Just for fun: Let's bet, what we can expect from Rossi in February... anyone interested ?

  • Hello once again.
    All the time the same rumors, QuarkX should ne presented in February.
    I woul like to know, TO WHOM it will be presented... and if the people are know, reliable and honest.


    Nevermind...


    I want to start a bet.


    Let's play with virtual money, we call it quarx.


    There are five things to place Your bets on:


    1) Rossi will invent any strange excuse, that the presentation will either be delayed or could not be held at all.


    2) Rossi will present a non functioning, useless piece of crap, looking for excuses, why it does not work.


    3) Rossi will present whatever to a secret whoever crew, and they will say, "it works".


    4) Rossi will present whatever to a secret whoever crew, and they will say, "it does not work".


    5) Rossi will present the stuff public enough, and, tadaaa, it works.


    @ Mods: Should we create a doodle for that, where everybody can place her/his bet ? By the way, whoever may like, can add more options.

  • Here are my odds:


    1) 65%
    2)4) 5%
    3) 20%
     
    5) 10%



    I think Rossi is likely to delay. If not, the device will most likely "work". Hard to tell how public it would be. I'm leaning on private.


    No one in the LENR-forum will be scientifically convinced however.

  • This whole thing will stand and fall with the credibility of the measurement personal and whether Rossi is involved in the experiment.


    Rossi should very carefully select someone, maybe someone he never saw and talked to before.


    At best an accounted employee of a state-approved technical control board, like german "TÜV" or something similar.


    Then Rossi should hand out the reactor to that person, show him the power switch and maybe how to use the controls and leave the room!


    Noone, really noone, should dictate that person how or where he has to measure or with which equipment he should do that. That person should be completely free in how he does that and which tools he use.


    If one of these points is missed we can assume that there is again room for several flaws.

  • DRM,


    Only thing I know for certain is there will be a dog and pony involved somewhere. :) Seriously, I should not be too critical, as twice...Ferrara/Lugano, Rossi allowed independent tests be performed. I am still scratching my head over his allowing those. Outright scammers just don't turn over their fake product to a bunch of scientists to test. Maybe he will surprise us again this time?


    An authentic, believable QuarkX test may be his only viable option out of the legal mess he is in. His "hail mary". Success would give him some negotiating room. My guess though, is that it will be somewhat a joke along with most everyone else. Maybe even a military guy involved. ;) He seems to think they...even fake ones, boosts his credibility. Appeal to the uniform I guess.

  • a mix of 1 and 3


    6) Rossi will leave the country so he has an excuse for not being in court for the IH trial and will say he is setting up a demo abroad and it will be so great that the mere 86M is insignificant. The demo will be delayed and delayed but secret people will be said to be witnesses be hind closed doors and that he has many sold to some military and big businesses and will be producing them soon in a great robot manufacturing line.


    I will spread my bet 10 quarx's on #1, 10 on #3 and 50 on #6 I am after a trifecta. ^^

  • I've always been willing to bet large amounts of money that Rossi will never prove his product really works, for example, by selling it at Home Depot or having it properly tested by say, Consumer's Union. But nobody ever takes me up on it. IH made one very large bet on Rossi and look where they are with it, something like three years later.

  • Quote

    IH made one very large bet on Rossi and look where they are with it, something like three years later.


    IH guys underestimated the fact, that they got license for selling of ECat technology, but not the real know-how for its replication. Now Industrial Heat guys can just see, that during tests A.Rossi developed a way better technology (Quark-X reactor) for their money - so that their licence did become obsolete before they could get some profit from it. From their perspective it's not difficult to guess, they don't want to pay for the know-how anymore.

  • IH guys underestimated the fact, that they got license for selling of ECat technology, but not the real know-how for its replication. Now Industrial Heat guys can just see, that during tests A.Rossi developed a way better technology (Quark-X reactor) for their money - so that their licence did become obsolete before they could get some profit from it. From their perspective it's not difficult to guess, they don't want to pay for the know-how anymore.



    Zephir,


    Sounds like a conspiracy. Those may make sense in Hollywood where the plot is fabricated, but in real life conspircies are very complicated and difficult to execute. As you are a scientist, how do you think Occams Razor would apply to your theory?

