LENR vs Solar/Wind, and emerging Green Technologies.

We are screwed...no cable capacity.

From next year, engineers will need to roll out more than 100km (62 miles) of electric cabling every day until 2040 if the government hopes to power the UK towards its climate goals, according to new data.

Analysis of Britain’s existing power grids and the country’s predicted electricity demand reveals that within the next 17 years, more than 600,000km of electric lines will need to be either added or upgraded across the UK.

The research, carried out by the International Energy Agency (IEA) and shared with the Observer, lays bare the scale of Britain’s infrastructure challenge, even as energy companies prepare to speed up the building of pylons, power lines and undersea cables.

This surge in electrical infrastructure will be a critical step in the government’s plan to wean the economy off fossil fuels and create a net zero nation by 2050. Challenges will include overhauling government policy and securing supplies of the high-voltage cables needed.

Fatih Birol, head of the IEA, has urged governments worldwide to “open their eyes” to the scale of the task facing them.

Advanced economies will need to lay at least 23 million kilometres of power lines by 2040 to meet their renewable energy goals, according to a recent report, and on a global level, 80m km of cable will be needed.

“If we want clean electricity, we need not only clean methods of generation, but we need to build grids. It has been a blind spot of governments’ clean energy transition programmes of,” said Birol.

Here is something else from the EIA. The main source of electricity in the U.S. as of 2022 is wind, nukes and "other" renewables:

Wind was second-largest source of U.S. electricity generation on March 29 - U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

Natural gas + coal: 48%

Wind, nukes and other: 52%

I installed a 2.5 kw grid tied PV system in 2002. The inverter just failed, but in 22 years of service it yielded 69 MW-h, for an average of 8.6 kW-h per day. I'm happy with that result.

For around the same cost as my original system, I can replace it with new panels and inverter with nearly twice the capacity. That shows the amazing drop in PV cost since 2002.

I'm getting bids on a new system and will sell or donate the old panels which are still yielding about 75% (90 watts each).

U.S. summer generating capacity is a little less than 1,200 GW. So the 62.8 GW of generating capacity additions scheduled for this year are roughly 5% of U.S. summer generating capacity. See:

Electricity generation, capacity, and sales in the United States - U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

Scroll down to the graph titled, "U.S. electricity generation capacity by major energy source, 1990, 2005, and 2022." Units are million kilowatts = gigawatts. This shows that U.S. sources of electricity have changed dramatically since 1990. If cold fusion is introduced, sources would change even more dramatically over the next 30 years. Even big ticket technology such as power generation changes faster and more readily than you might think. Things like hydroelectric dams last for decades. There is a 16 MW one near my house that has been in operation since 1904 (https://www.georgiapower.com/c…rgan-falls-info-sheet.pdf). But coal and natural gas plants wear out in 30 to 50 years. If they become uneconomical before that, they are soon scrapped, or they are run at a fraction of capacity.

The 62.8 GW of additions is partly replacement capacity for old generators that are being retired, and partly increased capacity. Most coal plants are scheduled to be retired soon. In 2024, 5.2 GW of generators are scheduled to be retired:

Retirements of U.S. electric generating capacity to slow in 2024 - U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

This is for utility scale generation. Rooftop solar is not included. It is beginning to produce a significant fraction of electricity, especially in Hawaii. It is 39 GW nameplate:

Record U.S. small-scale solar capacity was added in 2022 - U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

Quote from JedRothwell

Power companies are adding solar power because it is cheapest.

The Lazard. report states.the LCOE of residential solar is $117-$282 /MWhr.

US installation costs seem expensive

In Australia the LCOE is still falling. it was $69/MWhr in 2020

but is still falling

"The cost of residential rooftop PV electricity (known as the levelised cost of electricity, or LCOE) in Australia declined steeply in the period 2010-2020, falling to USD 0.069 per kilowatt hour (kWh).https://www.google.com/url?sa=…Vaw06_1wNrn3uiTkeNH1NCywO

Quote from RobertBryant

In Australia the LCOE is still falling. it was $69/MWhr in 2020

but is still falling

"The cost of residential rooftop PV electricity (known as the levelised cost of electricity, or LCOE) in Australia declined steeply in the period 2010-2020, falling to USD 0.069 per kilowatt hour (kWh)

I cannot find that quote in the document you cite. But anyway, is $69 subsidized, or unsubsidized? Lazard's $117 is unsubsidized. That is, the actual cost. It does seem kind of high.

