Covid-19 News

Quote from Wyttenbach

May be you missed the last few weeks news... Most infected now are age 10..45...

May be next time think first before posting FUD/nonsense...

W - i am very patient with you but maybe you'd prefer it if I blocked you and so did not reply.

I belive you are talking here (non-sequitur) about UK not Uttar Pradesh.

You are (yet again) ignoring the fact that those vaccinated will be the older population - and therefore those in hospital are skewed towards the younger population. Very few people double vaccinated (anyone over 40? in UK) end up in hospital - which is why we have low rates. Those who do are the few who have not got vaccinated (maybe due to anti-vax FUD on the internet).

The other factor here is that young people (specifically 15-24) mix unsafely a lot more and have a greater chance of catching COVID.

My daughter (24) is sensible and now double-jabbed. However one of her house-mates did not bother, and spent a lot of time in cafes. She caught COVID a week or 2 ago.

Let me reiterate:

trailsitenews is very highly biassed in favour of Ivermectin.

They publish articles that support that slant.

Their videos with questionable fringe people are not "scietiifc impartiality" because scientists do not publish results in videos. They publish papers which can be objectively analysed.. Videos is what advocacy groups publish.

If you get you science from videos just remember you are taking the views of the person making them - whether that is FDA or some crackpot - not the science. So taking down videos - if it is censorship - is not censorship of science.

No-one is taking down research papers unless they are egregiously wrong.

THH

Quote from THHuxleynew

Fm1 - probability of death is what all these things are about.

Can you give me any figures that support your view that alpha variant has a largr proportion of asymptomatic infections than original COVID - because if not the paper i quoted which works out risks based on mortality figures is the best you will get.

General point - everything in medicine is maybes. You look at a bunch of deaths and try to work out did a particular thing cause them. You end up with probablities.

Thomas you keep asking a question you know I can't answer. The original strain didn't have testing until late may of 2020.

Quote from Fm1

Thomas you keep asking a question you know I can't answer. The original strain didn't have testing until late may of 2020.

Well - the asymptomatic ratio for the original strain is pretty well tied down at around 45%. So the question is whether you have data which says what is the asymptomatic ratio of the alpha variant. It should exist. I just have not found it.

In absence of data a conservative assumption is that the relative estimates of lethality I posted are correct. Alpha will still be a bit more lethal even if there is a fair increase in asymptomatic fraction of it, and in an]bsence of information we should assume no change.

Quote from THHuxleynew

I can see the need for independent views on medical trails - to counteract big pharma pushing fake positive results for profitable drugs. That does not apply in the same way for COVID vaccines which are subject to very strong regulatory interest and also are not money-spinners. Maybe trialsitenews does this job OK?

Experimental vaccines have no regulation and cheating has been tolerated by FDA/CDC (bribes??)

Quote from THHuxleynew

He may be right, or wrong. He sure is not neutral or objective on this issue, it is his hobbyhorse!

Quote from THHuxleynew

But COVID IFR is still 0.7%ish (dependent on age profile - as also is Flu IFR). A lot higher than seasonal Flu.

The IFR of COV-19 is 0.1% in the real world - without Ivermectin...Else it would be almost 0.

Quote from THHuxleynew

So the 2nd op-ed writer for trialsite is a PhD published on COVID - but his paper is an outlier and has this obvious fault in its argument. It is pushing the (politically right-wing) hope that COVID is in fact no more serious than Flu and therefore should be treated the same way. That was, even at the time, an obviously poor judgment.

I would say all of them have way more background than THH...

Quote from Bob#2

3) Is this worse than the Pharma push for Remedisvir? Remember, WHO experts do not approve and FDA approves. ?

Quote from THHuxleynew

As I understand it they are saying that their Ivermectin stuff (on which they are clearly very biassed as i noted above) was taken down from Youtube. Probably becaise it did not fact check - you'd need to ask youtube?

Quote from THHuxleynew

So yes, it is worse. It is quite similar except less blatant. The remdesivir approval was on grounds it would save hospitals money and beds, not that it would necessarily save lives - though there was some hope.

This sounds like mental disorder. Gilead got 10 billion $$ from selling crap. No study did show that the crap (Remdesivir) saves hospital beds - this is a lie or a repost of Gilead marketing...

Quote from THHuxleynew

trailsitenews is very highly biassed in favour of Ivermectin.

They publish articles that support that slant.

People that can't see the reality usually end up in treatment or may be we have to live with a systematic liar and as I say since years. THH is an engaged FUD'er.

