LENR vs Solar/Wind, and emerging Green Technologies.

  • It's why I don't really like Jed's idea of burying trees. Clearing the land would release more methane than capturing and burying carbon.

    I am not sure what you mean by that, but my plan does not involve "clearing" any land. Neither do any of the conventional carbon-capture by reforestation plans. In all of these plans, you begin by planting trees. The trees absorb and sequester carbon as they grow. You leave them alone. Most experts say they sequester less carbon as they approach a climax forest, as shown in this graph. Other experts say they continue to sequester about the same amount with annual leaf production. This is disputed, as I describe in the caption:



    Caption: Tree growth patterns. Culmination in mean annual growth occurs after 40 to 50 years. Some experts think old growth forests continue to sequester carbon. “[W]hether carbon accumulation continues or peaks when net additional wood growth is minimal (in “old-growth” forests) is disputed.” Gorte, R.W., U.S. Tree Planting for Carbon Sequestation. 2009, U.S. Congress: Congressional Research Service.


    Anyway, sometime after they reach climax they begin to die off naturally. Most trees live 30 to 50 years depending on the species. Oak trees live 300 years. You wouldn't plant all the same species, so the entire forest would not die of old age at one time. Over 30 to 300 years, they would all gradually die off.


    Some trees die before the end of their lifespan from insects, drought, being hit by tornadoes or lightning, or being knocked over by other falling trees. The conventional plan is to leave them where they are and let the deadwood pile up, except as necessary to prevent excess fires and to keep the forests healthy. My plan diverges at this stage. I would have small cold fusion powered robots remove most of the deadwood, convert it to charcoal, and bury it. However, I would not "clear" any land. Just remove the dead trees. Most of them; not all. Some rotting deadwood is essential for forest health. The point of using small robots is that they can remove one fallen tree without disturbing the others around it, and without a large road. This would open a spot in the forest where another tree can grow, but it would not be anything like clear-cutting. In other words, it is a gradual replacement of the trees starting 30 years after reforestation, and continuing for 300 years, by which time all of original trees are buried underground in anerobic conditions, but the forest as a whole is as dense as it ever was.


    Of course, some trees would be harvested normally for lumber or pulp. Some oak trees would be cut before 300 years elapses. I am not suggesting that every forest on earth has to be reserved for carbon sequestration only.


    The other big difference between my plan and conventional ones is that I propose cold-fusion powered desalination to convert 3.5 million square kilometers of the Sahara and Gobi deserts back into forested land (about half of the desert land), which is what they were before people over-farmed them and made them into deserts. I would not eliminate the deserts completely, by any means.

  • The point here is that if you do not bury the deadwood, the carbon from it returns to the atmosphere, by fire or by decomposition. The U.S. Forest Service calls this the "Natural Boom and Bust Cycle of Forest Carbon." The conventional plans to sequester carbon by reforestation do not interrupt this boom and bust cycle, so they can only sequester as much carbon as there is in a climax forest. After that, no more additional carbon is sequestered. My plan is to gradually move the carbon underground, interrupting the boom and bust cycle just before the "Carbon release" phase. Here is the Forest Service illustration:



    In the next illustration, the orange line I inserted shows where the robots stop the cycle. This does not decrease the number of live trees, and it does not "clear" the forest any more than a fallen tree clears it.


  • Two articles that IMO represent a warning about overreliance on green before it is mature enough to fully handle our needs. The first is from the state of Texas asking customers to reduce their electricity use, which they refer to as a "conservation appeal". The 2nd about Sri Lanka, and how their President foolishly legislated a green organic farming policy which led -along with a few other factors, to chaos and his overthrow:


    ERCOT Issues Conservation Appeal to Texans and Texas Businesses


    Factors driving the need for this important action by customers:

    • Record high electric demand. The heat wave that has settled on Texas and much of the central United States is driving increased electric use. Other grid operators are operating under similar conservative operations programs as ERCOT due to the heatwave.
    • Low wind. While solar power is generally reaching near full generation capacity, wind generation is currently generating significantly less than what it historically generated in this time period. Current projections show wind generation coming in less than 10 percent of its capacity.