The next page shows U.S. Federal Tax Subsidies. As you see, that brings rooftop solar down to $74, close to Australia. So I suppose the $69 you cite is subsidized.

Quote from JedRothwell

So I suppose the $69 you cite is subsidized.

probably.. but the subsidy. is reducing though. down in 2024 to $2000 AU$. for a 5MW system

(unsubsidised cost. 7000-10,000) 1AU$=0.65USD

Of course. without a battery or an electric car much of that Mwh. goes to waste in the daytime

in a residential address

so the realistic figure for $/effectiveMWh is maybe 2-3x more than $69/MWh.

that's where industrial scale solar has an advantage ..as in Texas..the green state

Quote from RobertBryant

Of course. without a battery or an electric car much of that Mwh. goes to waste in the daytime

in a residential address

In the U.S. installations it goes to the grid. Nothing is wasted. Quote:

"Net metering is the system that counts inflows of electricity from the grid and outflows generated by rooftop panels, enabling solar owners to build up credits for the excess electricity produced by panels during the day."

In Hawaii, the power companies have been dragging their feet and not installing solar hook-ups. Some people are fed up, and they are cutting off the power company and using only rooftop solar. In that case, the electricity is wasted.

Quote from JedRothwell

it goes to the grid.

my 'wasted' was inexact

the unused daytime electricity isn't wasted in Oz. it goes to the grid

but the power companies only pay back 5 US cents/Kwh. while they. charge 23 c/Kwh..

.. the grid has overheads to pay..

Quote from RobertBryant

In Australia the LCOE is still falling. it was $69/MWhr in 2020

but is still falling

May be Australia uses dirt cheap Chinese crap solar modules with halve the live time power production of the USA ones...

Quote from RobertBryant

but the power companies only pay back 5 US cents/Kwh. while they. charge 23 c/Kwh..

.. the grid has overheads to pay..

In the Chilean system of grid tied home solar power generation we are charged around USD 18 cents per kWh consumed and we get paid around USD 3.8 cents per injected to the grid.

Quote from Curbina

In the Chilean system of grid tied home solar power generation we are charged around USD 18 cents per kWh consumed and we get paid around USD 3.8 cents per injected to the grid.

Don't support the energy mafia and invest in more battery storage!

Quote from JedRothwell

In the U.S. installations it goes to the grid. Nothing is wasted. Quote:

"Net metering is the system that counts inflows of electricity from the grid and outflows generated by rooftop panels, enabling solar owners to build up credits for the excess electricity produced by panels during the day."

In Hawaii, the power companies have been dragging their feet and not installing solar hook-ups. Some people are fed up, and they are cutting off the power company and using only rooftop solar. In that case, the electricity is wasted.

net metering is an unfair advantage to solar panals owners as rates go up for non panel households. A lot of states are trying to do away with net metering

Quote from Fm1

net metering is an unfair advantage to solar panals owners as rates go up for non panel households. A lot of states are trying to do away with net metering

If you live south of 34 degree north you don't need the grid anymore if you have a suitable battery. You could also produce Hydrogen with excess current or charge EV's for others...

So we must fully understand that the grid for many regions will be an outdated technology, but once CF produces dirty cheap current the grid is in again.

As long as power companies are not state owned it's ridiculous to discuss rate increases that are simply pirate methods to get higher bonus....

Quote from Wyttenbach

If you live south of 34 degree north you don't need the grid anymore if you have a suitable battery. You could also produce Hydrogen with excess current or charge EV's for others...

So we must fully understand that the grid for many regions will be an outdated technology, but once CF produces dirty cheap current the grid is in again.