Quote from THHuxleynew

Well - the asymptomatic ratio for the original strain is pretty well tied down at around 45%. So the question is whether you have data which says what is the asymptomatic ratio of the alpha variant. It should exist. I just have not found it.

In absence of data a conservative assumptions is that the relative estimates of lethality I posted are correct. Alpha will still be a bit more lethal even if there is a fair increase in asymptomatic fraction of it, and in an]bsence of information we should assume no change.

Well - the asymptomatic ratio for the original strain is pretty well tied down :pretty well tied down really assumption

In absence of data a conservative assumption: yes your assumption

and in an]bsence of information we should assume no change. I never assume anything, you know when you assume..........

UK now has > 35'000 cases/day and 33 deaths. From two weeks back this means from 16'000 cases, CFR is about 0.2. But only - at most -1/4 of all infections get detected. So real CFR is 0.05 now.

The same happened last time with the UK virus. It had at least 3x less death/cases. In average 5x less. This is easy to extract. Takes some time (for that nobody will pay a spin doctor...). Go to worldometers.info select e.g. France and find out the delta (10..14 days in average) in cases/deaths from the graph then just so some integration an averaging.

So in reality Delta is now way below influenza that has a real CFR of 0.5 (Data from CDC) in a strong wave and 0.1 in a soft wave.

This is why Boris let's it run now. (But he can't tell this, else big pharma friends would grill him or kick him out of the club...)

India:: Uttar Pradesh is stable < 100 cases/day despite the large active young generation. In Switzerland 3/4 of all new CoV-19 cases now are from the age group 10..39. So same as Uttar Pradesh.

Why do we have so many Dr. Mengeles that enjoy looking at sick people with a pack ivermectin in the pocket for their relatives..?

What will they say in a future trial? I did not know? Why? Because my friends told me what will be in the news tomorrow?

Something real spin doctors won't like! From FLCCC page

https://www.bitchute.com/embed…oembed#?secret=keXNS6x5wR

Interview with Dr. Veron that now works in ICU since > 410 days for live saving of CoV-19 patients. He speaks 9 languages and was one inventor of the Math+ protocol.

Deep insight on censorship.

Quote from Fm1

Well - the asymptomatic ratio for the original strain is pretty well tied down :pretty well tied down really assumption

In absence of data a conservative assumption: yes your assumption

and in an]bsence of information we should assume no change. I never assume anything, you know when you assume..........

FM1 - that is not true. Your OP was saying clearly that you knew alpha was not more lethal, and i was wrong? At least that is what I thought.

In medicine nothing is certain. We must just go on what is most likely., and change mind when evidence changes.

Rather than the weird conspiracy stuff that is def not most likely.

Or the Ivermectin warriors who are making a big and unjustified assumption and turning that into near certainty.

i am happy for people to say - "maybe Ivermectin is worth testing because there are some indications it might help". that is different from "we know it helps".

Quote from Alan Smith

FWIW, these are the most interesting statistics- excess deaths from all causes. Sobering figures.

Same here: No excess mortality --> CoV-19 deaths would also die due to other reasons in average. We have 24 people in ICU with CoV-19 but this does not tell whether they would be out of ICU without Covid. 15% get the infection in the hospital...

Quote from Alan Smith

FWIW, these are the most interesting statistics- excess deaths from all causes. Sobering figures.

https://www.statista.com/stati…ths-in-england-and-wales/

They are interesting. I guess the excess deaths now are the delayed Flu excess deaths we did not get last winter because of lockdown. There are a lot of flu-like things going the round this Summer, possible because everyone has reduced immunity after a year of lockdown. And then we will be getting those delta COVID deaths, increasing rapidly but still only 20/day. Against that expected all-cause mortality is around 9000/week = 1200/day - so that uptick in all-cause can't be COVID (yet).

https://assets.publishing.serv…report_mortality__W27.pdf

Quote from THHuxleynew

Or the Ivermectin warriors who are making a big and unjustified assumption and turning that into near certainty.

Denying reality of Uttar Pradesh? Oh yes its far away- under developed but much more brilliant than THHuxleynew .

UK has 2000x more cases/day with 50% vaccinated...Hard to swallow being among the idiots. Even worse for the 1000 UK vaccine deaths and some 10'000 vaccine damaged.... Ask Eric Clapton for a comment.

https://www.sciencemediacentre…er-non-hospital-settings/

expert reaction to inclusion of Ivermectin in the principle trial.