    ‘Complete Collapse’: Here’s How ESG Destroyed One Nation’s Economy | The Daily Caller


    Sri Lanka has been wracked with poverty, inflation and fuel shortages on a massive scale, with the Prime Minister declaring Tuesday that the country has gone “bankrupt,” according to Business Insider. A ban on chemical fertilizers, implemented April 2021 in an effort to promote organic farming, proved the final straw after a string of missteps, decimating Sri Lanka’s primary source of income and forcing it into bankruptcy, experts told The Daily Caller News Foundation.


    “Our economy has faced a complete collapse,” Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe said on June 23, according to CNN.

    The government lifted the fertilizer ban in November 2021, but the damage had already been done, Peter Earle, a former financial markets trader and economist at the American Institute for Economic Research, told TheDCNF.


    “The decision to overnight shift away from synthetic fertilizers was an absolute disaster,” he said.


  • ERCOT Issues Conservation Appeal to Texans and Texas Businesses

    Factors driving the need for this important action by customers:

    • Record high electric demand. The heat wave that has settled on Texas and much of the central United States is driving increased electric use. Other grid operators are operating under similar conservative operations programs as ERCOT due to the heatwave.
    • Low wind. While solar power is generally reaching near full generation capacity, wind generation is currently generating significantly less than what it historically generated in this time period. Current projections show wind generation coming in less than 10 percent of its capacity.

    By the time these 'articles' get written, Act I of the play has already closed out! Here's a graphical recap of the wind today - it was just after 12 "noon", about 1 PM, when wind was minimum today and it picked back up after that -



    Note: Left side of graph is MW, so top scale is 20,000 MW (where MW = MegaWatt)

  • Supply and Demand Curve today - the idea here is to keep a 'margin' between the upper trace and the lower trace. If the traces meet, there is _no_ margin and any generator failure on the ERCOT system will pull down system voltage and frequency *since* there is no margin to replace the lost generation source. When voltage drops below a preset point and/or frequency drops below preset points, under-voltage and under-frequency "relays" kick-in and shed load from and at each generator in the system.


    In Texas, on a day like today, there are in excess of 1,000 power generation units in service, attached to the grid, feeding power into the grid at a multitude of points.


  • Due to solar wind pressure this mirror would need constant flux of fuel for to keep it on metastable L1 point. The force exerted on an 1000 by 1000 metre solar sail, for example, is about 8 Newtons (weight of 80 grams). The permanent force of solar wind pushing the mirror of the size of Brazil (8.5 million square kilometers) will be around 680 tons (roughly the drag of three Proton's RD-275M engines). We should apparently find some way, how to compensate it by gravity. Anyway, the mass of mirror itself will be at least three - four orders of magnitude higher, so it would require thousands of Proton flights for to get such an object on the orbit. BTW if the bubbles will be filled with gas for to keep the mirror in shape, we should somehow cope with meteorites, which would permanently make holes through them.

    Suppose it needs to be taken down again because I don't know, the Sun would have less power at some point.....

  • Jed, the best way to sequester the carbon from those mature forests is to process them into furniture before they die. The tops can be recycled back into the forest. That's pretty much what is done today.

    As far as planting trees, red pines are usually planted in plantations. After 20 years or so three quarters of the trees are removed for pulp. This breaks up the boom or bust. As the remaining pines grow they can be thinned again for lumber. The pines can grow quite large and be long lived.

    The monarch of the forest here is the white pine. They grow tall and are long lived. Check out the Estivant Pines.🤠

  • Polar bears did change their hunting style as there is no more ice for quite a long time. The global warming is now at 1.5C+ and the target for end of century is between 2.5 and 7C+ depending on the back coupling effect of methane from Russian permafrost soil that no longer is frozen...Not to forget the good old carnivore capitalist mafia that did burn done large parts of the forests in Malaysia, Borneo, Brazil. In Canada its done by a neat tiny insect, same in Germany.


