UK percentage of population infected.

Anyone (W?) want to justify W's guess of 50% people have prior infection?

I have two ways to approach this:

(1) measurement of N IgG antibodies, these are not generated from the vaccine and can be seen after natural infection. They are easily measured: 18% of population.

Caveat: they to decrease with time and after 12 months maybe 50% or more have low levels

(2) Count cases, correct for infections.

We know from ONS survey that the ratio of infections (even asymptomatic) to cases is now reliably around 1.6. We count cases accurately: 8M at the moment, for a population of 69M.

Caveat: there have been times (1st wave) when testing was limited and cases dramatically underestimated infections.

I got some reassurance from both methods coming to the same answer:

8/69 * 1.6 = 18%

Current N IgG (sampled) 18%

I then added 50% (arbitrarily) to allow for undercounting errors and get 25%. Some would argue that is too much. The official figures go with the N antibody count at 18%. And of course if counting N antibody mediated immunity that is correct.

W seems to have another factor of 2 in there somehow.

These boring numbers matter - because they do alter the best fit interpretation of what is going on - e.g. how much protection are the vaccines giving against transmission - that of course informs public policy.

And everyone should remember, the figures quoted are averages.

Everything about coronavirus varies with age. Including vaccine efficacy since vaccines are using the bodies natural defences - which wane with age. So young people, vaccinated, will have much better protection against transmission than age 60+.

Really, the best correction for thinking people against antivaxxer propaganda is to look very closely at the numbers. To make antivax memes stick you need to skew them all. That was easier in the earlier days of the pandemic than it is now. However in the real world antivaxxer propaganda is a smart video in a social media feed and has no relationship to numeric reality at all.

So are those official figures wrong?

I was surprised at US pronouncements about vaccine efficacy against infection. They were for a long time not taking into account delta.

I think generally the official stuff tends to be out of date simply because people want reliable data, which takes time, rather than best estimate guesses. And the UK is always ahead of the US (we get variants first, anyway).

The problem is that a best estimate guess about delta (when you know your problem will be delta - which we knew a long time ago) is probably more accurate than peer reviewed data about original or alpha COVID.

Having said that, best estimate given uncertainty needs to be balanced - and what I notice throughout the pandemic is that antivax or antivax-lite arguments give unbalanced best estimates of anything not tied down.

THH

At least the drug companies are considering anti-viral drugs in combination with vaccination...which I have said all along is the correct approach. Maybe at last they will investigate the S-enantiomer of hydroxy-chloroquine in conjunction with Ivermectin???? Anti-Bat was always effective.

Quote from THHuxleynew

Also worth noting that the N protein response to COVID (N IgG) - from so-called natural infection - reduces rapidly over 6 months too.

Why do you mention something that does not even happens with gene therapy ??

When will you understand that antibody levels are only short time relevant? Are the ultimate reaction on an infection and never are produced for long time prevention?

The idea behind Oxford/Pfizer/J&J crap is childish and contrary to all knowledge of virology/immunology. Only important is a broad immune memory that does not exist after gene therapy.

I couldn't agree with you more. Well said Wyttenbach!

Quote from THHuxleynew

They are easily measured: 18% of population.

You still don't get it. This ONS data is highly faked as it is thew wrong group they look at. Mostly healthy younger people are blood donors.

As said. The last exact UK figures we have are from week 11 2021 with between 35..40% natural infection. Later figures you neither can measure nor properly estimate as the Roche tests are not certified for vaccinated people and we do not know when they started to use the Roche test as it is also not certified for delta!

So we can only extrapolate with data from places with known delta infection rates like India with 70..80% after the big delta wave! Also Switzerland Geneva region (got early delta because of UNO) after delta the antibody level was close to 70% with very low vaccination rate.

On the other side vaccine terror states like Kerala still were between 45 & 50% after the large delta wave. This is why I say UK has at least 50% and we must count in for the possibility of 60 or even 70%.

Your 18% are plain nonsense.

The thhuxleynew's role in this very thread turns out to be quite useful for antivaxxers - it forces his opponents to bring way more serious arguments, than they would do it without him.