As long as power companies are not state owned it's ridiculous to discuss rate increases that are simply pirate methods to get higher bonus....

states south of 34 degree north for the most part are required by law to be tied to the grid in the US. Exceptions for very rural areas. Congress is waking up to the scam they created with net metering and subsides passing the cost on to taxpayers not receiving any benefits from them

Here are some details about coal fired plants being retired:

"Nearly a quarter of the operating U.S. coal-fired fleet scheduled to retire by 2029"

Nearly a quarter of the operating U.S. coal-fired fleet scheduled to retire by 2029 - U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

There are ~200 GW of coal fired plants. They have been retiring at about 9 GW per year. You might think that at that rate the last one will go in 22 years. I don't think so! I do not think it would be economical to have one last coal mine working, and one last set of rail cars hauling coal, and one factory producing replacement parts for the last remaining coal fired generator. You cannot scale down this kind of technology. Obsolete technology tends to decline slowly, and then precipitously in the last phase. Something happens to make it no longer viable. Sailing ships declined gradually from the 1860s until 1918, then suddenly disappeared because there were many surplus steamships made for the war. Old computer equipment might still work, but you can't get replacement parts. I had to give up my ultra-reliable first generation HP laser printer when ink cartridges were no longer made.

I predict that cold fusion generators will replace power company generators and household heating and air conditioning (with co-generation). I predict it will happen slowly at first, and then gradually faster, and then suddenly, as the remaining power companies lose so many customers they can no longer maintain their grid distribution infrastructure. A grid designed to serve a million customers cannot be maintained to serve only a hundred thousand. A gigawatt nuclear power plant cannot be run cost effectively to produce only 100 MW. Older coal fired plants designed to produce baseline power 24 hours a day are now being retired because they are only run a few hours a day. They cannot compete with combined cycle gas, or solar. Maintenance, personnel and other overhead costs are still high even when they are hardly used.

EV will slowly replace gasoline models until sales of gasoline fall about 20%. When that happens, gas stations will begin to close everywhere. Their profit margins are small. It will become increasingly difficult to fuel a car in your neighborhood or on a low traffic highway. It would be like trying to find leaded gasoline today. Leaded gas is available for farm equipment and marine engines, but it is only sold at three gas stations in Atlanta. Holdout customers will be forced to buy EVs whether they want them or not. The same thing will happen if cold fusion cars are made.

Quote from Fm1

Congress is waking up to the scam they created with net metering and subsides passing the cost on to taxpayers not receiving any benefits from them

Worst was Germany that did bribe the conservative voters with a net margin of 10..20% for PV current delivered to the state.

OK Germany anyway is the most systemic corrupt country in West Europe as they do the same thing for the car mafia too...and did implement a destruction plan for the railway system...

But rural Germany still misses mobile access points not even talking of www...

In Switzerland PV current delivery is honored with about 8..10 cents at least! Why? Local current does not block the global grid. They can re-sell it for almost no additional cost.

Quote from JedRothwell

A grid designed to serve a million customers cannot be maintained to serve only a hundred thousand.

Think about the electric wires in Atlanta, GA. In ice storms, tree branches often fall on them, knocking out power for hours or days. Trucks full of skilled workers are dispatched to fix them, even in the middle of the night. Cars sometimes knock over polls. Okay, now imagine that 9 out of 10 houses in Atlanta disconnect from the power lines. They have their own cold fusion generators. They no longer pay $1,380 per year to the power company. The problem is, the remaining customers are scattered around Atlanta. The power company needs as many polls and wires as it did when everyone was connected. Tree branches fall on power lines just as often as they did before. Trucks and work crews have to be dispatched as often as before. But revenue has fallen by 90%. That is untenable.

If you could somehow gather all of the remaining 10% of the customers in one place, and abandon 90% of the distribution grid, perhaps you could make this work. After the introduction of personal computers, the sales of typewriters fell to practically nothing. Despite that, you can still buy a typewriter, and you can still have one repaired. Why? Because all repairs are done by a handful of remaining typewriter stores. There is one in Atlanta, and at least one in New York City. If you live in a city where there are no more typewriter stores, you ship your typewriter to New York and have it fixed. In other words, you can gather together the remaining typewriter customers in one place, and serve them all with one store. You can't do that with electricity. Or with automobiles, or gas stations. You cannot mail your automobile to New York City for servicing.

There are 4.5 million houses and apartments in greater Atlanta. You might wonder how we could maintain 4.5 million cold fusion generators. The same way we maintain 4.5 million space heating furnaces, 4.5 million hot water heaters, refrigerators, washing machines, and so on. If your furnace goes out in winter, you call for emergency service. Middle class people usually have a service contract with regular maintenance, so the furnace seldom fails. When it is old and on the verge of failing, the service company tells you, and recommends you replace it. There are enough furnace and air conditioning (HVAC) companies in Atlanta to keep everyone's furnace working just about all the time. In the future, I expect these same companies will maintain cold fusion co-generators. They will be roughly as reliable as today's furnaces, and they will last about as long (15 to 20 years).

