Covid-19 News

    Quote from THHuxleynew

    Because of the high vaccination in the higher age groups, small errors (2%) in total population (it is overestimated by MIMS because this counts all GP registrations and people often leave and never re-register) result in large errors in estimated unvaccinated population, hence changing the statistics.

    Can you stop this nonsense, that has been produced for idiots? This table is about cases among vaccinated/unvaccinated. The group age 40..80 is > 40% of the UK population. If 2% of 40% are missing how much is this?? May be look it up in your undergrad textbook!

    I tend to be pretty tolerant of different views. You can see in this thread that my tolerance has its limits. People lying in ways that are likely to increase vaccine hesitancy and kill people has zero tolerance from me. People misinformed, or who believe in false balance (where every issue on which two opposite people can be found to argue is viewed as unsettled) are maybe not to blame but a danger to themselves and others. Everyone who goes against national health advice, and propagates those views, has a very great responsibility to be sure they really know better than all those others. When doing that, ignorance is no excuse.

    Those people at Fivethirtyeight are good at social science surveys. They know what questions to ask. The chart I copied above sheds light on the mindset of the antivaxxers. I suppose if I thought there is little chance I would get sick (left chart) and I thought the vaccine was more dangerous than the disease (right chart), I would not get vaccinated.

    Quote from Zeus46

    “Preliminary data from several states over the last few months suggest that 99.5% of deaths from COVID-19 in the United States were in unvaccinated people…

    Great. Hand made data as in some of THH UK references like according patient....


    In UK about 75% of all deaths are among vaccinated. (weeks 33..36). See linked UK reports tab.4 vaccine surveillance report 37

    In response to this: "“Preliminary data from several states over the last few months suggest that 99.5% of deaths from COVID-19 in the United States were in unvaccinated people…"

    Quote from Wyttenbach

    Great. Hand made data as in some of THH UK references like according patient....


    In UK about 75% of all deaths are among vaccinated. (weeks 33..36).

    This is because most people in the UK are vaccinated. Apparently you do not understand the base rate fallacy. If 100% of the population were vaccinated, 100% of the sick and dead would be vaccinated breakthrough cases. Either you do not understand this and you are a fool, or you do understand it and you are a liar.


    See also:


    Israeli data: How can efficacy vs. severe disease be strong when 60% of hospitalized are vaccinated?
    A surge involving the rapidly-transmitting Delta variant in heavily vaccinated countries has led to much hand-wringing that the vaccines are not effective…
    www.covid-datascience.com

    I am unable to work out wether Wyttenbach is:


    a) sprinkling DMT in his crack pipe

    b) trolling

    c) bored and seeking attention

    d) an imbecile (or similarly impaired)

    e) purposefully misrepresenting data in order to cull the stupider members of our species


    I guess not all of these are mutually exclusive, but ultimately it a question for his nurses and/or psychiatrist.


    The claim that 75% of people dying of covid are vaccinated is true, but only if we:


    a) include people over 80, who in many cases are known to have a less than adequate response to vaccines.

    b) completely ignore the fact that 90% of people aged over 60 are vaccinated.


    A sober, genuine, sensible, non-psychopath, would prefer to take account of the large difference in vaxxed/unvaxxed population sizes (and not ignore the outcomes of the over 80’s), fortunately this calculation is done for us two pages on from the one Wyttardbach points us towards.


    One wonders why he choses to ignore this graph? Unfortunately a poll can only be added to the first post on a thread, but in order of likelihood i’m going with d-e-a-b&c.



    Eyeballing it, i’d say a better claim would be 75% of all deaths are among unvaccinated, after adjusting for class size.

    Currently more than 9 out of 10 hospitalized COVID-19 patients in german clinics are unvaccinated. Not only seniors and people with preconditions. Also younger <50….

    Hospitals need to start again to postpone and shift regular and planned surgeries, cancer treatment, etc due to filled ICU’s….

    Quote from JedRothwell

    This is because most people in the UK are vaccinated.

    Why do you know this ?? about 90% of age > 55 are vaccinated

    Quote from Zeus46

    I am unable to work out wether Wyttenbach is:

    This is why children should not post.


    I explicitly did reference table 3. What you reference is an over all time rate graph. Same, fake news as in the US case...


    U guess you should stop to take crack.


    Fact is:: Last month 75% of all UK CoV-19 death have been among vaccinated. There is a different time frame in Table 3 that looks back 60 days! What should not make a big difference.