Reports of Serious Injuries After COVID Vaccines Near 112,000, as Pfizer Asks FDA to Green Light Shots for Kids 5 to 11

VAERS data released Friday by the CDC included a total of 778,685 reports of adverse events from all age groups following COVID vaccines, including 16,310…

childrenshealthdefense.org

This is a good overview over the US vaccination status with all data like total dose/vaccine and also how many children died after vaccines or got heart problems (>500) all from Pfizer....

One mafia member here does not like this site... But this page on top is information="actual data" only no opinion...

May be some selected death cases (at second half of page..) is what the mafia believes is opinion.

Quote from Zephir_AWT

The thhuxleynew's role in this very thread turns out to be quite useful for antivaxxers

When will you learn that we oppose a cancer gene therapy?? That does not even close work like a vaccine?

And may be why should we be anti vaxxers despite having all standard vaccines??? This is baby logic. You should not join the mafia choir.

Prominent Scientists Questions the Long-Term Safety of Merck’s Molnupiravir –Potential for Birth Defects or Cancer?

Prominent Scientists Questions the Long-Term Safety of Merck’s Molnupiravir –Potential for Birth Defects or Cancer?

Merck’s molnupiravir has certainly received a lot of good press over the past days since the New Jersey-based pharmaceutical company announced its

trialsitenews.com

Prominent Scientists Questions the Long-Term Safety of Merck’s Molnupiravir –Potential for Birth Defects or Cancer?

Merck’s molnupiravir has certainly received a lot of good press over the past days since the New Jersey-based pharmaceutical company announced its clinical trial demonstrates positive results. They will be expeditiously working to file for an emergency use authorization (EUA) and tap into and try to control what could be as rich as a $10 billion dollar market for early-onset mild COVID-19 home treatment. But if one looks carefully enough, they can find some concerned scientists. For example, a piece at Barron’s authored by Josh Nathan-Kazis expresses concern of a small but concerned group that the drug could cause cancer or birth defects.

TrialSite reported on a Science piece that included quotes from Raymond Schinazi, an Emory University chemist and former founder of Pharmasset, a company developing a similar drug to that of Molnupiravir, which was abandoned in 2003 after the drug’s mutagenic properties came to light.

For our perspective on how Merck marched down the path toward financial glory with this questionable drug can be read here.

Does Molnupiravir Pose Risks?

While the developers Ridgeback Biotherapeutics and Merck have downplayed any safety issues and prominent industry, writers such as Derek Lowe share upbeat hopes for the new product taking at face value the data delivered to date. TrialSite notes that the inclusion and exclusion criteria associated with their clinical trial precludes pregnant or breastfeeding women or male and female actively trying to conceive a child. In the case of males, they are requested to “abstain from heterosexual intercourse” in the study.

A prodrug of nucleoside analogue -D-N4 hydroxycytidine (NHC), Molnupiravir has the potential, some scientists share concerns, to possibly be fused into mammalian DNA. In May Dr. Schinazi and some scientist colleagues published in the Journal of Infectious Diseases that NHC can lead to mutations in animal cell cultures associated with preclinical early-stage lab studies designed to find mutations.

Merck is on the record that it has undertaken all of this due diligence research and that there is nothing to worry about. However, while Schinazi and some colleagues from the University of North Carolina may have declared that the risk associated with Molnupiravir “may not be zero,” one must consider the clinical trial inclusion and exclusion criteria—clearly, there is concern about offspring.

But one of Dr. Schinazi’s colleagues, Dr. Shuntai Zhou out of UNC’s Swanstrom Lab shared recently “there is a concern that this will cause long-term mutation effects, even cancer.” Declaring that “Biochemistry won’t lie,” Dr. Zhou appears highly confident that “This drug will be incorporated into the DNA.”

Prospect for Access Highly Controlled

Regardless, the drug will be highly controlled thus limiting Merck to exploit the full COVID-19 monetization potential. For example restrictions on pregnant women and breastfeeding women or those that are actively conceiving a child will be precluded from any label as those who have moderate COVID-19 as recent news in India, if proven correct, indicates the clinical trial there testing the drug isn’t faring as well for moderate patients.