I'd like some LENR Ivermectin fan reaction. You will probably criticise this trial - but let me ask - what dosage do you consider appropriate?

I guess - given the liking for trialsitenews (aka Kory) here - you would like his protocol:

0.2 - 0.4 mg/kg/day

Looking at the (pre-COVID) standard advice on taking Ivermectin:

https://www.medicalnewstoday.c…mectin-oral-tablet#dosage

20 microgram/kg body weight taken as one dose. Most will not need more.

It has caveats for those over 65 and children weighing less than 33kg.

So Kory's dose is 15X the standard dose, and repeated for 5 days or more. I realise Ivermectin appears well tolerated but I doubt we have large-scale testing for (say) 1 in 100 or 1 in 1000 side effects with a repeated dose of 15X recommended level for 5 days or more. For prophylaxis you would definitely want such safety assurance. Even for treatment, given a 1% CFR and lack of clear evidence of efficacy, you would want 1 in 1000 assurance of bad side effects. where do we have that?

So I can understand the way that regulators are not happy with people self-medicating Ivermectin without careful hospital monitoring, given that at high doses it can cause liver damage etc etc.

Here is the PRINCIPLE dosage:

https://www.principletrial.org…cardv1-0_15-03-2021pn.pdf

Looks like the same as Kory - but for 3 days not 5.

Now - are PRINCIPLE getting it right? Killing patients with too high a dose? using too low a dose and so not likley to see benefit? What?

It seems as good a choice as any given their participants are > 65 years and therefore more likely to have reduced liver ability to metabolise Ivermectin.

THH

Dear W, jox, RB:

I am going to block W because it is too distracting. I feel compelled to answer every repeated and unevidenced claim.

Re the bogus UP and UK comparison.have a look at the differences and try to work out overall what they mean. I can't - there are just too many variables:

• Much stronger lockdown in UP (UK was easing out of its lockdown as cases rose and recently is almost entirely not locked down. Certainly no-one is taking the few remaining restrictions seriously)
• UP is accused of fudging death toll in villages. Who knows? india is very political, the BJP are not exactly squeaky-clean when it comes to transparency
• UP has an aggressive test, track and trace system. Not as in UK where tracing is dismal and there is no real support for self-isolation (worse than in almost any other country) self-isolation. In UP we have house-to-house monitoring: https://www.sundayguardianlive…onse-covid-19-second-wave

That is the trouble with all these one-off examples used to support this or that COVID therapy of prophylatic without randomised controls. There as so many variables - the signal to noise is very low.

How do I block somone????

Ans before that:

We have 24 people in ICU with CoV-19 but this does not tell whether they would be out of ICU without Covid. 15% get the infection in the hospital...

UK used to have a high infection rate in hospital. And a large infection rate in hospital staff. Now however as most hospital staff (nearly all) are vaccinated, and most hospitals are not that full with COVID patients, things are likely much better.

COVID is such a dynamic situation you can get bad arguments from almost any figures unless careful about the time in which they apply, and the changes in COVID rates are systems between that and the time at which you are using them to make some point.

Quote from Wyttenbach

Denying reality of Uttar Pradesh?

Chamie analysis ...not understood by Ascolian statisticians,,

Uttar Pradesh gov published on April 17 2021:
"If you have symptoms of COVID, start your treatment without waiting for the test report, the government has released a list of 7 medicines"

Uttar Pradesh today's cases: 118, deaths: 6, positivity rate: 0.05%
Population: 230,000,000

Quote from RobertBryant

a list of 7 medicines"

Maybe these 7 meds ??.. Note the Vitamin D.. No.7

1. Tablet: Ivermectin 12 mg (one tablet per day with food once daily for three days)

2. Tablet: Azithromycin 500 MG (One tablet daily after meals, also for three days. Azithromycin 500MG

3. Tablet: Doxy 100 MG (One tablet twice a day after food for 10 days) Doxy 500MG

4. Tablet: Crocin 650 MG (For fever and body pain, take it 4 times a day. Eat 4 days) Crocin 650MG

5. Tablet: Limcy 500 mg (Ascorbic Acid 500 mg), one tablet daily after meals, for 10 days. (Limcee 500 MG Composition ASCORBIC ACID 500MG)

6. Tablet: Zinconia 50 mg (Elemental Zinc 50 mg) taken once daily after meals. Eat for 10 days. Zinconia 50MG:

7. Calcirol Sachet (Eat once a week. Continue eating for 6 weeks) Calcirol Sachet, Composition- Cholecalciferol 60000 IU