Models are not real but …. one logistic model is predicting that Italy's active case number will peak about April 5 at about 89,000 active cases.
Covid-19 News
- Alan Smith
- Closed
-
-
We can be sure the epidemiologists in Japan and Korea are telling the truth.
I am sure of this.... but the epidemiologists in the Xi era are very different
If it quacks like a duck etcc..
I don't beiieve the dragon's data..even though Bruce Aylward may..
https://www.bloomberg.com/news…ts-after-video-goes-viral
The dragon is no duck...ask the Taiwanese
The truth will out... death by death
-
Wyttenbach - any reason why Echinacea is counterindicated?
-
Echinacea?? not much evidence either way for Covid
There is this
https://selfhacked.com/blog/ca…a-help-fight-coronavirus/
Can Echinacea Worsen “Cytokine Storms”?
Once coronaviruses enter the body, they force the immune system to mass-produce inflammatory molecules. Cytokines lose control and start damaging tissues, setting off a “cytokine storm” — the turning point that makes infection serious [20, 15].
Too much interferon (type I IFN) causes lung complications in people with coronaviruses similar to the 2019 strain (SARS-CoV and MERS-CoV)[15].
Thus, interferon-boosters like echinacea might do more harm than good in people who are already infected with the virus [20]
reference
-
Thus, interferon-boosters like echinacea might do more harm than good in people who are already infected with the virus
elderberry might be one of those things also.
-
just some interesting thoughts on the numbers today so far:
1. The U.S. has about the same number of new cases as yesterday but about 1/2 the number of deaths. This is interesting because deaths to cases has been fairly consistent. So why the drop? Just a one day anomaly or something else?
2. It is still interesting how the U.S. has many more new cases every day than Italy and Spain. But the U.S. has a lot fewer deaths than either country.
My hope is that Doctors here in the U.S. are getting their arms around some kind of antiviral cocktail. Gilead announced expanded use of remdesivir in the last couple of days to severely ill Covid-19 patients. And Hydroxycloraquine is definitely being used more widely. -
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Echinacea
Echinacea hasn't been proven to do much of anything medically. Except maybe drug interactions...
-
Emergency FDA authorization immediately for hydroxychloroquine against COVID-19. Yay! "benefits may outweigh the risks..."
https://www.politico.com/news/…-anti-malaria-drug-155095
A couple of thoughts... getting enough out will be difficult. Hundreds of millions of doses will be needed.
At least, adding azithromycin to it will be easy. It isn't the first choice for this but it does help prevent bacterial pneumonia and broncho-pneumonia which often threatens viral pneumonia patients. I hope the definitive tests now underway are complete soon.
-
I don't beiieve the dragon's data..even though Bruce Aylward may..
I suggest you address my point. If this data is wrong, and China has not suppressed the outbreak, how could it be that the Chinese methods worked in Korea and Japan? Experiment A fails. Repications B and C work. How can that be? These experiments involved hundreds of thousands of patients in Korea alone. How can it be that techniques worked with hundreds of thousands of people in one country, but not another? This makes no sense.
-
It is still interesting how the U.S. has many more new cases every day than Italy and Spain. But the U.S. has a lot fewer deaths than either country.
That is because most of the U.S. infections were in the last week. The patients have not died yet, but they will. It takes two or three weeks. The U.S. death rate is increasing at the same rate as the daily cases were two or three weeks ago.
-
I am happy to report that Dr. Anthony Fauci is saying the same thing the Japanese epidemiologists have been saying. He says we must have testing, quarantine and tracing in place before ending the lockdown. I transcribed part of an interview with him on CNN:
"You can curb restrictions but you absolutely must have in place the capability of going [to the city you open], testing, and testing in an efficient manner. [Not with 5-day delays.] Testing, knowing in real time if a person is infected. And then getting [the person] out of circulation, and contract tracing. Because if you release the restrictions before you have a good eyeball on what's going on there, you are going to get in trouble."
He want on to say he is in favor of ending restrictions but only after testing, monitoring and tracing can be done.
I have said that I am not aware of any plans to implement a nationwide system on a scale that could track every case. I am sure such as system could be devised. If China can do it, we can. It may be that Fauci and others are working on this, but as far as I know, nothing about it has been reported in the New York Times.
