Covid-19 News

Quote from JedRothwell

I think it is common sense during the worst and most dangerous pandemic in 100 years. It is no exaggeration to say that if we let this get out of hand, millions of people will die. Millions of people! Just as many proportionally as died in 1918.

JedRothwell : If fully understand your point as your environment most likely is highly vulnerable. But if 1'000'000 die then 950'000 of them are older than 65 and have preconditions. Most of the people with precondition did have a bad live style - so its their fault - just bad luck to live today. For the US things might be somewhat different as the country overall has a very bad live style and an outstanding and disgusting ignorance in respect to minorities and under educated low salary workers. May be US healthcare will safe the live of 1 vulnerable and prefer to let die 10 unlucky poor that just might need intravenous glucose because they are to exhausted to be able to eat and drink.

If you read the statistics of the second link its plane vanilla clear who dies (nobody aged below 18..) 96% over 65.

Swiss statistics overview of all states https://rsalzer.github.io/COVI…ex.html?lang=en#detail_VD

Best state statistics/graphics (French) site represents 4500 cases with all details. https://www.vd.ch/toutes-les-a…e-dans-le-canton-de-vaud/

Face Mask Studies.

https://www.livescience.com/ar…g-coronavirus-spread.html

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Quote from Shane D.

Anyone see any holes in my strategy? Keeping in mind I am not trying to get sick.

I think we could be in a better place 6-8 months from now. So I would rather for me or my family go through being infected then than now all things considered. Below are some quotes from an article regarding clinical trials of existing antiviral medications. There are dozens of them taking place. There are a lot of drugs sitting on the shelf that were developed for HIV, Ebola, SARS etc. COVID has certain different things in common with these viruses. Maybe we get lucky and some existing drugs show some benefit.

Personally I think having a safe, working vaccine in 18 months sounds ambitious. It wouldn’t shock me if it took 2-3 years. But we would feel better in the meantime if there is a drug regimen that can keep people off ventilators or being intubated. Maybe people would still get sick but the drugs would keep the severity of the illness down.

From an article on clinical trials of existing antivirals:

“I am actually quite optimistic we will have results at least – whether the results are good or not so good – from many clinical trials in the next few weeks,” said Sharon Lewin, director of the Peter Doherty Institute for Infection and Immunity.

“The timeline for antiviral drugs and knowing whether they work or not is much shorter than for vaccines,” Lewin told reporters in Melbourne on Monday.

“Because these studies are using existing drugs, so we know their safety, we know how to use them. We just don’t know if they lead to clinical benefit.”

Quote from Deleo

I am actually quite optimistic we will have results at least – whether the results are good or not so good – from many clinical trials in the next few weeks,” said Sharon Lewin, director of the Peter Doherty Institute for Infection and Immunity.

95% of the deaths are from the risk group, but studies are rarely made with such people and when for medication (cancer Alzheimer etc.) that pays off.

I would only do studies with people younger than 65 and no preconditions just to avoid we get a huge payload of new people with preconditions! Most people of the risk group cannot be treated anyway. If you study the data I linked above you can check the hospitalization classes and compare it with the deaths. The lower risk groups (18-65) share that needs intense care is 43% of the total, what tells that most old ones die quickly.

Quote from Wyttenbach

If you walk through Chicago or any major US city then you most likely will breath once a pest bacillus or one of Anthrax- It's the dose - initial load - what counts. The only pathogen that can kill you by a

single meeting is AIDS. At least for this virus it cannot be excluded.

If an infected person does heavily, splashy cough you can be sure that you will find virus also at 20, 200,2000 meters and more if there is a slight/ stronger air movement. Droplets sink slowly. That's the risk of live. But what is the chance you get it?

Such posts do have only one purpose: Intimidate the average unknowledgeable reader and make him obey.

By the way: Why did WHO tell that masks won't help?? Who believes these idiots?

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Marvelous rant, I am going to pirate it

and use it at my convenience, well done.

