assertion X ==> (goes to) Word Salad imaginary Science.)

Quote from Fm1

Horowitz: Why won’t our government even inform people about importance of vitamin D?

That's a dumb question. Answer: Because it is not well established, and if it turns out vitamin D does no good in the treatment of COVID, the government researchers who recommended it would be hauled before Congress and pillaried in the mass media. Heck, they are pillaried even when they give rock-solid, 100% good advice such as: Wear a mask. Get vaccinated.

The government does recommend vitamin D milk, and the CDC recommends vitamin D, especially for children:

Vitamin D - Infant and Toddler Nutrition

Your child vitamin D to grow healthy and strong. Learn more here.

www.cdc.gov

The CDC reports that researchers do not agree on what the optimum uptake of vitamin D should be. They should say that. We want them to tell us when the experts are not sure, or when they don't agree. Since the experts do not agree about vitamin D and COVID, the CDC should take no position.

https://www.cdc.gov/nutritionreport/99-02/pdf/nr_ch2b.pdf

QUOTE:

Still, what constitutes the optimal intake of vitamin D remains a matter of some disagreement. Current recommendations from the Institute of Medicine (1997) call for 200 international units (IU) [5.0 micrograms (µg)] of vitamin D daily from birth through age 50, 400 IU (10 µg) for those aged 51–70 years, and 600 IU (15 µg) for those older than 70 years. According to the Dietary Guidelines for Americans (U.S. Department of Health and Human Services and U.S. Department of Agriculture 2005) older adults, people with dark skin, and people exposed to insufficient UV B radiation should consume extra vitamin D from vitamin D-fortified foods or supplements. The American Cancer Society Guidelines on Nutrition and Physical Activity for Cancer Prevention echo this recommendation (Kushi 2006). Some experts say that optimal amounts for all adults are closer to 800–1000 IU (20–25 µg) daily (Vieth 2007; BischoffFerrari 2006; Dawson-Hughes 2005). The tolerable upper intake level for vitamin D is 2000 IU (50 µg) per day in North America and in Europe; however, some scientists are calling for an upward revision (Hathcock 2007; Vieth 2006).

What more do you want them to say? "Ignore the advice of experts. Take vitamin D because some people think it might work, even though others don't. You are on your own, bro! Hey, just do whatever some anonymous person on the internet recommends. Heck, do what Trump recommended, and drink disinfectants. It's all good."

Quote from Fm1

Dr. Ashish Jha, dean of the Brown University School of Public Health categorizes the likelihood that delta makes kids sicker as a "maybe."

You gotta love that guy! That's what a scientist should say. Even better: "I don't know yet. Nobody knows."

Quote from Fm1

What's not clear is whether kids are getting any sicker with delta than with other variants.

"Right now, it's speculative," he said.

How do we slow spread of delta variant? Get vaccinated, experts say.

It's extremely difficult to show whether one variant is more virulent than another, said Dr. Rick Malley, an infectious disease specialist at Boston Children's Hospital.

Quote from Fm1

His hospital has not had an increase in cases, though he added, "I don't know if I should say 'yet.'"

Good again! Well said. It frustrates the public when scientists say stuff like that, but it gives me confidence they know what they are talking about. Or, I should say, they know that they do not know what they are talking about yet, and they are not pretending they do.

William Randolph Hearst once sent Percival Lowell a telegraph asking him to write an editorial:

IS THERE LIFE ON MARS CABLE THOUSAND WORDS PREPAID

Lowell sent back:

NOBODY KNOWS NOBODY KNOWS NOBODY KNOWS NOBODY KNOWS NOBODY KNOWS NOBODY KNOWS NOBODY KNOWS NOBODY KNOWS NOBODY KNOWS . . .

. . . repeated 500 times.

Quote from Fm1

9,969 Fully Vaccinated People Contract COVID-19 In Massachusetts, 106 Dead

That's good! Think of how many more there would be if they were not vaccinated. Probably thousands of dead, instead of 106. I expect those 106 people were very ill from other diseases or old age. That has been the pattern with fatal COVID breakthrough cases in vaccinated people. A bad cold might have killed them.

In Florida, 80 people die every day, nearly all unvaccinated. The population is 3 times larger, so that's about the equivalent of all vaccinated case mortality in Massachusetts every 4 days.

The stats show how effective vaccines and masks are:

Florida, 60% fully vaccinated, ~90 died yesterday

Massachusetts, 75% fully vaccinated, 10 died yesterday

As noted in the article:

“Breakthrough cases in Massachusetts are incredibly low, and those hospitalized or who have died are even lower,” department officials said in a statement, as reported by NBC Boston. “All available data continues to support that all three vaccines used in the US are highly protective against severe disease and death from all known variants of COVID-19. The best way to protect yourself and your loved ones is to get vaccinated.”

Quote from JedRothwell

Interesting concept!

That's one of my favorite lines, from the movie "IQ," about Einstein. Einstein says it in this clip, at 1:40. I'll bet he would say that! This is a realistic portrait of Scientists I Have Known. Other great lines in this clip: "He doesn't look like a scientist." "And now, this is a tie. This is to hold up your pants."

