Covid-19 News

    New Ivermectin meta analysis. Very thorough, so read all before nitpicking:


    Ivermectin for COVID-19: real-time meta analysis of 63 studies
    Ivermectin for COVID-19. Early treatment - 72% improvement, p < 0.0001. All studies - 68% improvement, p < 0.0001. 1 in 1 trillion probability results of the…
    ivmmeta.com


    -Meta analysis using the most serious outcome reported shows 67% [53‑76%] and 86% [75‑92%] improvement for early
    treatment and prophylaxis    , with similar results after exclusion based sensitivity analysis (which excludes all of the GMK/BBC team studies), with primary outcomes, and after restriction to peer-reviewed studies or Randomized Controlled Trials.


    -There is evidence of a negative publication bias, and the probability that an ineffective treatment generated results as positive as the 64 studies is estimated to be 1 in 222 billion.


    - Over 20 countries have adopted ivermectin for COVID-19. The evidence base is much larger and has much lower conflict of
    interest than typically used to approve drugs.


    -Additional upcoming trials including ACTIV-6, COVID-OUT, and PRINCIPLE have been designed in a way that favors finding no effect, with a number of methods including late treatment, selecting low-risk patients, fasting administration, very high conflict of
    interest medication sourcing, and dosing below current clinical practice


    Conclusion:

    Ivermectin is an effective treatment for COVID-19. Treatment is more effective when used early. Meta analysis using the most serious outcome reported shows 67% [53‑76%] and 86% [75‑92%] improvement for early treatment and prophylaxis, with similar results after exclusion based sensitivity analysis (which excludes all of the GMK/BBC team studies), with primary outcomes, and after restriction to peer-reviewed studies or Randomized Controlled Trials. Statistically significant improvements are seen for mortality, ventilation, ICU admission, hospitalization, recovery, cases, and viral clearance. All remain statistically significant after exclusions. 31 studies show statistically significant improvements in isolation. Results are very robust — in
    worst case exclusion sensitivity analysis 53 of 64 studies must be excluded to avoid finding statistically significant efficacy.



    Don't forget other over the counter treatments. Nitric oxide and



    Possible therapeutic effects of Nigella sativa and its thymoquinone on COVID-19


    Possible therapeutic effects of Nigella sativa and its thymoquinone on COVID-19
    COVID-19 is a novel coronavirus that causes a severe infection in the respiratory system. Nigella sativa L. (Ranunculaceae) is an annual flowering plant used…
    www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov



    Covid-19 RCT: Honey and black cumin seed help speed up recovery in Covid-19 patients


    Covid-19 RCT: Honey and black cumin seed help speed up recovery in Covid-19 patients
    A randomised-controlled trial that is awaiting peer review suggests that Covid-19 patients who received a combination of honey and Nigella sativa recovered…
    www.nutraingredients-asia.com


    Thymoquinone: A Promising Natural Compound with Potential Benefits for COVID-19 Prevention and Cure


    Thymoquinone Natural Compound with Benefits for COVID-19 | DDDT
    Thymoquinone (TQ), the main active ingredient of black seed oil, possesses antioxidant, antiviral, antimicrobial, and immunomodulatory benefits.
    www.dovepress.com

    REPORT ON FUTURE RISKS - WHO'


    Dual-use research of concern (DURC) is defined as life science research that is intended for benefit

    but which might be misapplied to do harm (1). Such research has increased substantially in the past two decades. It includes, for instance, synthesis of the poliovirus (2), modification of the mousepox virus (3), production of mammal-transmissible strains of H5N1 avian flu (4, 5) and, more recently,

    de-novo synthesis of the horsepox virus (6).Dual-use issues can arise in a range of disciplines,

    beyond experiments for gain of function.


    WHO both assesses and addresses concernsabout dual use of scientific and technological

    developments by setting normative standards,issuing guidance and guidelines and facilitating

    discussions among stakeholders. In 2010 WHO issued guidance on responsible research

    (7), and, more recently, the WHO’s Thirteenth General Programme of Work (2019-2023)

    mandated that WHO should “be at the forefront of … new scientific fields and the challenges they

    pose” and should closely monitor and provide guidance on “developments at the frontier of

    new scientific disciplines” (8). In 2020, WHO convened discussions with key stakeholder

    groups, including funding organizations, scientific journals and scientific academies and councils (9),

    and issued guidance on biosafety and biosecurity in biomedical laboratories (10). WHO is currently

    developing a new guidance framework on responsible use of life sciences.


