Covid-19 News
- Alan Smith
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Oh shit. Yikes. The new cases per day in Italy has shot up to the highest levels yet. New cases for the last 3 days:
March 12 2,651
March 13 2,547
March 14 3,497
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
This is dreadful news. Hospitals in Italy are already practicing triage. There are 1,518 critical cases.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/0…onavirus-health-care.html
Perhaps the steps taken last Sunday have had an effect, but it has not shown up in the daily increase in cases, because of latency in symptoms after infection. I wouldn't know, but I sure hope that is the situation.
I doubt anyone in Italy is now criticizing the P.M. for taking such extreme steps. I only hope they are sufficient. I wonder what more they can do?!?
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Oh shit. Yikes. The new cases per day in Italy has shot up to the highest levels yet. New cases for the last 3 days:
March 12 2,651
March 13 2,547
March 14 3,497
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
This is dreadful news. Hospitals in Italy are already practicing triage. There are 1,518 critical cases.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/0…onavirus-health-care.html
Perhaps the steps taken last Sunday have had an effect, but it has not shown up in the daily increase in cases, because of latency in symptoms after infection. I woudn't know, but I sure hope that is the situation.
I doubt anyone in Italy is now criticizing the P.M. for taking such extreme steps. I only they are sufficient. I wonder what more they can do?!?
It makes what the Chinese have done with reducing the cases as dramatically as they have look like an amazing accomplishment, almost miraculous.
Perhaps people staying in their homes in Italy are spreading the virus to other family members. But China somehow figured out how to keep that from happening. There are just so many questions right now. These are a couple for me:
1. Why is the death rate higher in Italy than other countries?
2. Can the U.S. and Europe do testing on a level near South Korea? This needs to happen, but Europe and the U.S. are much larger than Korea, so it will be testing on a massive scale.
3. As China opens back up and people go back into society will the virus come back or will it stay below 50 cases per day? To me this is the biggest question. If people go back to somewhat normal in China and the cases shoot right back up, that will pretty much forecast what will happen everywhere else as other countries go through the same process. I wish I were more optimistic that cases in China will stay negligible. But maybe this outbreak will behave that way. Sure hope so. Therapies and a vaccine are a year away at best. -
But as you have been saying, its too late now for effective quarantine measures to work.
I have not said that. As far as I know, that is not true at all. The epidemic was out of control in Wuhan and Hubei province. It was brought under control mainly by quarantine measures, implemented with modern big data and internet techniques. That's why they were more effective than they were before this century.
The whole city was quarantined. Doctors and equipment were rushed in from other provinces. A hospital was built in one week for critically ill patients. Less critically ill people, and people exposed to the disease were ordered into makeshift facilities such as converted stadiums. Healthy people were ordered to stay in their apartments. Food and medicine was distributed to the locked-in population. This brought the epidemic under control. Most of the makeshift facilities are now closed.
This is documented in the W.H.O. report and elsewhere.
The total number of deaths was 3,189. There are still 10 or 20 new cases per day, and several deaths. The new cases may rise as people go back to work, but they will be rigorously traced to the source, and people will be treated. No doubt there will be a substantial number of additional deaths before a vaccine can be distributed. On the other hand, the hospitals are not likely to be overwhelmed again. There will not be hundreds of thousands of deaths in China. Or Korea, or Japan.
If the trend continues in Italy, the U.S. and elsewhere, we will either take similar steps, OR instead of ~3,000 deaths, we will have hundreds of thousands of deaths. Italy has already had 1,400 deaths.
The per capita infection rate in Italy is 350 people per million. It is 56 per million in China. It could rise to ~400,000 per million in Italy, or the U.S., or any country that does not take drastic steps. In other words, it could get 1,100 times worse. All the medical science, all the doctors and hospitals in the world could not help Italy if that happens, and they sure as hell could not help the U.S., which has a much larger population. If that happens, we will be no better off than people were in 1918. The death rate will be about the same; 3.5%, with 40% of the population infected. (In Germany, experts say it may be 70% this time.)
The point is, you will be no better off than a person was in 1918 if the hospitals are swamped. Modern medicine and medical equipment such as masks, drugs, and ventilators do no good if there are not enough to go around. When there are not enough doctors, and the doctors and nurses are sick. You will be put in a tent with hundreds of other sick and dying people. Like this:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/…on,_Kansas_-_NCP_1603.jpg
This is not some kind of dystopian fantasy, or exaggeration. This is what is happening now, in Italy, despite their best efforts. This is what the numbers point to in the U.S., inexorably increasing by 1.3 times per day. Do the arithmetic! This is the natural history of all uncontrolled epidemics in all species. This is not what might happen. It is what must happen in nature, until enough of the animals acquire immunity, or the season changes (with some illnesses, but not this one), or the whole local population is wiped out. Only humans can reduce this trend, or flatten the curve. We have been doing that since ancient times, with quarantines, travel permits during epidemics, and so on. We are not doing that now in the U.S. They were late doing it in Italy.
