stefan Verified User
  • Member since Aug 31st 2015
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Posts by stefan

    Yes they clearly states here the weaknesses which is good as last time similar results was published it became somewhat viral as a strong evidence against this treatment. Looks like people learn.

    Good point, but I would skip the malice stuff. Also I think that with 1000 persons in the study and have the main outcome this study's main outcome in an older age group would have proved that ivermectin works quite ok in line with non RCT that probably had the same doses as this study and showed an significant effect. To say that they where glaringly incompetence in the protocol you need to verify that other studies that showed an effect did not use the same doses.

    I said that he looks mainly at miss representation of peer reviewed data. He encourage peer discussions from everybody and has a great sense of humor. He is a gold nugget in my mind. I use his YouTube site for getting an understanding of the argument of the main view and get an overview for how the experts that publish their science think about matters, discussed from the other of most people here do. I enjoy both sides and agree with many points on both sides. I do not like to discuss politics, but just to state my preferences. Me and my family's life would have been awful if I lived in USA, and I recognize this is mainly due to the republican stronghold in that country, at least today. Unfortunately our country have more and more turned in a direction to support more and more parties that admire the republicans and far right ideas.


    This whole issue with covid is a scientific one, mostly because people do not want to discuss like peers, and vet facts, and we get a lot of wrong info spread in the wrong way and a lot of info that does not get the limelight it needs. To me potholer and you all are sometimes right and sometimes wrong simply that.




    I would want to learn more about the age distribution Assume that essentially all that get ill is in the 10% normal percentile (1.3SD) lead to an age of 42+25*1.3 and above e.g. 65years old and above. This is a little arbritrary but important observation as covid is exponetially worse as age increases. This gives 50 individuals in this study from which the ivermectin group could have around 14/25 that meets the primary criteria and 21/25 in the control group. now things is not exact here but we would like to make a point. The question is now, is there a significant difference? we could plug it in on the online calculators for fishers exact test and you get something spot on 5% p-value e.g. significant. Now the sample size of 25 in each group is not large so if there is an effect which in this case would be likely it is most probably medically significant. This is not a proof as I have no data and if I had data I would look at it which is a no no. My main point is that to motivate other studies not to include everybody in the same age group and do analysis but in stead stratify and do separate studies in medically meaningful age groups in stead. So not much can be said for now from this paper, we are still discussing small sample sizes even if 500 loks like abunch and quite a good motvation to do things properly and meanwhile medicate with ivermectin.

    He seems like a good investigative journalist, but only goes deep enough to nestle in with the mainstream view of the time as far as I can tell. If you know of examples where he bucks the trend I would like to see that.

    I think that he would acknowledge the issue with the Collombian study as a proof that it ivermectin is not working. this failed issue seam to be copy pasted all over the internet and the study is miss used - a thing he targets.

    Yes the idea of open democratic nations are hurt and on decline, authoritarian is on the rise. The autharitan leaders have a ball at manipulating the world. Stupidity is on the rise for sure. Capitalism is killing itself as short sited greed have made the system voulnarable and we are basically addicted to cheap labor and been played in this field. Greed is killing the open discussion, authorian states are killing the discussion, stupidity is killing the open discussion, politisation and a priority to gain is killing the discussion. I'm glad there are a few potholes in this road to hell.

    Just listened 1 minute: This guy is uninformed and makes silly comparisons. Bonobos are e..g 99.5% close to humans not 99%. what still means > 10 mio. years of evolution....So this guy frequently mixes apples and ice cream.

    May be he first should understand the papers he reads.


    The US experts around Fauci already in January 2020 informed him about the potential escape of a lab virus after studying the RNA. This is written in e-mails from experts not from Youtube clowns.

    The strength of potholder is that he tracks information to the sources and show how misused our news and internet are. If you have good arguments of why his wrong, then post that info. He kan take strong evidenses against him. The discussions on his site is interesting to follow. Hes arguments supports a lab leak where samples have been grown some in the lab, something I currently lean on.

    If the vaccine would not work we should know by now from our authorities also if it is too dangerous to take the vaccine and that from our own data here in Sweden. I know the people doing the analysis, I basically studied together with them and they know their stuff. Our authorities here is not going to vaccinate the young until September October and by then we will know if it is safe.


    On the other hand I have analyzed some papers regarding ivermectin reported above. One that is used by fact checkers that ivermectin does not work and one spanish one (RCT) in lancet that suggest that we should do a big study of it.


