Covid-19 News

1st Official Post
    • Official Post

    Very off topic, but newsworthy.


    The Lancet:



    In our baseline scenario, we estimated that the basic reproductive number for 2019-nCoV was 2·68 (95% CrI 2·47–2·86) and that 75 815 individuals (95% CrI 37 304–130 330) have been infected in Wuhan as of Jan 25, 2020. The epidemic doubling time was 6·4 days (95% CrI 5·8–7·1). We estimated that in the baseline scenario, Chongqing, Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen had imported 461 (95% CrI 227–805), 113 (57–193), 98 (49–168), 111 (56–191), and 80 (40–139) infections from Wuhan, respectively. If the transmissibility of 2019-nCoV were similar everywhere domestically and over time, we inferred that epidemics are already growing exponentially in multiple major cities of China with a lag time behind the Wuhan outbreak of about 1–2 weeks.
    • Official Post

    The amount of disinfo and speculation on this topic is riveting. However, the strong reaction of the Chinese government is fertile field for all this kind of speculation. I am just watching this develop and hoping for the best.

    max "Reglar flu. By late April it will peak with 1.5 -2M infected. With morality rate 2-3 percent.

    Well not regular but mediaflu."


    No. Regular flue has a Case Fatality Ratio of around 0.1%. nCov-2019 has a rate of around 3 to 10%. (Comparison SARS-Cov 9.6%, but with a much smaller infected population.)


    Worse, the nCov-2019 CFR is much higher in individuals over 60 approaching 50% for the elderly.


    Additionally, nCov-2019 has a daily growth rate in the 20% area.


    Imagine if 5 to 10% of the world's population died of this outbreak. This is nothing like the seasonal flu in the past 50 years. Best wishes for the Chinese on their quarantine experiment in Wuhan. It may need to be repeated in other cities that have large infected populations. We will see in the next 10 days how the quarantine worked. We all wish them well.

    • Official Post

    This kind of publications, which is from a team of Indian academic researchers, has only fueled the speculation and histeria (this one in particular being used as a "evidence that the virus was artificially created as a bioweapon". So, the fact that Google and the WHO are joining efforts to quench the disinfo spread can only be taken as a positive development.


    https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.01.30.927871v1

    Quote from anonymous

    No. Regular flue has a Case Fatality Ratio of around 0.1%. nCov-2019 has a rate of around 3 to 10%. (Comparison SARS-Cov 9.6%, but with a much smaller infected population.)


    A week ago, most estimates put the fatality rate below 2%. I think it is considerably lower than that now, because the number of uncounted, non-fatal cases is much higher than previously reported, whereas deaths are usually accounted for. See:


    https://www.nytimes.com/intera…-coronavirus-contain.html

    Quote from JedRothwell

    A week ago, most estimates put the fatality rate below 2%.


    You are an optimist. Today 20'000 infected, 300 dead confirmed: Simple equation 1.5% mortality. But infection rates grows 20% daily. ---> discount the infected for 7 days incubation and you are way higher than 3% mortality that in fact could rise to 5% under bad conditions. Most confirmed first dead had a health problem - this is the other side of the story what will lower the overall death toll.


    Only thing you can do: Take it serious! Be an optimist but act like a pessimist!

    I think, we do not need to act like pessimists. Not yet. But, we could act like, at least, optimistically spoken, being prepared for the worst case.


    Meaning, go and buy ammo, candles, vitamin pills, water, and food in tincans.


    All of them will also be useful without a pandemia. But if one strikes, it will be necessary.


    Let's hope, this won't happen, but, if that stem starts with mutations...

    ...then we have lot's of time to panic...

    • Official Post

    Viruses are not immutable, they arise through mutation and continue to mutate as they are passed from person to person. Some mutations make little difference, some make it more benign, others make it deadly. SARS and Spanish Flu (1918) became more benign - though it took a few million dead before Spanish Flu lost its potency. In the UK in the 50'5 we had an epidemic of 'Asian Flu' as it was called (1956 from memory). That strain started out dangerous and faded in strength until it becaoe 'ordinary'. At the moment this virus is known to be infectious, obviously, but wether that is by direct touch or wether it is truly 'pneumonic' where infection can be picked up from the air in a crowded train or plane is uncertain. The exponential growth suggests that it is pneumonic, so get your face-masks on, or stop breathing in public spaces.

    Quote from Wyttenbach

    You are an optimist. Today 20'000 infected, 300 dead confirmed: Simple equation 1.5% mortality.


