Next Big Future publish an article about a study showing that China and India could go full nuclear in less than 35 years, and as fast as 10 years
There is an ongoing debate about the deployment rates and composition of alternative energy plans that could feasibly displace fossil fuels globally by mid-century, as required to avoid the more extreme impacts of climate change. Here we demonstrate the potential for a large-scale expansion of global nuclear power to replace fossil-fuel electricity production, based on empirical data from the Swedish and French light water reactor programs of the 1960s to 1990s. Analysis of these historical deployments show that if the world built nuclear power at no more than the per capita rate of these exemplar nations during their national expansion, then coal- and gas-fired electricity could be replaced worldwide in less than a decade. Under more conservative projections that take into account probable constraints and uncertainties such as differing relative economic output across regions, current and past unit construction time and costs, future electricity demand growth forecasts and the retiring of existing aging nuclear plants, our modelling estimates that the global share of fossil-fuel-derived electricity could be replaced within 25–34 years. This would allow the world to meet the most stringent greenhouse-gas mitigation targets.
Of course with LENR coming soon fission will never came back this way, but this is a model of what could happen with LENR.
The way France moved to nuclear energy was by big powerplants of few GW. Current problems with EPR are due to the fact that france did not build any powerplant for few decades, and that competence are to be rebuild. Moreover there was huge political governance trouble since a decade.
With LENR the model of developement will be very different. It will not be big powerplants, even if it could without any problem. This mean that LENR will be no slower than fission to replace 80% of electricity production, and probably even faster for heat production (unlike fission, LENR can be deployed immediately to replace gas, coal, and oil boilers and oven).
Note also that there will be no need of a political will, nor any opposition acceptable from environmentalists, to spread LENR. Capitalism will follow the line of the cheapest solution, of cleanest solution, and will push LENR everywhere, in parallel. No need to borrow money as savings will fund investments, and investors will battle to invest in LENR.
The hypothesis of 10 years transition, once the engineering is stable, seems credible for me.
The only risk factor is desperate opposition by scaremongers. To be controlled.
what is your opinion ? :cookie: