I have a simple question: Where did this virus get its polybasic furin cleavage site?
The Case Is Building That COVID-19 Had a Lab Origin
No, it's not made by humans, unless we are talking about state sponsored multi billion project to kill a good part of the world including your own people. The carrier is mutated as well which excludes human construction as this would only be done in an extreamly advanced cover up of a human construction. see Potholer
I see a lot of press arguing that the Corona outbreak to blame China. But nowhere do I see calculations that support this theme. This is what I mean.
Assume corona figures of the following kind that match swedish figures quite ok
of 1000 infécted, 10 is going to hospital and 1 is dead after 2 weeks. Also assume doubling in
3 days without action.
So when there is 100 infected individuals the doctor notices a few cases indicating this is a new sickness. But not much is known.
After a week the first individual that will die goes to the hospital and after nasty 2 weeks he dies. Oh it's nasty deadly, I have a few
other cases. But was this a coincidence. One week later, no it is not a coincidence, larm goes off. Total after a month after the first encounter, we are talking about 2^10 times more infected or around 100000 at this time. This is probably the reason we have a pandemic right now. Notice that during the time between first encounter and the alarm goes off there is 1000 times as many infected.
Its frustrating to see the blaming done. Few voices seam to say hey we error d. Lets make sure not to do that again. Hmm Japan managed well. Lets see what we can learn and implement? No the game is to say we did well and why the heck didn't china prevent this? I do not lookup to China as a system. What I value is persons taking responsibilities and make sure to admit and learn from mistakes. Japan et all simply has done the lessons from before where west was spared. This time I consider us lucky. Not overly deadly and my kids seam to be safe. Not spreading like the meassles. Sure nasty but not unbearably nasty. So where are the real men and women that does the right thing? well as you know so well by now the whole show is run by mice. I have a sentence in memory that I learned in the literature history in school that keep popping up again and again. "det är synd om människan" or it is a pity for men
There are some indication that nikotin can be used avoiding getting the covid 19. The theory is that nikotine binds to the same receptors as covid and blocks it. Studies is underway. In sweden 20% uses nikotine. either as smokers or 'snusare' the latter is a wet nikotine powder that is formed to a 'prilla' and put under the lip used by 20% of the men here.
My next car will definatly be electric. Environmentally its the best choice atm here.
Case tracking for ever ?? What is the idea behind this? Do it for the flue too ? It has always been done for AIDS, or Hepatitis C but they are a fraction as contagious as CoV-9 is.
Why not using simple medication in case somebody shines up with symptoms? How do you track 20x asymptotic cases that infect other 20x asymptotic cases and just 1 of 20 will be visible. You will loose all traces!! Case tracking is dead stupid nonsense as a general measure as it simply does not work as soon as 1 single asymptotic case occurs.
Countries like Japan, China will just face a never ending lock-down if they do not start to understand what really happens.
One to two years effort then there will be a vaccine. of cause if we get a good treatment the game changes. Also in sweden we have a immunity help it looks like this makes tracking easier.
FYI a bad flue season 1000 dies. now we are at 4000 and lands before 6000. if we could protect the one in elderly care we would have had 1000-1500 deaths. Possibly you have the same situation in Switzerland but hopefulle less problem in elderly care
They should do that too. Develop a vaccine AND do case tracking. They are not mutually exclusive.
It turns out there is case tracking in Georgia. The Atlanta Journal reported today that the government now has about 250 people doing that, and they want to expand that to about 1,000 people. Good for them! There are about 700 new cases a day, so they need about more than 250 people. I have read estimates that the U.S. as a whole needs 150,000 to 300,000. That is with 20,000 to 30,000 new cases a day. That's ~8 people tracing cases per infection per day. That seem like a lot but I guess they are busy.
yea with cool I mean to make sure to take the time to make a safe vaccine. Hate to give the anti vaccers more fuel. Also you should lockdown untill the cases becomes so low so that tracking becomes practical.
On conclusion from the swedish seriological study the found that around 5% of people in age 0-20 had antibodies. In sweden if children transmitted covid then basically all children should be infected by now. Also there is not one known case in sweden where children transmitt to their teatchers. All points to children does not take part in the spreading of covid. but now to the trick question. When does this effect stop? I think that there is a fraction in each age group that has this strange kind of immunity if you look at it spreading wise. We have no clue how this looks like is it still a significant fraction at the age of 30?
Display More" “The best laid schemes o' mice an' men / Gang aft a-gley." 1785 Robbie Burns..
“The best laid simulations o' mice nay' men / Gang aft a-gley.” 2020 Stefan
Gum beannaicheadh Dia thu
In Oceania.. Chinese myth has it that the simulation is run by turtles..
And my answer is 42.
Sweden seam to glean on Japan's success with case tracking and indicate that we will be using that method after the outbreak. Maybe 10% is immune atm so I think it's a wise strategy and hope that the indications realizes in full adoption of the method. Strangely It looks like we have some effect of immunity in the country which is strange, the temperature have been constant, people have been more and more relaxed still the R0 declines as if an effect of immunity. SO some effect is there. My interpretatin is that Kids does not spread much although does not have antibodies and that this effect means that we get an effect of the immunity although the low antibody rates. Anyway this will play nicely with case tracking I believe which means that we do not need to be hot on the porridge when it comes to vaccines.
Display MoreGood if it works. Bad if it fails. Like launching a daring attack in war.
Nobody likes the rush. But the situation is dire. Worldwide, 5,000 people a day are dying, and economies everywhere are plunging into depressions. We must take shortcuts and do all that we can to stop the pandemic. A few brave people are volunteering to be vaccinated now, to see if the vaccine is safe. Normally, researchers would test it with animals first, and perhaps they did, but to save time they are doing it with people as well. If one of the test subjects dies, it will be tragic, but it will be a necessary sacrifice for the good of humanity.