    We report here the results of an international horizon scanning exercise, organized by WHO

    to ensure foresight. The group of experts, from a range of disciplines, undertook a broad

    examination of scientific and technological developments that could give rise to concern over

    the next two decades and identified 15 priorities.

    https://apps.who.int/iris/bitstream/handle/10665/346862/9789240036161-eng.pdf?sequence=1&isAllowed=y

    Quote from JedRothwell

    The virus has not become very vaccine resistant. The present vaccines have reduced infections close to zero in many countries.

    In UK vaccinated only get up to 6x more often CoV-19. --> face the reality as it might soon hit you too.


    Quote from Zeus46

    Bullshit. Please provide evidence that 60% of British people have had Covid.

    I do not repeat it for lazy children that do not read posts. It is easy to calculate from the vaccine report around week 10. Then you have to understand how they did go on with cheating the figures. We here to have been at 50% after gamma (March!) ...


    Quote from THHuxleynew

    The easiest way to test for prior infection is N-antibody status

    That's how they cheat you... IG-G!!

    Quote from Shane D.

    New Ivermectin meta analysis. Very thorough, so read all before nitpicking

    Hi Shane, I wonder why you think this is thorough? It treats all studies equally (other than distinguishing between RCTs and non-RCTS). No mention even of bias, or imprecision. It is a superficial analysis.


    Have a look at any of the normal meta-analysis - compare with this one. The other meta-analyses are aware that it is very easy for trial results to be biassed or imprecise (even in RCTs) and have quality control to try to reduce that.


    How do we know this matters? If you measure liklelihood of bias objectively (in terms of lack of information, unclear methodology, etc) and look that the ivermectin results on all studies, or those with minumum likelihood of bias, you find:


    (1) the positive results correlate with likely bias

    (2) the least likely biassed RCTs have roughly neutral results.


    Ivermectin may work. But, the claims from ivmmeta and repeated by many that it clearly works very well are completely unfounded at the moment when you are thorough, and look at all the evidence.


    This stuff about bias is not made up to be nasty to ivermectin. It is a well-known problem with trials.


    Bias as a source of inconsistency in ivermectin trials for COVID-19: A systematic review
    Background and purpose The objective of this systematic review is to summarize the effects of ivermectin for the prevention and treatment of patients with…
    www.medrxiv.org

    Quote from Wyttenbach

    We here to have been at 50% after gamma (March!) ...

    Consistent with that, a Nature article states that about one third of the US had been infected by the end of 2020:


    Population susceptibility at the end of the year was 69.0% (63.6-75.4%), indicating that about one third of the US population had been infected.


    Burden and characteristics of COVID-19 in the United States during 2020 - PubMed
    The COVID-19 pandemic disrupted health systems and economies throughout the world during 2020 and was particularly devastating for the United States, which…
    pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov





    Universal Vaccination to Eradicate COVID-19’ Diminishes: Heavily Vaccinated Ireland Experiences its Latest COVID-19 Surge


    ‘Universal Vaccination to Eradicate COVID-19’ Diminishes: Heavily Vaccinated Ireland Experiences its Latest COVID-19 Surge
    What happened to herd immunity upon vaccination of 70% of a population? While Apex Research Agency leadership, as well as Dr. Anthony Fauci of the
    trialsitenews.com



    What happened to herd immunity upon vaccination of 70% of a population? While Apex Research Agency leadership, as well as Dr. Anthony Fauci of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (NIAID), and the World Health Organization (WHO) promote the ‘vaccinate for COVID-19 to eradicate’ mission with evangelical fervor, the underlying premise centers on the assumption that ubiquitous vaccination can prevent SARS-CoV-2 transmission, helping human society transcend the pandemic. But since the early stages of the pandemic, TrialSite has called out the importance of a multi-faceted strategy including vaccines, treatments (for both early and later stages), and sound public health actions. We weren’t alone in speaking out. Ian MacLeod, writing for Stat News back in February, reported that vaccines alone won’t end the pandemic. The pervasive “vaccinate to eradicate SARS-CoV” theme dominates most health officials’ and politicians’ minds while the science behind the underlying rationale continues to evolve. For example, Dr. Fauci’s elusive herd immunity initially could be reached with 60-70% vaccination, but then that changed to 70% to 75% in other interviews, and yet again the percentage changed to 80% in another interview. NYT: Fauci acknowledges moving goalposts on herd immunity from COVID-19 – Axios Clearly, in America the POTUS appears to follow every course from his top medical advisor. Many nations that are 70% to 80% vaccinated continue to face mounting problems with the novel coronavirus. The most recent example is Ireland.