    So my advice: Buy a house that stays at least 50 meters above shore level. Sell all properties that is between 0..10 m above shore level. Forget some cities like Amsterdam, Kopenhagen,New York Boston LA, Bay area Sidney Vancouver, etc....


    Some of you will see them sinking as the first chaotic events will shine up soon.

    Living safely and happily about 6 meters above sea level, and not notabe changing at all. Polar bears are thriving! Ice is all around. Again, the only thing that changed is the excessive spraying that has a real effect. Only problem is we have been trained to believe it is a natural / anthropogenic effect. Do you really believe the narrative that all the mainstream spews out? (go ahead anyone, call me a cult member, or conspiracy theorist or just crazy, I am sticking to my story!)
    Those bugs get their chance to kill trees because the trees do not have normal weather, due to blocking the Sun too much and as a real effect to Dimi shined water-cycle. That makes the trees less resistant to the beetles for example who then do the thing they do, eat the unhealthy trees. Have enough of them ill and even the left over healthy trees will not be able to resist the many beetles.

  • New from McKinsey & Company



    Charting the global energy landscape to 2050: Sustainable fuels


    Our Global Energy Perspective 2022 outlines the most significant trends, challenges, and opportunities around the longer-term energy transition—and five potential energy scenarios. The report provides an outlook to 2050 for each energy type and carrier, including hydrogen, sustainable fuels, natural gas, oil, and coal, as well as a view on the role of carbon capture, utilization, and storage (CCUS). In this article, we take a closer look at the role that sustainable fuels will play in de-carbonizing energy systems.

    Meet the moment


    Global Energy Perspective 2022
    We're in the midst of an energy transition that continues to evolve.
    www.mckinsey.com

  • There is not a cloud in the sky, only the stuff the planes leave behind, Is that normal I ask?!

    Since WW2, when "contrails" (literally, "condensation trails") were observed to occur from high-flying aircraft. If you search on the internet, you can find pictures showing fleets of propeller-driven high-flying aircraft leaving contrails in World War 2 ...

  • Two articles that IMO represent a warning about overreliance on green before it is mature enough to fully handle our needs.

    You can say that about any technology. In the 1920s cars were starting to hurt passenger rail service on some routes. But it would have been a mistake to discontinue all passenger rail service, because cars and roads could not carry all passenger traffic yet. By the 1960s, they could. In 1970 it would have been a mistake to manufacture all RAM memory with silicon integrated circuits. Magnetic core memory was still more cost effective for some purposes. It was slower. Integrated circuits were the future, but it wasn't quite yet the time to abandon magnetic core.


    After the introduction of jet engines, there was a interim period of several years in which turboprop engines were the most cost effective for some aircraft, depending on range and the number of passengers. Turboprop engines are still in use. They have mostly been replaced by jet engines. (A turboprop is a turbine jet engine that turns a large propeller. It is simpler and more efficient than a piston engine turning a propeller.)


    Things like coal are obsolete in the U.S., and obsolescent in the Third World. It is time to abandon them and move on to natural gas, wind and solar. Natural gas is far from obsolete, even though solar is substantially cheaper per kilowatt of capacity: $1,329/kW versus $1,376/kW for equipment, not counting the cost of fuel. Add in the cost of fuel and you see that natural gas will be obsolete if cheap battery storage is perfected. Coal ranges from $2,935/kW to $6,599/kW, not counting the cost of fuel, so it is obviously a dead duck.


    Timing is all in technology.

  • Since WW2, when "contrails" (literally, "condensation trails") were observed to occur from high-flying aircraft. If you search on the internet, you can find pictures showing fleets of propeller-driven high-flying aircraft leaving contrails in World War 2 ...

