Danish Omicron vs Delta ..unvaccinated and booster cf vaccinated w/o booster.
In Dk the booster is either Moderna of Pfizer
The paper makes the same error as most paper tigers do. Vaccinated do far less testing than unvaccinated. So in reality the figures look much worse the vaccinated. But worse means good as it is a free immunization.
CDC Drops the RT-PCR Test as It Doesn’t Test Both COVID-19 & Influenzas
The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) after December 31, 2021, will withdraw the request to the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) for Emergency Use Authorization (EUA) of the CDC 2019-Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) Real-Time RT-PCR Diagnostic Panel, the assay first introduced in February 2020 for detection of SARS-CoV-2 only. The CDC is providing this advance notice for clinical laboratories to have adequate time to select and implement one of the many FDA-authorized alternatives. As it turns out, the CDC now acknowledges challenges with the PCR test for testing both for COVID-19 and influenza. The CDC seeks to make a combined test that could be used as an assay for influenza and SARS-CoV-2.
After December 31, 2021, the CDC will withdraw the emergency use authorization of the PCR test for COVID-19 testing. The CDC finally admitted the test does not differentiate between the flu and COVID virus.
The FDA shares more on its website for a list of authorized COVID-19 diagnostic methods. For a summary of the performance of FDA-authorized molecular methods with an FDA reference panel, visit this page.
In preparation for this change, CDC recommends clinical laboratories and testing sites that have been using the CDC 2019-nCoV RT-PCR assay select and begin their transition to another FDA-authorized COVID-19 test. CDC encourages laboratories to consider adoption of a multiplexed method that can facilitate detection and differentiation of SARS-CoV-2 and influenza viruses. Such assays can facilitate continued testing for both influenza and SARS-CoV-2 and can save both time and resources as we head into influenza season. Laboratories and testing sites should validate and verify their selected assay within their facility before beginning clinical testing
As Omicron Spreads, Some Research Indicates a Common Regimen Could Possibly Help Defend Against Long COVID
Could the Omicron variant be a gift from Mother Nature? This could very well be the case. After all, it’s looking more and more like a live attenuated vaccine with an exceptionally efficient supply and distribution system. While this imminent surge will break many SARS-CoV-2 new cases records, the surge could wane by Feb. However, dangers lurk around the corner as such rapid community transmission can lead to pervasive infections. Already, reports of more pediatric vaccinations cover the news. Cases rise so fast that none of the stat-tracking sites are even close to keeping up since the spread is unprecedented. However, judging by the low hospitalizations in South Africa, and as now confirmed by the UK, it’s clear that Omicron is less severe. The Delta variant still circulates and, undoubtedly, this pathogen will cause some lingering hospitalizations and death for the next few weeks. Additionally, even though Omicron is much less severe, it will still hit those most vulnerable, i.e., frail, elderly, and immunocompromised. This could help children on the lower socio-economic ladder known to have more health problems associated with the social determinants of health. But the hope is that most people will be impacted much less than previous variants and their vaccine and/or recovered immunity will help protect them. However, with the massive number of cases in such a short time span, the total numbers may still increase in January and that could lead to worsening conditions.
On another positive note, a brilliant TrialSite community member from Orange County, California, shared a case-series-based study investing Long COVID with a variety of goals and assumptions—among others—that Long Covid is the result of persistent microthrombosis seen in COVID-19. They did a great job documenting platelet activated thrombosis in a diverse cohort of COVID-19 patients. They spanned all levels of severity. They correlated Long COVID and this condition with hypertension and dyslipidemia as risk factors. They also found a genetic trait that increased the risks. That study can be reviewed here.
The study team treated 24 patients with Long Covid with dual antiplatelet therapy (Plavix/Aspirin) plus a Direct Oral Anti-Coagulant DOAC (Eliquis). They discovered that all the Long COVID patients’ symptoms resolved during treatment. They also followed labs on these patients and confirmed that their microthrombosis resolved. They provide some excellent mechanism of action information and diagrams about how the microthrombosis and activated platelets stimulate the immune system and cause inflammation.