    You can complain with public health England that they did not censor table 3....

    Quote from zorud

    Currently more than 9 out of 10 hospitalized COVID-19 patients in german clinics are unvaccinated. Not only seniors and people with preconditions. Also younger <50….

    Germany has an overall lower vaccination rate than UK. But Germany did also use Moderna that seems to be at least 5x better in preventing severe cases than Oxford/Pfizer - used in UK.



    (weeks 33..37) In UK age >40 group 6000 did go to ICU 1900 have been unvaccinated. So 2/3 are among vaccinated.


    But in the critical age class 70+ about 3000 did go to ICU thereof about only 420 were unvaccinated. This explains the high death rate among vaccinated. So we now know that in many cases vaccines just delay death.


    One should not mix up this with vaccine protection that is still about a factor of 3 for age > 75.


    In Switzerland cases, after holiday did already go back 1/3. But younger stay longer in ICU. Also we do have mostly killing doctors not giving Ivermectin. In fact Ivermectin is a revenue killer...

    Quote from Wyttenbach

    I explicitly did reference table 3. What you reference is an over all time rate graph. Same, fake news as in the US case...


    Yes, you referenced table 3, in order to make a dumb (or purposefully misleading) statement.


    I referenced figure 2 to correct this.


    You claim figure 2 is an “over all time rate graph”, which is yet another dumb statement, as demonstrated by anyone who can manage to read the title of figure 2: It covers weeks 33 to 36. The same as your table.


    Laughable. Or perhaps more pathetic, really.


    So definitely (d) then… Although I guess impairment is mildly preferable to sociopathy.




    And the day I sprinkle crack into my DMT pipe will be a very sorry occasion.

    4th time. W is just not reading my post, on the linked radio 4 more-or-less (a great program explaining numbers and stats - totally without agenda) investigation which showed the surprising reason why the PHE figures for unvaccinated infection rate are too low by a factor of 2.


    I'm just highlighting this because it is normal not to ignore an argument you are trying to contradict. If you can't stream the radio 4 program I also explained it in my post - errors in estimating numer of unvaccinated which depends on total population estimates.

    I don't understand this.


    Whether you measure by rate per person, or overall numbers, this is a very large difference. I'd expect the vaccine to reduce deaths but not by more than a factor of 10-20. And more people in US are vaccinated than not?


    Maybe the unvaccinated are idiots going to covid spreader events?

    Quote from THHuxleynew

    I don't understand this.


    Whether you measure by rate per person, or overall numbers, this is a very large difference. I'd expect the vaccine to reduce deaths but not by more than a factor of 10-20. And more people in US are vaccinated than not?


    Maybe the unvaccinated are idiots going to covid spreader events?


    America, one country, two nations.


    Two R numbers?

    Wuhan scientists planned to release coronaviruses into cave bats 18 months before outbreak Wuhan scientists were planning to release enhanced airborne coronaviruses into Chinese bat populations to inoculate them against diseases that could jump to humans, leaked grant proposals dating from 2018 show. (PDF)


    New documents show that just 18 months before the first Covid-19 cases appeared, researchers had submitted plans to release skin-penetrating nanoparticles containing “novel chimeric spike proteins” of bat coronaviruses into cave bats in Yunnan, China. They also planned to create chimeric viruses, genetically enhanced to infect humans more easily, and requested $14million from the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (Darpa)to fund the work. (open access archive)


    Lab leak accident and intentional release of virus into the wild are two quite different things. I cannot even believe that someone sane could organize such an irresponsible experiments like this one. Just the fact, that someone can seriously plan things like this is striking: such a reality detached people would be then capable of another wild things. It also shows, that they had such an inoculating virus already prepared and developed for human purpose. See also:

    Massive outbreak struck South and Central America and the Caribbean causing more than half a million suspected cases and more than 3,700 congenital birth defects. In 2016, Puerto Rico, the U.S. Virgin Islands and American Samoa saw more than 36,000 cases of locally transmitted Zika virus.