    Time to Acknowledge

    From Singapore and Israel to pockets of the USA and the UK, TrialSite continues to chronicle intensive COVID-19 surges in heavily vaccinated populations. The Irish Times showcased the problem most recently. 91% of the population over 12 years of age in Ireland is inoculated, and over 75% of the entire nation is vaccinated. But as TrialSite has chronicled, study after study indicates the COVID-19 vaccines wane in effectiveness, particularly when more virulent mutations of the virus emerge—such as Delta.


    Heavily Vaccinated Ireland’s Hit Hard

    With the highest vaccination rate in the entire European Union, the number of patients in Irish hospitals has skyrocketed, the highest levels in several months. With 513 patients hospitalized for Covid, this nation of just under 5 million people now finds itself wondering collectively if vaccination is the only answer.


    With a new seven-day average of 2,119, the Irish Times communicated that conditions have degraded to the point that the national Department of Health doesn’t disclose the daily death count from COVID-19.


    Ireland experienced the first wave of the pandemic in April where in one day the new case count totaled 1,515 with 220 deaths reported on April 24, 2020. A second brief, but deadly surge occurred in January 2021 when on January 9, 2021, the country reported a 6,257 as the 7-day daily new case average. The death rate wasn’t quite as high in this second surge, but more people died than in the previous surge.


    However, from February to July 2021, the nation went into a stable mode where the average number of new cases daily ranged from 250 to 500 while few deaths were reported. However, with the highly transmissible Delta variant cases spiked by late July 2021. By November 1, the 7-day new case average equaled 2,390 and an average 7-day average for deaths was 10.


    Vaccines Not Working to Achieve Herd Immunity

    First, it must be emphasized that the development of vaccines such as the ones now authorized in America and Europe is a monumental achievement considering the timeline, complexities, and pressures involved. TrialSite has emphasized, while a notable accomplishment, these vaccines are early in their product development lifecycle—that is, they could be considered version 1.0 products.


    As infections spread across Ireland, many people landing not only in the hospital but also in the ICU are either partially or fully vaccinated. The situation necessitates triage at this point, acknowledges Ireland’s Chief Medical Officer Dr. Tony Holohan, who declared care must be directed to the “…most vulnerable from COVID-19.”


    But public health officials must be careful what they say, declares TrialSite’s founder Daniel O’Connor. “Hundreds of billions worldwide are allocated to a universal vaccinate to eradicate mission with trillions of GDP at stake over time,” shared O’Connor. Consequently, Chief Medical Officers such as Dr. Holohan must constantly emphasize that the unvaccinated or not fully vaccinated are hospitalized and contribute to greater strain in the hospitals and clinics. The script authored from above doesn’t allow for deviation from the party line—that is, the critical questioning of the current paradigm. TrialSite’s founder shared, “Of course there is the truth that the vaccinated are more protected from severe COVID than the unvaccinated, all things being equal. That is not the point. We are not arguing that the vaccines are not important—they are very important.”


    TrialSite’s founder continued, “However, up until now they [public health leadership] haven’t been allowed to call out that the current paradigm influencing the global initiative is failing. To clarify, the vaccines alone will not lead to herd immunity. And the current vaccine products are too leaky and may represent more of a risk than is publicly acknowledged.”


    But the public health narrative is changing. Recently the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) Director Dr. Rochelle Walensky acknowledged that a uniform ‘vaccinate to eradicate’ program isn’t enough to beat the COVID-19 pandemic.


    Public Health Officials Acknowledge

    In a recent White House briefing Dr. Walensky has been given the green light to transition out of the uniform narrative as the script from above continuously changes:


    “As you have heard me say before, we will not boost our way out of this pandemic. And no vaccine, even a boosted vaccine, provides 100 percent protection. So even after you boost, it remains important for us to remain smart about our prevention strategies while we still have over 93 percent of our counties with high or moderate community transmission.”


    While the emphasis still rests on vaccination, that is continuous boosters, a day of reckoning emerges that the current crop of version 1.0 products, although the result of an incredible effort, remain immature products.


    Not the Right Vaccines?

    Dr. Anne Moore recognizes the proverbial writing on the wall for the current vaccine products on the market but they represent the only medicine in the cabinet—or that is what they are told. A vaccine specialist at UCC’s school of biochemistry, she reports that the SARS-CoV-2 surges around the world will continue until a “transmission-blocking vaccine” is developed as the current products don’t fully block transmission and of course their effectivity wanes within months of the second dose.


    Nonetheless, the vaccines are all that Ireland must work with, at least publicly. Moore declared recently that the National immunization Advisory Committee needs to move swiftly to authorize booster shots. In fact, even though Moore acknowledges that the current vaccines don’t stop transmission she declared “I think we will eventually have to boost the rest of the population … because we are going to see a huge increase in the number of cases.”


