A doctor in Wakayama Pref. discovered he has the Wuhan flu. He has no known connection to any other patient. He thought he had a cold, so he continued to practice for 3 days after symptoms developed, which is an insane thing for a doctor to do.
This is really bad news.
JedRothwell, this has been happening all over the world, this virus is absolutely contagious, is an epidemiologic nightmare, impossible to contain. One can only hope to be in good health to not be downed by it.
World news
·
February 12, 2020
Coronavirus cases aboard Japanese cruise ship climb to 218
Another 44 passengers on board the quarantined Diamond Princess cruise ship tested positive for the novel coronavirus on Thursday. At least 15 Australians, one American, two Canadians and one British national are among the people who've been diagnosed. The ship, which is carrying 3,700 people, has been quarantined in Yokohama since February 3 after a Hong Kong man who sailed on the cruise tested positive for the virus.
If one goes by how contagious this virus is, I’m afraid everyone on that ship is already infected, they should test everyone, but there’s no logistic capacity for that.
https://www.militarytimes.com/…for-coronavirus-pandemic/
just found out of this.
You're right, it isn't racist to claim race-dependent traits based on genes, exist. It is however, as you say, despicable to suggest that someone else's misfortune, based on genes, is somehow good for "us."
you are going to insist with that? I never said it was good!!! I just thought that, as chances to not get infected are slim without self isolation for the next two months, chances of surviving it are better for non Asiatic genetic make ups, which Is just lucky,
Not good!!!
Display MoreThat is a despicable thing to say, but it isn't exactly racist. Different races of people do have different rates of infection and mortality. In the U.S., black people were less susceptible to 1918 Spanish flu than most others, and their mortality rate was lower. I do not think the difference was large -- it was not "much more" -- but it was measurable. On the other hand, isolated groups not exposed to other influenza suffered the highest casualties by far, especially Inuit people. Quote:
"The Spanish influenza appeared at the Inuit community of Okak in late 1918, killing 204 of Okak's 263 residents."
https://www.heritage.nf.ca/art…tics/1918-spanish-flu.php
It is unlikely that Chinese people are significantly more susceptible to any form of influenza than other modern, exposed, cosmopolitan groups, given that influenza always results in a worldwide pandemic nowadays.
There are several diseases that vary by race because of common genotypes. For example, Japanese people get normal tension glaucoma more than people of other races. Doctors not used to looking for this type may not see it in the test results. When you are tested for glaucoma, they should ask you specifically if your ancestors are from Japan. See:
https://www.glaucoma.org/gleam…-in-asian-populations.php
A very stupid person I knew insisted this has nothing to do with race, and they should also be careful to look for normal tension glaucoma in a white person who lived in Japan or speaks Japanese.
Race is a nebulous concept with no firm biological basis, but it is an important category in medicine. People know what race and national origin they are from, so they can inform doctors before an exam, which can help.
I never meant my comment as racist!!!
I was simply saying that, as this thing is very contagious (something that is being acknowledged officially, not my idea or opinion), is nearly impossible to contain. So, as the possibility of a huge portion of mankind to get infected, as the Hong Kong expert suggests (60 to 80%) is already on the table, and I am seeing difficult that anyone not taking strict measures won’t get infected (me included), so I think I probably will get infected, and the only thing that seems to paint a less bleak outcome in general, and in my personal concern, is that, so far, the rate of lethality of non asiatic descent people has been smaller compared to the asiatic descent people. I am not glad at all about it, is a horrible situation for the Chinese people, and is an ongoing human tragedy, but if this were equally lethaly for all genetic make ups, we would be facing a true apocalyptic (in the biblical sense) event. This is probably going to cause a economic depression as it is, anyway.
Believe me I would truly love to be proven wrong, but all what is being known, points to the contrary. I guess we will know sooner than later.
Origin is not CNN but CCN. That is how fakes are created.
NTD is an independent channel, they never purported to be CNN. Anyway, the exact same information about the huge increase in crematory workload was already published in a Chinese media, I posted the google translation link some pages ago.