    Title is misleading. It should say, "British zoologist Peter Daszak of EcoHealth Alliance, the US-based organisation planned to release coronaviruses into cave bats 18 months before outbreak". Truth being said, without active cooperation with China such a plan would be unfeasible:


    Three caves in Yunnan Province are specified as of particular importance:


    “Our strategy begins by a complete inventory of bats and their SARSr-CoVs at our intervention test site cave complex in Yunnan, China that harbours bats with high-risk SARSr-CoVs. We will collect data from three caves in that system (one is our intervention test site and two control sites) on: monthly bat abundance and diversity, viral prevalence and diversity, individual bat viral load and host physiological markers; and genomic characterization of low- and high-risk SARSr-CoV strains among bat species, sexes, and age classes; satellite telemetry and mark-recapture data on bat home range and inter-cave movement; and monitoring of daily, weekly and seasonal changes in bat populations.” (D1, p.5)

    “However, our test cave site in Yunnan Province, harbours a quasispecies (QS) population assemblage that contains all the genetic components of epidemic SARS-CoV34, We have isolated three strains there (WIV1, WIV16 and SHCO14) that unlike other SARSr-CoVs, do not contain two deletions in the receptor-binding domain (RBD) of the spike, have far higher sequence identity to SARS-CoV (Fig. 1), use human ACE2 receptor for cell entry, as SARS-CoV does (Fig. 2), and replicate efficiently in various animal and human cells.” (D1, p.7-8)


    The famous reports about 15.000 bat samples collected in Wuhan indicate, that at least first part of this grant proposal has been actually approved and subsidized by DARPA. The Chinese in Wuhan clearly DID research financed by USA military agency invented and proposed by British geneticist Peter Dashak. With his level of involvement and number of lies which he already spread about Wuhan research I suspect, he became a member of the World Health Organization team sent to China not to investigate the origin of COVID-19, but to cover it.

    Quote from Wyttenbach

    I did clearly indicate weeks 33..36

    But did you really? It would appear that what you actually wrote was…

    Quote from Wyttenbach

    What you reference is an over all time rate graph.

    Which, as shown in the screen capture above, was incorrect. Do you not remember saying this? It was only 4 hours ago. It seems odd to deny something that is so obviously true. Are you feeling alright?


    Quote from Wyttenbach

    And you erroneously did look at a rate graph and did make wrong conclusions.

    Oh really? Care to explain why exactly? With reference to my argument, and without contradicting yourself, misreading titles, or plain just making up some illogical nonsense, if you don’t mind.

    It is an example of how things can be proposed with good motivation that are highly risky - and that retrospectively look plain silly. As a research project I cannot see this getting safety approval.


    But people do these things, overlooking possible risks, in many areas. They would say here that the viruses to be released were safe and would prevent other bat nasties capable of infecting humans from developing. The possible problem is crossover between these safe viruses and other nastier stuff.


    It is maybe not quite as daft as it seems. These bat nasties exist, in those caves. People were going in there and getting infected. So although there are dangers in the proposal you could argue that there are dangers in those caves anyway, and overall this plan reduces the danger.


    It does provide a sane mechanism for possible artificial generation of that Furin cleavage site.


    Having said that, I'd like some confirmation of all this other than Trump administration appointees - some of them were so enamoured of conspiracy theories that they would swear the moon was put in the sky by aliens to spy on us.


    We need that research proposal (which it is here claimed exists) discussed by sane scientists to discover all the ins and outs of this.


    In this - if it does turn out to have elements of truth - we see no grand Chinese conspiracy, merely US scientists planning to do well-meaning but risky things funded from a US organisation. the whole GoF research filed was always contentious and because of COVID looks both more important (we do need to understand this stuff) and more risky (could COVID have been human generated? the risks are real) than it was anyway. And it was contentious because everyone realised both the importance and the risk.


    THH

    US ‘rejected funding for bat coronavirus project at Wuhan lab’
    Plans to genetically engineer coronaviruses and then conduct experiments in live bats at the Wuhan Institute of Virology were rejected by US funding agencies on
    www.thetimes.co.uk


    Plans to genetically engineer coronaviruses and then conduct experiments in live bats at the Wuhan Institute of Virology were rejected by US funding agencies on the grounds that it could have put local communities at risk, according to documents leaked yesterday.

    The 2018 application by Ecohealth Alliance, a US non-governmental organisation, involved proposals to work alongside Wuhan researchers to tweak coronaviruses to make them potentially better able to infect humans, the documents claimed.

    In describing experiments involving the construction of “chimeric coronaviruses”, as well as the regular sampling of viruses from bat caves, the leaked documents will increase scrutiny on the Wuhan Institute of Virology and the idea that the pandemic may have originated in a laboratory.

    The proposals were published by Drastic, an international...


    Sounds about right.

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