Covid-19 News

Recent Covid-19 items --

Interesting preprints --

Are Losartan and Imatinib Effective Against SARS-CoV2 Pathogenesis?

a Pathophysiologic-Based in Silico Study

https://s3-eu-west-1.amazonaws…ed_in_Silico_Study_v1.pdf

Celebrex adjuvant therapy on COVID-19: An experimental study

https://www.medrxiv.org/conten…05.05.20077610v1.full.pdf

How robust are the results of one of the first positive trials exploring hydroxychloroquine for treatment of COVID-19?

https://www.medrxiv.org/conten…05.06.20093237v1.full.pdf

Hydroxychloroquine plus azithromycin: a potential interest in reducing in2 hospital morbidity due to COVID-19 pneumonia (HI-ZY-COVID)?

https://www.medrxiv.org/conten…05.05.20088757v1.full.pdf

A study on the relationship between BCG vaccination and Covid-19 prevalence: Do other confounders warrant investigation?

https://www.medrxiv.org/conten…05.06.20093138v1.full.pdf

Repurposed Drugs:

Revealing SARS-CoV-2 Functional Druggability Through Multi-Target Cadd Screening of Repurposable Drugs

https://www.preprints.org/manuscript/202005.0199/v1

Repurposing Therapeutics to Identify Novel Inhibitors Targeting 2'-O-Ribose Methyltransferase Nsp16 of SARS-CoV-2

https://s3-eu-west-1.amazonaws…sp16_of_SARS-CoV-2_v1.pdf

Other items:

Study Shows Common And Cheap Heartburn Drug Famotidine Improves Outcomes Of Hospitalized COVID-19 Patients

https://www.thailandmedical.ne…talized-covid-19-patients

Computational Screenings Show A Variety Of Natural Phytochemicals Could Have Efficacy Against SARS-CoV-2 Including EGCG From Green Tea

https://www.thailandmedical.ne…2-including-egcg-from-gre

Quote from JedRothwell

The U.S., Italy, the UK and other EU countries already test far more people per capita than they do in Korea or Japan. There is no "wholesale, across the board" testing in Korea or Japan. There never was. That was never the plan.

Granted, the U.S. would have to do much more testing than Japan to implement their methods. The population is three times larger, and the number of cases per day is 1000 times larger.

Quote from THHuxleynew

Are they really saying this? I guess it depends as always on how you define a case (is that only those going to hospital, or those testing positive but with no symptoms).

An "internal report" was leaked from the White House saying this. The administration denies that is their projection, and they say they have another projection, but they have not revealed it. The memo is linked to in this article:

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/0…ronavirus-death-toll.html

https://int.nyt.com/data/docum…optimized/full.pdf#page=1

As Trump Pushes to Reopen, Government Sees Virus Toll Nearly Doubling

An internal Trump administration model projects a near-doubling of daily coronavirus deaths by June 1 as the nation begins to reopen, as well as a rapid rise in daily infections.

WASHINGTON — As President Trump presses states to reopen their economies, his administration is privately projecting a steady rise in coronavirus infections and deaths over the next several weeks, reaching about 3,000 daily deaths on June 1 — nearly double the current level.

The projections, based on data collected by various agencies, including the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, and laid out in an internal document obtained Monday by The New York Times, forecast about 200,000 new cases each day by the end of May, up from about 30,000 cases now. There are currently about 1,750 deaths per day, the data shows.

Quote from THHuxleynew

It seems high and maybe difficult to manage?

To me it seems impossible to manage.

Quote from JedRothwell

lockdown is not stopping people from coming to the hospital for cardiovascular emergencies!

As usual you try to redirect from what was actually said. You try to turn the statement from the number of deaths caused by the virus as a issue totally of lockdowns causing the deaths. As I tried to clearly indicate, my discussion is about the deaths caused by the virus by both the virus directly and collateral deaths that issues surrounding it cause.

specifically I stated: "expert warns as thousands avoid seeking medical help over coronavirus fears"

I and others (as in article) think that the virus issues do prevent people from going to the hospital. It increases the fear of some. You do not see the same effect in Sweden where there are no tight lockdowns.. It is fear not police but it does stop some from going.

https://www.washingtonpost.com…0-68981f488eed_story.html

"Even those left almost speechless by crushing chest pain weren’t coming through the ER."

"Five weeks into a nationwide coronavirus lockdown, many doctors say the pandemic has produced a silent sub-epidemic of people who need care at hospitals but dare not come in. They include people with inflamed appendixes, infected gall bladders, bowel obstructions and, more ominously, chest pains and stroke symptoms, according to these physicians and early research."

"MUSC discharged everyone it could to make room for the expected coronavirus surge." ---- those are people that would normally receive more treatment for various conditions.

https://www.inquirer.com/healt…tack-stroke-20200421.html

It seems clear - at least to me- that the death numbers from the virus from all effects is greater than the number of deaths by those testing positive in a hospital and succumbing to the virus itself.

