Covid-19 News

    Quote from RobertBryant

    A good place for Dr THH to get feedback is in the comments section on the Medrxiv paper..


    this anakysis could also be very helpful for the authors..

    Well done..


    RB - I'm sorry but I find your eliptical comments difficult to understand, though it is nice to be congratulated for my posts here (you could with less effort just have liked the post).


    How about just giving us "straight goods".

    Quote from JedRothwell

    On the other hand, he did get into Harvard, which was not easy.


    With a few 100 millions you can enter any US university... (what he did)

    Quote from JedRothwell

    He wrote many other programs himself, including ones that I used.

    This must be one you got privately. All other programs (besides MS basic) he wrote have been stolen from others and just reshaped by MS. Most popular steal: visicalc.

    Quote from JedRothwell

    He is a brilliant programmer.


    His talents can be subsumed as a good hacker. Obviously he had no clue about software design, but a very good business instinct. So he just in time went to apple to steal Windows without understanding how apple did the MAC. I personally had access to all internal apple stuff regarding the initial MAC. It has been built upon Classcal an advanced PASCAL based OO language. What the hacker Gates copied was just the runtime system of the MAC and in the first Windows/Word version he used the original apple menu structure - he later had to change due to patent infringements.


    His business model was one of the most criminal tasks pursued in western history. He sold intentionally bugged software to indirectly force people to buy updates. The errors were also the reason why suddenly countless windows helping groups surged what did help to make MS popular. Most of these group members were us stubborn and single minded as followers of Scientology or other sects. This religious mindset strategy has been invented my IBM's Tom Watson. Watson himself wrote the IBM white book about how to manage people and how to reshape them with the very same methods Scientology uses.


    I don't believe that such a corrupt mind as Gates was ever will change into a real philanthropist. But wonders may happen even among free masons.

    Quote from THHuxleynew

    RB - I'm sorry but I find your comments difficult to understand,

    Here is the direct, non eliptical link for your convincing statistical analysis


    https://www.medrxiv.org/conten…101/2020.05.28.20114835v1


    They may not accept a pseudonnym.... try disqus signin?


    to "start the discussion"

    Bon Courage.. as they say in Canada..at in least Quebec.

    ..

    (sorry it was Dr Ash K not Dr KK (Gill)who posted .. the straight goods..

    They seem to be a sisterhood of drs.


    RB - I've mostly given up commenting on these preprint papers unless they seem particularly important. There are so many! This paper is not (really) claiming HCQ+AZT is good. It is claiming that early treatment is possibly better than later treatment on viral load test basis. i have no quarrel with that tentative result, and to point out the lack of outcome significance is not fair when the authors do not claim outcome significance. My comment here was because some people might have taken your posting that study as evidence for HCQ actually working. Which it is not.


    I don't want you to think this is a one-off. Lots of "HCQ seems good" links have been posted here and people might get the idea that there is no smoke without fire. My point is that this weak evidence is really no evidence at all of HCQ being good. I'm not sure that everyone understands why that is, so i did the explicit calculations in this one case.


    I know also that many people here - including I'm sure you, are capable of working out the chances of 1 patient dying out of 18 given mortality of x as 18C1 * x * (1-x)^17 = 18x(1-x)^17. Note that 18C1 is the number of ways of selecting 1 object from 18 (18 ways). So i doubt we need internet confirmation of that aspect. If the authors has waited till their ICU patient had (possibly) recovered that would have better numbers: (1-x)^18. In this case 10%, but still not at all convincing given the selection effect (so many hospitals, those with good results will report them).


    I don't like all this jump to politicise HCQ here by assuming those being cautious about it are part of some conspiracy, or just biassed. I'm not biassed on HCQ and while the negative evidence is flaky, the positive evidence is also flakey. In a battle of flakiness you can discount the more flaky negatives, just like the more flaky positives, but still the positives do not win because there is no good positive RCT evidence in spite of a few RCTs.

    Quote from Wyttenbach

    [On the other hand, he did get into Harvard, which was not easy.]


    With a few 100 millions you can enter any US university... (what he did)


    He did not have hundreds of millions when he went to Harvard! That was before he founded Microsoft, obviously. His family was middle class.


    What you say makes no sense. Also, he was and remains a superb programmer. I probably know more about his work than you do, because I was using his products from the start, and I was programming myself.


    It happens that Gates and I are the same age with similar backgrounds. We learned to program the same way, in high school on timeshare equipment. We both succeeded with the same strategy, which was to migrate 1960s era mainframe and minicomputer software to microcomputers. You seem to think that was easy. I assure you, it was not. Those computers were much smaller and less reliable.