The Medical-Financial-Government Complex

But a confluence of regulatory and government research, academia, and industry along with financiers align to drive the narrative moving forward. TrialSite suggests that some organized cabal is behind the complete trashing of ivermectin-a possible competitor to Molnupiravir. “Nothing will stop this group from aggressively monetizing this crisis” reports Daniel O’Connor, founder of TrialSite. On the other hand, O’Connor shared that “if the drug can help treat people at home safely and make the difference Merck will earn a fortune.” Concerns of price gouging already surface online.

Call to Action: TrialSite will continue to monitor the reports for the community.

Merck’s Covid Pill Could Pose Serious Risks, Scientists Warn

Researchers say the drug could integrate itself into patients' DNA, theoretically leading to cancer. Merck says its tests show that isn't an issue.

www.barrons.com

Quote from Alan Smith

Fm1

I admire your stamina.

Need a lab assistant? At this point of my life I'll work for free. And enjoy it!!!!

COVID-19 Natural Immunity on Par with Vaccine Immunity According to Recent Meta-Analysis

COVID-19 Natural Immunity on Par with Vaccine Immunity According to Recent Meta-Analysis

Researchers from the University of California, Los Angeles, (USC) University of Southern California (USC), and the Cleveland Clinic conducted a

trialsitenews.com

COVID-19 Natural Immunity on Par with Vaccine Immunity According to Recent Meta-Analysis

Researchers from the University of California, Los Angeles, (USC) University of Southern California (USC), and the Cleveland Clinic conducted a meta-analysis of studies probing the risk associated with SARS-CoV-2 reinfection among those previously infected with SARS-CoV-2. Searching scientific publications on PubMed and the preprint server medRxiv from the pandemic start until August 18, 2021, the investigators pinpointed studies on a range of established criteria helping to identify for a comprehensive overview of findings. Using broad enough terms to include all relevant studies, the researchers excluded studies that failed to describe cohorts with estimates involving the risk of COVID-19 infection among previously infected persons. With a number of acknowledged limitations, the authors declared that based on the findings, natural immunity associated with SARS-CoV-2 infection is relevant and significant. They declared, “The protective effect of prior SARS-CoV-2 infection on re-infection is high and similar to the protective effect on vaccination.” Obviously more evidence—meaning additional studies—is necessary to better understand, systematically, the duration of protection and the impact of various variant strains of COVID-19.

While federal authorities such as U.S. Health and Human Services in America have all but ignored natural immunity, mounting data indicate that previous SARS-CoV-2 infection either leads to comparable or even superior immunity to the type afforded by the mRNA COVID-19 vaccination.

In this study led by UCLA’s Noah Kojima, MD, prominent infectious disease researcher Dr. Jeffrey Klausner from USC, and Cleveland Clinic’s Nabin Shrestha, MD, the trio sought to identify the most relevant studies coupled with applicable control groups. In doing so, they established important criteria for relevant studies, including the following:

1 Baseline polymerase chain reaction (PCR) testing

2 A uninfected comparison group

3 Longitudinal follow-up

4 Cohort of human participants (e.g. not a case report or case series)

5 Outcome determined by PCR

Following PRISMA guidelines, the esteemed physician-researchers identified 1,392 reports, including ultimately only 10 that met their stringent eligibility criteria for systematic review.

Findings

The authors write that there was a weighted risk reduction against reinfection of 90.4%, including a standard deviation of 7.7% (p-value: <0.01). The authors discovered that natural immunity appears to last at least ten (10) months. However, the studies they did base their findings on could include selection, information, and analysis bias. But they confidently conclude, “The Protective effect of prior SARS-CoV-2 infection on re-infection is high and similar to the protective effect of vaccination.”

Lead Research/Investigator

Noah Kojima, MD

Jeffrey Klausner, USC

Nabin Shrestha, MD, the Cleveland Clinic

Call to Action: Note this study has yet to be peer-reviewed so caution is due when citing.

