Deleo Member
  • Member since May 10th 2016
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Posts by Deleo


    I definitely see it differently. Here is an article below about what Tesla is trying to put together. Basically everything they do is focused on bring the cost of battery technology and manufacturing down. Yes, they make fancy sports cars, but their larger goal is to make a battery powered car that will sell for $25,000 in 3 years. To me that is ambitious and would be a great engineering achievement.


    I agree with you on the competition, and that Tesla still needs 3 years to pull this off. That means Volkswagen and Toyota will have three years to achieve the same thing.


    But Tesla has put a lot of money into its supercharging networks. They have a lead there, and that will come into play.


    While the larger tabless batteries that they unveiled yesterday are just a single engineering step forward, it's steps like these that get us slowly into the future.


    Musk made his bet on electric cars, solar, and batteries for grid level storage. Those are good bets right now. You could say he was right. They are the ones that are coming to fruition.


    I want an energy breakthrough like everyone else here, but until someone can commercially produce that breaktrhough, batteries and solar are some of the the best solutions we have.


    https://electrek.co/2020/09/23…attery-puzzle-innovation/

    it would be nice to see Randy do another public presentation and demonstration of this (well perhaps no live audience with Covid). But a livestream demo with questions. BrLP has done this many times before and then they tend to go dark for a bit.


    But I think the setup and reaction they are describing here would generate a lot of interest. There is more power density in this reaction. That’s what people want to see.


    I think this is a serious problem given that there are such a large number of cases and the test results are taking too long to come back for many people. We should be much more intense with testing and tracing. Right now the virus just continues to spread in the U.S. unabated. It's just running through the population in many States. Over 1k deaths today. Unreal.

    It is happening all over - college kids getting it.


    There are incredibly large numbers of young people getting infected in the Southern and Western parts of the U.S. The question is what type of interaction will they have with older folks (parents/grandparents) over the next couple of weeks. If the infections spread to an older group of people it could be a serious issue for hospitals.


    Also, we don’t know the long term health effects some of these younger people could have from Covid. There could be organ damage and scarring of the lungs etc. It’s just an unknown. But what is going on in the U.S. right now is unreal. There needs to be a stronger effort to contain the spread.


    I think that main cause of a lower death rate is that more younger people are testing positive. Perhaps more Doctors are using Dexamethasone or Remdesivir and that is causing more people to survive. It would be interesting to know that.


    I saw a story on Florida (which is becoming a major hotspot) where they said the rate of postivity is Increasing. That is a bad sign. If they increased testing dramatically and the rate of positives remained steady, then the positivity rate should actually decrease. It is just one state though, so who knows if that's true elsewhere.


    Also, the average age of infection has dipped down into the late 30's. I believe the average age was in the 50's or 60's just a few weeks ago. This may be a major factor in the lower death rate. More young people testing positive and not dying from Covid. The key thing will be to see if these younger adults somehow manage to infect older adults (parents, family members etc.), or if there is some distancing taking place, so that doesn't happen.

    Just looking at new cases today, I think we are going to be talking about an R of 1.1 to 1.2 in the U.S. soon. Cases are definitely rising in many States and nationally, excluding the NY/NJ region, where they have seen a decline in cases.


    Brazil with 50,000 new cases today is heading into uncharted territory with Covid:


    https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

    no, but I don't think that is possible to be sure and without doubts either way on a new virus


    I personally have doubts because there are no successful long term vaccines for things like the common coronavirus colds. Notice I a specifically speaking of corona virus and not flu. You arguments based on flu vaccines are not the as relevant applied to corona viruses.


    At any rate I have doubts about a vaccine in the short term that will work over long times. Notice I say I have doubts and I did not say it is impossible or unlikely. Those are different things. You seem to try to set up strawmen to push your points.


    I understand that sentiment. It's true that scientists have been working on vaccines for years for other corona viruses and haven't produced a working one yet. I think the difference now is that a lot more resources are being thrown at Covid-19. It's a worldwide race to see who wins. That form of competition can be a key difference maker.