    Some TrialSite Questions

    Ok, so let’s just agree that the next booster doses are needed for the entire population of Ireland or anywhere else. Let’s ignore vaccine equity principles as well. What happens when the effects of the booster wear off again? Is the goal to mandate continual boosters indefinitely until SARS-CoV-2 somehow magically goes away? Are there any risks with such a strategy? Could that approach further endanger people’s health? Or is the answer to transition to the endemic stage and learn to live with this pathogen employing combinations of approaches, depending on the circumstances on the ground?


    Covid-19: Number in hospital with the disease reaches highest level in seven months
    Chief medical officer ‘increasingly worried’ about the increase in infections nationwide
    www.irishtimes.com

    Quote from JedRothwell

    It is not likely you will be infected by a wild animal.

    I mean a mammal, such as a mink or bat. They seldom attack people. I do not think COVID resembles rabies, which makes animals aggressive. If insects start spreading COVID, that will be a disaster. This is probably not possible. See:


    Can insects transmit coronavirus?
    Covid-19 and other coronaviruses like SARS and MERS are spread from person to person through tiny viral droplets, not through blood.
    omrf.org


    Felines seem to get COVID. I hope domestic cats cannot get it easily.

    Fascinating take on the UK JCVI (the political scientists) decision not to vaccinate 12-15 year old children.


    The JCVI Speaks: “Natural Infection in Children Could Have Substantial Long-Term Benefits On COVID-19 in the UK”
    "There are reasons that children get sick. Getting sick is not a bad thing."In a previous article, I explored what I thought it meant to be anti-vaccine. In…
    sciencebasedmedicine.org


    Worth reading in detail for how tangled the politics gets here.


    As for the science - well it is getting clearer, slowly, but still has uncertainty:



    The JCVI: Getting everything exactly backwards


    The notion that “early infection would then provide protection against severe disease throughout life” is standard anti-vaccine Pablum, akin to using pregnancy as a form of birth control. Of course, there was never evidence that viral-induced immunity was long-lasting. The JCVI may be surprised to learn that SARS-CoV-2 is a brand new virus, and only time will tell how long immunity to it will last. In fact, recent evidence suggests that vaccine-induced immunity is likely more robust that viral-induced immunity. The JCVI had it exactly backwards.

    Similarly, there was never any evidence that allowing the virus to spread throughout the pediatric population would benefit adults. Again, the JCVI had it exactly backwards. They suggested in May that “vaccinating specific age groups amongst children had little overall impact on hospitalisations and deaths in older adults” and that “All adults will be vaccinated and there is a low risk of child-to-child transmission”. Today, the headlines report that “Children Drive Britain’s Longest-Running Covid Surge” and “England’s COVID Prevalence Rises To Highest Since Start Of Year, ONS Says“. Deaths and hospitalizations have increased as well, though fortunately, there has been some decoupling of cases and these metrics thanks to vaccines. (Predictably contrarian doctors in the US who lavishly praised the JCVI’s “nuance” and “rationality & numeracy” several months ago have absolutely nothing to say about any of this today.)

    Quote from Fm1

    What happened to herd immunity upon vaccination of 70% of a population?

    This rhetorical question from TSN is remarkably easy to answer.


    Even if the vaccine is 100% effective - that will reduce R to 0.3 of its previous value. Which means that if R without vaccination is > 3 the pandemic will continue with exponentially increasing infections.


    We know, without vaccine, that R for delta is > 4 - and probably around 6-8.


    So, it is certain, that with large vaccine hesitancy - as in the US - no vaccine can provide herd immunity against delta. Original COVID with R = 2.5 however would be stopped.


    Vaccines can reduce the time needed to get herd immunity - even though they do not alone porvide it. The number of unvaccinated infactions needed to establish herd immunity is much smaller with 70% vaccinated with a good vaccine.


    THH

    Quote from THHuxleynew

    This rhetorical question from TSN is remarkably easy to answer.


    Even if the vaccine is 100% effective - that will reduce R to 0.3 of its previous value. Which means that if R without vaccination is > 3 the pandemic will continue with exponentially increasing infections.

    The problem in Georgia is that vaccinations are unevenly distributed. Many people in Atlanta are vaccinated, but in some rural areas only 20 to 35% are. So the disease spreads rapidly in rural areas. If the distribution was more even I think the average transmission rate for the state would be lower.