Question. Is Covid infection causing latent bacteria activation is our food supply? We know it happens in humans. Start testing for antibodies in our meat supply!

Rare Cattle Disease Found First Time in Decades in Montana Herd

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-10-08/rare-cattle-disease-found-first-time-in-decades-in-montana-herd

Bovine tuberculosis, once the deadliest disease for cattle in the U.S., was found for the first time in decades in Montana’s beef herd.

A cow was confirmed to be infected with the disease during routine inspection at a packing plant, the Montana Department of Livestock said Friday in a statement

Yes but did they test for Covid antibodies?

Here is a news article featuring my niece and her son. It is typical of our family to show up with digital meter and data rather than argue based on speculation. When in doubt, measure it!

CO2 is measured not because CO2 itself is dangerous at these levels. High CO2 levels indicate that ventilation is inadequate.

The Hot New Back-to-School Accessory? An Air Quality Monitor

Parents are sneaking carbon dioxide monitors into their children’s schools to determine whether the buildings are safe.

The Hot New Back-to-School Accessory? An Air Quality Monitor

Parents are sneaking carbon dioxide monitors into their children’s schools to determine whether the buildings are safe.

www.nytimes.com

When Lizzie Rothwell, an architect in Philadelphia, sent her son to third grade this fall, she stocked his blue L.L. Bean backpack with pencils, wide-ruled paper — and a portable carbon dioxide monitor.

The device gave her a quick way to assess how much fresh air was flowing through the school. Low levels of CO2 would indicate that it was well-ventilated, reducing her son’s odds of catching the coronavirus.

But she quickly discovered that during lunch, CO2 levels in the cafeteria rose to nearly double those recommended by Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. She shared what she’d learned with the principal and asked if students could eat outside instead.

“He expressed surprise that I had any data at all,” she said. . . .

Quote from Alan Smith

TB has been endemic in British cattle for well over a centurt, and milk was (if you paid more for it) sold as 'TT' - tubeculin tested'. This contributed to a relatively high incidence of gastro-intestinal TB in the UK well into the 1950's when efforts were first made to eliminate tubercular cows from the dairy herd and slaughter them for making corned beef. Now they are slaughtered on detection and incinerated. The persistence of bovine TB in the UK is blamed on the Mustelid population- largely badgers in this case which are culled, not something that pleases everybody, especially of course the badgers..Apparently it has nothing to do with cattle markets and the endless transport of cattle between different farms.

Fm1 - yes would really welcome a technician. Apply here!

As soon as you licence your recycling tech here in Florida, I'll be first in line! If you need an internet sluth, ask and I'll do my best.

Despite Heavy Vaccination Delta Variant COVID-19 Infections & Deaths Surges in Singapore

Despite Heavy Vaccination Delta Variant COVID-19 Infections & Deaths Surges in Singapore

Mass COVID-19 vaccination has essentially failed in Singapore—at least up to this point. With about 83% of its population fully inoculated and a version

trialsitenews.com

Mass COVID-19 vaccination has essentially failed in Singapore—at least up to this point. With about 83% of its population fully inoculated and a version of zero-tolerance COVID-19 policy in place for over a year—that is, tight border controls, frequent testing, proactive contact tracing, this wealthy city-state was one of the leaders in getting the entire population vaccinated. What happened? By September 2021, COVID-19 cases started doubling by the day, and the country reinstated restrictions on gathering and other events. While mass vaccination appears to have reduced severe cases involving hospitalization and death, the data indicate something different–that deaths are at an all-time high in this country despite overwhelming vaccination.

In a recent New York Times piece reporter, Sui-Lee Wee does her best to scan the environment for a rational explaining a rational cause for what the recent surge. However, at some point, the obvious has to be called out. Mass vaccination here is failing to achieve the goals that were declared at the time. Mass vaccination would control viral transmission and, more importantly, protect the majority of the population from more severe COVID-19, including hospitalization and death.