I would volunteer in a heartbeat.
Wouldn't it be better to be cool and implement case tracking Japan Style?
Computers are a product of Man,,they have no life and no pleasure. until Man arranges it for them with virtual dopamine..
Hang on Seri...
Dont you see the beauty. Earth is just a simulation run by mice and humans devolve to simulate artificial life in computers
that ... It's turtles all the way.
After observing the results of genetic optimizations in computers I am quite certain that the main driver is Genetics and a fight for resources
and there is no purpose. In the basic setup. However I note that if there is an overall intelligence that communicate with species more or less then
it can interfere in the selection process somewhat steer the development just like humans have shaped horses and dogs and whatnot. The thing is
there is no proof of an intelligence and all could be just nature. I have no problems with any of those scenarios, but live life as we are just a product of nature.
Fauci spoke about it a bit. This morning he said the quote below. His quote is still a bit vague in terms of the participants, but Moderna may really be on to something. It would be amazing if they pulled off a vaccine this fast.
“The vaccine induced what we call ‘neutralizing antibodies’ as opposed to just ‘binding antibodies,’” Fauci explained. “‘Neutralizing antibodies’ are antibodies that actually can block the virus… they did it at a moderate dose of the vaccine. That’s the reason why we thought it would be good news.”
They short cuted animal tests, is that good or bad? Bad if you catch bad side effects in the animal tests and only risk the human guinnapigs.
I don't like the rush, we are developing in ways that we have not done before, but my friend Murphy tells my not to worry. He did have an evil smile saying it though.
That's not a huge problem. It turned out 250 mcg was much more than they needed. 25 mcg worked just as well, with no bad side effects.
Half derived antibodies att tested does
? derive antibodies at safe dose
So we will see what happens. Hope you are right, but we have more eggs in other baskets. Anyway Sweden has 10% of the population with antibodies and we see a decline due to immunitivity and I suspect that this is because children does not spread the virus much. So maybe for sweden vaccine where 30% succeeds may be good enough. Also we want the vaccine to be safe this means a really low fraction of side effects for people in their 30ths and so on else the anti vaccers will jump on this hard and having trouble now spells trouble later in this regard. But it's too early to say anything definitive.
Display More17% of 3.5M is 600K. Number of cases = 26,000
that is more than 20X the number of uncounted (but not undetected - people have been told to self-isolate at home and are than never tested, never counted) cases.
The "death rate" has gone down, from a CFR of 20% to the actual 0.9%.
Not good news, since no-one takes CFR to be death rate, except you? Just expected news. There is no reason to expect large numbers of non-antibody positive infections. There is no reason to think the remaining 83% will not have broadly similar IFR if/when they catch it in a second wave.
0.9% is a bit high for IFR (previous estimates 0.66%).
Inner demographics is actually quite young, so does not explain this:
London’s population is young (average age 36.5) compared to the UK overall (40.3). More than one in 10 people living in Inner London (11.7%) are aged between 30 and 34. This compares to just 6.2% of those in the rest of England. More broadly, in Inner London, almost half the population is made up out of those who are in their early twenties to early forties (47%), compared to the rest of England where three in 10 (31%) are in this age group, and Inner London is home to a higher proportion of young people than Outer London.
I gave possible things that might reduce this a bit, but it could be pretty accurate. That would not be good news, and more than 50% higher than previous expectations, taking demographics into account.
Also is the number of deaths reliable? nurseries included?
Display MoreIFR for (Inner) London:
17% of population infected (govt latest gnomic announcement from antibody testing)
5725 deaths (from wiki page on London pandemic - this is Inner london area see picture)
Population 3.5M (from wiki page on inner London, match picture with the other one)
Epidemic is very far past peak: see https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic_in_London for graph of deaths which indicates current figure is pretty accurate for total based on current infected.
IFR = 0.96%
Wiggle room here - does the govt figure perhaps refer to Greater London? in which case infection rate for inner London would be higher and hence IFR lower.
Also could people from outside Inner London have been treated in hospitals in Inner London and hence died there? Again, this would mean real IFR was lower, I see this as quite possible.
Note that even with simple statistics like this working out "real" IFR is pretty tough!
What I found tricky is the lags 3 weeks for developping antibodies and what not lag for the death. I used 3 weeks for death but are unsure
Denmark has a study showing 1% with antibodies abut 100 deaths per mills so they have an IFR of 1% Not sure about the dates of the
sampling and one could critizise the sampling. Smokers? or ex smokers?
We got the result from a randomized seriological study of antibodies => IFR = 0.4, this reduces the fraction immune in sweden
so much that we today have 20% immunity in Stockholm and perhaps slightly above 10% in the country. The researchers are scratching their
head because the reproduction numbers are trending down with more and more careless individuals. So the spread is as we have a much
higher immunity then the study indicates. Let me correct though with the note. 25% of pop is between 0-20 assume all is not transmitting the descease. Then the effective immunity is 45% in Stockholm and 35% in the country.
Still no answer. And what about the lab marker found in the RNA ?? 99% is far off as a potential virus source.its well explained. A constructed virus would use a well known base. not everything mitated.
as potholer sais quote please. length of marker and the number of diferent markers searched for. you know that if you do not fixate the remarkemble and just say find me something remarkable you can find shit about everything. the virus is totally mutatade and if it was a result of advansed hiding we are talking about a very very sick mind not something out of a professional lab. way more probable just somthing from the meat market or bat cave murker which would just swallow and go on if encountered som bat shit while the lab worker would self quarantine itself any slightest shit incident.