    Quote from Wyttenbach

    So he just in time went to apple to steal Windows without understanding how apple did the MAC.


    Jobs took the Apple Mac GUI software from Xerox Parc. Jobs did not invent it. As he said, "good artists copy; great artists steal." He attributed that to Picasso. It would apply to him.


    Granted, it took a long time to shoehorn the GUI into the PC. IBM did not design the machine for that. Microsoft did not design it at all. They just made it do practical things. So did I.


    What sound non-flakey to you?


    Some speculation about Surgisphere, some politics?


    I'm looking for the science published on HCQ. You know, the stuff unbiassed doctors would consider...


    If you just want to say that there is a whole load of politics here, then i agree. But you then are making political arguments, and have not yet given us any scientific or medical reason to think HCQ works.

    Quote from THHuxleynew

    I'm looking for the science published on HCQ. You know, the stuff unbiassed doctors would consider.

    Keep looking... let us know when you find it.... maybe you could let WHO know before midJune... WHO is looking for ... just like THH...

    .. I don't need HCQ PDQ. in Oceania . the active cases trend is asymptotic to zero


    Another 11 days weeks to the WHO evaulation... so they say

    https://www.firstpost.com/heal…rus-patients-8412861.html

    in the meantime...

    "World Health Organization resumes coronavirus trial on malaria drug hydroxychloroquine after examining safety concerns


    https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/0…fter-safety-concerns.html


    I am looking for what happens to Costa Rica..... now that the chain of causation has been broken


    Surgisphere> Lancet.> OOPS !!!!! ....... WHO> Costa Rica

    Quote from RobertBryant

    Keep looking... let us know when you find it.... maybe you could let WHO know before midJune... WHO is looking for ... just like THH...

    .. I don't need HCQ PDQ. in Oceania . the active cases trend is asymptotic to zero


    We have all posted it on here, and it is neutral. What I don't understand is why you take no good positive evidence + politicisation => HCQ is obviously a helpful treatment, those asking for normal caution are all politically motivated.


    I'm sure some of those cool on HCQ are politically motivated, just as I'm sure of the converse.


    In my view, given what we now know (as opposed to what we knew 4 weeks ago), the lack of good positive evidence from RCTs means most people would want to be cautious about HCQ.


    I'm glad that you are in a lucky position with all this stuff being of only theoretical interest! I'd not wish COVID on anyone.

    Quote from THHuxleynew

    https://fullfact.org/health/co…ne-chloroquine-treatment/


    This is a silly article of an illiterate spin doctor. Surveys are done with questioning max 2-3% of a group under consideration. This idiot says 37% are no all.


    Thus this guy know that most likely more than 50% of all doctors treating corona patients do not prescribe medication or just use it?


    Quote from THHuxleynew

    I'm looking for the science published on HCQ. You know, the stuff unbiassed doctors would consider...


    This is what you obviously don't do. Your intent is to find nonsense as above. Do you know that HCQ has been tested (the last ten years) for many other virus prevention including common flu?? The same has been done with Ivermectin and all is published and shows a high efficiency!


    Either you stop acting like a spin doctor or you really start to contribute/help to sort out the mess (human drama) the world wide mafia produced.


    As a British man you have an obligation to explain why the death toll in UK is by far the worst on planet earth. You have to explain why your country is run by cricket brain people with far below average intelligence and moral. But if we read your posted stuff, then the questions are already answered!

    Quote from THHuxleynew

    I'm glad that you are in a lucky position with all this stuff being of only theoretical interest!

    Not theoreticall... my wife has visited two Covid patients. at (hospital-in-the -home) in the past six weeks..

    If she gets it ... I get it.

    and we have both been nasalpronged for Covid.. result -ve

    They never told us before the test that we had to quarantine for 24 hrs to get the test findngs.. typical Australia...lucky we had a stash of toilet rolls!!

    Do you have any patients? THH.

    Patience is a virtue.


    Wait up... ~11 days the WHO will reveal their findings..on HCQ....WHEN is not exact.. mid June .....so they say..

    Quote from Wyttenbach

    either you stop acting like a spin doctor

    I think Dr THH has a noble quest.. to search for HCQ truth or argument..

    "To continue my quest for positive evidence. Does anyone claim this study is positive evidence for HCQ/AZT effectiveness enough to outweigh lack of any strong evidence elsewhere? If so I will comment on it."