Some members of the community suggest consulting their physician to learn more about the potential for OTC treatments addressing Long COVID—low dose aspirin and a Nattokinase/Serrapeptase supplement. One study this year investigated Serrapeptase as a possible useful adjuvant for the management of COVID-19. TrialSite will investigate other studies on this topic
Cloth masks might not stop the omicron variant, doctors say
You may want to reconsider your mask choice because of the omicron variant
Cloth face masks might not stop the omicron variant from transmitting between COVID-19 patients, according to health officials
Dr. Asha Shajahan, the medical director of Community Health for Beaumont Grosse Pointe in Detroit, told Fox 2 Detroit that a cloth mask isn’t enough to stop omicron. Instead, people need heavy-duty masks to ward off the variant.
“You want to make sure it’s at least a three layer surgical mask or an N-95 or higher,” she said. “We want to make sure it’s not a cloth mask. A cloth mask does not offer the protection that you need
Single-layer cloth masks aren’t enough to stop the omicron variant, she said. Surgical masks can work, though.
“The purpose for wearing a mask is to offer filtration from the aerosol particles of the virus,” she said.
“If you have a cloth mask you want to make sure it’s at least 2-3 layers, but I would recommend getting a surgical mask that actually has the filters built into the material,” Shajahan said.
This seems to be a running theme among experts. Dr. William Schaffner, a professor of health policy and infectious diseases at the Vanderbilt University School of Medicine, told Health that face masks might not be enough to stop the omicron variant.
“Omicron produces more virus, even than delta,” Schaffner told Health. “So, the masks’ capacity to interrupt or reduce transmission back and forth is likewise reduced.”
But masks aren’t forever. Dr. Rochelle Walensky, director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, told ABC News in December that masks will be dropped once the pandemic comes to an end.
“Masks are for now, they’re not forever,” Walensky told ABC News. “We have to find a way to be done with them.”
Lower Omicron Severity in South Africa Due to Seasonality?
Note that views expressed in this opinion article are the writer’s personal views and not necessarily those of TrialSite.
Dr. Ron Brown – Opinion Editorial
December 29, 2021
The consensus of public health experts is that although the omicron variant of the coronavirus spreads at an exponential rate, the severity of illness associated with the variant is relatively mild. But this observation could be an artifact of testing confounded by seasonality that I have not heard anyone consider, and the public health consensus could be underestimating the potential seriousness of the spreading variant.
Omicron was discovered in November in South Africa among a handful of patients. Located in the southern tip of Africa, South Africa’s November is somewhat similar to May in the northern hemisphere.
Recall that during the last two years, coronavirus cases decreased rapidly in the northern hemisphere during May, allowing many countries to begin reopening in June after lockdowns. This falling case rate coincided with the approaching warmer temperatures of summer.
Seasonality and Artifact of Testing
When initially testing for a new variant, the apparent rapid rise in cases may be nothing more than an effect of the testing catching up with untested cases already prevalent. Once new testing has caught up with identifying prevalent cases, the overall trend of cases at the end of the cold season rapidly begins to fall. I propose that this same seasonality effect may have occurred in South Africa.
Recall also that cases had risen rapidly at the start of the COVID-19 pandemic back in March and April of 2020 as testing first began to identify coronavirus cases, before tapering off into summer. A similar rapid rise and fall of cases occurred here in Ontario, Canada in March and April of 2021 when testing first began to identify the delta variant before tailing off into summer.
Testing for omicron in South Africa in November may have rapidly caught up to the trend of cases already prevalent, and continued to track the trend of falling cases as the weather turned warmer. This artifact of testing gives the appearance that the variant spreads quickly, and just as quickly disappears before doing serious damage.
However, this may not be the case with the current increase in omicron cases at the beginning of the winter in the northern hemisphere. We may find that the omicron variant actually lingers much longer throughout the winter and early spring months, and winds up causing as many severe illnesses, hospitalizations, and deaths as other variants: Omicron, Delta, Alpha, and More: The Coronavirus Variants
Vaccine Protection?
But more of the population is vaccinated this year to protect us from severe illnesses, hospitalizations, and deaths. Except we won’t know how effective the vaccines are in these cases until severe illnesses, hospitalizations and deaths begin to increase toward the end of winter and early spring, as they do each year.
