Posts by JedRothwell

Quote from Mark U

Piers Morgan thinks his double vaccination (last shot in May) may have saved his life, since he continues to be suffering from unpleasant and lingering Covid complications. That's what I like, a cup half full attitude!

I have the same attitude. I would much rather be sick for a few weeks than dead, or permanently disabled with lung problems or cognitive problems. I would say that glass is not half full, but 99.9999% full.

How about you? Which you you prefer? Would you pick a mild illness for a few weeks, or would you want to die after months of agony in the hospital?

Quote from Fm1

Dr. Anthony Fauci is back in sales mode, now representing his pharmaceutical patrons.

He is a government employee. He is not allowed to have pharmaceutical patrons, or any other direct source of income outside of the government. He would get in big trouble if he did. He is a high profile person, so the government would find out.

In Germany, they are testing overhead electric wires (catenary wires) for trucks on highways. Interesting concept!

What if Highways Were Electric? Germany Is Testing the Idea.

An electrified highway is theoretically the most efficient way to eliminate truck emissions. But the political obstacles are daunting.

www.nytimes.com

Quote from Gregory Byron Goble

The last person alive who lived before the Model A hit the scene is no longer with us.

I think you mean the Model T. The Model A was introduced in 1927. There are a few people over age 94.

Quote from Gregory Byron Goble

The FAA is tasked with envisioning safe routes between metropolitan regions. Emminent domain will be applied to remove underlying residences and businesses for safety.

What?!? Why would residences and business be removed??? Are these things going to fly 10 feet off the ground?? I assume they will fly thousands of feet off the ground, far above any building. Does this mean they will be so unreliable they will fall out of the sky onto houses on a regular basis, so houses should be removed? If they are that unreliable no one will use them. Think of the cost of lost freight, never mind lawsuits.

This statement makes no sense to me.

If someone else would like to figure out what the heck an electric car "MPGe" means, please do so. I have a feeling I misinterpreted it again. I cannot find an authoritative description. Some of the descriptions talk about energy "from the plug" meaning delivered electric power, I suppose. Not primary energy.

Anyway, I do not think the additional electric power (should really be called "energy") will be a problem, but I would like to put a number on it. Things like this bug me.

Quote from Fm1

Given that youth don’t tend to get very sick from this pandemic, we should ask why we need to vaccinate them if real risks are involved?

Answer: These are not real risks. They are expected side-effects. They indicate that the vaccine is working correctly. Many childhood vaccinations cause similar side effects in infants and small children. It would be insane to stop giving them, because the risk of a serious problem from the vaccine is orders of magnitude smaller than the risks from the disease. People who ask questions like this are ignorant of basic science and statistics.

Risks of a vaccine reaction

For DTaP vaccine:

• Soreness or swelling where the shot was given, fever, fussiness, feeling tired, loss of appetite, and vomiting sometimes happen after DTaP vaccination.

This is trying for the parent and child, but nothing to worry about. It is not a "real risk." In rare cases, more dangerous reactions occur:

• More serious reactions, such as seizures, non-stop crying for 3 hours or more, or high fever (over 105°F) after DTaP vaccination happen much less often. Rarely, the vaccine is followed by swelling of the entire arm or leg, especially in older children when they receive their fourth or fifth dose.

Such outcomes have not been reported for COVID vaccines.

As noted above by THH, the side effects in children are only slightly more severe than in adults, which is not surprising.

Quote from Alan Smith

The results included the failed First Anglo-Afghan War of 1838, the First Anglo-Sikh War of 1845, the Second Anglo-Sikh War of 1848, the Second Anglo-Afghan War of 1878, and the annexation of Kokand by Russia.

What was the final score? Who won?

Quote from Alan Smith

Ring-a-ring-a-roses

A pocket full of posies

Atishoo, atishoo

We all fall down

Posies were thought to have medicinal qualities.

In the U.S. that's "ashes, ashes, we all fall down."

