Posts by Mark U

Quote from THHuxleynew

Yes, the tests are a blunt tool, especially because (in the Uk) the false negative rate is around 30%, so if you test negative it does not mean you don't have it and in fact you are still required to self-isolate.

That seems very high. At any rate, in the UK if you test negative you do not have to self isolate unless there are some unlikely scenarios.

https://www.nhs.uk/conditions/…t-your-test-result-means/

Quote from THHuxleynew

PS - the virus is just as deadly if caught from someone not at all affected by it! The jury is out on how much less infectious such people are.

Asymptomatic people are in all probability far less infectious. If they were shedding the virus like crazy they would have symptoms, almost surely.

Quote from JedRothwell

No, I mean that Trump prevented it. As far as I know it is not happening. (Perhaps it is happening but I have not heard. Can you point me to a news article describing a Federal tracking program?)

I think the way it works in the US is that the CDC and HHS give funding to the individual states to perform their own testing and tracing.

The first funding was in April from the CDC:

https://www.washingtonpost.com…s-federalfunding-testing/

Then in May, from HHS:

https://www.hhs.gov/about/news…s-territories-tribes.html

Quote from Shane D.

I would argue we already have a fairly effective contact trace program established, and it is run by the hospitals. It works through self interest, in that most people (including the young with little risk) have a fear of the virus, and voluntarily present themselves to the program if they suspect they are infected. No need for armies of government officials. This is how it works:

A little update on my end. Instead of a six day wait for test results (which many have reported in Toronto), my son got his result in two days. Fabulous! That was two days ago. He had to look up his results online. They only call you if you are positive. My son and his three friends all tested negative. They had been together in the same smallish room for a few hours - and sharing a gaming controller - with a friend who was tested three days later and who turned out to be positive.

The thing is : the infected (asymptomatic) friend, as soon as he tested positive, called up all all his friends he had been in contact with recently, to let them know. He was not even directed by the hospital to do so. So although the state government or the hospitals may implement tracing or provide direction, an informed and conscientious citizenry can also do the work.

Quote from RobertBryant

echosystem

The addition of that h is Brylliant!

Quote from Wyttenbach

I simply wouldn't pay any money in that case. Here you get it in less than one day. Currently many folks do make an awful lot of "criminal" money with testing and masks.

After 6 days you are either dead or strongly handicapped for the rest of your live... One more prove for the unscrupulous US medical system.

As said the single mask price was below 10 cents before corona and a test should cost below 200$ what already is way above compared to similar tests.

In some stores the price of masks is still criminal. Thankfully in many places the price is now down to reasonable levels, due to I suppose an increasing supply on the market. I had to make my own mask two days ago because our supply was in the car and the car wasn't around, and I needed to go shopping.

Thankfully the virus test in Canada is free. It is only the blood antibody test (which is not yet here, wow!) which will cost $200 to $400 the last I heard.

Quote from THHuxleynew

There is no second wave, just a continuation of the first which unlike other epidemics has never yet run free through the population.

I'm just repeating the widespread terminology out there. What, do you expect cases to go to zero for months, and then rise to heights, before you call it a second wave?

Quote from THHuxleynew

Without behaviour change it will increase at a high rate, doubling every few days. We know that from history, and serology shows nothing has changed.

We already have behaviour changes; we practise physical distancing, wear masks when appropriate, wash hands, etc.

Quote from THHuxleynew

So what do you want to happen in an ideal Mark U world?

It seems to me that of all the varied economic and social costs changing behaviour, masks + lots of testing are the least expensive. It is people who resist these, or who flout sensible social distancing, who force tighter lockdowns and hit the economy.

Wearing masks is entirely appropriate in certain situations. I take it from your protest that you think it is entirely appropriate to mandate masks for all public indoor spaces, even with low case counts. That is not my ideal world. Perhaps it is yours. In my ideal world, the health system is quick on its feet, ramps up testing capabilities so one doesn't have to wait a week for test results, the health system doesn't deny legacy drugs for patients, and the government health system doesn't mandate this or that supposed health measure on its citizens.

Quote from JedRothwell

I had to get a coronavirus test before treatment for another problem. I can report it stings, but it is not even as bad as a minor flu shot. It stings for a moment. The probe is held and swabbed for 5 seconds. For a half-hour afterwards it still felt a little uncomfortable.