  • Quote: “IH made one very large bet on Rossi and look where they are with it, something like three years later. ”
    IH guys underestimated the fact, that they got license for selling of ECat technology, but not the real know-how for its replication. Now…


    The Quarkx is likely part of the licence agreement, see paragraph 13.4 of the agreement.

  • Quote

    Sounds like a conspiracy. Those may make sense in Hollywood where the plot is fabricated

    Did I talk about conspiracy? From where did you got such an impression? The conspiracy would apply at the case, when some party would want to affect the future public implementation of ECat independently of their private financial interests in a Sifferkol way, for example. But IMO the present situation is merely a consequence of how both parties follow their own future interests.


    Quote

    The Quarkx is likely part of the licence agreement, see paragraph 13.4 of the agreement

    I'm pretty sure, Rossi would want to present it as a new independent technology. It may be also the reason, why he attacked the IH with lawsuit once they delayed with payment just a bit. Such an interpretation would serve as another indicia of QuarkX technology factual relevance.

  • No problem. Actually I myself don't follow the discussions of IH vs. Rossi lawsuit very carefully, because all about it is very poorly sourced - so that my own speculations about it could be misleading as well. I just think, that ECat worked from its very early stages of development, being a technology "borrowed" from Piantelli via Focardi in fact. The claims of people like Krivit, who are saying at the same moment, that this technology doesn't work and that A.Rossi has stolen it from Piantelli are sorta schizophrenic from this perspective. From what I already know from accessible sources about research of Piantelli I'm much more opened to believe the later.

  • The demo is not tight to the 5 Sigma testing as Rossi has said. When asked where it does depend on he said: "When we are ready for it.", so there is something else whee it depends on. My gut feeling is that it is an endurance test of one year of one of the three being tested. Obviously that can go wrong and then the demo will probably be delayed. I think that this endurance test will last till the end of January, maybe earlier. Reaching that without failure will trigger the organization of the demonstration and will free the money for the industrialization phase. In the past he has said that would be a public event with press releases, media, etc. This requires some time to organize. From what Rossi says it does not sound as if he is already preparing for this, but I am sure he would not say this publicly anyway.
    My estimation:
    - 25% That the demo will take place in February.
    - 10% That it is a convincing demo. (Knowing how Rossi uses to deal with this until now).

  • An amazing discovery is made while doing Quark research that makes the Quark obsolete, leading to a new type of product that will require maybe at least a year of research and development before being revealed. Something Very Exciting. The Quark becomes so obsolete that a demo is pointless, and is postponed indefinitely.

  • I'm afraid you missed an exit option...
    I wish I'm wrong and the test will happen and be really independent and done by competent people and conclude positively.
    If so I'm sure Darden will give him 100Mn$ plus paiement for the attorneys fees, as he will own license to use this derived work. Woodford will beg to invest a billion in shares...


    However I no more believe in Santa Claus.

  • An amazing discovery is made while doing Quark research that makes the Quark obsolete, leading to a new type of product that will require maybe at least a year of research and development before being revealed. Something Very Exciting. The Quark becomes…


    I don't think so. The Quark is really the ultimate in heat production; there is not a whole lot of room left for improvement. While although not technically in "self sustain" during operation, it is alleged to be continually stimulated by a low powered "drive" that is a small fraction of the output. I can imagine a gazillion applications for such a device. For example, in my room, as we speak, I have a small 500 watt heater (I believe) providing warmth. A cluster of Quarks could provide the same quantity of heat but for perhaps fifty, twenty five, for ten watts of input. The Quark is powerful enough that there is no reason for Rossi to delay a demo to move onto something "better."

  • Lucy tees up the football. Charlie Brown begins yet another approach.......


    How many more times does Planet Rossi, and its fearless leader, think that, outside of a handful of geniuses and a vibrant sockpuppet population, that anyone will continue to fall for this tripe?


    Attempts to rewrite history via the storyline are not going to help him either - those facts are in and it is much uglier then anyone ever knew. This pattern goes back decades and will be very useful if this case gets to the jury. P.R. is now in a lot of trouble, is obsolete and has become useless with the exception of distraction, riotous tragi-comedie scripts and lawyer enrichment.