In covering the recent SARS-CoV-2 surge in Singapore, Ms. Siu-Lee Wee interviewed Singapore’s finance minister and chair of the city-state’s COVID-19 task force, Lawrence Wong, who declared “the shots cannot protect against infection, especially when up against the Delta variant.”

What’s Going On?

TrialSite reviewed the data to share the current situation. While Singapore is one of the most COVID-19 inoculated populations on the planet, this fact has done little to protect the population against the latest surge. To put things in perspective, Singapore has avoided any real problems with the disease for most of the pandemics. They instituted a form of zero-tolerance policy similar to China involving tight border controls, frequent testing, contact tracing, and rigorous adherence to quarantines.

According to the New York Times article, Singapore was one of the first nations to embrace mass vaccination, with now about 83% of the population fully vaccinated. Instead of opening back up like many other parts of the world, they are now shutting society back down, at least for now, until this surge blows over.

The data

Singapore experienced an initial surge during the onset of the pandemic back in April. On April 26, 2020, the country reported 1,426 new cases, which was a record at the time. Few deaths were recorded early on—only 153 deaths have been recorded in total for this nation of 5.7 million people. Disturbingly, TrialSite reveals that a majority of these deaths have occurred recently when most of the population is purportedly protected.

For much of the pandemic, while places like America, Russia, and Brazil struggled with millions of cases, Singapore tightly controlled the situation with less than 30 new cases a day from September 2020 to July 2021. However, with the introduction of the Delta variant came an uptick of cases.

By July, the number of infections started to rise—yet by this point, 75% of the population had already received at least one dose of vaccine. By July 24th, the total 7-day average new case count totaled 153 COVID cases.

As August 2021 arrived, however, the cases declined, and authorities seemed relieved that the vaccines were, in fact, working. By August 21the 7-day average of new COVID-19 cases declined to 46, a seemingly manageable number—far closer to what the norm should have been by this point.

However, by August 28, the 7-day average for new cases crossed back over 100—what follows is what has happened since then.

As can be seen in the chart below, new COVID-19 cases have absolutely skyrocketed. By the beginning of September, new cases were already on the rise at 180 for the day. Since then, the exponential rise despite near-universal vaccination and corresponding measures and controls taken by the government must be understood for what this represents. An abject failure of the vaccines to stop pervasive viral spread.

In the New York Times article, the author assured that at least death and hospitalizations were stopped thanks to the vaccine. Singapore officials shared, “The vaccines have worked to keep most of the population out of the hospital with 98.4 percent cases presenting mild or no symptoms.” The reporter went on to educate that most of the deaths have been among the elderly or those with comorbidities and account for a very small percentage of cases.

However, a review of the actual data raises concern. While the nation has only experienced 153 deaths, a great majority have occurred most recently since most of the population has been vaccinated. There was a cluster of reported deaths at the onset of the pandemic when there were no vaccines or known treatments. A great majority of deaths now reported in Singapore have occurred most recently, during a time when vaccination was supposed to prevent just such an occurrence.

What follows is a distribution of deaths in Singapore since the beginning of August 2021. We note before that date, only a handful of deaths associated with COVID-19 were reported—mostly during April and May 2020, the onset of the pandemic for Singapore. TrialSite reports that nearly 70% of all deaths reported in the nation have been recorded since August—a time when well over 75% of the country’s population was vaccinated, as reported by Reuters.

COVID-19 Vaccination in Singapore

Singapore was very serious about vaccination from the onset of the pandemic. By December 2020, the Singapore government had invested over one billion Singapore dollars ($737m USD) to sign advanced purchase agreements, making early-down payments on vaccines from Pfizer-BioNTech, Moderna, and CoronaVac, according to government data.

by February 2021, the Singapore government become the first nation in Asia to authorize the use of Moderna’s COVID-19 vaccine (mRNA-1273) jointly developed by the National institutes of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (NIAID, the Biomedical Advanced Research and Development Authority (BARDA), and Moderna as reported by Reuters.

By July, the government’s proclivity to favor the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine (BNT162b2) was clear based on reports that those who received the Sinovac vaccine, for example, wouldn’t be counted as fully vaccinated.