I have read this is not actually an ancient nursery rhyme. It seems to reflect the medieval history of plagues, but modern folklorists say it does not. See:

Ring Around the Rosie: Metafolklore, Rhyme and Reason | Folklife Today

It might as well reflect these things. If it did not originally, it does now.

Quote from Fm1

Delta variant will lead to increase in breakthrough Covid infections among vaccinated, Moderna says

I think this is well established by now. Moderna, the CDC and many others now have data showing this is the case. It is bad news, but not catastrophic for vaccinated people. There are more breakthrough cases than there were with earlier strains of COVID, but still very few serious cases or deaths. A second booster will probably be needed, but there will be plenty of time to develop it and deploy it in first world nations.

Delta not only causes more breakthrough cases, it is more contagious. I read there are indications it causes more serious illness among younger people, but that has not yet been clearly established. What is clear is that Delta is not catastrophic to vaccinated people, but it is catastrophic to the unvaccinated. Anyone can see that in the statistics from places like Florida. Unvaccinated people are in as much danger as they were in December. In the U.S., most of them are not protected by herd immunity because they live clustered together in places where very few people are vaccinated. In Georgia, they live in voting districts that went strongly for Trump. Democratic districts are ~70% vaccinated; Trump districts ~25%. ~25% happens to be the number of Democrats in these districts, which I expect is no coincidence. 90% of Democrats say they are vaccinated or they soon will be. In other words, the 75% of unvaccinated people in these districts are mostly Republicans, and they probably go to church together and shop together, all without masks or social distancing. They are actively opposed to vaccination. In short, they are in a Dance with Death, like gay people in the 1980s having unrestricted sex with strangers in bathhouses as AIDS swept through their community.

(metmuseum.org, Anonymous, German, 16th century)

Quote from Fm1

Are you suggesting that greed has not played a part in Covid?

Greed plays a role in all human affairs. In capitalism, it is usually a positive, helpful role. It spurs innovation. In COVID, it spurred Pfizer to develop a vaccine quickly, with their own money, without tax money. That is a remarkable accomplishment. It is wonderful. The fact that they did it without tax money is icing on the cake. So, greed has made a wonderful contribution to the COVID crisis, and it will ultimately save millions of lives.

There is no evidence that greed has caused problems in the COVID crisis. Assertions that greed have prevented the use of ivermectin and other drugs make no sense. That is not how free-market capitalism works. Greed and the capitalist lust for profit would never prevent the use of these drugs. On the contrary, it ensures they would be used if they are effective. As I have pointed out, if the drugs are effective and one company does not provide them, their competitors will. The competitors would like nothing better than to grab profits and market share from the company that tries to suppress the use of a drug. Competing companies never cooperate. They never help one another. First, because that would be leaving money on the table. Second, because it would violate antitrust laws and get them in trouble with Uncle Sam.

Saying that greed is a problem in the pandemic is like saying that greed held back progress in personal computers and software in the 1980s. That era saw the most progress in the history of computing. Every bit of it was driven by greed. Greedy people including Bill Gates and I made progress because we wanted money. Computers were a wide open, profitable business. In 2020 and 2021, probably the most profitable business on earth is making vaccines for COVID. If ivermectin or some other drug worked, that would also be fantastically profitable. There is plenty of market share for both vaccines and drugs, just as there was plenty of market space for PCs and Mac in the 1980s. The profit motive is good. It is what is saving millions of lives.

The only bad influence on the pandemic are the lies and fear spread by anti-vax people and the GOP. This is not motivated by greed. It is motivated by ignorance, fear, anti-science attitudes, the lust for political power, and the will to hurt your enemies and "own the libs." Do you want to know why rural people in Georgia are dying from COVID? Because they have the mentality of the Russian peasant in the proverbial story. God sends an angel to visit a devout peasant. The angel says, "God knows of your devotion, and he wishes to reward you." "Oh, thank you!" replies the peasant. The angel explains: "God will grant you anything, with one provision. Whatever he gives you, he will give it twice to your neighbor." The peasant is taken aback. Disturbed. Finally, he sputters: "Then take one of my eyes!"