Quote from Zeus46

Who cares? …“It’s their funeral”, as it were. At some point it becomes more about keeping those with a higher chance of being infectious away from the immunocompromised.

Well . . . I care because these people are a gigantic petri dish producing new and possibly more dangerous variants. Also they are making life miserable for me. I was hoping to go to a wedding and a conference and some other events this year, but they are cancelled. I cannot even go to an indoor restaurant. It is unlikely I will get a serious case, but as Ashish Jha put it, I don't want to risk getting sick for two weeks just to eat in a restaurant. That would be like going to a restaurant that you know has a filthy kitchen and a high rate of food poisoning.

We can't keep these people away from immunocompromised. They refuse to stay away. We can't even get them to wear masks in the grocery store! We cannot keep them away from me, and I resent that.

Quote from Zeus46

Let the anti-vaxxers exclusively live together, and exclusively date each other, as your link suggested is happening. What’s the worst that can happen?

The worst that can happen is they incubate a new variant that kills 10% of patients, mainly children, and that the vaccines do not protect against. There are other nightmare scenarios.

They do live together to some extent, in Georgia. I am glad I live in a Democratic district. But they are not exclusively enough. Plus come to our grocery stores unmasked, which irks me. We don't go screaming in their faces, the way they do when people wear masks in their stores. The other day they did that to some poor woman who has cancer and is immunocompromised. We do not go blocking their cars, threatening them, spitting on them, * and saying "We know who you are! We know where you live!"

The anti-vaxx GOP people shouting about mandates and pressure are projecting. They are the ones forcing others to follow their tribal laws. They are threatening us, not the other way around.

Quoting the article I linked to above:

“We know from vaccine distribution maps that low vaccination rates are clustered in specific areas of the country. We also know that oftentimes, people from similar backgrounds who are embedded within a social network may hold similar beliefs, including mistrust about COVID vaccine safety or efficacy,” explained Melissa J. Basile, PhD, medical anthropologist at the Feinstein Institutes for Medical Research in Manhasset, New York.

Basile told Healthline that, within certain communities, “negative information about the vaccine is being circulated that is leading people within that community to not trust the science behind the vaccine in the first place.”

“While there may be social pressure in some case, both for and against vaccination, unless it’s an extreme circumstance, people who want the vaccine will find a way to get it,” she added.

[NOT TRUE, I am afraid . . . Not according to local news sources here in Georgia. Also, as pointed out in this article, many parents are preventing children under 18 from getting vaccinated.]

Dr. Timothy Brewer, professor of epidemiology at the UCLA Fielding School of Public Health and of Medicine, told Healthline that “one of the tragedies of the pandemic and our national response to the pandemic” is how politicized basic protective healthcare measures became.

From the start of the pandemic in the United States, wearing a protective face mask became a political statement, and, eventually, getting a vaccination became a political statement.

Brewer, who also is a member of the division of infectious diseases at the David Geffen School of Medicine at UCLA, said that actions that are common sense for protecting oneself and the surrounding community became charged in our current cable news- and social media-driven national political echo chambers.

He cited the irony that no one is waging mass protests over other common vaccinations.

“Nobody is taking to the streets and saying the government is trying to shove tetanus vaccines down our throats,” Brewer told Healthline.

[ALSO, the claims by GOP politicians that we have never forced people to vaccinate are nonsense. We force all children to vaccinate.]

* Granted, spitting wouldn't work for us. It is no threat. Our spit is not dangerous. We are not infected. Also, people who get vaccinated tend to be fastidious and health conscious about things like spitting. They are fuddy-duddy conformists who obey speed limits and do not litter. Spitting is not our style.

Quote from THHuxleynew

People who were unvaccinated had a three-fold higher prevalence than those who had received both doses of a vaccine, at 1.21% compared to 0.40%. However both of these represent more than a five-fold increase compared to the previous round (0.24%, 0.07%, respectively). Based on these data, the researchers estimate that fully vaccinated people in this testing round had between around 50% to 60% reduced risk of infection, including asymptomatic infection, compared to unvaccinated people.

That's good. It will be even better with a booster vaccine engineered to target the Delta variant.

Unless a new and highly virulent and dangerous variant emerges, vaccinated people will be safe. We are stuck at home again, and the economy will take a huge hit, but anyway we are safe. Unvaccinated people in the U.S. are in more peril than they were last year. More of them will die. They are not protected by a significant level of herd immunity, because they live in districts where only 25 to 30% of people are vaccinated. The curve starts to level off at that percent, but not by much.

The vaccination campaign initially reduced hospitalization and deaths by a huge amount. I do not think that was mainly because of herd immunity, except in the elderly population. For the rest of the population, cases were reduced because they interrupted the chain of transmission, the way quarantine does. Infections and deaths are now increasing catastrophically in the U.S. because of the Delta variant and because many people clustered together have not been vaccinated.

Quote from Mark U

Well, their partner BioNtech received $445 million from the German government.

I wouldn't know about that. If that's true, it was worth every penny, and bravo to the German government.

We all know that they were paid for the actual delivered vaccines. I suppose they made a good profit on that. That's great! That's how capitalism works.