    I proffer again my suggestion to THH direct his quest to Dr KK(Gilll).

    She ia a patient-centred medical practioner and can provide some truth or argument..

    from a medical rather than an academic circuit-design POV.

    And in Ontario the active cases are not trending asymptotically to zero.


    She heads a proactive Dr group in Ontario,,

    Also maybe Dr Yohannis Woubishet( Stanford) can be quest-ed.


    Here is only Dr Kaur's twitter.account .. but a noble quester can probably find how to

    connect directly

    https://twitter.com/dockaurG?r…mp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor

    Quote from Wyttenbach

    As a British man you have an obligation to explain why the death toll in UK is by far the worst on planet earth. You have to explain why your country is run by cricket brain people with far below average intelligence and moral.


    I've already vented my anger over that. Basically, we have a PM with known character flaws elected with a large majority, who then centralised power in his own hands, removing from his party all of those with ministerial experience, and making his cabinet agree to do what he decides (the principle of cabinet government in this country being collective decision-making - a check against the all too large power of the executive being concentrated in one person). So he is left with no-one else capable of making tough decisions in spite of being lazy and having no interest in details (proven over previous time as a minister). I did not vote for him, and did everything I could to prevent his winning the election. But we have a two-party system and the opposition party had chosen someone also totally unfit for office as leader.


    It was what you call a lose-lose situation. The US has its own equivalent.


    If you look deeper and ask why we get to the problems for western democracies and globalisation during the last 10 years when real salaries for most of the population have reduced, but those for the top 5% have increased. When jobs for the bottom 20% have become deeply insecure with poorer employment conditions that ever used to be allowed. What you might call trickle-up. These afflict many western countries, certainly France, Italy, UK, US.


    I'm not here spinning a left-wing political message. These problems are beyond left or right, and speak to how rapid technological change has changed things, but our societies have not worked out a new equilibrium or even where they want to be.


    Exciting times, but not easy. And political mistakes electing bad leaders are the least of it.

    • Official Post
    Quote from Wyttenbach

    As a British man you have an obligation to explain why the death toll in UK is by far the worst on planet earth


    I think it is simple. The intention all along was to go for 'herd immunity' (and who cares if old and sick people die?) but when it became obvious that this would cause the government a lot of trouble and criticism they decided to do all the right things, lock-down, track and trace, travel restrictions, but in the wrong order and too late to be effective. So they have achieved herd immunity at great expense while appearing to be 'following the science' .

    Quote from Wyttenbach

    As a British man you have an obligation to explain why the death toll in UK is by far the worst on planet earth.


    Not "by far" the worst. Worldmeters, sorted by deaths per capita, shows Belgium is the worst, with the UK more or less tied with Spain, Italy, Sweden and France, with rates ranging from 445 to 585 per 1 million population. Give us 6 more months and the U.S., Brazil and Russia will surpass the U.K. We're number one!


    I can explain this easily. These countries, and the U.S., Brazil and Russia, have a thousand times more infections, and thousand times more deaths than they would if they were to implement the common sense, proven techniques needed to control the epidemic. The techniques that have controlled it in China, Japan, Korea and Alaska. Hundreds of thousands of people the U.S. and these other countries have died, and will now die in vain, because we have not done this. There is no sign the Federal government has any intention of doing it.


    I can explain that, too. Former Sec. of State Rex Tillerson explained it. He said Trump is a XXXX moron. That's the problem! Unfortunately, so are the other top people in the administration. They stand by and do nothing as ~1,200 people die every day, even though they could easily stop this from happening and thereby win the election. That has to be stupidest thing any administration has done in U.S. history.


    I do not suppose for one second that the administration is deliberately killing off 1,200 a day in some nefarious plot. There is no benefit to it. There is no money to be made, and it will certainly hurt their prospects with the voters. They don't intend to do this. But I can see from their statements and their actions that they do not understand the situation, and they have no idea what to do to stop the deaths. Neither does the governor of Georgia. To be sure, people in the administration have talked about case tracking and the other techniques. Fouchi mentioned this. Trump said something about "hundreds of people" doing case tracking. The governor of Georgia did put a few hundred people on the job. The thing is, we need hundreds of thousands of people, given the number of infections per day. Trying to fix the problem with a few hundred people is like trying to bail out the Titanic with a plastic beach bucket.


    I am sure the ass-backwards response of the UK government is also because they are stupid people. Very Stupid People. History is often shaped by stupid people. Look at World War I.


    Edited for profanity. Shane

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