"

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/he…eak-CDC-report-finds.html

"Between March 11 and May 2, a total of 32,107 deaths were reported in New YorkResearchers found that 24,172 were 'excess', three times the typical number of 7,935 usually reported during this timeThe excess deaths included about 14,000 confirmed COVID-19 deaths and 5,048 probable COVID-19 deathsThe CDC says the high number of excess deaths may be linked to people with pre-existing conditions or those who waited to seek life-saving medical care"

Quote from Shane D.

It will be a tentative process at first no, but as the people realize that going to a restaurant, shopping, or getting a haircut, is not the death sentence the liberal media has scared them into thinking, they will quickly overcome their fears and join the rest of the herd.

I do not think the liberal media is saying this. The Trump administration says this, in the internal memo leaked to the New York Times. The liberal media is not saying this Japan or the UK. Government media (NHK National TV) and the BBC are saying this. NHK is far from "liberal." It is, literally, government-run media. If people quickly overcome their fears then nothing will prevent a return to the rate of doubling every 3 or 4 days. That was the rate in Italy, France and New York City even after most people put on masks and began social distancing far more rigorously than in the U.S. That rate is catastrophic. That rate along with the mortality rate without hospital care (3.5%) would make this epidemic worse than the 1918 pandemic.

Quote from Shane D.

Overall, I do believe there are enough measures in place, and changes in habits, to make reopening safe.

The Trump administration disagrees with you. As I said, they predict the hospitals will be overwhelmed in a month. They say 3,000 people will die per day, and their curve shows 30,000 per day will die a month after that. As it happens, their prediction so far this month is wrong. It is much lower than that. However, all of the reduction in projected rates are in New York, Massachusetts and other states that are still locked down, and that are planning to implement case tracking. NO such measures are in place in Georgia. None! There are personal changes in habits that will have a marginal effect, such as wearing masks, but no government actions, monitoring, case checking, quarantine. Without these things, there is no way to stop the pandemic. That is why the U.S. has a 1,000 times more cases per day than Japan or Korea, even though we had a lockdown and they did not, and even though we are testing far more people per capita. A lockdown only buys time. If you don't use that time to implement effective measures, you gain nothing.

Regarding Sweden.

We in the end expect a death toll of about 0.05-0.1% for corona in Sweden assuming better treatment and protection of the risk groups, a huge bunch of those are very weak old people that will probably not contribute to an excess in death this year because they would pass away other wise in x months time. So the statistic seam to be far away from the horrid 1%. The american figures from the state agency brought up here looks similar in magnitude. This is probably what Sweden will go through, we are 1/2 through yet of this pandemic.

We do see the people avoiding the hospitals also in Sweden. so possible there will probably be an extra death toll because of people avoiding care for

chest pain etc even in Sweden. I have not seen any statistic about this though. Only that my ex-wife, a doctor, claims the ir is very calm.

Quote from oldguy

As usual you try to redirect from what was actually said. You try to turn the statement from the number of deaths caused by the virus as a issue totally of lockdowns causing the deaths.

You said that, not me. Perhaps I misunderstood. This is what you said:

"The lockdown certainly causes deaths due to deaths other than directly COVID19. There may also be long range effects due to appointment delays."

I do not see how the lockdown can have long range effects due to appointment delays.

Sweden is saving 10-30 dollars a day per person by having the kids at school.

Scientific American article on likely resurgence of Covid19 cases.

JedRothwell

This article focuses on modelling the course of a resurgence in Georgia.

Quote from Lou Pagnucco

Hydroxychloroquine plus azithromycin: a potential interest in reducing in2 hospital morbidity due to COVID-19 pneumonia (HI-ZY-COVID)?

The French doctors did complain about out of stock of HCQ: Weeks later Novartis shipped almost all (> 100 mio. doses...) of its HCQ stock to the USA... Where it certainly will not be used by regular patients.

The fish start to smell worse and worse...

Quote from Shane D.

I think the Trump team working the pandemic were as confused about those numbers leaked to the NYT's as I, and most others were.

There is nothing confusing about those numbers. Those are the same trends in place before the lockdown. With no changes and no government action, we are certain to return to those same numbers again. Masks and other changes will make little difference. Without a lockdown, only comprehensive monitory and case tracing can significantly reduce the rate.

Quote from Shane D.

They seemed as surprised as anyone when reading about it. I still am not sure what the whole story was/is, but yes, it appears some unnamed analyst in the department came up with those dire numbers.

They claimed they have different set of numbers, but they have not revealed these other numbers. If they have less dire predictions, they should publish them.

Quote from Shane D.

Obviously, this close to June 1 where the model starts, and with the death rate declining, it is clear that his numbers will be off by a large amount.

The death rate and the infection rate are only declining in New York and New Jersey. Everywhere else it is increasing. New York and New Jersey had so many cases a few weeks ago that the declines in those states brought down the entire national totals. When you graph the total cases and deaths without those two states, you see that the trend is up, not down. It is not as dire as the White House predictions, but those predictions were made before the lockdown ended in most states. Two weeks after the lockdown, it is likely there will be a rapid increase in Georgia and other states that have not implemented monitoring or case tracing. Whether the rate will return to doubling every 3 days or not remains to be seen, but it will increase. It has to. There is no way you can have the same rate now that young idiots wearing no masks are crowding in downtown Atlanta streets and trendy stores.