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This is not some kind of dystopian fantasy, or exaggeration. This is what is happening now, in Italy, despite their best efforts. This is what the numbers point to in the U.S., inexorably increasing by 1.3 times per day. Do the arithmetic! This is the natural history of all uncontrolled epidemics in all species. This is not what might happen. It is what must happen in nature, until enough of the animals acquire immunity, or the season changes (with some illnesses, but not this one), or the whole local population is wiped out. Only humans can reduce this trend, or flatten the curve. We have been doing that since ancient times, with quarantines, travel permits during epidemics, and so on. We are not doing that now in the U.S. They were late doing it in Italy.
That is not exactly true. With COVID-19, even without a well functioning health system, 80% survive, probably 95%. So we are not in whole population wipeout territory. After the initial outbreak further infection (which will happen) is less likely to swamp heath systems.
These are not cheery figures, they are horrible. Equally they do not mean the end of civilisation, or the species.
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The per capita infection rate in Italy is 350 people per million. It is 56 per million in China. It could rise to ~400,000 per million in Italy, or the U.S., or any country that does not take drastic steps.
The UK medics are suggesting it could be 600,000 per million, if we follow their cunning plan to do as little as possible but let 'herd immunity' develop. Though that will not work for a mutable virus.
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Equally they do not mean the end of civilisation,
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It could mean the end of cricket for a few months in Australia..
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Well the UK is still not going into lock-down despite WHO recommendations for quarantine so we're going to have the same situation as in Italy in fourteen days time. So for a large number of people it is too late without some intervention using anti-viral therapy. Simple as that they're all going to die without it. You can discuss all this until doomsday model 'herd immunity' etc etc display as many graphs as you like and it will be the same in the US. Don't you think the Chinese started using chloroquine antiviral therapy as soon as the results were released on 2 February? Don't you think the whole world will be using it if they can access the treatment officially or not? This is about survival - if you want to survive every possible avenue in fighting the coronavirus will be used whether approved by government and medical professionals or not.
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The UK medics are suggesting it could be 600,000 per million, if we follow their cunning plan to do as little as possible but let 'herd immunity' develop. Though that will not work for a mutable virus.
often the cause of the "common cold" is a coronavirus. Can you get the common cold more than once? Does a herd immunity exist for the common cold?
it makes me wonder if it is worth the risk to rely on immunity and herd immunity for this coronavirus when we just don't know.
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a coronavirus.
This is true .. but MRSA golden staph is a staphyloccus that is deadly for vulnerable
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That is not exactly true. With COVID-19, even without a well functioning health system, 80% survive, probably 95%. So we are not in whole population wipeout territory.
I did not say that is possible. I said that an epidemic in nature ends when:
1. Some number of members recover and have natural immunity.
2. The season changes (but not with COVID-19).
3. OR when the local population dies out.
Obviously, #1 is the only natural outcome possible with COVID-19, since so many people survive. The same was true in most parts of the world with the 1918 Spanish flu. It never threatened to be as bad as the Black Plague, which did depopulate some districts. Although in 1918 there were a few isolated areas where people had such low immunity to influenza that the entire population was wiped out.
Black plague in 14th century Europe: 30 to 60% of the population killed. 80% in some locations.
1918 Spanish flu: ~2.5% (https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/12/1/05-0979_article).
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it makes me wonder if it is worth the risk to rely on immunity and herd immunity for this coronavirus when we just don't know.
I think the Chinese and Japanese researchers have confirmed that most patients who recover have acquired immunity. Some Chinese researchers think it might wear off years from now. I think by that time a vaccine will drive the species into extinction. I sure hope so.
Incidentally, the coronavirus mortality rate in China outside of Hubei province is 0.6%.
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On the BBC TV news they have just interviewed a Microbiology Professor who is part of a group of 200 scientists who are very critical of the 'laissez faire' approach of the UK government.
The British public does not seem to mind. They seem to be saying "keep calm and carry on." Only 24% are "very scared" or "somewhat scared." So, for once, they are even more stupid than the U.S. public.
https://www.statista.com/stati…ear-by-country-worldwide/
More proof that the British public wins the dumb-ass award in this contest. On March 1, 54% had done nothing to avoid the disease.