The big problem for China is how extremely contagious during asymptomatic phase. I strongly suggest reading the NEMJ article about the cases in Germany (posted already within the first three pages of this thread) but this other preprint paper from a team working with DARPA funds is even more eloquent.
https://www.medrxiv.org/conten…101/2020.01.30.20019612v1
The only thing that gives some peace of mind is that this new virus seems to be much more lethal to Chinese than to other genetic make ups.
Alan Smith, I’m reading in the media that The UK has announced a series of strong measures including forcible quarantine as a new policy due to Coronavirus, have you heard anything?
On other worrying news there’s much buzz around a paper published in the JAMA that is being touted as a confirmation that Coronavirus is nearly impossible to contain, and that medical personal is at high risk of contagion.
This is the original article:
https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2761044
And this is one of the media (IMHO very alarmist) reports on the paper:
https://m.thechronicle.com.au/…ck-virus-finding/3941220/
This is the CNN article (with a prominent disclaimer) that seems to be creating all the fuzz:
A word of caution. It is true that much is unknown about 2019-nCoV. In this situation alt-news guesses thrive, and research scientists can be found to advocate persuasively almost any hypothesis. In this situation news outlets will report stories that seem interesting or in line with their prejudices. So while Lyons-Weller has some expertise, we don't know this is authoritative, and his ratings of the various hypotheses seem like his view, rather than what is likely true.
Alan Smith had already posted sine links, on the first and second page of this thread, to the Indian preprint and Lyons-Weller blog where one can find all the argumentations for this stance. Anyway, With some Googling you will find similar expert opinions that the artificial origin of the nCov2019 is suspected.
This article in a Chinese media did a survey in 2 crematoriums of Wuhan. The numbers gathered lent strong support to the idea that the official fatality rate is being absolutely manipulated. These 2 crematoriums out of 11 in Wuhan claim they are incinerating an average of 500 bodies of deceased pneumonia victims per day.
Posting the google translate link as the original is in Chinese.
From vortex-l : https://translate.google.com/t…A%2F%2Farchive.is%2FObawP
Possibly you have to multiply all official figure by a factor of at least 5 up to 50 .... For Wuhan the situation is out of control.
The infected ones on the Yokohama cruise-ship went from 2 10 20 60 (one day steps) . This does not look like a simple disease. Staying in a cabin without an air condition equipped with HEPA filters will probably infect all on board...
I had read elsewhere that the infected number in that cruise were being released as the tests were being performed, as it takes hours to know the results.
In 1918, there was uncertain hygiene, a poor understanding of routes for contagion, no antivirals, no time or method to make a vaccine, and a lot of people had chronic diseases (tuberculosis, diabetes poorly treated, syphilis, etc.). Also many more people smoked cigarettes. On the other hand, today's population has a larger proportion of vulnerable people-- transplant recipients and HIV patients with degrees of immunosuppression and the elderly. So it's not clear what will happen.
Someone mentioned the lockdowns in Chinese cities? Maybe difficult but maybe necessary to prevent wholesale disease and many deaths.
I mentioned the lock downs, which affect 90 million people as of today, and that are being enforced at gunpoint as has been reported, and as of today, those that don't comply with mandatory quarantine (meaning those that fail to report recent travel to Wuhan before the lock down) can be subject even to death penalty. That, to the best of my recollection, never happened even with SARS.
The findings are that the stratosphere contains micro-organisms. How does this extrapolate to extra-terrestrial origins? Can't the organisms found in the upper layers of the atmosphere simply be from Earth and have gotten there from air currents, convection and so on?
ALbeit this is veering off topic, just to answer you, Wickramasinghe did other parallel works to try to prove these hypothesis, you can find most of that work through Google Scholar.
Of course is controversial, but that has not stopped him or his collaborators.
You have to bear in mind that Wickramasinghe was co author of Sir Alfred Hoyle, and together they proposed an extraterrestrial origin of viruses since the late 1970's. They have a book about that, which can also be found through Google Scholar. No matter how controversial, and how criticized their work (and the continuance of that work by Wickramasinghe and many collaborators since), the research follows and no single of his papers has been recalled, albeit he has not been published in "Nature" since the Early 1980's, but at some point he was.