This is not what I say. It is the official White House policy, "Opening Up American Again."

https://www.whitehouse.gov/openingamerica/

The policy says that states considering relaxing stay-at-home policies are supposed to show a “downward trajectory” either in the number of new infections or positive tests as a percent of total tests over 14 days. Georgia has not met this condition, or any others spelled out in this policy. Most of the other states re-opening have also failed to meet the administration guidelines.

The administration is telling us that guidelines should be met, or the re-opening will fail. The guidelines have not been met. The administration is telling us that 3,000 people will soon be dying, and the hospitals will soon be overwhelmed. You, apparently, don't believe the Trump administration, and you ascribe their view to the "liberal media." I have a low regard for the administration, but their guidelines and their projections were written by experts, and they agree with what other governments have said, especially governments that succeeded in controlling the epidemic. So I think they are right in this instance. If it turns out they are wrong, you can thank the governors of New York, New Jersey and the other states that are actually doing something to stem the pandemic.

Quote from JedRothwell

The death rate and the infection rate are only declining in New York and New Jersey. Everywhere else it is increasing.

See this May 5 AP report

https://www.nytimes.com/aponli…ss/ap-virus-outbreak.html

US Infection Rate Rising Outside New York as States Open Up

Take the New York metropolitan area’s progress against the coronavirus out of the equation and the numbers show the rest of the U.S. is moving in the wrong direction, with the known infection rate rising even as states move to lift their lockdowns, an Associated Press analysis found Tuesday. . . .

“Make no mistakes: This virus is still circulating in our community, perhaps even more now than in previous weeks” said Linda Ochs, director of the Health Department in Shawnee County, Kansas. . . .

The densely packed New York metropolitan area, consisting of about 20 million people across a region that encompasses the city's northern suburbs, Long Island and northern New Jersey, has been the hardest-hit corner of the country, accounting for at least one-third of the nation's 70,000 deaths.

When the still locked-down area is included, new infections in the U.S. appear to be declining, according to the AP analysis. It found that the five-day rolling average for new cases has decreased from 9.3 per 100,000 people three weeks ago on April 13 to 8.6 on Monday.

But subtracting the New York area from the analysis changes the story. Without it, the rate of new cases in the U.S. increased over the same period from 6.2 per 100,000 people to 7.5. . . .

While the daily number of new deaths in the New York area has declined markedly in recent weeks, it has essentially plateaued in the rest of the U.S. Without greater New York, the rolling five-day average for new deaths per 500,000 people dropped slightly from 1.86 on April 20th to 1.82 on Monday.

U.S. testing for the virus has been expanded, and that has probably contributed to the increasing rate of confirmed infections. But it doesn't explain the entire increase, said Dr. Zuo-Feng Zhang, a public health researcher at the University of California at Los Angeles.

“This increase is not because of testing. It’s a real increase,” he said. . . .

Quote from Shane D.

In the US, 33% of COVID deaths are now attributable to nursing homes. In New York, the number is 25%: https://nypost.com/2020/04/21/…cy-proves-tragic-goodwin/ I do not know about Sweden, but here nursing homes are where we send our loved ones who are not long for this world. Sounds cruel, but that is a fact borne out by the stats. 53% of nursing home residents die within the first 6 months. Most are gone by month 13.

Similar figures in Sweden and I bet that a good part of the others belong to a group of people that was not following the rules. E.g. being 70 years old and not sheltering at home but dining in a restaurant.

it is a balancing act but unintended effects should be admitted and noted.

Indians Forced Into Quarantine Are Dying in Lockdown—but Not From Coronavirus

https://www.vice.com/en_us/art…nbut-not-from-coronavirus

"For Indians living on $1.90 a day, a forced lockdown is a death sentence."

"Elsewhere in India, farmers are taking their own lives because they can’t get laborers to harvest their crops"

". Migrant workers are dropping dead after being forced to walk hundreds of miles home. Alcoholics are dying from drinking methanol because all alcohol sales have been banned. Children are dying of starvation."
"deaths recorded due to starvation, exhaustion, police brutality, delayed medical help, or suicides due to loss of income or lack of food."

"Within hours of the lockdown coming into effect, there were already reports of thousands of migrant workers who were left without work, food or shelter because of the restrictions, dying of exhaustion or being hit by vehicles while walking hundreds of miles to get home."

It sure seems to me that it is wrong to say that lockdowns never cause deaths.

The problem is much more complex that some are willing to admit.

Quote from Shane D.

In the US, 33% of COVID deaths are now attributable to nursing homes.

So, only 54,000 people outside of nursing homes have died. In 6 weeks. That's comforting! A Vietnam war every 6 weeks. The daily death rate -- outside of nursing homes! -- is far higher than WWII (1,290 versus 445), and deaths everywhere but New York are increasing. But hey, what are we worried about?

Quote from Shane D.

In New York, the number is 25%:

So, 20,000 people outside of nursing homes in New York have died. The numbers are coming down, but hundreds a day -- outside of nursing homes -- are still dying. Is this supposed to be good news, or bad news?