The Playground

    Quote from Fm1

    Yet officials hope that the early signals that it is milder turn out to be accurate. Preliminary data from South Africa shows that hospitalization risk is 29% lower for omicron than other strains.

    [ two dose vaccine 93% effective against severe infection for delta]

    Quote from Fm1

    Also, a two-dose Pfizer vaccine was “33% protective” for infection and 70% effective at preventing severe cases.

    These are straws in the wind. But, putting these two together, the risks for double vaccinated people are 0.71*0.67/0.07 = 6.7X higher for omicron than for delta.


    Which is why so many countries are going for boosters, which raise ab level 2-3X higher than what it is after double vaccination and also broaden the antibody response.

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    Quote from Mark U

    Again I ask: are adverse events for the Flu vaccine elevated in 2021? The answer is probably not. I ask: Do the adverse events reported per million Covid shots dwarf the counts per million Flu shots?

    Certainly they do:


    (a) most AEs are very mild: the mRNA vaccines are more reactogenic than Flu vaccines. Go figure.


    (b) You have not taken my point. People will reckon a slight headache after some unknown vaccine is a blood clot (I've actually spent 30 min with some who noted a friend had a headache after talking AZ and therefore maybe had a blood clot). Of course blood clots are a rare side effect of AZ. Headaches, fervers are a common side effect of all vaccines. In general any novel vaccine will get more AE reports than an old one. And the special circumstances of quickly generated pandemic vaccines, with heightened political antivaxxer memes engaging people who never before had though about vaccines and making 10% of the US thinking Bill Gates is microchipping them - that makes for enourmously more AE reports.

    It looks like Dr. Campbell did not look at the data source::


    Two dozes of the Pfizer/BioNTech COVID-19 vaccine provided just 33 percent protection against infection during a surge in infections in South Africa that is dominated by the new Omicron variant, according to preliminary analyses announced today (December 14) at a press briefing by Discovery Health (South Africa’s largest private health insurer) and the South African Medical Research Council. This compares with 80 percent protection before Omicron’s emergence.


    So this basically is marketing info as all hospitals/insurers in the western world are run by the FM/R/J/B mafia. We will have to wait for definite data as from Dr. Campbell's presentation it is already clear that these folks did mix data (age virus types) what we don't like. We also like no data just based on PCR+ as we have at least 50% false positives.


    We know from lab tests that Pfizer protection cannot be 33% as it it's neutralization power is reduced by a factor of 40..100x! so it best case is 2.5%. Nobody explains why its still should be 33% ..... You also see in the graph below that one case claimed as infection most likely was a false PCR+. This person shows a reduction of 1000x!!!!

    So we have 3 cases of 12 that show 0 effect from Pfizer....Why should a booster then work...in general..



    Israel:: https://datadashboard.health.gov.il/COVID-19/general


    Booster vacation definitely at end now. Cases go up again.


    UK: All-time high in cases > 78K 15th December 2021. Greetings from Omicron --> deaths will go down soon.


    Switzerland:: Just is on the downscale now.


    Germany:: Is one weak ahead of Switzerland on the down turn track. Not much time left for booster selling. Germany just order 70 mio. booster doses from Moderna!!! So end of game for Pfizer!

    But very high death number in Germany about 500 last day. Typical for no treatment.


    France: Has a real strong up tick already reaching German figures but with far less deaths! How do they treat?


    Denmark, Italy, Spain, Greece,etc.. all have strong 4th waves and prove that vaccines have no influence on cases.


    India, without Kerala/Mizoram, now waits since 7 months for a new wave... The worms protect perfectly...

    Quote from Wyttenbach

    We know from lab tests that Pfizer protection cannot be 33% as it it's neutralization power is reduced by a factor of 40..100x! so it best case is 2.5%.

    Umm...


    I don't need to tell anyone why this comment is wrong. I will be charitable to W and reckon it is his antivaxxer tendencies that are removing his critical abilities here.


    The neutralising antibodies zapp the virus particle spikes. It is a war between them, and the virus replicating. If enough particles manage to get to another cell and reproduce before their spikes are zapped... They win. Just as with pandemics, if R < 1 you get fast decay to 0, if R > 1 you get full-blown infection.


    Not quite that simple because antibody response scales with infection, and there are other effects.


    But it is certainly not linear. (And teh same argument - nonlinear) can be made between the effect of the vaccine and the protection. protection is measured as how many people do not develop infections who otherwise (statistically) would have done so.


    You need enough antibodies, whatever that is.


    So scaling protection linearly with antibodies - it is just... incompetent.


    W - try to leave behind your antivaxxer prejudice and apply math - which I know you can do - and common sense - which I'm not sure you have - to how you model this.


    THH

    Isn’t this better for humans?


    An incredibly infectious virus that isn’t anywhere near as deadly?


    Doesn’t this hasten herd immunity with less fatalities?


