Over 52k cases so far in the U.S. today. Obviously our Country is struggling with this on a whole other level:
Deleo
Member
- Member since May 10th 2016
- Last Activity:
Posts by Deleo
-
-
Fauci warning that we could see 100,000 cases per day. It looks like we are at about 45k new cases per day right now, but he must see something he doesn't like.
-
It is happening all over - college kids getting it.
There are incredibly large numbers of young people getting infected in the Southern and Western parts of the U.S. The question is what type of interaction will they have with older folks (parents/grandparents) over the next couple of weeks. If the infections spread to an older group of people it could be a serious issue for hospitals.
Also, we don’t know the long term health effects some of these younger people could have from Covid. There could be organ damage and scarring of the lungs etc. It’s just an unknown. But what is going on in the U.S. right now is unreal. There needs to be a stronger effort to contain the spread. -
It appears we are at an R of 1.1 or a bit higher here in the U.S. Florida is running ahead of that.
-
Pretty troubling, Houston is now at 97% capacity on its ICU beds. They need to get the daily cases down quickly or they are going to run out.
-
Yes. The trend in hospitalization in Georgia is ominous. The Healthdata projections show the state will run out of ICU beds by the last week in July:
It looks like there is a coming ICU bed shortage in several States including my own. That should be a wake-up call for everyone. We could be looking at 35k new cases today.
-
Display More
Just started when? A significant increase began on May 27. Deaths have not increased as much.
In the U.S. as a whole, deaths have been declining fairly steadily since around April 30:
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/
That's good news. That has been happening even as total cases remained high. Several reasons have been suggested. I don't have enough statistical information to hazard a guess which is correct. Maybe it is a combination of factors? Maybe they vary from local to another? The main ones I have read include:
1. More testing being done, which reveals more cases. That may be the case in Georgia. It is hard to say. Health officials in Florida and elsewhere say that is not the case, because they are finding more cases per test. It has risen from 8 to 14% percent positive in recent weeks as Florida cases have spiked.
2. Better treatments, so more patients survive. I hope so!
3. More young people getting sick. They survive better. But that is still bad news. See:
Young people in the US South and West are increasingly getting coronavirus
I think that main cause of a lower death rate is that more younger people are testing positive. Perhaps more Doctors are using Dexamethasone or Remdesivir and that is causing more people to survive. It would be interesting to know that.
I saw a story on Florida (which is becoming a major hotspot) where they said the rate of postivity is Increasing. That is a bad sign. If they increased testing dramatically and the rate of positives remained steady, then the positivity rate should actually decrease. It is just one state though, so who knows if that's true elsewhere.
Also, the average age of infection has dipped down into the late 30's. I believe the average age was in the 50's or 60's just a few weeks ago. This may be a major factor in the lower death rate. More young people testing positive and not dying from Covid. The key thing will be to see if these younger adults somehow manage to infect older adults (parents, family members etc.), or if there is some distancing taking place, so that doesn't happen.
-
Just looking at new cases today, I think we are going to be talking about an R of 1.1 to 1.2 in the U.S. soon. Cases are definitely rising in many States and nationally, excluding the NY/NJ region, where they have seen a decline in cases.
Brazil with 50,000 new cases today is heading into uncharted territory with Covid:
-
no, but I don't think that is possible to be sure and without doubts either way on a new virus
I personally have doubts because there are no successful long term vaccines for things like the common coronavirus colds. Notice I a specifically speaking of corona virus and not flu. You arguments based on flu vaccines are not the as relevant applied to corona viruses.
At any rate I have doubts about a vaccine in the short term that will work over long times. Notice I say I have doubts and I did not say it is impossible or unlikely. Those are different things. You seem to try to set up strawmen to push your points.
I understand that sentiment. It's true that scientists have been working on vaccines for years for other corona viruses and haven't produced a working one yet. I think the difference now is that a lot more resources are being thrown at Covid-19. It's a worldwide race to see who wins. That form of competition can be a key difference maker.
This is a good article below on the state of vaccine development. I think they do a nice job in this article providing different views on where we are at with it. I think there will be a vaccine for Covid by the end of 2021, but there is some over-promising (and marketing) going on with the people behind them. But the end of Covid by way of a vaccine will be choppy and there will still be outbreaks in different parts of the world for the next couple of years at least.
-
Display More
Todays Dexamethasone news is very good. Seems way better than Remdesvir, which just seems like a big pharma ploy to me.
I also believe Leronlimab works probably better. I am not sure if that was talked about here before. I can't wait for those results.