One of my kids went 10 km to get a test yesterday, because one of his friends had just tested positive the day before. The friend is asymptomatic. The procedure was literally a pain in the nose. I've heard that it's going to be about a six day wait to get results. Way too long! My dentist had to postpone my appointment that should have been today, because of all this.

Starting yesterday, Torontonians are required to wear masks when indoors in public spaces. This, despite the fact our daily new cases have decreased for the last two months and are down to 40 a day now, in a city of 3 million people. All in an attempt to avoid a possible second wave. How long this is going to continue, God knows. Not a fan. At least the parks and playgrounds and pools are open.

Quote from Bob#2

One last note. No serous tech company would EVER go to or look at a Rossi demo and call him up the next day. Nor would Rossi EVER had to do such a demo to try and get potential customers. That line of reasoning is very faulty and shows a lack of understanding of how technology companies or companies in general work. Only scammers looking for the easy mark do this type of thing! Puppets and a song? From his condo? Even Frank was stupefied by that! I suspect you already know the truth "deep down".

They wouldn't call him up next day. They would have met with him in person after the 'show'. I view the Stockholm demo more as an excuse to meet Rossi and network among like minded LENR enthusiasts, scientists and potential investors.

Puppets and a song and a dancing plasma and whatnot, from his condo! For me, it's part of the charm. Give me that homespun brew over glossy, slick PR embellishments most any day.

I know both deep down and on the surface that the odds for Rossi having the goods are very, very low. It is a well nigh impossible invention after all. It would take someone very special to succeed, and in such spectacular fashion, as Rossi portends purports. So part of me fully expects Rossi's work to be a largely a dud. Another part of me believes in the man and his work. What can I say, I'm in a superposition of states. Such is the human condition.

Bob#2 : I for one didn't find the QuarkX demo convincing at all, nor did I feel it was it meant to be. One could tell that Matts knew this as well. He knew he was not privy to certain important details he wanted to know. It was what it was. More than anything it seemed like a venue where interested parties could discuss things later in person with Rossi, behind closed doors. If a potential investor made a decision based on that demo, I would be very surprised. I assume they arranged to see more privately and hands on at another place and time. This is the normal course of due diligence. Rossi doesn't owe me anything, and I'm in no position to demand anything from him. He's doing the work, not me. If a person or company has been wronged by Rossi, that's different. I don't think that applies to anyone on this board, but maybe I'm wrong.

Regarding the non fuelled reactor, frankly I'm surprised that you take Rossi literally when he purportedly (by Darden?) exclaimed "the Russians stole the charge!" or something similar. In the past I've yelled out "Who stole the toilet paper!" from the bathroom when the TP bin in the bathroom is empty, and there's none left on the roll. Am I serious about someone stealing TP? Of course not, my yell is a combination of humour and exasperation. To conclude that Rossi actually accused the Russians of stealing a charge in one of the reactors is yet another example of 'facts' removed from context, in my estimation. (Wait. Maybe it was prophetic of the Russians stealing the last US election? The idea that Russians stole the last election should have been a joke, but ... people take it seriously! (Not me))

I was quite intrigued by the dancing ballerina of the SK video demo. To each his own. I think it was RB who proposed it was plasma from a leaky mercury vapour lamp or some such thing. But I've seen no one try to replicate the ballerina. The closest I've seen was a dancing plasma in a microwave chamber, but it was still clearly not the same thing.

No professional PR blast was required for that demo ; Rossi was looking for only a manageable size of customer base which would serve as hosts for Ecat SK field trials, and supposedly he got some. I don't know this is the case, but I believe it is. Yes I fully realize I could be wrong, and Rossi has fooled me and the rest of his fans. If so, it wouldn't be the first time I've misplaced my faith. But then, I've got lots of faith to go around. You lost your faith in Rossi and appear on the whole to be fine, if not a bit sore.

Quote from THHuxleynew

Have you talked to any GOF researchers about this stuff? You seem very acquainted with their thought processes, but I'm just thinking if I were a GOF researcher i'd be thinking differently (not being an evil scientist) so maybe you are wrong?

GOF research labs compete against each other, trying to outdo each other. This is well known, and is not uncommon among labs in general.

If someone didn't know any better, the very term "gain of function" would seem to imply something ... positive. In fact, it is about creating nasty superbugs.

Of what benefit for treatments of SARS Cov-2 has GOF research wrought? There is enough gradations of naturally occurring infectious agents that we should be able to tease apart what makes certain viruses particularly bad, without going all Dr. Frankenstein and deliberately creating new and improved little killing machines.