    Moving forward, Doesn’t this allow the human immune system to better recognize Covid as an invader and begin the immune response?


    If Covid is going to be a constant in human development moving forward, it seems this Omicrom variant is doing what we ideally want it to do, mutating to a less deadly form.


    Or should I press “reset” on my common sense logic and reason button?

    Quote from Wyttenbach

    UK: All-time high in cases > 78K 15th December 2021. Greetings from Omicron --> deaths will go down soon.

    Omicron is exponentially increasing cases - true. 88K today.


    Omicron deaths will be go down? They have been going down due to boosters and delta. In two weeks we will get the effect of the omicron surge on deaths. That surge will go way up - 500K/day as minimum. We don't know protection from omicron, but it is certain deaths will go up. We just don't know how much. The new antivirals might help, but I'm not sure if they can be deployed in time.


    The UK was very slow with boosters till a few days ago. Just too late to prevent something pretty bad.


    I predict - there will be a peak in deaths/day sometime between 3 weeks and 12? weeks from now. It will be higher than anything over the Summer.


    Anyone can be wrong predicting COVID, so I guess we will see...


    THH

    Quote from Roseland67

    Isn’t this better for humans?


    An incredibly infectious virus that isn’t anywhere near as deadly?

    Possibly. Maybe. It depends on how much less deadly it is. That has not yet been established yet. On the other hand, the fact that it is much more infectious has been established, with the data from South Africa and the UK.


    To simplify greatly, suppose it were twice as infectious but half as deadly. We would end up with the same number of dead people. No advantage. We would also end up with many, many more sick people. Being sick is frightening, debilitating, and it keeps you out of work or school for weeks. So that's bad.


    The best thing is to get everyone fully vaccinated with a booster. The data so far indicates that booster restores immunity to almost the same level it was with the original COVID variants. Let us hope that is true!


    Quote from Roseland67

    Doesn’t this hasten herd immunity with less fatalities?

    I do not think so. The level needed to achieve of herd immunity is a function of how infectious a disease is. The more infectious, the higher the percent of immune population you need. I believe the most infectious common virus is rubella, and I read somewhere that herd immunity only happens at something like 90% or more. I don't recall the exact number. Fortunately, we can reach 90% with vaccinations, so rubella can be stamped out.


    (When I say "immune population" I mean from natural immunity or a vaccine, or a combination of the two. Either, or both, will confer herd immunity.)

    Quote from Roseland67

    If Covid is going to be a constant in human development moving forward, it seems this Omicrom variant is doing what we ideally want it to do, mutating to a less deadly form.

    As times goes on more people have been vaccinated, more people have previous covid infection. That won't stop new waves, but it will make them less deadly.

    Quote from Roseland67

    Or should I press “reset” on my common sense logic and reason button?

    I think you should read some more about epidemiology and herd immunity. The fact that the level needed for herd immunity is higher for a more infectious disease is pretty basic. That is explained in textbooks and technical mass media reports in the last two years. You missed it, which is fine. You can't expect to know everything. But you also cannot expect to use logic and reason to understand biology. It is so complicated, you need to just slog through the textbooks. It is not like mathematics which a person can grasp mainly with logic and reason.




    Veering off topic . . .


    Computer programming is logical and based on reason, but actual computer languages and manuals are so chaotic, redundant, and mired in previous development history that the only way you can get a handle on the language is to slog through the documentation and examples. The first iteration of Pascal was a thing of beauty. It was elegant. The whole thing fit into a few pages of text, and every aspect of it was instantly understandable. Unfortunately, it was not adequate for any real-world application, such as accounting. It had to built out, and built out, and added to and added to . . . Nowadays, a working Pascal compiler has hundreds of built-in functions, many of them duplicated or weirdly limited, such as the functions to convert integers to strings. It was an agglomeration over time. Inelegant, but you can do ANYTHING with it.


    See:


    Delphi Language Reference - RAD Studio

    it is my totally uninformed opinion, (and hope), that infections continue to increase but deaths actually go down as we find Omicron is in fact less deadly than original Covid-19 and it’s Delta variant.


    But, hey, I’m just predicting also and will probably be wrong.

    Quote from Roseland67

    it is my totally uninformed opinion, (and hope), that infections continue to increase but deaths actually go down as we find Omicron is in fact less deadly than original Covid-19 and it’s Delta variant.


    But, hey, I’m just predicting also and will probably be wrong.

    Numbers matter. We expect infection rates up to 1,000,000 / day with omicron. It spreads so quickly.


    compare that with 40K/day delta.


    I needs to be 1/25 the deadliness for deaths/day to be the same. For UK it is hospitalisations/day which stress and break our health service.


    I expect, if we are lucky, 1/2 the deadliness.


    But we really don't know.

    Quote from THHuxleynew

    Variant records. Yuk!

