Covid-19 News

Quote from Wyttenbach

Unluckily the virus did find his path to the third world and also in China they will have a huge percentage of undetected infections.

Not according to the W.H.O. and the Chinese. I have pointed out the reasons why they do not have many undetected infections. I listed the technical reasons and pointed to documents with detailed information. If you have some reason to doubt the W.H.O., or you have read these documents and found errors, you should point them out. If you do not have reasons, you should stop saying this. This is a science-based discussion group. Show your work. Show evidence. Your opinion, unsupported by evidence, does not count. Who do you think you are, anyway -- Donald Trump?

Quote from Deleo

The measures China is taking do appear to work. I guess my point is that we are going to get into a social science experiment soon. How long can people live that way if a vaccine is at best a year away? They are getting through it now, but what about 2-3 months from now?

If hundreds of people are dying every day, and the hospitals are overflowing, people will do as they are told. I am confident of that. There will be no complaints. Everyone will know that a vaccine is coming to save the day. Perhaps even the anti-vaccers will shut up. We can hope!

Quote from Deleo

That’s the problem with this virus. It’s very contagious.

Actually, the latest data from the W.H.O. indicates it may not be as contagious as the seasonal flu. It was very contagious in China in January because people were crammed together in hospital waiting rooms.

Quote from Deleo

I also just don’t know if people in the U.S. and other western countries are going to be comfortable living in any way like that for an extended period of time. Some people may say screw it, and just live out in the world with the risk of getting it thinking they are young and strong enough to fight it off.

They may not be comfortable, but they will do as they are told. People are made of sterner stuff than we realize. In the Great Depression and WWII they put up with all kind of things we would say are "unimaginable" and we think we could not put up with. I don't think so. I grew up with the "Greatest Generation" of my parent's generation and I didn't think they were so great. They were ordinary people called upon to do extraordinary things. I am confident that if I had to do similar things, I would and I could. So could any young people today, if they had what FDR called a "rendezvous with destiny."

As I said, when Uncle Sam ordered the entire nation to get a polio vaccine in the 1960s, we lined up and took it. No questions asked. If they develop a coronavirus vaccine and tell everyone to take it, we will. Distrust of the government began with the Vietnam war, and it has been promoted ever since by a certain political party, but I predict people will stop the irrational doubting when their lives are at stake.

UNRELATED NEWSFLASH: The Japanese medical establishment just announced that coronovirus may be linked to a case of encephalitis in a patient in his 20s, who is in intensive care. Yikes!

Quote from JedRothwell

a case of encephalitis in a patient in his 20s,

China 2 weeks go 56 yr old from Jan24

The medical staff then conducted gene sequencing on samples of his cerebrospinal fluid and confirmed the presence of the novel coronavirus, diagnosing the COVID-19 patient with encephalitis, an inflammation of the brain.

After the treatment of viral encephalitis, the patient's neurological symptoms gradually disappeared.

He was transferred to the infectious ward on Feb. 18 and was discharged from the hospital on Feb. 25.

http://www.xinhuanet.com/english/2020-03/05/c_138846529.htm

"Liu Jingyuan, ICU director of the hospital and attending doctor of the patient, said that once a COVID-19 patient is found to have disorders of consciousness,

medical staff should consider the possibility of nervous system infections and carry out cerebrospinal fluid tests in time,

to avoid delayed diagnosis and further reduce the mortality rate of critically ill patients.

Here is a song I thought of which is relevant for us now.

I think the theme is both depressing but at the same time a little uplifting. Hopefully we can sum up the courage.

The impression that I get (Never had to, knock on wood)

Quote

I have a limited supply of gloves but a nurse told me I can toss them into the washing machine and reuse them.

Costco has excellent nitrile disposable gloves which are inexpensive. If they are momentarily out of stock, they will have them again. If you wash surgical gloves in a machine (I didn't know you could do that) then test them by inflation (like one would test a condom) before use.

Sounds like somewhat of a mood-killer

Quote from JedRothwell

Not according to the W.H.O. and the Chinese. I have pointed out the reasons why they do not have many undetected infections. I listed the technical reasons and pointed to documents with detailed information. If you have some reason to doubt the W.H.O.,

WHO is the best source of disinformation if you remember the swine flue that has been invented to promote business only.

Children do almost never show signs of infections. Where did you read that the Chinese did test all 100'000'000 Million children ??? or at least the 1'000'000 in wuhan ??? or 5'000'000 in the region ??

If I interpret your message correct then you will make the Americans believe that they should accept the same measures as the Chinese did. Being jailed at home for at least 4 weeks.

If you can stay home 4 weeks that's fine and may be will delay your infection. But corona virus stay for ever they do not go away as always somebody is carrying them without any notice.

The only working tactics is to delay the spread to prevent any overloading of the health system.

Quote from seven_of_twenty

Costco has excellent nitrile disposable gloves which are inexpensive.

Wearing gloves is just silly! If you stay with your habits nothing changes...

Full hazmat gear then?

Quote from seven_of_twenty

If you wash surgical gloves in a machine (I didn't know you could do that) then test them by inflation (like one would test a condom) before use.

Right! If it leaks, toss it out.

I did not know you could wash them, but the hygienist at the dentist's office said you can. I washed one pair twice so far. I do not have many, so I need to conserve them.

I am sure they would never re-use them for surgery, but for protecting me against gym equipment it seems adequate. My wife uses them with pastels, because some pastel dust is somewhat toxic. She recommends putting baby powder into them, and then putting them in a bag of baby powder and shaking it up. That makes it easier to put them on, and keeps your hands a little dryer.