(full disclosure, I did invest in Cytodyn, the company behind Leronlimab, but not just for the COVID angle)
I guess I will throw out my Chloroquine Phosphate? Is there any concensus here on that if one takes it upon first becoming infected?
The important thing is a treatment being available for covid induced ARDS. I don't think a vaccine will be a short term solution.
I also think there is a genetic factor for those most susceptible.
My company is working on studies of that genetic angle (Bionano Genomics).
Yeah, no doubt if I or anyone I knew were in bad shape with Covid I would be asking for Dexamethasone. I always wondered how much steroids were being looked at. Glad they did.
This is the biggest drug news since the virus hit. I wonder how it would do in conjunction with Remdesivir.
-
Or store the energy with batteries. They are getting much cheaper, partly because of the electric car market.
I haven't weighed in much on this thread, but I do think that the combination of solar/wind generation with battery storage is the most exciting (or at least hyped) thing going on in the world of solar and wind energy these days.
Either this will take off and become the next big thing or it will be a typical overhyped green energy solution and everyone will lose their shirts in a couple of years. The key is for a battery system to store 1MW for 150 hours. That's the holy grail benchmark-wise. Form Energy, backed by Bill Gates (which everyone here loves) claims they may have done it much sooner than expected with their aqueous air battery system - link below. They are planning to have their first project on-line in 2023. If they pull this off it will be a huge deal for solar/wind.
Just Google Utility Battery Storage Projects and you will see dozens of them going up all over the world.
https://www.greentechmedia.com…heights-150-hour-duration
Here is an article comparing Form and Tesla with their lithium ion batteries
-
I believe this is characteristic of influenza. It intensifies in the fall and winter. I do not know why. But indications are that COVID-19 is not seasonal. It seems to be spreading equally fast in the northern and southern hemispheres.
Also, as the website you pointed to says, in the fall of 1918 many U.S. doctors were absent, being in the Army.
I definitely thought it was a risky move to reopen the economy here in the U.S. in the middle of May. It felt a bit early to do it, especially in Georgia. But things appear to be ok so far. Not great, but no major spike or second wave yet. I think if we see R get to 1.1 or 1.2 for more than a couple of days then there should be reason for concern. And that could happen at any time.
Even though weather doesn't appear to be a big factor with Covid, it seems that as more people start crowding indoor spaces when it gets cold again, combined with some people getting more lax with social distancing, that could be a bad combo. So perhaps we are looking at a low simmer of cases here for the summer and then a possible uptick in the Fall. It's just impossible to know, but I don't think the general population is anywhere near herd immunity, and the virus is still out there. We will be in a waiting game until we get to a vaccine - hopefully next year.
-
The uptick is because of an adjustment. Worldmeters says:
NOTE: Michigan is now reporting probable COVID-19 cases and deaths. These are added to the confirmed ones in order to form the total, as per CDC guidelines. 4,928 probable cases and 240 probable deaths are being added to the Michigan total today. These will be soon redistributed historically based on Michigan's confirmed trends. "Probable cases include individuals with COVID-19 symptoms and an epidemiologic link to confirmed COVID-19, but no diagnostic test" [source]
Yeah, and it appears that they adjusted the cases back down for the day. So now the uptick is not as much as it previously looked to be.
-
Interesting to see a real uptick in cases here in the U.S. today. Over 28k new cases and the day isn't over yet. Is this due to increased testing? Perhaps. But I have always wondered if we were going to hit that 1.2-1.3 multiplier again.
-
There is no data to determine COP from their 24 hour run, because (it seems) the experiment was intended only to show longevity of the reaction and apparatus. Much shorter runs (that were validated) had a COP around 3, but personally I don't like the way the COPs were calculated. It involved only a very small range of water temperature increase, and most of the heat output calculation was based on water mass loss due supposed vapourization. Change of state should be avoided and ignored!
I see now that the same SunCell that did the 24 hour run has now gone to a 32 hour run, just posted today:
https://brilliantlightpower.co…our-duration-suncell-run/
There is a link to a new video.
I look forward to COP calculations from longer runs when they provide the data!
Call me naive but it would seem difficult to fudge the COP calculations to that great of a degree with a 32 hour Suncell run. If there is a COP around 3 for 32 hours that has to be clear as day for that duration, assuming a straightforward setup was implemented. I have been waiting for a COP on a Suncell run this long for a long time. So BrLP what was it?
-
Added to that, recent research indicated up to 60% of people may already have cross-immunity (cross-reactive T-cells) to COVID 19, as a result of being exposed to certain cold (corona) viruses before 2019.