    You can see them made by the tips of helicopter blades, at the right temperature. Just rapid condensation.


    Here are some examples:

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  • after your first post on the subject I mixed up a study from 2008 with what you are proposing and I stand corrected but in my opinion it's a little to late. The major problem facing earth right now is the release of methane from previous frozen regions. Although methane is not long lasting like CO2 it will remain in the atmosphere for roughly 10 years. Methane remediation should be the # 1 battle cry . Good luck with your presentation.

  • Here is an interesting up-to-the-minute example of obsolescent technology. Hard disk sales worldwide are in rapid decline. See:


    Global hard disk drive (HDD) shipments 1976-2020 | Statista
    In 2020, global unit shipments of hard disk drives (HDDs) fell to 260.3 million units, a 17.7 percent fall from the 316.3 million units shipped in the previous…
    www.statista.com


    Unit sales peaked in 2010 at 651 million. By 2020 they declined to 260 million. They are being replaced by SSD's. This is despite the fact that hard disks are still cheaper per byte, and they are still available in much larger sizes, up to 16 TB. You have to look closely at the numbers, energy consumption, speed, longevity and other factors to see why they are declining.


    Obsolescent technology often prolongs its life by borrowing from its upcoming rival. For example, a few years ago there were hybrid hard disks. Mechanical hard disks with small SSD buffers built into them. They were faster than regular hard disks but cheaper than pure SSD's. I see there are still few of them being sold.


    Fast clipper ships were the final flowering of square rigged sailing ships. They were fast. They depended on steam technology. They could not be used without steam tugboats to bring them into port. They borrowed advances in steamship hull design and technology. The last generation of sailing ships built before World War I often incorporated auxiliary steam engines and steam deck engines used to raise and lower gigantic fore-and-aft sails (not square sails)


    Hybrid automobiles such as the Prius borrowed from upcoming electric vehicle technology. Electric cars will soon push them out of the market completely. But, for ten or twenty years they were a good choice. They are much more efficient than pure internal combustion engines (ICE). They often get 50 miles per gallon, which no consumer ICE will ever achieve. Electric cars are clearly the wave of the future. Once they reach 300 to 400 miles per charge, they will rapidly replace ICE and hybrids, because they are inherently cheaper to make, and 4 to 5 times more efficient, so they much cheaper to operate per passenger mile.

  • The major problem facing earth right now is the release of methane from previous frozen regions. Although methane is not long lasting like CO2 it will remain in the atmosphere for roughly 10 years. Methane remediation should be the # 1 battle cry .

    Trees remediate methane as well as CO2. They also produce some methane, which is a surprise. See:


    Scientists Zero in on Trees as a Surprisingly Large Source of Methane
    Recent research is showing that trees, especially in tropical wetlands, are a major source of the second most important greenhouse gas in the atmosphere,…
    e360.yale.edu


    Good luck with your presentation.

    I hope the ICCF24 people will upload these videos. If not, I will write a paper. Promptly. On time. Even before the due date! Unlike most of the people in this field, who shall remain nameless.


    It is a lot of work making a video. I prefer writing papers.

  • Although I agree on electric cars vs hybrid I see a looming problem when the us has 50 million electric cars. Can the grid handle that much consumption each night. At present, not a snowballs chance in hell. That puts nuke plants front and center. Another problem, time to build proposed nuke plants, and cost.

  • Everyone in Japan saw them from the B29 high altitude bombers during the day. The people who lived through the war remember them vividly.

    Right.

    It may be more clear to some that there is no mechanism to deliver substances from the tips of helicopter blades. The video I was actually looking for had beautiful corkscrews of snow coming down from the tips.


    This one is similar.

    https://external-preview.redd.it/w2YtMEuZCUEiZwAKd34PMIasV6FcrEH5e7n53aUb8oU.gif?format=mp4&s=dbced74b83d4a68482a7109578434bfd7a0dc003

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