Quote from RobertBryant

10 is not zero..strange math from Georgia

~10/ 3.5k versus ~20/3.5k ..seems less to me..

Yes, 5 or 10 deaths per day is not quite zero, but given the population of Israel, and 3,800 people infected per day, it is likely that most of the dead were very old, or suffering from an advanced cases of cancer, or close to death for some other reason. COVID probably kills them because they are so weak. 5 or 10 would die from the common cold. Many more from influenza. So, as I said, it is no more of a threat than influenza. However, 3,800 infections per day is too many. This number needs to be reduced. I am confident it will be reduced with a second booster shot, and/or a booster targeted to Delta. And, possibly, with another round of masking and social distancing until the numbers fall.

As I said, the situation is under control.

Quote from Cydonia

We should remove these dirty trains to recover lines then adding way for self car/bus as explained earlier.

The trains are dirty? Do you mean they pollute? Aren't they electric?

If you mean they are untidy inside, they should be cleaned. I hope robots can do that soon.

Quote from Cydonia

Also, don't minimize how a self car network will be faster because no stop needed, no traffic light needed.

I do not see how that could work! Of course they have to stop. They cannot just keep travelling. Inertia would make that very dangerous if two cars approached the intersection at right angles. One would have to stop. In practice, they both have to stop.

In Atlanta, when the power fails and traffic lights are off, drivers must treat all traffic lights as stop signs in both directions. In other words, everyone has to stop, and then take their turn to go, one car at a time. That works surprisingly well, as long as everyone follows the rules. It is a little tricky turning in front of oncoming traffic. I guess it would work with self-driving cars even better, because they all follow the rules. A mix of self-driving and human driving cars would be problematic. However, even with this arrangement, all cars have to stop, and overall it takes longer than it does with a working traffic light.

Quote from Cydonia

it's different in US because Cities are organized as a network better to circulate.

U.S. and British subway systems are organized to move the largest number of people from home to office in the shortest time. Over the most travelled path, they are fast and efficient, but when you go somewhere off this path, for example crosstown in Manhattan, they are slow and inconvenient. Routes are duplicated in a way that seems irrational, especially in New York City. The subway routes are organic, like the roads in Boston which evolved from ancient trails made by animals and by cow herders. The subway in Paris is designed more rationally. It allows anyone to go anywhere, but it is not optimized for the largest number of people at rush hour. One author who described this said the difference is reflected in the philosophies of Hume versus Descartes. The broader traditions in engineering and design also reflect this difference between organic trial and error versus a carefully thought-out, rational design.

Products such as Microsoft Windows are in the British/American tradition of organic build and then modify, add on and add on again. It is a confusing mess, with bits and pieces left over from the original PC DOS, which was a confusing mess based on an earlier pre-PC operating system. It is a mess but on the other hand it is very capable and covers a broad range of users and applications. Mac architecture is more Cartesian.

Quote from RobertBryant

Israel rising again..

Fatality is less than in the last wave.

The fatality rate is zero. Okay, 4 or 5 people per day. "Less than in the last wave" is a strange way to describe no fatalities. You should say: "thanks to the vaccines, COVID is no longer fatal, and no more dangerous than seasonal influenza." That puts things in perspective.

Quote from RobertBryant

Child vaccination likely to increase

Moderna ...Pfizer.. Hosanna..

Child vaccination plus a second booster for older people is likely to bring the total number of cases back down close to zero again. If that does not work, a re-engineered booster to deal with the Delta variant may be needed. Until the booster shots and/or re-engineered vaccine becomes available, a return to some masking will prevent a serious outbreak. This is the same as what they are doing in Provincetown. They are back to requiring masks. The number cases will drop close to zero.

The situation is under control.