The good thing about Anthrax is.. there is a medicine..

And yes .. probably one bacterial spore isn't going to infect you..

This patient was exposed to many along the old cattle/buffalo trails.

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3901464/

Quote from Shane D.

Anyone see any holes in my strategy?

Like Swiss cheese but I tire of arguing about it so: good luck!

Wyttenbach

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If you walk through Chicago or any major US city then you most likely will breath once a pest bacillus or one of Anthrax- It's the dose - initial load - what counts. The only pathogen that can kill you by a

single meeting is AIDS. At least for this virus it cannot be excluded.

Nonsense. You are extremely unlikely to encounter bacillus pestis or anthrax bacteria outside of endemic zones. Microorganisms do not wander around willy nilly. Nor can single viral particles of HIV necessarily infect someone. However there are viruses for which one or a few viral particles in the wrong place can cause infection. I'd have to look up which ones. IIRC hepatitis B and possible measles and chickenpox are unusually easy to catch. The general principle of infectious power from basic theory, as I listed before is: the probability of getting infected depends on the virulence (infectivity) of the organism, the resistance of the host, and the dose of the organism (delivered by the necessary route). Those factors for COVID-19 are not well defined yet. It seems to be moderately to highly infective, there is little resistance at present in the world population but there is asymptomatic infection, and the larger the infective dose, the more probable there will be a poor prognosis. The latter is suggested by the number of health care workers who have a difficult or lethal course after infection.

Quote from Wyttenbach

JedRothwell: If fully understand your point as your environment most likely is highly vulnerable. But if 1'000'000 die then 950'000 of them are older than 65 and have preconditions.

That is incorrect. With 21st century medical technology, a large fraction of the dead will be elderly people. Young people benefit more from things like oxygen and antibiotics. Old patients benefit less. But, with the hospitals overwhelmed, there will be no oxygen or antibiotics. Today, 20% of young people have to be hospitalized. If there is no room in the hospital, roughly half of that 20% will die. That's the estimate I believe I saw.

You also have to take account of the fact that young people in the U.S. are the most unhealthy in the developed world, because many them are obese. Based on the Chinese data, the survival rate of obese people age 40 is in the same range as a healthy 60-year-old.

Quote from Shane D.

Yes, I have my doubts. I think many people do. Those numbers have been revised downword so many times my head is spinning. And that is not because of the "social distancing" being so successful, as it was factored in from the beginning.

Of course it is because social distancing was successful! Every model predicted that. The only question was: would U.S. state or the Federal government mandate social distancing, and would people do it? The answers turned out to be yes, and yes, and the results that followed (so far) were a sure thing.

You have no rational reason for doubts. Surely you know the natural exponential course of an epidemic. Without intervention, nothing can prevent a recurrence of the 1918 epidemic, and the mortality rate is about the same. Surely you realize that the numbers have not been revised downwards! That's absurd. The numbers were always predicated on models, and models always reflected some level of intervention. There were different models and different curves. No intervention would inevitably lead to millions of deaths. Full social distancing and other strong measures always led to tens of thousands or about 200,000 maximum. All of the models agreed on that. In mid-March, the governors of nearly every state decided to implement full social distancing. ~95% of the population has been ordered to stay home. People followed the rules, which surprised me a little. The result was inevitable. All of the models also show that if we stop the lock-down on May 1, by July we will soon be back to doubling the number of cases every 3 days. In a few weeks we will be as bad off as we were in the middle of March, headed off a cliff. Then we will either all go back home, or the streets will soon be filled with rotting corpses. It is exactly the same predicament we were in a few weeks ago. The outcome is the same. Biology has not changed. The natural increase, doubling every 3 days, is the same, and it has been in every country with uncontrolled growth.