    The Colombian study has a huge problem as a proof that ivermectin does not work that fact checkers incompetently miss and what wyttenbach correctly point out -(this paper has spread on the internet and is now all over the place). And that is the age distribution (50% where under 50 years old and in a narrow band). They should then not clump everyone together if they had a serius number older people indeed where in the study, but instead separate into different age groups. In all, although they have quite a lot of people in the study compared to other rct the effect to measure is small and if older people are included unessesary big error will result that enable no effect to be seen. There are other problems with the study as well but that's the biggest issue to me.


    N.B.

    It is quite common to say, in papers, that for the group they studied, it was significant or not and leave the description of the group to the results section. This was done here under the assumption that the experienced reader would search for it. Interesting the lancet study I think actually presented the age group more explicitly.


    No this age group could be interesting to study if you look at virological load, which is done in the lancet spanish rct. they did just have 20 persons in the study in a basically the same narrow age group, but they analysed virological load an did find indications that ivermectin can work, but the effect, which could be relevant was not significant, but then only 20 people means that only super big effects can be seen.


    I would very much like to see how the experts and fact checkers address the issue with the age group and if they can't retract their conclusion, clean the internet. Experts seam to have realized this issue though as they have included ivermectin in the big studies now, but seam to keep quit about it publically.


    The Indian case is indeed suggestioning that the viral load decreases with ivermectin, but the data is difficult. Other meassures was taken together with ivermectin recomendations and things are confounded. Also statistics of the number of people taking ivermectin seam to be missing so we end up in a guessing game. The fact that make me lean on that there is an effect is that we had one region that did not suggest ivermectin and cases went wild there, I have not seen anyone suggesting an alternative explanation of this fact, like if they did not recommend masks and social distansing or similar.

    Wyttenbach I sort of understand where you are comming from in your tirades, but I have a different pitch on it.


    Pitching a drug may mean that you believe in it and it's your role to pitch it, sales people do this all the time, listening to their researchers and be super smart at manipulating the customer. This is capitalism as we know it and that is what we as a people have said an ok for. I'm not in the business of running trials, and the process of the choice of what to put in the game and whats to put on the queue is held in dark for the us, the public. All I can say is that in my experience you need a well thought out system or process to avoid bias in the choices of what drug goes first, when we include corporate influence, and to me a generic cheap drug really risk not get the same clever pitching as the other drugs do and I simply suspect that we do not choose the order of drugs to test based on the best medical merit. You see I do not believe in evil out there, i believe in wrong psychology and faulty systems at play. Wrong system and processes is all over the places in the world and many times this is accepted and even hailed as religion. We accept and vote for politicians that want the universities to have systems where there is a tight coupling between academics and companies in order to direct research towards good research, this has been an on going process for a long time and is actually working quite well in many ways. There is however a risk if you want researchers to make objective choices or if you have that one bright idea that goes against the common dogma - you and everybody else loose.


    Yes people and politicians will want heads rolling if it turns out that the proof of ivermectin was delayed we'll see.


    Actually I have seen with my own eyes how smooth the companies sails persons are and It is obvious that they can have a psychological influence on doctors. I was quite surprised at the level of sponsoring they have of conferences and venues. On the other hand doctors is a top elite of the academics with highest grade in the country on pre-university tests, (money does not help here to get in, in sweden, which is good) and that means that they think quite well for themselves and usually base their choices on many objective measures and manage usually to stay out of the obvious miss information traps (we did not have the same opioid crisis here as in USA) if you think what i'm saying is bunk then consider answering why you got the over-prescription of hard pain drugs in USA that went south, it was one hell of a successful sails pitch behind that and not some objective choice that went wrong so we actually know for sure that there is a system error at work in parts of the medicine landscape.

    Hacker news discusison about ivermectin can be found here It's quite discussed among hackers and I found it

    interesting to follow. Clearly not a fan only discussion or the opposite. I would love if we could have a public experts

    only forum that discusses heated things like this. Maybe this will be common in the future.

    I think that if the now starting high quality studies show a slam dunk for ivermectin. Something that essentially all of us here have been waiting for a looooong time we must question how we prioritize medical research. To me it really look like a weakness if it is true that usually the money from medical industry is shaping most of the activity. I know that independence for a long time have been in decline hitting actually lenr research hard as universities more and more want coop with external money in the name of relevance and economy. This Strategy is not wrong in most cases but as a side effect, what we see with the very alarming delaying of a good big rct study of ivermectin is not good as well. It is not strange at all for the medical companies to get their horse in the race tested first. It is not malice. It is normal business and a reflection of the preferences of those with power and how have we set up the system to fund our research. Maybe a slam dunk of ivermectin in these studies will change the tide and perhaps even be a plus for other research branches like lenr

    Not publishing age distribution should mean that the result is unpublishable. How the heck was this possible. I really need to verify this.