In the U.S., in places where people refuse to be vaccinated, the situation is out of control. ~100,000 people are being infected per day. Soon, thousands will die every day. The situation will be same as it was in December, because biology has not changed and without a vaccination you are as vulnerable to sickness and death today as you were then. Probably more vulnerable and more likely to be infected, with the Delta variant. In a state where half the people are vaccinated, an unvaccinated person might think he is safer than he was in December. Half the people around him are immune. That is not the situation, because Delta is so much more contagious. Even with half as many people and a degree of herd immunity, Delta will more likely infect you because it is more contagious. Also, unvaccinated people tend to be in communities where nearly everyone else is unvaccinated. To be specific, they are in GOP districts that voted for Trump. In Georgia in the Democratic district where I live, 60 to 70% or more have been vaccinated. Nearly everyone in the grocery store and hardware store is back to wearing masks. In heavily GOP districts, less than 25% have been vaccinated, and no one wears masks. They are begging to be infected! You can thanks to the Death Cult GOP for that. It is encouraging people to join in a macabre Dance with Death in the service of right-wing ideology and "owning the libs."

Georgia COVID-19 Vaccine Tracker

This is your state and county equivalent level look at how many have gotten a dose or doses of the COVID-19 vaccine. Click on a state to see how many vaccines…

data.democratandchronicle.com

50,000 to 100,000 people will probably die in the next 12 months in the service of this lunatic ideology. Hundreds of thousands more will suffer and have their lives ruined, and their families bankrupted. All because one political party wants to exploit stupid people with fear along with weird appeal to superiority -- telling them they are smarter and know more than Dr. Fauci, exploiting the Dunning Kruger effect. This is the most horrific waste of life and the worst mass murder in the U.S. since the Civil War. And for what? Just to win an election.

Quote from Cydonia

You forget that self cars network will be managed by IA more efficient than individual drivers even if helped by google maps

There is a limit to how much better or faster cars can go in a given amount of traffic. If the same number of people want to go downtown to Atlanta at 9 a.m., it is certain they will encounter heavy stop-and-go traffic. It will take a long time. No amount of AI or planning can make them go faster. Putting several people into one car would help. There are now commuter buses and subway trains that accomplish that. Dedicated bus lanes would also help. But, fundamentally, there is not enough space and time for the number of people who want to go downtown at that hour. There is no place left to build roads. Self-driving cars would not go any faster. There is no mathematical solution waiting to be discovered with AI or by any other means. The equations are simple enough to be done by people.

A jitney service that begins by going through neighborhoods collecting people, and then goes to multiple locations will take a very long time. It would take a long time even in light traffic conditions.

Gathering people at the suburban express bus locations has succeeded in increasing passenger density. People go to the bus station parking lot in their own cars, so there is no delay from jitney pick-ups. The buses go to locations downtown within walking distance of where many people work. The buses have amenities such as wifi and cell phone service, which you are not allowed to use when you drive yourself, so people make better use of their commuting time. Things like electric scooters help with the last mile. This kind of solution has nothing to do with self-driving vehicles. It works with today's technology.

Example:

Xpress | Commuting Made Easy!

Quote from Alan Smith

Today, RethinkX is releasing, “Rethinking Climate Change: How Humanity Can Choose to Reduce Emissions 90% by 2035 through the Disruption of Energy, Transportation, and Food with Existing Technologies.”

This report discusses some of the subjects I have touched upon here, and in my book. Especially the use of indoor food production to free up land, which is then reforested to absorb CO2.

The report describes how many incremental changes can produce an overall large change. It also illustrates how some technological changes go faster than you might think. This is in the section "The Surprising Speed of Disruption" and the graphs on p. 33. These examples are little unfair because they mostly involve technology with low overhead costs, no infrastructure, and no built-in reason to slow down adaption of the newer technology. For example, the replacement of red fabric dyes with synthetic dye (1870 - 1885), or non-radial car tires with radials (1972 - 1987). Radial tires work the same way as the older ones. They are one-for-one replacements. They do not need new automobile types, or new kinds of roads and highways. Non-radial tires all wear out and have to be replaced anyway. If the tire were radically different, it could not replace the old one as quickly. For example, look at the Goodyear Eagle-360 spherical tires. This is a futuristic concept product. It would require a completely re-engineered automobile. It would be much more difficult to implement than a radial tire. I doubt this tire will be implemented in the next 50 years, because the advantages are not large enough to justify the cost.