A Japanese newspaper showed how to make a makeshift face mask with three layers of heavy paper towels, some rubber bands to go around your ear, and a stapler. You fold the towels, staple the rubber bands at the ends, and unfold. A bit like origami. I think it is better than nothing.

Here is a video from a hospital in Hong Kong showing how to make a face mask with paper towels. This is more sophisticated than the Japanese ones. It is reportedly 90% as efficient as the commercially made ones.

https://www.bkreader.com/2020/…own-protective-face-mask/

The Worldmeters stats are somewhat hopeful today, when you look closely.

China is down to 44 new cases.

S. Korea is way down from where it was last week, down to 165. A week ago it was 500 to 800 per day.

Japan is down, and remains stable, at 28. It has been closer to 50 lately.

Only Italy and Iran are still in dire trouble, with 1,797 and 595 cases, respectively.

The U.S. has 83 new cases. I expect this dramatic increase is not because the pandemic is increasing in the U.S. but because doctors are finally getting test kits. So, in a sense, this is good news. At least we know where we stand, and patients can be quarantined.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

Quote from JedRothwell

I did not know you could wash them

If your masks are the cloth type with inserts.... You can just soak them in ethanol (<50) to kill any surface virus/bacteria. But I would replace the insert filters.

I dunno, In Roseland67 world where I live,

(and I’m King btw), I see this virus running its course and burning out around May/June timeframe, hopefully sooner.

Now, to be sure, many will get sick, many will suffer and terribly, many will die, but it will end, (just not soon enough).

After which the CDC and other global health orgs. will continue research on this nasty

Bug and become much smarter on how to deal with it’s like again, (because it’s gonna happen again).

Meanwhile, we try to be smart, “sterile”, cleaner than normal and aware of our condition.

Quote from Roseland67

I see this virus running its course and burning out around May/June timeframe, hopefully sooner.

Do you know of some technical reason for that to happen? A natural science based reason? Or is that just a hunch?

Donald "Just-a-hunch" Trump today tweeted in response to the stock market falling 8% today:

"So last year 37,000 Americans died from the common Flu. It averages between 27,000 and 70,000 per year. Nothing is shut down, life & the economy go on. At this moment there are 546 confirmed cases of CoronaVirus, with 22 deaths. Think about that!"

Okay, I thought about that. Here's what I think. I think this person is either innumerate, or he is trying to bamboozle the public. If he cannot tell the difference between 0.1% and 2.0% mortality rate he is innumerate. If he can tell the difference, he is hoping that the public cannot. Especially, he is trying to bamboozle people who make a living trading stocks. Those people understand numbers. I sometimes think they do not understand much else, or much about the real world. But they do understand numbers. They also know how to find the average of 27,000 and 70,000, and then multiply by 20: that's ~970,000 dead, if this is as contagious at seasonal flu and if nothing drastic is done to stop it.

I read briefly that the latest W.H.O. data indicates it may not be as contagious as seasonal flu. The R0 was high in the early stages because sick people and well people were crammed together in hospital waiting rooms, in China.

Quote from JedRothwell

Right! If it leaks, toss it out.

I did not know you could wash them, but the hygienist at the dentist's office said you can. I washed one pair twice so far. I do not have many, so I need to conserve them.

I am sure they would never re-use them for surgery, but for protecting me against gym equipment it seems adequate. My wife uses them with pastels, because some pastel dust is somewhat toxic. She recommends putting baby powder into them, and then putting them in a bag of baby powder and shaking it up. That makes it easier to put them on, and keeps your hands a little dryer.

I don't see the need for gloves. Gloves are used in most hospital settings (and in food services) not to prevent the wearer from being infected but to stop the wearer from transmitting infection to others. Even if you wear gloves, the danger is that in handling objects the outside of the gloves will pick up the virus from surfaces and then you will unconsciously touch your face with the infected gloves. What is really needed here is discipline in not touching your face unless your hands have just been washed. If you can achieve that discipline then the major route for infection is broken. Frequent hand washing is key. Whether or not a glove has a leak in it seems to me to be entirely irrelevant to communication of the virus.

The major advantage of masks is that they are physical and psychological barrier to face touching. They turn face touching from an unconscious activity into a conscious activity that can thereby be stopped. For just walking around in public, masks are not a useful way to avoid Covid-19 since it seems that the virus itself is heavier than air and doesn't travel very far on droplets. If you see someone coughing and sneezing ... stay away from them, that is better than a mask. Only in really tight, confined situations (airplanes) where it is hard to move away is a mask really useful. Medical staff need masks because it is their job to move towards, not away from, coughing, sneezing individuals (what amazing professions!). Infected people need masks in order to limit the distribution of the virus into their nearby environment.

I see this virus running its course and burning out around May/June timeframe, hopefully sooner.

Quote from JedRothwell

Do you know of some technical reason for that to happen? A natural science based reason? Or is that just a hunch?

The technical reason is that it is highly infectious so when it gets its teeth into any community it will rapidly ramp up to a peak which is sustained until enough people have caught it (and are no longer carriers) that it dies out (though the nature of this is that like flu it is not easy for it to die out completely).

What people are trying to do in the UK is to control the shape of this curve so that:

(a) peak happens in Summer, away from winter flu

(b) various measures slow things down to broaden out the peak and allow health services to cope

(c) nevertheless we have enough exposure this Summer that it will not come back and bite in the Winter when we have flu as well

June would be an early end. Not sure that will fit (b) and (c). In any case we can only control it a bit, so che sera sera.