    This is a good article below on the state of vaccine development. I think they do a nice job in this article providing different views on where we are at with it. I think there will be a vaccine for Covid by the end of 2021, but there is some over-promising (and marketing) going on with the people behind them. But the end of Covid by way of a vaccine will be choppy and there will still be outbreaks in different parts of the world for the next couple of years at least.


    https://www.fiercepharma.com/v…-vaccine-become-a-reality


    Yeah, no doubt if I or anyone I knew were in bad shape with Covid I would be asking for Dexamethasone. I always wondered how much steroids were being looked at. Glad they did.


    This is the biggest drug news since the virus hit. I wonder how it would do in conjunction with Remdesivir.

    Or store the energy with batteries. They are getting much cheaper, partly because of the electric car market.


    I haven't weighed in much on this thread, but I do think that the combination of solar/wind generation with battery storage is the most exciting (or at least hyped) thing going on in the world of solar and wind energy these days.


    Either this will take off and become the next big thing or it will be a typical overhyped green energy solution and everyone will lose their shirts in a couple of years. The key is for a battery system to store 1MW for 150 hours. That's the holy grail benchmark-wise. Form Energy, backed by Bill Gates (which everyone here loves) claims they may have done it much sooner than expected with their aqueous air battery system - link below. They are planning to have their first project on-line in 2023. If they pull this off it will be a huge deal for solar/wind.


    Just Google Utility Battery Storage Projects and you will see dozens of them going up all over the world.

    https://www.greentechmedia.com…heights-150-hour-duration


    Here is an article comparing Form and Tesla with their lithium ion batteries

    https://cleantechnica.com/2020…r-grid-storage-dominance/

    I believe this is characteristic of influenza. It intensifies in the fall and winter. I do not know why. But indications are that COVID-19 is not seasonal. It seems to be spreading equally fast in the northern and southern hemispheres.


    Also, as the website you pointed to says, in the fall of 1918 many U.S. doctors were absent, being in the Army.


    I definitely thought it was a risky move to reopen the economy here in the U.S. in the middle of May. It felt a bit early to do it, especially in Georgia. But things appear to be ok so far. Not great, but no major spike or second wave yet. I think if we see R get to 1.1 or 1.2 for more than a couple of days then there should be reason for concern. And that could happen at any time.


    Even though weather doesn't appear to be a big factor with Covid, it seems that as more people start crowding indoor spaces when it gets cold again, combined with some people getting more lax with social distancing, that could be a bad combo. So perhaps we are looking at a low simmer of cases here for the summer and then a possible uptick in the Fall. It's just impossible to know, but I don't think the general population is anywhere near herd immunity, and the virus is still out there. We will be in a waiting game until we get to a vaccine - hopefully next year.

    The uptick is because of an adjustment. Worldmeters says:


    NOTE: Michigan is now reporting probable COVID-19 cases and deaths. These are added to the confirmed ones in order to form the total, as per CDC guidelines. 4,928 probable cases and 240 probable deaths are being added to the Michigan total today. These will be soon redistributed historically based on Michigan's confirmed trends. "Probable cases include individuals with COVID-19 symptoms and an epidemiologic link to confirmed COVID-19, but no diagnostic test" [source]


    Yeah, and it appears that they adjusted the cases back down for the day. So now the uptick is not as much as it previously looked to be.

    There is no data to determine COP from their 24 hour run, because (it seems) the experiment was intended only to show longevity of the reaction and apparatus. Much shorter runs (that were validated) had a COP around 3, but personally I don't like the way the COPs were calculated. It involved only a very small range of water temperature increase, and most of the heat output calculation was based on water mass loss due supposed vapourization. Change of state should be avoided and ignored!

    I see now that the same SunCell that did the 24 hour run has now gone to a 32 hour run, just posted today:

    https://brilliantlightpower.co…our-duration-suncell-run/

    There is a link to a new video.

    I look forward to COP calculations from longer runs when they provide the data!


    Call me naive but it would seem difficult to fudge the COP calculations to that great of a degree with a 32 hour Suncell run. If there is a COP around 3 for 32 hours that has to be clear as day for that duration, assuming a straightforward setup was implemented. I have been waiting for a COP on a Suncell run this long for a long time. So BrLP what was it?