    Yuk indeed. But did they have them in the first iterations? I don't recall . . .




    Hmmmmm . . . They had them in Borland Turbo Pascal ver. 3, 1988:


    http://bitsavers.informatik.uni-stuttgart.de/pdf/borland/turbo_pascal/TURBO_Pascal_Reference_Manual_CPM_Version_3_Dec88.pdf


    You can see the language is already larger than the original implementation, with many practical additions, for example to control video output. Plus commands that you could easily implement yourself such as UpCase. Plus some strange stuff such as:


    Syntax: Swap(Num);

    The Swap function exchanges the high and low order bytes of its integer argument Num and returns the resulting value as an integer.
    Example:

    Swap($1234) returns $3412 (values in hex for clarity).


    Say what?!




    Lookee here. They still have it. I had no idea. This is funny, in a geeky way:


    Delphi in a Nutshell
    Name Swap Function Syntax function Swap(Value: Integer): Integer; Description The Swap function swaps the bytes in the least significant word of Value. It…
    www.oreilly.com


    Swap is not a real function, but is expanded inline.

    Tips and Tricks

    • This function is provided for backward compatibility. It has little use in its current incarnation.
    • Swapping bytes is a common activity when moving files or data through a network. . . .


    "Backward compatibility" is what I meant by agglomeration over time. Microsoft Windows is a gigantic agglomeration. Microsoft is a prisoner in a jail of their own making. If they dump the strange stuff, and obsolete stuff, people will find their old programs no longer work. They will say, "as long as I have to shop around for new application programs, I might as well try a Mac instead."

    The swap stuff is useful when handling byte order when parsing binary data.

    Claim: 60,000 Scientists Call for end of Mass Vaccination Program


    Claim: 60,000 Scientists Call for end of Mass Vaccination Program
    Recently, in France’s press, a call to stop the current eradication of the SARS-CoV-2 pathogen via vaccination program becomes ever louder as purportedly
    trialsitenews.com



    Recently, in France’s press, a call to stop the current eradication of the SARS-CoV-2 pathogen via vaccination program becomes ever louder as purportedly 60,000 scientists have signed up to halt the current COVID-19 mass vaccine approach, favoring a transition to a model more suited for the forthcoming endemic states, including the necessity of learning to co-exist with SARS-CoV-2, the virus behind COVID-19.


    Called the Great Barrington Declaration, a growing army of rebellious-minded infectious disease epidemiologists and other scientists, physicians and public health experts came together to compare notes about their grave concerns associated with the risks of physical and mental health impacts associated with COVID-19 mass vaccination programs.


    Rather, the group favors what they call “Focused Protection.” Representing both the left and the right, the full spectrum of nationality and discipline, the group of scientists and researchers claim current lockdown policies are devastating human communities both in the short run and long term. What will result from this horribly misguided scheme believe the signatories?


    Lower childhood vaccination rates

    Worsening cardiovascular disease outcomes

    Fewer cancer screenings

    Deteriorating mental health

    There is no good outlook based on the current direction shared by signatories of The Great Barrington Declaration, reports French Daily News.



    Recently, in France’s press, a call to stop the current eradication of the SARS-CoV-2 pathogen via vaccination program becomes ever louder as purportedly 60,000 scientists have signed up to halt the current COVID-19 mass vaccine approach, favoring a transition to a model more suited for the forthcoming endemic states, including the necessity of learning to co-exist with SARS-CoV-2, the virus behind COVID-19.


    Called the Great Barrington Declaration, a growing army of rebellious-minded infectious disease epidemiologists and other scientists, physicians and public health experts came together to compare notes about their grave concerns associated with the risks of physical and mental health impacts associated with COVID-19 mass vaccination programs.


    Rather, the group favors what they call “Focused Protection.” Representing both the left and the right, the full spectrum of nationality and discipline, the group of scientists and researchers claim current lockdown policies are devastating human communities both in the short run and long term. What will result from this horribly misguided scheme believe the signatories?


    Lower childhood vaccination rates

    Worsening cardiovascular disease outcomes

    Fewer cancer screenings

    Deteriorating mental health

    There is no good outlook based on the current direction shared by signatories of The Great Barrington Declaration, reports French Daily News.


    Subscribe to the Trialsitenews "COVID-19" Channel

    No spam - we promise

    Email address

    But why isn’t vaccination needed?

    This represents a fundamental question given medical establishments from around the world have signed on to the mass vaccination paradigm. TrialSite’s founder Daniel O’Connor went on the record, “It would be one thing if the mass COVID-19 vaccination programs were conveniently only in Western societies, that is the more capitalistic cultures where companies are incentivized to monetize the pandemic for investors—while purportedly working to eliminate the virus.” O’Connor continued, “But nearly every advanced or even emerging society as measured by economic health has lined up behind this paradigm including communist countries such as China which has vaccinated more people targeting COVID-19 than any other nation.”