I keep sporadic contact with Dr. Wickramasinghe by e-mail as I have been an Astrobiology aficionado since I have memory of the creation of this research discipline.
Well, all things considered, what keeps bothering me about this outbreak, and makes me feel constantly startled since a week ago or so, is what IMHO are extremely harsh and economically suicidal measures being taken and enforced by Chinese authorities. I had not realized until today that there are now 90.000.000 people living in cities that are officially locked down in China. I had kept thinking in the original 56.000.000 from a couple of weeks ago.
I can’t reconcile the official numbers of infected and fatalities with those extreme measures. The measures being take seem completely disproportionate.
This is the reality...
Dr. Chandra Wickramasinghe has bees suggesting this for decades already.
https://www.thelancet.com/jour…-6736(03)13440-X/fulltext
In the case of this last outbreak, however, is far more likely that the origin is biotechnological.
This is sort of a very bad news / very good news letter to the editor, published no less than in the New England Journal of Medicine (link is open access)
https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMc2001468
Is bad news because it means that is virtually impossible to avoid getting it while having a normal life. Is good news (sort of, except if you are of Asian genetic buildup) as it points out that the virus is mostly harmless for persons that aren’t of Asian ethnicity.
This case of 2019-nCoV infection was diagnosed in Germany and transmitted outside of Asia. However, it is notable that the infection appears to have been transmitted during the incubation period of the index patient, in whom the illness was brief and nonspecific.3
The fact that asymptomatic persons are potential sources of 2019-nCoV infection may warrant a reassessment of transmission dynamics of the current outbreak. In this context, the detection of 2019-nCoV and a high sputum viral load in a convalescent patient (Patient 1) arouse concern about prolonged shedding of 2019-nCoV after recovery. Yet, the viability of 2019-nCoV detected on qRT-PCR in this patient remains to be proved by means of viral culture.
Display MoreI heard on TV yesterday that while stats from China are not reliable, the Chinese, to their credit, were very quick to isolate and sequence the virus and to share the data. This should make it easier to test existing antiviral drugs and drug candidates and also to make a vaccine. Vaccine arrival is estimated at one year. Let's hope we get that year! The development of ebola medication and vaccines is suggested as a possible model for eventual mitigation of corona virus.
When comparing modern times to 1918, the big differences are better overall hygiene and understanding and especially, the availability of antibiotics. Antibiotics have no effects on the virus but they are very useful in treating the "superinfections" with bacteria which a weakened immune system and damaged tissues facilitate, especially in the lungs.
The current mortality rate in China for reported coronavirus infections is consistently 2%. That is high if millions of people get infected! Hopefully, as the epidemic becomes better understood, that unpleasant stat will drop.
I would note in passing that the use of masks (such as N95 and even antichemical cartridge types won't stop a virus. What it does stop or slow is outbound saliva and secretion droplets from infected people. So it tends to protect from a person wearing the mask. I don't think it does much to protect the individual who is wearing it though of course, every bit helps.
if confronted with the choice of wearing a mask or not, better to wear it.
Parker probe is a frequent subject of the electric Universe project because it often reports results that are at odds with what is expected.
Agreed, but if you read the blog article of James Lyon posted by Alan, the most likely hypothesis is that this strain was a live vaccine in development that was most probably released by accident to the wild.
Display MoreI think, we do not need to act like pessimists. Not yet. But, we could act like, at least, optimistically spoken, being prepared for the worst case.
Meaning, go and buy ammo, candles, vitamin pills, water, and food in tincans.
All of them will also be useful without a pandemia. But if one strikes, it will be necessary.
Let's hope, this won't happen, but, if that stem starts with mutations......then we have lot's of time to panic...
I don’t know if you are joking with the ammo stuff, that sounds like a “prepper”.
Anyway I’m glad I live in a desert with scorching temps that makes any virus last very short in the open.