Quote from Zeus46

Pangolins love scrabbling around in bat faeces. Fact!

Edit: suprisingly enough, there’s been some research on this... “Bat faeces and traces of guano were observed in eleven of the twelve sleeping sites.“ https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/aje.12759

I should have qualified: that it was exactly a portion of the spike protein where recombination occurred - and nowhere else - is very unlikely. Yes, of course, pangolins get viruses from bats!

Quote from THHuxleynew

Indeed.

consider that supposed facts can be strange beasties when they are removed from their viewed in a fuller and proper partial and gut-feeling-induced context.

Consider it a manly form of woman's intuition then.

Quote from THHuxleynew

I'm happy that RaTG13 and BtCoV/4991 probably come from same swab in abandoned mine. I'm happy that in 2012 six miners died of atypical pneumonia. And I'm happy that this should be noted (that the large number of mine bats from which RaTG13 originated contained viral material that induced atypical pneumonia). In addition, I'd note that bats are host to a very large number of human crossover and near-crossover respiratory viruses.

I don't understand how you jump from this to lab generated mutant pandemics?

Let me guess: as a child running across the field you badly twisted your ankle on a rabbit hole, and you've been averse to rabbit holes ever since.

Understand that in 2013, Bat Lady and team published on what was to become RaTG13 :

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5389864/

They were playing around with it in the lab. In 2016, another team was playing around with it in their lab, mixing it with the original SARS spike protein among other things:

https://www.pnas.org/content/113/11/3048

If you were 'happy' that the virus in 2012 could kill some mine cleaners, just think of how overjoyed gain of function researchers were when a closely related virus was recently discovered that was wreaking deadly havoc on pangolins in 2019. They must have been wringing their hands in gleeful anticipation of combining the pangolin CoV with the RaTG13 CoV. After all, this is what they do. It was probably lab material / lab note material like this that was confiscated / destroyed upon the CoVid-2 outbreak. Too soon to publish, if they had planned to at all.

In stark contrast with the original CoV-1 causing SARS, all the components that make up CoV-2 were already being studied in laboratories : the RaTG13 RNA, the pangolin virus RNA, and the exciting prospects (to gain of function researchers) of polybasic furin cleavage sites. The chance of any two of these getting together by chance in nature is extremely slim. The chance of three is almost impossible. But in a gain of function laboratory, again: this is what they do.

Quote from THHuxleynew

Mark, it is too much work: and also for a story to be believable it needs all that work. So alas if you can't remember your sources that is all wasted. Also, "read and heard" as we well know includes a lot of misinformation. That is why otehrs, if they are to come to the same conclusion as you, need to evaluate all the sources for themselves. It is not unreasonable, no more than I do regularly if I'm posting something substantial: I feel it disrespectful to do otherwise.

Please Google this as an experiment:

Yunnan Ratg13 Covid miners pneumonia

and let me know what you get. Maybe you get no results, based on your previous browsing history?

(I get results.) Again, let us know.

Quote from Bob#2

So with the above in mind, I ask you what you place your belief in Rossi on? Is it known evidence or simply wishful thinking? Can you provide me with ANY factual or corroborated evidence of any kind? (Not Rossi says as Rossi says is worthless) Corroborated evidence is fact based, not assumption, wishful thinking or conspiracy.

Do you have ANY factual evidence that Rossi's has or ever had a working reactor, a factory, employees, etc. The only people who had "hands on" experience are the Swedish profs and IH. The Swedish profs have clammed up and do not answer or support their original report and IH has shown via legal, under oath depositions that Rossi was a liar, fraudster and scam artist.

So what say you about the above? (Perhaps Sam12 as well)

Lots to comment on but I'll be painfully brief. Yes, on the face of it, the 'facts' you have presented don't look good for Rossi. But consider that supposed facts can be strange beasties when they are removed from their fuller and proper context. Yes, Rossi has claimed some of his different eCats to be a 'magnificence'. Yet at the same time, or shortly thereafter, he would be less than pleased, although saying that his customers were pleased at the time. I don't know. It's easy for a high temperature device to fail in time. This is why, methinks, he ultimately went small and took a different, plasma focussed approach with the Quark X and imposed his own in-house reliability measures for the thing - the infamous Sigmas. (Afaik the Quark X was not marketed to customers, only the subsequent SK.) About customers, I believe Rossi was telling the truth when he said he had no other customers at the time. What about his former customers? I think that ultimately the devices failed and Rossi quietly moved on. Perhaps his customers were respectful enough to not advertise about it. I don't know. What I know is that Rossi has produced a wide variety of devices over his career. What I can't say I know is if they worked as claimed. Rossi's devices have had various degrees of exposure to engineers/scientists, and only Krivits (afaik) got offended enough by something to rant against Rossi. Maybe the rest are more of a wait and see attitude.