    The Rt fell below 1 in recent weeks, but it is back up to 1. See the graph "Transmission estimates in Georgia"


    GDPR Support

    Quote from Mark U

    Population susceptibility at the end of the year was 69.0% (63.6-75.4%), i

    This (30%) is world wide the same after Alpha. It went up to 50% with gamma a now at least is at 70% with delta!

    Quote from THHuxleynew

    The notion that “early infection would then provide protection against severe disease throughout life” is standard anti-vaccine Pablum, akin to using pregnancy as a form of birth control.

    I think your head is full of buddies hand over bullshit. May be you look for an excuse why you agreed to damage yourself and your children with a non working gene therapy...

    Парадоксальные данные профессора - эпидемиолога Игоря Гундарова , который проанализировал страны, в которых население превышает более 1 млн.человек.

    Вывод печальный - страны, которые провели вакцинацию населения в большем объеме, получили смертность в 10 раз больше на 1 млн. человек, чем те страны, в которых вакцинация низкая... Парадокс, который требует своего расследования - получается , что вакцинирование увеличивает смертность людей... Задумайтесь над этим !




    Heiko Schoening. As part of the work of the Extra-Parliamentary Investigative Commission on Coronavirus, on October 10, 2020, a regular meeting of a group of doctors and scientists of the World Alliance of Physicians was held. The representatives of Germany, the Netherlands, Ireland, Britain and Sweden took the floor at the meeting. Scientists urge their colleagues around the world to come to their senses and oppose the savage, misanthropic, so-called, "measures to combat the pandemic" leading humanity into a new slavery.

    Heiko Schoening at the conference in St. Petersburg - at the beginning of his report said that THIS is the mafia, THIS is organized crime and we must fight it decisively.

    Novatek Seeks FDA Emergency Use Authorization after its Oral TQ Formula Significantly Improved Total Symptom Burden in Phase 2 Study of COVID-19 Outpatients


    Novatek Seeks FDA Emergency Use Authorization after its Oral TQ Formula Significantly Improved Total Symptom Burden in Phase 2 Study of COVID-19 Outpatients
    Novatek Pharmaceuticals announced topline results from the BOSS-Covid-19 study evaluating the efficacy and safety of oral TQ Formula in COVID-19 patients
    trialsitenews.com


    Novatek Pharmaceuticals announced topline results from the BOSS-Covid-19 study evaluating the efficacy and safety of oral TQ Formula in COVID-19 patients in the outpatient setting. Among other outcomes, oral TQ Formula led to a significantly faster decline in total symptom burden from Day 1 through Day 14, relative to placebo. TQ Formula is a patent-protected oral drug, which represents a fully characterized, enteric-coated formulation of the flowering plant Nigella Sativa, with a specific tight range of thymoquinone (TQ) concentration. Based on the outcome of the BOSS-Covid-19 Study, the FDA has granted Novatek a Type B meeting to consider Emergency Use Authorization (EUA) of oral TQ Formula to treat non-hospitalized COVID-19 patients.


    BOSS-Covid-19 was a phase 2 randomized (1:1), double-blind, placebo-controlled study to assess safety and efficacy of the oral drug, TQ Formula capsules versus placebo in treating patients who have tested positive for novel Coronavirus 2019 (COVID-19) in the outpatient setting. Patients were treated at a dose of 500 mg, 3 capsules, two times a day for 14 days from date of randomization. Quantitative viral load as measured by RT-PCR was evaluated at baseline, and on days 7 and 14. Covid-19 symptoms were measured throughout the study (Day 1 through Day 21) using Modified FLU-PRO Plus.


    The study demonstrated that oral TQ Formula led to significantly faster decline in total symptom burden, defined as duration and severity of symptoms over time from Day 1 through Day 14, relative to placebo. Additionally, patients treated with TQ Formula showed significant increase from Baseline to Day-14 in cytotoxic CD8-positive T lymphocytes and helper CD4-positive T lymphocytes and a trend of faster decline in viral load, as compared to patients treated with placebo. The significant increase in the central immune cells (CD8 and CD4 cells) suggests that oral TQ Formula is supporting the recovery of the immune system against COVID-19 infection. Oral TQ Formula was very well tolerated with no serious adverse events.


    About TQ Formula

    Novatek Pharmaceuticals Black seed oil is a natural product with therapeutic potential in management of SARS-CoV-2 due to its anti-viral activity. Derived from Nigella Sativa plant, it has been extensively studied and shown to possess a wide spectrum of activities which include antibacterial, antifungal, and antiviral effects among many others. Most of the therapeutic properties are due to thymoquinone, a major bioactive constituent of N. sativa seeds.


    Thymoquinone may block the SARS-CoV-2 entry via ACE2 in pneumocytes.


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