Facts about CoV-19::
- Vaccines give you absolute no protection from an infection. The first 2 months post jab this might look that way because the 1.2 % that got CoV-19 1..7 days post jab count as regular infections....
- Vaccinated are infected by CoV-19 at a much higher rate than unvaxxinated:: See: https://assets.publishing.serv…llance-report-week-44.pdf
Both untrue.
1 week mis-classification of an 8 week period could at most result in a 12% reduction in incidence - assuming the study did not use the correct 7 week reporting windows - which all reputable studies would.
We have many different studies showing varying infection-protection from vaccines. Over the whole population, real-world, it looks like 90% (at least initially) going down after 6 months to something more like 50%.
There is a good deal of uncertainty in all of these studies - and much more uncertainty in the cherry-picked figures above - not a study - and not useful because of problematic denominator and differential reporting rates.
It will be interesting to put all the available info together - but unless you are an antivaxxer and refuse to accept any of the studies then there is initially quite a high protective against infection effect which goes down.
For those unfamiliar with antivax (or even pro-vax) cherry-picking:
- TICS (this is COVID - stupid!) meaningful data needs to be accurately age-stratified because of extreme age-dependence of everything
- Simpson;'s paradox - need to consider - by age group - iintial fraction as well as fraction getting infection/dying/ etc
- Temporal effects. in most places infection rate varies wildly over time, vaccination rate also varies wildly over time. these things conflate and can make results weird.
- vulnerable-get-vaccinated effect tends to make everything worse for vaccinated
- vaccinated are cautious effect makes things seem better for vaccine
- vaccinated are less cautious effect - makes things seem worse for vaccine. we don't know which of these two effects dominates.
- unvaccinated-don't-report-infections effect. makes things seem worse for vaccinated. Again we do not know magnitude.