    It is not simple, and this is not an optimistic estimate. It is realistic, taking into account two key factors: 1. The number of infections is probably underestimated, but 2. The numbers of deaths is probably much more accurate.


    The number of infections is drastically underestimated according to many sources. It is very difficult to count everyone who has been infected, because: there are not enough test kits; there is widespread chaos; many people are unable to go to hospitals or (justifiably) afraid to go, people have been waiting for hours in crowded hospitals, so many of those who were not infected initially were infected while waiting; and because some patients had mild cases did not realize they had the disease. In contrast, the number of dead is relatively easy to count. There are many fewer. You can be sure someone is dead, and all of the dead are officially counted. Some of the deaths were ascribed to different causes, but most in recent weeks most were probably recorded correctly. Therefore, the number of illnesses is probably much higher than 20,000, perhaps an order of magnitude higher, but the number of dead is probably close to 300.

    Quote from Alan Smith

    Viruses are not immutable, they arise through mutation and continue to mutate as they are passed from person to person. Some mutations make little difference, some make it more benign, others make it deadly. SARS and Spanish Flu (1918) became more benign - though it took a few million dead before Spanish Flu lost its potency


    Nearly all become more benign, because killing the carrier is bad for the virus. It makes it unable to spread farther, and kills it. In the U.S., some population groups were less susceptible to the Spanish Flu than others. Black people were more immune than other groups. Inuit people were particularly susceptible and died in the largest percentages in North America.


    I do not know whether the Spanish Flu lost potency or went extinct. SARS and MERS apparently went extinct. They developed a vaccine for the latter but it was never needed.


    The Spanish flu viruses were recovered and sequenced. The full DNA sequence was going to be published openly, but authorities thought twice about it and decided to keep it secret. That strikes me as a prudent decision.


    With something as contagious as the Wuhan virus, only a vaccine can stop it. Without a vaccine it is like "trying to stop the wind" as one expert put it. A vaccine may take 6 to 12 months. Steps to slow down the infection rate should be taken in the meanwhile, to buy time.

    • Official Post

    Here's what friend who is both an MD and a physics researcher mailed me about this a few hours ago. I'm not too sure about the link below the message though.


    Some viruses are very mutable depending on their type of repair.

    some have excellent repair of point mutations such as caused by OH.

    (hydroxyl free radical produced by penetrating ionizing radiation);

    while UV damage producing thymine dimers requires repair of swaths

    of nucleic acids and have a high mutation rate (eg. herpes in UV

    irradiation).


    Influenza has shift and drift of lethality due to changes in its

    genome, but coronaviruses are a brand. it is as if an alien

    came to Earth and saw Ramblers, Chevys, Rolls Royce and

    because they all had chrome on the surface, put them in one

    group. So it is with the coronaviruses; very different types.

    this particular beast not only has four segments resembling HIV

    (1 is happenstance, 2 cooincidence, 3 war, after Ian flemming)

    but a segment that is actually used in genetic engineering.


    “An analysis of the gene sequence for the coronavirus

    finds a peculiar sequence called “pShuttle-SN.”

    This sequence is is the remnant of a genetic engineering

    sequence that’s used to insert genes into viruses

    and bacteria.”


    http://lenteconservador.com/20…roving-laboratory-origin/

    Quote from JedRothwell

    A week ago, most estimates put the fatality rate below 2%. I think it is considerably lower than that now, because the number of uncounted, non-fatal cases is much higher than previously reported, whereas deaths are usually accounted for. See:


    https://www.nytimes.com/intera…-coronavirus-contain.html


    All the deaths are not being accounted for. Many patients have been told they had "viral pnemonia" without being officially diagnosed as having this new virus. This way, when they die, they are not added to the official death toll. Also, the news media in certain parts of Asia are reporting that some hospitals are sending bodies immediately after death to the crematoriums without adding them. The Chinese government is trying extremely difficult to downplay the number of infected, the number of deaths, and the seriousness of this situation to limit the political and economic damage.

    • Official Post
    Quote from Director

    Zerohedge is one of the best sources of information about the corona virus.


    https://www.zerohedge.com/geop…hospital-hong-kong-closes

    Well @Director, ZeroHedge is considered a far right crackpot site in general terms so I don’t think of it as anything other than yet another site on the web in which anything that is said needs to be really checked to take it seriously. Nothing personal against you, just to be clear, I am just surprised of this recommendation from your part.

    • Official Post

    thanks for that Alan Smith, the HIV similarities are being greatly downplayed in the mainstream, but is hard to think this is just a coincidence (it would require two coincidental coincidences).

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