-
The Worldmeter data just turned over. The graphs for each country have been updated. The results are encouraging! I think the trend is clear in Italy, and probably Spain as well, where there has been a steady decline from the peak for three days.
Things look better in several other countries. OF COURSE, these trends might reverse. Good news today is no guarantee that it will be good tomorrow.
Italy, I already posted.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/italy/
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/spain/
Germany leveled out for three days and then dropped. I don't know if this can be called a trend, but anyway, it is not doubling every 3 days! Four days of not increasing gives the hospitals 4 more days to prepare for the worst.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/germany/
Has France pulled back from the abyss?
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/france/The UK is down a little, for the second day.
Finally, the U.S. has dropped, slightly, from 19.452 (the peak so far) to 18,469. That is a great relief. There are still so few people infected in the U.S. as a percent of the population that I believe this is due to social distancing, not acquired immunity. The sophisticated modeling sites might shed light on this. The New York Times reports that experts think social distancing is working in the state of Washington.
Coronavirus Slowdown in Seattle Suggests Restrictions Are Working
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/0…us-transmission-rate.html
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/
-
I suggest you address my point.
I suggest that there is no morality to prevent the dragon from getting
the mortality rate correct.. since it knows it already
but using fudged underestimates of both infected and dead
just as there is no morality that prevents Bruce Aylward
saying the word 'Taiwan'in public.
-
I suggest that there is no morality to prevent the dragon from getting
the mortality rate correct
but using fudged underestimates of both infected and deadThat does not answer my point, which is scientific, not political. I am not discussing politics. I am asking how a public health measure that worked in two large countries did not work in a third. How is that possible? This is a public health measure based on the same methods used in 1666, only they are updated for the internet and computer era, so they work much better. (https://www.nytimes.com/2020/0…-plague-samuel-pepys.html)
If, as you say, the Chinese are lying and their methods failed, and they fudged the data, why did those same methods work in Japan? It is a simple question. I suggest you address it.
-
If, as you say, the Chinese are lying and their methods failed,
The dragon got the mortality rate right but reduced the infected and dead figures..
Their methods did not fail..
The figures for total cases ,81470 and deaths ,3304 could easily have been reduced by 2 ..or 4..
Another thing that I don't believe is that the first case was on Jan 10.. it was in November.
Chinometer?
-
the mortality rate right
I think I had the case fatality rate CFR in mind..
not mortality rate..
Case fatality rate=100 Deaths/Infected
Who knows which one is right..?
but I don't think the world's or China's are correct, or Thailand
I think S. Korea is about right at CFR= 1.6%
Taiwan has too few..
and that China has reduced both the denominator and the numerator
-
Now that the Hubei province is letting people in the streets again, the ugly truth about the real death toll is slowly becoming more tangible and the official figure seems to be off by at least 13 times.
-
As many as 10% of recovered coronavirus patients in China tested positive again after being discharged from the hospital, according to a report.
Doctors on the front lines of the outbreak in Wuhan, China — where the virus emerged — reported that between 3 and 10% of cured patients became reinfected with the illness, though it’s unclear whether they were contagious the second time, the South China Morning Post reported....
Wang added that surveillance of similar patients showed that 80 to 90% had no trace of the virus in their system one month after being discharged from the hospital, according to the report......
Meanwhile, other quarantine facilities in Wuhan have seen about 5 to 10% of their recovered patients test positive again. The findings were reported by the health news outlet Life Times, which is affiliated with state-run newspaper People’s Daily.
taken from
-
Strong evidence for simultaneous infection with Covid and other respiratory viruses in some patients.
-
I worry about India.
External Content www.youtube.comContent embedded from external sources will not be displayed without your consent.Through the activation of external content, you agree that personal data may be transferred to third party platforms. We have provided more information on this in our privacy policy.not exactly the recommended social distance
Coronavirus: Lockdown triggers desperate scramble as Indians walk hundreds of miles
Want to Advertise or Sponsor LENR Forum?
CLICK HERE to contact us.
CLICK HERE to contact us.