Judging by the ineffectiveness of the vaccines to prevent mild coronavirus infections, my expectations of the vaccines’ success in preventing more serious infections are low.
If the same number of severe illnesses, hospitalizations, and deaths occur by the late winter and early spring among the vaccinated population as occurred in previous years when we had fewer vaccinations or no vaccines at all, that could be the final nail in the coffin of the COVID-19 vaccines
Very accurate discussion of the UK omicron situation. You can see how multi-layered the situation always is. It would be good to have this complexity acknowledged and discussed here from a more antivaxxer-friendly point of view - where real arguments could be noted and considered. The "OMG - COVID rate is going UP/DOWN and therefore VACCINES/MASKS/IVERMECTIN are GOOD/BAD" does not cut it.
The change in rate of increase seems likely down to 25-somethings with high number of contacts (clubbing etc as well) and 50+ with much lower number of contacts.
But all is still unclear till Jan when everyone goes back to work and school. Work at home advice will reduce number of people actually at work, which will help.
It is barely three weeks ago that Omicron infections were more than doubling every two days. If that rate of increase had continued we would be close to 1 million infections per day by now. Even the Christmas holiday cannot explain the difference between that estimate and the most recent reported infection numbers for England of 117,000. On the other hand, hopes from before Christmas that we may have seen the epidemic peak were almost certainly premature. Overall cases are still increasing, and we haven’t seen the worst daily report yet, but the lower rate of increase means a lower eventual peak than previously thought.
Drilling down into the data we can see large changes in how the epidemic has moved through different age groups. In mid-December infections increased most rapidly in the 20-to-40 age group, however in the last few days before Christmas there was a dramatic slowing in the rate of increase in that group. By contrast infection rates in the 50+ age group were relatively flat for the first half of December but in the 10 days before Christmas the rate of increase in infection rates in this age group increased substantially.
This older age group is far more likely to be admitted to hospital, and so admissions have risen in recent days, as has the number of beds occupied by people with Covid in England: currently 9,546 compared to 6,434 two weeks previously, a 48% rise. But the number of patients with Covid occupying mechanical ventilation beds remains fairly level and is actually below what it was a few weeks ago. The most recent data for England was 758 on 28 December, compared to 795 two weeks previously.
Deaths within 28 days of a positive Covid test are still falling slightly, but we would not expect to see any impact on the death statistics from the recent rapid rise in Covid for another couple of weeks.
How the next few weeks – never mind the next few months – play out in the UK is still far from clear. Even though the Omicron variant appears to be less severe than Delta, and for many the infection is just a mild, cold-like illness, that is clearly not the case for all. Ultimately the amount of pressure on the NHS will depend on how many people become ill enough to be admitted to hospital and that will depend on how high infection rates go, especially in the older age groups.
If, as was the case in South Africa, cases increase very rapidly, peak and fall rapidly then the pressure on the NHS may be short-lived and manageable. But the epidemic in the UK may not follow what happened in South Africa.
So where does this leave us with knowing how to best manage as we move beyond new year? It all depends on how much pressure Omicron will place on the health service at its peak and how long that period of high demand lasts. We probably won’t know until a week or so after the holiday period what is likely to happen in January and beyond.
Interventions and measures that reduce the transmissibility of an infection will reduce the peak but are often associated with a longer-lasting epidemic – people who are susceptible simply become infected later, rather than all at once. In other words, social distancing measures may not prevent but only delay infections.
In addition to reducing the height of the peak – and thus the immediate pressure on the health service – there can be other important gains from delaying infections, especially if new treatments or new vaccines are expected that will substantially reduce death or severe disability. This time, though, there is nothing likely to make a big difference expected soon.
Another complicating factor is that the effectiveness of the vaccines versus infection declines with time. Recent data from the UK Health Security Agency suggests that the protective effect of the booster shot may be waning after about 10 weeks. Its effectiveness against severe disease is more durable than effectiveness against mild infection, but will still decrease with time.