The only way to avoid that is to implement massive testing and tracking. Fauci and all other experts agree there are only three ways out of this:

1. Lock down until a vaccine is deployed (a year or so).

2. Let millions of people die.

3. Testing and tracking, the way they are doing in Korea.

Trump yesterday told the state governors that testing and tracking is their problem, not his. He apparently has no plans to implement it. He wants state governments to be ready to do it in two weeks. That's impossible.

People who think this virus is no worse than a bad cold or seasonal influenza should read first person accounts of what it is like. Such as this:

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/0…coronavirus-recovery.html

We Need to Talk About What Coronavirus Recoveries Look Like

They’re a lot more complicated than most people realize.

Sami Aviles, an otherwise healthy 31-year-old in our support group, shared that on Day 21 of symptoms, while her breathing had not felt strained enough to require medical attention, she was still coughing up blood, and her fever was breaking only to come back days later “like clockwork.” Another member of our group, Charlie, 24, described his case as “relatively mild,” but said that more than 23 days into the illness, he’s still experiencing a fever, cough and shortness of breath. Sabrina Bleich, 26, is grappling with severe fatigue and “persistent breathing issues” that make it difficult to walk, a month after she first felt symptoms. Jag Singh, 55, is still dealing with a “persistent cough” four weeks after his initial symptoms.

It’s been almost four weeks since I first became sick, and three weeks since I was discharged from the hospital. While my fever and severe shortness of breath have disappeared, my road to recovery has been far from linear. My second week of illness brought worsened GI issues, loss of smell, and intense sinus pressure. In the time since, I’ve experienced fatigue, intense headaches, continued congestion, a sore throat, trouble focusing and short-term memory loss. . . .

Diplomatic question on timeliness of WHO advice.

'Thoughtful 'answer from Dr Bloomfield NZ. 14th April.

Timemark 31.12

The situation in Japan is better than I thought. The daily new cases are way down. It is great relief. I believe the numbers on these graphs are up to date:

https://covid19japan.com/

Based on the NHK news reports and what I heard from a friend in Osaka today, I think I misjudged the severity of the situation for two main reasons:

1. Governors and mayors have imposed more social distancing than I realized. They have no authority, but they did it anyway.
2. Many of the hot spots with 20 to 50 patients reported are hospitals and nursing homes. So the public health people know exactly where they are; what the source of infection is; and who the staff members may have infected outside the facility.

They are still in danger of an explosive growth of cases with no traceable cause, but it does look like the danger is abating.

My friend from Osaka thinks there are hidden cases, and some people she knows think they had the disease but did not go to the doctor. I doubt there are many because that would trigger more untraceable cases. She also says the restaurants are still open.

Quote from JedRothwell

They are still in danger of an explosive growth of cases

Not much danger from Taiwan... I wonder why Japan bans entry from Taiwan?

and not from Lebanon

Perhaps they are expecting Ghosn to come back?

Quote from Shane D.

Terrible. Here is another story about how overwhelmed one Los Angeles hospital was. Lack of beds, patients everywhere, "flu zones", "death toll", a photo of tents set up outside to handle the overflow, and first person accounts: "never felt so sick before, and thought I would die".

https://www.latimes.com/local/…eaths-20180119-story.html

Sly fox.

Florida pulmonologist has started using ivermectin --

Local Doctor Tries New Coronavirus Drug Treatment

https://www.nbcmiami.com/news/…s-drug-treatment/2219465/

Another just published video that indicates why a "multi-pronged" attack on Covid-19 may be necessary --

NEW RESEARCH: Coronavirus Has A Second Route For Attack!

Ratjer has done published research 3 papers ..

"Here is what he posted 2 hours ago about his real life use (yes anecdotal so far)

“I feel I need to share this with the public at large.

I have used Ivermectin now on multiple carefully selected patients with a 100% response rate within 48 hours.

Avoided intubation at all cost even if requiring 100% FiO2. All of them have improved.

The earliest patients in the series are now on 2LPM nasal cannula and afebrile. No side effects noted. In my opinion as a pulmonary specialist, this is amazingly effective and should be considered in carefully selected patients.