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The British public does not seem to mind. They seem to be saying "keep calm and carry on." Only 24% are "very scared" or "somewhat scared." So, for once, they are even more stupid than the U.S. public.
That was March 1st.
Now is March 13th.
Big difference in fear levels
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Well the UK is still not going into lock-down despite WHO recommendations for quarantine so we're going to have the same situation as in Italy in fourteen days time.
At which time you will lock down. Willy-nilly. If the government does not order it, people will do it for themselves. Nobody wants to end up in a hospital where they are triaging patients. Especially if you are old and they might count you out without treatment.
Don't you think the Chinese started using chloroquine antiviral therapy as soon as the results were released on 2 February?
I have no idea. They are pragmatic, so if it works, I suppose they are using it.
The UK NHS pays for chiropractic services because they have been statistically shown to work in many patients. The theory is crackpot, but the therapy works. That's the pragmatic approach.
if you want to survive every possible avenue in fighting the coronavirus will be used whether approved by government and medical professionals or not.
I do not think governments will object to chloroquine. They will have their hands full.
In China, the government even promotes the use of traditional Chinese medicine to treat coronavirus. That seems misguided to me. Allowing it is fine, but I wouldn't promote it. I doubt that any traditional medicine from any part of the world does much good. It wouldn't be "traditional" it it worked. It would be incorporated into modern medicine, like aspirin. It may help a little. If it helped a lot, everyone would know and we wouldn't call it "traditional."
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On the BBC TV news they have just interviewed a Microbiology Professor who is part of a group of 200 scientists who are very critical of the 'laissez faire' approach of the UK government. Doing nothing (or very little) has also been criticised by the WHO. Interesting to see how this potentially deadly experiment plays out.
That's how the hard BRexit works! (The majority will be overturned the fools again...)
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Here is an article by epidemiologists explaining what I have been trying to say:
The Exponential Power of Now
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/0…itigation-distancing.html
“We were listening to people, such as President Trump, saying, ‘What’s the fuss, it’s just like the flu,’ and ‘There are only 15 cases, and only one death in the U.S., much fewer than everywhere else, we’re doing great,’” Dr. Nick Jewell said. “But every epidemiologist knew what was coming inexorably toward us.” . . .
. . . we first need to convince people to take this outbreak seriously, which is no small task. It’s as if humans can only think linearly. But for epidemic modelers, exponential growth is the very nature of the beast.”
. . . Using the current case counts from the U.S. as of Friday morning, she calculated what the epidemic would look like if cases grew by 30 percent every day for a month — they have been growing by 30 to 40 percent every day for a week — then looked at what would happen if just one of those infections were prevented tomorrow instead of a week from now.. . .The magnitude of the outbreak creeps up on you; it doesn’t look like things are growing very much, and then suddenly they are. Today, the U.S. is up to at least 1,714 known cases and we’re only a couple of days on from when it was 1,004. It’s going to be 4,000 by Monday, and then it’s going to be 8,000 by next Wednesday, and then it’s…. Exponential growth is staggering when it takes over.
A lot of people seem to be asking: Is it really likely to get as bad in the United States and Canada as it is in Italy?
NJ Yes. Tell me one reason it shouldn’t. I see no reason. The United States are maybe two weeks behind Italy. I think everyone got a shock this week, and there was the sense of a shift, with the N.B.A. canceling and the president speaking from the Oval Office with the travel ban . . .
I think next week we are going to get an even bigger shock. Because we are going to have, as I said, 5,000 to 10,000 cases. People are going to realize it is everywhere. I can’t go to the store, I can’t take public transportation, I’m surrounded by infected people. We’re not far away from that. Unless we do something — and the sooner we do it the better.
See also:
https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo…ple-will-die-f4d3d9cd99ca
Here is an article about efficacy of quarantine and social distancing in the 1918 epidemic, when these efforts began after the epidemic took hold. They still worked. See the part beginning:
"Dr. Mecher and other researchers studied deaths during that pandemic a century ago, comparing the experiences of various cities, including what were then America’s third- and fourth-largest, Philadelphia and St Louis."
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the 'laissez faire' approach of the UK government.
Although Boris seems to have benefited from laissez faire democracy..
it would be good for him to reflect on the death of Pericles.
and the views of frontline workers in the NHS.
"scores of retired NHS doctors and nurses have told the Guardian that they are against returning to work to help tackle coronavirus,
with many saying it would threaten their physical and mental health. "