I expect the first cold fusion co-generators will cost hundreds of thousands of dollars, and they may be very complex and difficult to maintain. But inevitably they will become much cheaper and more reliable. Look under the hood of a Prius and you will see a combination gasoline motor and electric generator/motor. It is immensely complex. You can see from the number of parts and tolerances that this could only be assembled by a robot. During operation, it is controlled by a complex computer. If someone tried to make a machine like this in 1975 it would have cost millions of dollars. It would have taken a team of experts to operate, like a Apollo rocket. Nowadays, of course, it is no more expensive to maintain than a gasoline motor, because the maintenance diagnostics are done with a computer. It is like a digital watch; most of the parts cannot be fixed or replaced. I expect cold fusion generators will be similar.

The first hybrid gasoline-electric cars were made around 1911 as I recall. You can make a simple hybrid car, without modern computer controls. But it would not be suitable for today's market. I doubt it would even be legal. It might be possible to make a simple cold fusion generator, but I do not think anything like this would be allowed in a first world country. Consumers and regulators will demand a modern, computer controlled machine, with a display screen and computer diagnostics. It will have to have built in safety devices making it far safer and more reliable than a gas fired furnace. If there is the slightest chance it might produce tritium, it will have to have tritium detection and automatic shutdown. Fortunately, that should cost about as much as a smoke detector.

People always demand higher standards from new technology, than from existing technology. It has to be safer, cheaper, more reliable, longer lasting. That is reasonable. There would be no point to introducing a new technology if it was only as good as existing versions.

Quote from JedRothwell

The power company needs as many polls and wires as it did when everyone was connected. Tree branches fall on power lines just as often as they did before

Then they will offer subsidised cold fusion generators to the last 10% - because it's cheaper than maintaining the rural grid. I believe that's how capiralism is supposed to work,

Quote from Alan Smith

Then they will offer subsidised cold fusion generators to the last 10% - because it's cheaper than maintaining the rural grid.

I predict they will be bankrupt long before they reach the last 10%. I just used that number to illustrate what I have in mind. I do not know enough about the economics of a power company to judge where the breaking point would be.

Saying the power companies might subsidize their final group of customers to go with the competition is like suggesting that the last passenger railroads in the 1970s would buy automobiles for their customers. There would be no incentive for them to do that.

The customers would not accept power company cold fusion generators in any case. They would buy them directly from suppliers. I expect cold fusion generators will be sold by HVAC companies and large hardware store chains such as Lowe's and Home Depot, like today's furnaces and water heaters.

Telephone companies today are transitioning low density rural customer from landlines to cell phone service, so they can abandon their landline network. They still get revenue from cell phone service, so there is an incentive for them. It is not as if they are handing over their customers to a competitor.

It is true that power companies today offer Home Energy Improvement assessments. They come in and tell you to install LED lights and to improve your insulation. This is contrary to their interests. It causes them to lose some revenue. But the lost revenue is small, and the PR value of supporting environmentalism is high. If their Home Energy Assessment magically reduced power consumption by half, or by 90%, they would stop doing it! If it resulted in losing 100% of their business, as it would with a cold fusion generator, they would never do it.

Home Energy Improvement Program | Single Family

Learn how to reduce energy use, cut energy costs and improve indoor air quality with the Home Energy Improvement Program.

www.georgiapower.com

People have suggested that cold fusion generators will still need the power company grid for various reasons. Such as --

They say the generator may not be large enough to power the entire house. Why wouldn't it be? A full home natural gas backup generator is not large. There is a photo of one here: https://lenr-canr.org/acrobat/RothwellJmoreaboutw.pdf

They say the generator may not be reliable, and it will need the grid in case it fails. I don't see why it would be less reliable than a furnace or refrigerator. People do not keep a spare furnace in case one breaks. However, even if cold fusion generators are not reliable and need the grid for a week or so per year, that will not bring in significant revenue to the power company. The power company cannot survive as an occasional backup source of power.

They say you will need mains electricity to start up your cold fusion generator. Oh come now!