    The TrialSite founder continued that “even Cuba, still a communist country, has developed four vaccines and they as we speak are vaccinating their children on that island nation in a population-wide vaccination scheme. Cuba has developed a substantial physician community and their vaccines are not introduced by companies first and foremost hunting profit—this is a society that is tightly controlled, with not much of a profit motive.”


    Many suspect that the mass vaccination schemes reflect some sort of government and industry cabal in part to drive enormous revenues as well as impose ever greater state control and oversight over populations— corporate money and state power. But as TrialSite’s O’Connor expressed, those countries without a capitalistic motive are pushing universal vaccination as a way to overcome COVID-19 as well—countries like China and Cuba are 100% bought in.


    What do we know now?

    The Great Barrington Declaration group believes that a number of emerging factors lead to other paradigms of dealing with COVID-19. They include:

    Overall understanding of how to treat the virus grows (e.g., elderly and those with comorbidities face a far higher risk of severe disease)

    Measures tailored for the high risk will make a huge difference

    Accumulating immunity leads to greater community protection

    Embrace more granular risk-benefit analyses to determine who receives vaccination versus other forms of care for example

    In the meantime, this group promotes that those not vulnerable to COVID-19 should commence normalcy immediately, simply embracing heightened hygiene measures, for example. They also believe early treatment is of paramount concern, including the embrace of off-label therapies such as Fluvoxamine and potentially even ivermectin and famotidine.


    What is the Great Barrington Declaration?

    The Great Barrington Declaration was written from a global public health and humanitarian perspective, with special concerns about how the current COVID-19 strategies are forcing our children, the working class and the poor to carry the heaviest burden. The response to the pandemic in many countries around the world, focused on lockdowns, contact tracing and isolation, imposes enormous unnecessary health costs on people. In the long run, it will lead to higher COVID and non-COVID mortality than the focused protection plan we call for in the Declaration. You can read more about the effort here.

    But why isn’t vaccination needed?

    This represents a fundamental question given medical establishments from around the world have signed on to the mass vaccination paradigm. TrialSite’s founder Daniel O’Connor went on the record, “It would be one thing if the mass COVID-19 vaccination programs were conveniently only in Western societies, that is the more capitalistic cultures where companies are incentivized to monetize the pandemic for investors—while purportedly working to eliminate the virus.” O’Connor continued, “But nearly every advanced or even emerging society as measured by economic health has lined up behind this paradigm including communist countries such as China which has vaccinated more people targeting COVID-19 than any other nation.”


    The TrialSite founder continued that “even Cuba, still a communist country, has developed four vaccines and they as we speak are vaccinating their children on that island nation in a population-wide vaccination scheme. Cuba has developed a substantial physician community and their vaccines are not introduced by companies first and foremost hunting profit—this is a society that is tightly controlled, with not much of a profit motive.”


    Many suspect that the mass vaccination schemes reflect some sort of government and industry cabal in part to drive enormous revenues as well as impose ever greater state control and oversight over populations— corporate money and state power. But as TrialSite’s O’Connor expressed, those countries without a capitalistic motive are pushing universal vaccination as a way to overcome COVID-19 as well—countries like China and Cuba are 100% bought in.


    What do we know now?

    The Great Barrington Declaration group believes that a number of emerging factors lead to other paradigms of dealing with COVID-19. They include:

    Overall understanding of how to treat the virus grows (e.g., elderly and those with comorbidities face a far higher risk of severe disease)

    Measures tailored for the high risk will make a huge difference

    Accumulating immunity leads to greater community protection

    Embrace more granular risk-benefit analyses to determine who receives vaccination versus other forms of care for example

    In the meantime, this group promotes that those not vulnerable to COVID-19 should commence normalcy immediately, simply embracing heightened hygiene measures, for example. They also believe early treatment is of paramount concern, including the embrace of off-label therapies such as Fluvoxamine and potentially even ivermectin and famotidine.


    What is the Great Barrington Declaration?

    The Great Barrington Declaration was written from a global public health and humanitarian perspective, with special concerns about how the current COVID-19 strategies are forcing our children, the working class and the poor to carry the heaviest burden. The response to the pandemic in many countries around the world, focused on lockdowns, contact tracing and isolation, imposes enormous unnecessary health costs on people. In the long run, it will lead to higher COVID and non-COVID mortality than the focused protection plan we call for in the Declaration. You can read more about the effort here.


    How did the Great Barrington Declaration Come About?
    The Declaration was written from a global public health and humanitarian perspective, with special concerns about how the current COVID-19 strategies are…
    gbdeclaration.org

    60,000 scientists call for an end to mass vaccination
    The scientific community speaks out against the health policy of the authorities: the declaration of Great Barrington (USA) against massive injections of mRNA…
    frenchdailynews.com

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