Cold fusion would also require complete re-engineering of most products. It would take many years to implement for that reason. But, it would be implemented, because the cost savings and other advantages are overwhelming. I expect it would be implemented in weapons systems first, because when you fall behind technologically, you are likely to lose a war.

Quote from Alan Smith

UK Covid cases are starting to rise again...

Actually, they seem to be falling from the peak of 45,000 per day on July 22, down to 26,000. It looks like a significant change to me.

United Kingdom COVID: 5,952,756 Cases and 130,000 Deaths - Worldometer

www.worldometers.info

I just read somewhere that a quick peak and rapid decline is characteristic of the Delta variation. I do not know why. Among vaccinated people with breakthrough cases, Delta clears very quickly, according to this person, who -- incidentally -- has a low opinion of the CDC:

Opinion | The C.D.C. Needs to Stop Confusing the Public

The C.D.C. isn’t following its own guidance to “be first, be right, be credible.”

www.nytimes.com

Quote from Cydonia

Be more imaginative Jed, self driving shared cars won't carry people one by one...

We will see cars for 6, 8 or 10 persons, with same number of separated doors , separated window for all.

If that is what you are talking about, it could be done with human drivers. That kind of vehicle used to be common in the U.S. It was called a "jitney" in some parts of the country. They are still used to pick up people at home and drive them to the airport.

That has nothing to do with self-driving cars per se, except that it would reduce the cost of those cars. Not by much, because with several passengers you do not have to pay the human driver much. That is why jitneys are used to take people to airports -- because it is cheaper than individual taxicabs. It works well because everyone is going to the same place. Picking up people at different locations and taking them to different locations is less effective, and it takes too long. That is why jitneys went out of style.

Quote from THHuxleynew

Looking at the case rates in the UK, you can see they are very very low in population cohorts that are 90% vaccinated or more. It seems likely that breakthrough infections of delta would still control infections, without lockdown,

Probably. As I understand the latest reports, and in particular the Provincetown, MA breakthrough cases (https://www.nytimes.com/2021/0…rovincetown-cape-cod.html), the existing vaccines can control Delta. They can even eliminate it, once ~85% of the population is vaccinated. However, this can only be done by continuing to use masks and social distancing for about a month. First, vaccinate ~85%, then wear masks for a month to prevent breakthrough cases. By that time, the number of infected, contagious people will fall to zero, or close to zero. Any remaining cases should be trackable. The patients can be quarantined. If there were a few hundred per day in country such as the UK, Japan or the US, the cost of tracking would be negligible.

A booster shot targeted to Delta would be better, but it is not essential. That's what I think the reports say.

Provincetown came as a shock to the CDC. However, people should keep it in perspective. On July 4, there were 30,000 people in the town, 75% of them fully vaccinated. Mostly young people carousing, jamming bars and house parties, and "making out." There were 965 cases, many of them breakthrough, but only 7 hospitalizations and no deaths. In Provincetown itself they have gone back to using masks and social distancing. That is a very liberal, Democratic part of the country where just about everyone is vaccinated and will do what the doctors recommend. (I know the place. I was there a few years ago when my daughter was working at the National Park nearby, as a naturalist.)

On the internet I have already seen several people claim that 965 breakthrough cases in Provincetown prove that "the vaccines do not work" because more vaccinated people got sick than unvaccinated people. People who say that do not understand statistics. Heck, they do not understand simple arithmetic. There are no unvaccinated people in Provincetown! (Okay, practically none.) If every single unvaccinated person there got sick, they would probably still be outnumbered by the breakthrough cases.

Quote from JedRothwell

It will, as soon as they administer the second booster shot.

They may need to re-engineer the booster to cover the Delta virus. Fortunately, mRNA vaccines can be re-engineered quickly. Perhaps within weeks or a few months, according to Pfizer. That's another wonderful thing about mRNA vaccines.

The present vaccine prevents nearly all serious cases and deaths from Delta, but it is not as good at preventing breakthrough infections.