I’m trying desperately to get the word out, but as a community pulmonologist who does not work for an academic institution,

this has proven extremely difficult.

Additional patient in Cornell has now been treated with Ivermectin after I was able to convince their faculty to do so.

This patient’s status has also markedly improved after administration of therapy after failing to respond to hydroxychloroquine based regimen.“

“0.2 mg/kg PO single dose. Used it in rapidly deteriorating patients who failed hydroxychloroquine based regimen. N

ot used in patient who were already intubated “

https://www.tigerdroppings.com…ectin-for-covid/89509136/

NOTE: The published data for human toxicity is poor.. but 0.2 mg/kg as a single dose does not look very toxic to me..

Quote from RobertBryant

“0.2 mg/kg PO single dose. Used it in rapidly deteriorating patients who failed hydroxychloroquine based regimen. N

ot used in patient who were already intubated

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NOTE: The published data for human toxicity is poor.. but 0.2 mg/kg as a single dose does not look very toxic to me.

Maybe the data are not so poor.

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Ivermectin and its structural analogs have been given to tens of millions of people and hundreds of millions of animals, with remarkably few severe reactions... The serious clinical events observed in this Cameroonian group represent a tiny percentage of the total treated population.

that is from: https://link.springer.com/article/10.1186/1475-2883-2-S1-S5

In various publications in which invermectin is given IV or by nasogastric tube to humans for severe parasitic infections, the dose is 100 to 200 micrograms which is the dose used in the report cited by robert bryant

that is from: https://academic.oup.com/cid/article/41/1/e5/325904

So thanks for posting that interesting communication. I hope someone is doing the needed controlled studies. Some very severe side effects (coma for example and wild allergic reactions) have been reported but seem scarce. Compared to the likelihood of death in patients with COVID-19 requiring intubation and sedation, complications from ivermectin seem trivial. Again thanks for the cite.

ETA: human dosing info (0.2 mg in a single dose seems right) https://www.rxlist.com/stromectol-drug.htm#description That means for a 150 pound person, appx 70kg, the dose is 14 mg (15 mg would be 5 tablets. The tablets are 3 mg each and sold in blister packs of 20. Cost per pack is around $150. There may be supply chain problems. Veterinary versions have been used in desperate circumstances, I read while browsing.

This is some of the theoretical/in vitro basis for trying invermectin: https://www.sciencedirect.com/…cle/pii/S0166354220302011 (sorry if it was already posted)

This is not for the armchair quarterback physicians, but for anyone really treating this disease.

Key points:

- people are getting out of breath due to low oxygen, and suffering hypoxic collapse and organ failure to death

- this isn't like pneumonia, I can confirm having seen imaging on CT q/ bilateral findings ground glass opacities which is novel

- this disease seems to affect ability of Iron binding to heme [this is a new ideas, not validated]

- Hydroxychloroquine protects hemoglobin in malaria, and seems to affect the same here [this is a new idea, not validated]

- oxygen, not ventilator appears to be best direction here [there is some complexity there and a professional will have to seek out advice for all of this]

https://web.archive.org/web/20…d-its-secret-91182386efcb

A relevant comment to the video:

Thank you, doctor. I’m a recently retired PhD veteran of respiratory research out of pharma & biotech. I’m so relieved someone with credibility has finally called it correctly. I have friends in Italy I’ve known for decades through the medical/ research community. They’ve told me EXACTLY what you’ve found. Further, in some Italian case series, 97% died on ventilators. A similar case series given high oxygen CPAP often survived. Now imagine hundreds of elderly people, ill & having a positive covid19 PCR test, being put on transport ventilators attended by physicians inexperienced in ITU. I would not expect many to survive, but this is our “surge capacity” we’ve set up in UK.

I am not a physician - but we should have this type of information in the hands of people on the front lines who have to invent and theorize and test on the fly - without the luck of months of RCT.