As always, interventions are a matter of fine timing. It is still not clear how this new Omicron-dominant wave will play out. Earlier this week the UK government chose not to introduce new measures before the new year, instead adopting a wait-and-monitor approach as long as hospitalisations remained relatively low. The US CDC recently reduced the recommended isolation period for people with a positive Covid test – but no symptoms – from 10 to five days. This may indicate a new preference for less restrictive policies if soaring infection numbers no longer necessarily mean mass hospitalisation and death.
Omicron Origin: How Is This Not Being Discussed?
First known Omicron cases discovered in Botswana were found in “foreign nationals on a diplomatic mission.”
The Worm
Dec 28
The dominant theory surrounding the new Omicron variant’s abnormal mutations posits that they likely emerged after incubating in an immuno-compromised person for many months. This could also explain that fact that Omicron does not share lineage with other COVID variants, its most recent ancestor dating to March 2020. While this theory does have precedence, there is troubling evidence of a different origin.
Omicron’s most recent ancestor dates back to March 2020. (Credit: Chief Nerd)
I’m sure you have seen the above graph. What you may be unaware of are some key details contained in a Botswana press release discussing the newly discovered variant (earliest known Omicron cases discovered in Botswana). In one statement made on November 26, 2021, the Botswanan Ministry of Health and Wellness revealed that Omicron “was detected on four foreign nationals who had entered Botswana on the 7th November 2021, on a diplomatic mission. The quartet tested positive for COVID-19 on the 11th November 2021 as they were preparing to return.” It’s important to note, these diplomats were in Botswana for only four days, and in this short span they managed to become patients zero, one, two, and three of the latest and greatest COVID strain?
It does not specify which country these “foreign nationals” belonged to. Why would this be and how is the media not interested in finding out? The natural speculation is that this mystery country is China, and Botswana is being pressured not to breach anonymity. Botswana has a history of indebtedness to China, so naturally they would not wish to disrupt this relationship by blaming China for yet another outbreak. Presumably, if the origin country were not China, Botswana would disclose the name as it’s in the interest of public health.
If this variant did originate from China (which seems like Occam’s razor when you weigh the alternatives), this would imply these “diplomats” were intentionally used as vessels for the release of the new variant, strategically pinning Botswana as the country of origin.
Igor Chudov eloquently discusses the potential implications surrounding Omicron if it is, indeed, a bioweapon. But boy do I hope it’s not and that this article looks like conspiratorial garbage in a couple weeks!
Death by lack of peer review...
Never send a relative to a hospital for CoV-19 treatment if you don't plan a heritage...
UK:: for 29Th December 183k cases https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/
But deaths are melting down! Decrease by 1/3 already!
Could the Omicron variant be a gift from Mother Nature? This could very well be the case. After all, it’s looking more and more like a live attenuated vaccine with an exceptionally efficient supply and distribution system.
We can hope this, but attenuated vaccines don't put people in hospital: UK evidence is that omicron does.
In the Uk we are just moving from omicron in young (almost no hospitalisation) to omicron in old (some hospitalisation). We are not yet sure how muhc, for elderly (almost all vaccinated) people. You can see the London Omicron uptick. Cases have stabilised - but that is because infections amongst younger age groups, which increase very quickly, have mostly finished. But, older age groups are now getting infected, less quickly (fewer contacts - not those indoor nightclubs and raves) and as infections move up in age so hospitalisations / infection increase.
So we just don't yet know what will happen after Christmas...
BTW - before omicron deaths were going down because of the very fats booster campaign, we now have most of the at risk population boostered recently.
It does not specify which country these “foreign nationals” belonged to. Why would this be and how is the media not interested in finding out? The natural speculation is that this mystery country is China, and Botswana is being pressured not to breach anonymity. Botswana has a history of indebtedness to China, so naturally they would not wish to disrupt this relationship by blaming China for yet another outbreak. Presumably, if the origin country were not China, Botswana would disclose the name as it’s in the interest of public health.
If this variant did originate from China (which seems like Occam’s razor when you weigh the alternatives), this would imply these “diplomats” were intentionally used as vessels for the release of the new variant, strategically pinning Botswana as the country of origin.
extreme paranoia here.
While unintentional lab release of original COVID remains possible - and was always so - deliberate release of a new covid variant - or indeed anything covidy, is the stuff of paranoid nightmares, and highly implausible.