What do I see? I have no 'corroborated evidence' that would satisfy skeptics here. Yes I see the red flags against Rossi. But I also have a gut feeling toward Andrea Rossi, that he's an inquisitive, principled and disciplined man, an extremely competitive sort, and possibly a genius inventor. I'm content to wait and see what happens.

Quote from THHuxleynew

Since unlikley conspiracy theories are occasionally real, I'd like to be able to investigate this hypothesis. Red meat please. If there is any.

Just writing from the top of my head, based on sources I've read and heard over the last month or so. There is enough meat on the bones that you should be able to find the sources to the stories if you care enough to search and dig. (Just don't dig into some mines in southern Yunnan province, specifically Mojiang county.) My main source was a preprint from May or early June I think, and has been submitted to Nature iirc.

Quote from Wyttenbach

According to Chinse sources (people working at the lab) Xi ordered the first day of the virus escape that all probes of CoV-19 and all lab journal immediately get destroyed. So THH you are on the safe side. AS the direct evidence has gone.

The direct evidence may be gone, but the circumstantial evidence is strong for a laboratory origin. One of the mandates of the WIV funding was to find zoonotic potential sources for viral outbreaks and investigate. Flashback to 2012, when 6 people who were cleaning up an abandoned mine in southern Yunnan province were taken seriously ill with pneumonia like symptoms. Three of them died. People from the Wuhan Institute of Virology came to obtain samples and bring them back to the institute. The suspect coronavirus was named and eventually sequenced, making it into a genetic family tree. Fast forward over 7 years to January 2020, and the Bat Lady of WIV says they have a closest match to CoV-2, namely RaTG13, obtained from Southern Yunnan in 2013. This revelation was from out of the blue, supposedly previously unpublished. What she didn't say was that this RaTG13 was identical in sequence to the virus that killed the 3 people in 2012, but now under a different name. Now, RaTG13 is very similar to CoV-2, but not as much in the spike protein. Enter the pangolin coronavirus. I think it was early 2019 when the Chinese authorities intercepted some trafficked pangolins. They were sick. Workers tried to nurse them to health, but they all died. Of a coronavirus. But the spike protein of this virus is almost identical to the one of CoV-2.

All these wild corona viruses lacked one thing though : a polybasic furin cleavage site between the S1 and S2 units of the spike protein, as possessed by CoV-2. Only some distantly related coronaviruses - only 40 percent homologous to CoV-2 - have a polybasic furin cleavage site, as do other viruses like HIV. Happily though, these polybasic sites had been investigated in the last few years in the gain of function virus community, and they were realizing that such sites aided greatly in cell infectivity.

So we have what looks like the backbone for CoV-2 - RaTG13 - the one that killed the three mine cleaners. Its spike protein is replaced by the spike protein of the virus that killed the pangolins. A polybasic furin cleavage site finds its way between the two S subunits of the spike protein. A deadly outbreak then occurs in Wuhan, that happens to be home of a world famous virology institute that just happens to do research in mixing together different viruses to create more pathogenic viruses. Isn't the world just full of coincidences!

Quote from Max Nozin

it is ironic that Dottore is being bested by another psycho crook. I mean the one who allegedly got convinced in his tech by the amount of negative reactions. I just can't imagine any sane investor who would do that.

By the important "client" who was "convinced" to look further into Rossi, I interpret as someone who is using the Ecat SK, not an investor. But who knows. Come to think of it, I haven't heard anything about investing into Leonardo, strangely.

Quote from axil

I have a suspect: to pay them is Andrea Rossi.

Warm Regards,

A.R.

Rossi is jokingly proposing that he's paying for trolls to malign his work, so that others, seeing the undue antagonism, might suspect he really does have something.

What a guy!

Quote from truth

Rossi's supporter mixed and confused energy sources that anyway exists with something does not exist or not work at all (the Rossi's stuff).

A scam is pushing as real an energy source that it does not exist.

Judging from your comment, it's like you actually believe LENR is real! Well that's good.

I never imagined Rossi as riding the coattails of LENR's ahem, decorated past, but rather blazing a trail himself, even recently distancing himself from what is called LENR.