    Is that ice beside the tee placement?

  • Quote

    Now Industrial Heat guys can just see, that during tests A.Rossi developed a way better technology (Quark-X reactor) for their money - so that their licence did become obsolete before they could get some profit from it.


    They would be highly unlikely to say or think that given their public and extreme PR'd caution about interpreting results of LENR testing, and the fact that they have stated for sure that Rossi's previous positive tests on equipment test negative when done by them in-house.


    Quote

    I think that this endurance test will last till the end of January, maybe earlier. Reaching that without failure will trigger the organization of the demonstration and will free the money for the industrialization phase.


    Long endurance tests are Rossi's modus operandi. They delay the requirement to get stuff working for real, and keep fans hopeful. We have absolutely zero evidence (less even than with previous "products") that these Quark-X devices work. And their spec is even more unbelievable. I can't see anything in Rossi's statements here except more of the same, with less substance than before.


    As for what Rossi will do in Feb: he will not announce negative results. Otherwise since he rides the wave of "magnificent" PR it is very difficult to predict which of the many options will happen. I suspect Rossi himself will not know till he finds who he can get to agree to something that sounds like an endorsement.

  • I suspect Rossi spotted that LED lamps typically put out 10 times more light than a incandescent lamp for the same energy input. What idiots he thinks, they have cracked the worlds energy problem and don't realize it. Enter the QuarkX based around an off the shelf blue LED filament, hence the 32mm x 1mm size with sapphire substrate. The ingenious part is the capture of all that over unity energy missed by the stupid manufacturers by way of small photo-electric panels and overdriving the filament beyond spec where the near coherent light shows the magical speckles of interference. The by product of this inefficient electric conversion is of course heat. All in all another masterpiece from the great inventor and close friend of Galileo, Edison and maybe Davros !!!


    So come February I think we will get some photos of the prototype blue light reactor, but no external tests.

  • QuarkX should be presented in February.
    I bet all my "quarkx's" on "5) Rossi will present the stuff public enough, and, tadaaa, it works."


    What happens next ?
    I tell you. :)


    Rossi will be contacted by big names and, in a few months after the demo, that is in 2017, his first industrial products will be massively available on the market.
    You don't believe that ?

  • Nothing seems dumber to me than Rossi's claim to having manufactured his smallest and most radical device yet. Suppose he could make a Quark and he showed to someone like Elon Musk or Bill Gates. He'd be an instant billionaire. Rather, the quark "works" for Rossi like all the other Rossi claims, for example, the robotic factories, the cheaply made isotopes of nickel, the NATO colonel, the ever elusive customer and customers, etc. etc. etc. But the quark is dumber than everything before it. Why? Because Rossi is trying to extrapolate to absurdity the method used by Nigerian scammers to choose marks (victims) for their scams. This is all explained in this article: http://freethoughtblogs.com/si…id-and-yet-so-successful/



    I have no idea if this is a conscious effort on the part of Rossi or if it involves lunacy. But clearly, Rossi always chooses his marks with care, for example poor hapless Lewan and probably also Levi. So it makes sense he pitches only to people who are so inept at critical thinking and scientific evaluation that they will believe him. In my opinion, the Quark idea is too extreme to work on ANY investor, especially in light of Rossi's past and recent history, but then who would have thought he'd get away with all the other obviously idiotic claims he made and lies he told and still snare an organization like IH or Woodford? Or that Steorn's silly Orbo and constant beer parties and high salaries would have been financed by a group of very wealthy Irish farmers.

  • Stage #1 is underway, which I think is verifying to a high degree of certainty the Quark works and is reliable.


    Stage #2, I suspect, is the start of manufacturing thousands of Quark's on a regular basis for use in the first megawatt plants.


    Stage #3, I think, would be pushing the manufacturing up to the next level when a deal is made with a major multi-billion dollar company.

  • Mr SelfPromote - with Rossi's recent performance, no major investor or company will ever place another dime into anything Rossi produces. Petrodragon, CTS - thermoelectrics, 6 years of 1MW Ecat mirages, fake invoices, "tricks", "traps" and "failed test magnificence", incomplete, denigrated and deprecated license agreements, process and prototypes that don't work, etc......


    The sun is setting on youyour hero.