UK:: for 29Th December 183k cases https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/
But deaths are melting down! Decrease by 1/3 already!
Look at the hospitalisation vs time graph and compare it with the deaths vs time graph immediately above. Hospitalisations have only just started to climb. So it is too early to know. London deaths are flat slight increase (you need London as from prev graph of hospitalisations to see a week or 2 ahead of the rest of the country what is happening). In addition we have the young people first infection effect, which means that initial hospitalisations will be less likely to lead to death because from young people. It is all to play for as infections move to elder population.
All this covid look at time dependence of cases, hospitalisation, deaths stuff is complicated and multifactorial - simple analysis usually goes wrong.
We can hope that omicron death/hospitalisation ratio is lower than delta - but it is not clear yet.
A bit scary, because this can happen with a mild COVID infection. The (1.2M / 70M in UK) figures for long COVID are mostly I hope fairly mild symptoms, and nothing like this. I am however not certain.
These symptoms are life-changing (in a bad way) and may not go away. The unanswered question is how many of these walking dead do we have. No-one seems to want to count it accurately.
"We know that people who were not hospitalised with acute Covid have gone on and been more impaired and we should be concerned about that," he says.
Vaccines are undeniably helping prevent death and severe illness but scientists do not know yet if they protect against long Covid, he says.
Many young people with long Covid have not been able to return to work, he adds, and this has had a major impact on their health, wellbeing and the economy.
He believes the best way to prevent it is to "avoid getting infected in the first place and keep the infection rate down", which will not be achieved with a vaccine-only approach, he says.
"I would love to see more consideration, debate and acknowledgement of long Covid from our policy-makers," he says. "If you only measure deaths you miss out the impact on peoples' lives. We should know better than this."
Well,
Tested positive Tuesday.
Am fully vaccinated, boosted, retired (at 65 don’t really have anywhere to go), so hard to figure out where I got this from, always wear a mask, social distance etc.
Girls all negative so far.
Slight headache, few chills, but very congested, actually feels like a head cold.
Very thirsty, juice, water and soup, sleeping good.
Hopefully we find out that omicron is highly contagious but not deadly to anyone, (vaccinated or not).
After 70 section of"vaccine deaths" it is clear that some people that get circulating spike RNA in their blood vessels can die from an autoimmune reaction.
Lets hope that only a small fraction is affected!https://doctors4covidethics.or…ads/2021/12/end-covax.pdf
Display MoreWell,
Tested positive Tuesday.
Am fully vaccinated, boosted, retired (at 65 don’t really have anywhere to go), so hard to figure out where I got this from, always wear a mask, social distance etc.
Girls all negative so far.
Slight headache, few chills, but very congested, actually feels like a head cold.
Very thirsty, juice, water and soup, sleeping good.
Hopefully we find out that omicron is highly contagious but not deadly to anyone, (vaccinated or not).
Good luck, you will be fine. (So say the statistics - and as you know they never lie).
After 70 section of"vaccine deaths" it is clear that some people that get circulating spike RNA in their blood vessels can die from an autoimmune reaction.
Lets hope that only a small fraction is affected!https://doctors4covidethics.or…ads/2021/12/end-covax.pdf
The problem is this. When I've actually got enough detail to check your posts here, they have mostly been antivaxxer propaganda - based on easy to see statistical fallacies etc.
And, because you do not give us complete and coherent argument - to work out that the stuff is wrong - I'd need to wade through masses of antivaxxer garbage, work out in detail the argument you do not provide, and then find the source evidence to prove it wrong.
I've done it once or twice.
This time - I'll just say that anyone can die of an auto-immune reaction from anything, including eating a banana, taking ivermectin, etc. But it is very rare.
Clowns are affected. This is a bad sign. I will wait for the section result of our clown...
Slight uptick in cases in India. https://www.mygov.in/covid-19
But still no deaths in the early ivermectin states. Kerala is now doing better with cases but still has to report tons of old vaccine deaths....
Will be interesting to see whether the "ziverdo" prophylaxis can catch up with Omicron speed.
Good luck, you will be fine. (So say the statistics - and as you know they never lie).
Uh oh