    And after reading the paper. Age is actually included, it's in the result section. People seam to just read the abstract it seams. No scam here at all. But weak as an evidens against ivermectin so those lifting this result as something big against ivermectin is simply incompetent and not someone to trust as an expert.


    I usually prefer the incompetence explanation before malice. Also having an discussion about topics makes it way easier for a non expert to judge

    Critique if ivermectin causing reduction of Indian cases Post


    This points out some weaknesses in the argument that ivermectin is a wonder drug helping India. That regions not taking ivermectin goes wild in cases is however a weakness in their argument as well. Also note that a moderate effect can cause r to go from 1.1 to 0.9 and exponential relationships means that with time you will have a 99% reduction. So we would should discuss r instead

    In a RCT Lancet study I fond interesting as the positive effect is seen by ivermectin although a low number of people indicating that Ivermectin has a significant positive effect But I agree with the authors that this is an indication only and a good motivation for a larger study. Statistically they use non-parametric analysis which for these small sample sizes is needed and indicates that they are competent. On the other hand it is unclear how many tests and comparisons is done and small sample size means that there can be confounding factors so, yes as they state in the paper a larger study is well called for.


    There is a debate on the usefulness of p-values and the reason is that this value is not reflecting how large the effect is, just that it is an effect. That's why a confidence intervals is also

    needed. But I would not recommend that one removes the P-values as they are a useful tool to compensate for the number of tests made e.g. bonferroni. If only a confidence interval is presented the P-value is less obvious and it is more demanding to analyze the effect of multiple comparisons.

    This critique is interesting and shows the reason why scientists are cautious and want

    a proper study of ivermectin. Main take away is that many of the studies of ivermectin has

    not gone through a proper scientific process and e.g. there is a big risk of publication bias. I

    still think that it may be good and should be ok to administer, on the other hand I do not see

    that ivermectin is a wonder drug comparable to vaccine.

    x can be 0.001 just fine

    Look to last year's data and you will see the same rise of alpha that you are seeing with delta during the approaching summer equinox and soon, like last year you will see a decrease only to have it start rising again in September. The # 1 driving force of this pandemic is the Sun!!! Countries still dealing with large case loads are all still in their flu seasons, India, brazile, African continent, south and central America. Interesting, the virus seems to gain strength as each season equinox approaches and wanes shortly after. Check the data

    Yes there seam to be a SUN effect, but factors are confounded, we had much less sun this spring than last spring and still the down trend is 2-4weeka ahead of last year alsow wec

    Well THH is not taking the bait. :) The drug with all those bad side effects is caffeine, not hat cup of coffee can kill! I could go down a huge list of commonly used OTC drugs, vitamins, pain relievers and foods that when overused can do harm.


    My point is Ivermectin has the potential to fight off COVID, and save the lives of millions, whereas the others won't (except food of course). Yet the worlds health governing bodies, and media are doing everything they can to block it.

    and t

    Like the Wuhan lab leak, something is wrong with this picture. They say "follow the science" but they themselves do not. They follow their politics.

    Well noted.


    Ivermectin given in controlled form is not an issue to me and should not be for others as it is a quite safe drug if prescribed correctly and there is good indications that it works. But things can go south if hearsay and anti science, non sientific social media frenzy starts to take over, that people do not protect themselves because they feel safe. That societies doesn't adapt to safer procedures, install plexiglass shields for cashiers, and all those myriad of quite simple but helpful things that reduces the probability of spread, because the drug is there. That companies that can, don't let their workers work from home (this is brilliant and if not people where killed I would thank mr covid). That people do not wear mask if the bus is crowded, That government decline vaccination offers due to it's confidence in the drug, it seams that the doses is given high and lo in this environment and there is reports that people overdose with the end result of needing a replacement of the liver and other side effects. I guess the logic can be like this, aunt takes x mg of the drug. Get's covid and dies. Then the rest of the family hear from an internet chat forum that the dose is too low, scared by the death they buy extra doses themselves and overmedicate. Also in this environment with low control of the drug, we can't monitor well for side effects, it's hard to verify what works and what not. What to expect and what not. Heck we can't prove that it works or not although it is taken by millions and millions of people. That is what anti science get you, one huge big mess. But yes, in a more controlled, non politisized and western style environment this should probably not be a huge risk.