IMO there is still a bit unknown in terms of what immunity means. A worse case scenario where there is no lasting immunity has to be considered.
That means someone who had a mild case of Covid-19 this year could be reinfected and have a much more severe case of it next year. Of the coronaviruses that can infect humans SARS and MERS do likely provide long term immunity. But the other 4 coronaviruses that can infect people do not provide long term immunity.
Hopefully covid goes into the SARS and MERS group with this. -
They short cuted animal tests, is that good or bad? Bad if you catch bad side effects in the animal tests and only risk the human guinnapigs.
I don't like the rush, we are developing in ways that we have not done before, but my friend Murphy tells my not to worry. He did have an evil smile saying it though.
Yeah, developing a vaccine this fast is a bit crazy, probably even reckless on a certain level. It’s never been done this way before. I saw a Doctor talk about what the medical community knew about HIV in the early 80’s and he said for 2 years they didn’t even know what it was, they couldn’t isolate the virus, let alone develop a test for it. They still don’t have a vaccine for it.
All of the hype now is around mRNA vaccines. In 2018 Moderna came out and basically said they have a technology that will change medicine forever (sounds a little like LENR). Of course others are working on mRNA too. But Moderna says they have the underlying tech to develop it. We will see if they are right. -
Display More
Not me. That's what news reports and their press release said.
Everyone developed binding antibodies. Everyone from 25 to 250 mcg. So there does not seem to be a need for the higher dose. It is not clear yet how many developed neutralizing antibodies, which is the kind you want.
Experts were not impressed by the press release. See:
Fauci spoke about it a bit. This morning he said the quote below. His quote is still a bit vague in terms of the participants, but Moderna may really be on to something. It would be amazing if they pulled off a vaccine this fast.
“The vaccine induced what we call ‘neutralizing antibodies’ as opposed to just ‘binding antibodies,’” Fauci explained. “‘Neutralizing antibodies’ are antibodies that actually can block the virus… they did it at a moderate dose of the vaccine. That’s the reason why we thought it would be good news.”
-
https://www.thelancet.com/jour…-6736(20)31180-6/fulltext
This pretty well ends the bullsh*t about hydroxychloroquine with or without a macrolide antibiotic like azithromycin being effective. 96,000 patients reviewed. Across several levels of severity. vs non-treated controls. Results suggest the drugs may make things worse and have no overall benefit.
I can't say I ever saw a study that showed HQL to be effective. But if people want to take it that's fine I guess. I don't know what the motivation would be to stop that, unless it was causing shortages of the drug for people who really need it (perhaps it is).
Based on what I've read the only things that look interesting to me right now are:
1. Remdesivir - provides a small benefit and would likely need to be paired with other antivirals in a cocktail for greater effectiveness
2. Ivermectin - interesting, but it seems to be needed at an extremely high dose to have any effect. So side effects and safety may nullify this one
3. Antibody Shots from Regeneron and others - by far the most interesting antiviral therapy imo. Really cutting edge science and a potential game changer. But it's early. Will need a few more months of development to know the real story.
Then there are the vaccine candidates, (which given the lack of drugs on the shelf that appear to work), are becoming the most interesting option of all imo. I won't be surprised at all to see a vaccine by this time next year being administered to large numbers of people - Moderna, Oxford, J&J and Pfizer have the best candidates at the moment I think.
But it's a long time between now and then and we may just have that dreaded second wave to get through in Nov/Dec of this year. That could be a really tough time, then 2021 is better and hopefully most of us are taking a Covid vaccine.
-
Display More
I will admit this is a questionable source but...……..
https://www.nukepro.net/2020/0…vaccine-test-vaccine.html
Moderna
There Will Be No Vaccine -- Test Vaccine on 15 Humans Put 20% of Those In The Hospital Within Weeks
And only half derived antibodies.....Three of the 15 human guinea pigs in the high dose cohort (250 mcg) suffered a “serious adverse event” within 43 days of receiving Moderna’s jab. ….
three volunteers developed Grade 3 systemic events defined by the FDA as “Preventing daily activity and requiring medical intervention. “ Moderna allowed only exceptionally healthy volunteers to participate in the study.
Yeah, I am not sure about this article. Dr. Fauci was interviewed this morning and he said he has seen a much more complete set of data on the Moderna trial than what is publicly out there and he likes what he sees so far. He said it shows that the vaccine is creating neutralizing antibodies at a normal dose.
Moderna definitely jumpled the gun with their press release. They need to put out the full set of data from their trial for peer review. Fauci said that should happen in the next 2 weeks.