Reuters reported that on July 7, 2021, those people in the nation who received the Sinovac vaccine from China would be “Excluded from Singapore’s count of total vaccinations against COVID-19.” According to the Reuters report, health authorities from the city-state declared that the Chinese vaccine had inadequate efficacy.

The table below indicates the total breakdown of vaccines in use:

The data indicate Pfizer-BioNTech’s BNT162b2 is by far the most pervasively used vaccine.

Booster Program

Like other heavily vaccinated populations, health authorities learned that the vaccine effectiveness of even the most highly touted mRNA vaccines waned after six months, if not earlier. Hence, the Straits Times reported The Straits Times, a Singapore booster program commenced by September 14, 2021, targeting shots for seniors over age 60. Since October 4, booster shots are available for a population above 50 years of age.

Conclusion

While Singapore is one of the most vaccinated nations in the nation—with most jabs associated with what’s considered the high efficacy mRNA BNT162b2, the cases of Delta have exploded in the past month. This despite the highly controlled and conservative approach taken by this Southeast Asian government, including adherence to tight border control and frequent testing and contact tracing.

The data behind this surge indicates that not only are the COVID-19 vaccines falling short in stopping viral transmission but also in alleviating the death rate, which has risen since the nation’s population became overwhelmingly fully inoculated. The trend here follows many other heavily vaccinated nations such as Israel, Iceland, and others that, despite high vaccination rates, have experienced serious surges in cases. While data in other nations indicates the vaccines prevent more serious symptomatic infection, hospitalization and death, the vaccines are not stopping viral transmission.

Quote from Fm1

As can be seen in the chart below, new COVID-19 cases have absolutely skyrocketed. By the beginning of September, new cases were already on the rise at 180 for the day. Since then, the exponential rise despite near-universal vaccination and corresponding measures and controls taken by the government must be understood for what this represents. An abject failure of the vaccines to stop pervasive viral spread.

In the New York Times article, the author assured that at least death and hospitalizations were stopped thanks to the vaccine. Singapore officials shared, “The vaccines have worked to keep most of the population out of the hospital with 98.4 percent cases presenting mild or no symptoms.” The reporter went on to educate that most of the deaths have been among the elderly or those with comorbidities and account for a very small percentage of cases.

However, a review of the actual data raises concern. While the nation has only experienced 153 deaths, a great majority have occurred most recently since most of the population has been vaccinated. There was a cluster of reported deaths at the onset of the pandemic when there were no vaccines or known treatments. A great majority of deaths now reported in Singapore have occurred most recently, during a time when vaccination was supposed to prevent just such an occurrence.

TSN again is poisonous, in the sense that the Singapore picture here is so highly spun you can't see the facts.

Singapore has a population of 5.6M. 153 deaths is very very low. If, now, it has an IFR of 0.05% (20X better than the UK with high unvaccinated death toll) - that would be 2800 deaths from the whole population infected. We just don't know how many people have been infected from this account: but from some googling they have 124K cases. If we assume infections/cases = 1.0 (I tend to use 1.5, but I'm being conservative here) they have deaths / infections = 153/ 124K = 0.1%. That is pretty good when you note that 50% of tehir cases are from a time when everyone was unvaccinated - eyeballing it is about 0.05% IFR now or 20X fewer deaths than they had originally.

Singapore has a demographic advantage over the UK, median age 42, but it is not a very large advantage (it has low birth rate)

TSN seems incapable of looking at figures in a balanced way. Also, like W, unable to distinguish between infection rate and efficacy of vaccine in preventing deaths and serious disease.

Of course, the data that will tell us that is just absent from the TSN account, which does no attempt to compare infections and deaths. I've done some very crude comparison above.

On the other point - the vaccines definitely would have been a silver bullet against original covid, and maybe also alpha. No way they can be that for delta, but as you see from the uk they do help reduce transmission.

THH

Quote from Wyttenbach

The idea behind Oxford/Pfizer/J&J crap is childish and contrary to all knowledge of virology/immunology.

Why is it that I think only children or fanatics would believe that statement?