Jed, as far as masks, the experts you love to post and quote said in February that masks don't provide any protection from getting the virus only minamal protection for spreading the virus. Both the CDC and the Surgeon General agreed. Then the media turned that narrative upside down and politicians begin mask mandates both the CDC and the Surgeon General caved to media and political pressure. I wear a mask going shopping I did before it was even a subject but as far as protection I have little faith just don't want to run into a Karen!
The science on how much masks reduce airborne and surface contamination transmission has been very uncertain. There is a good chance that masks significantly reduce this - and yes they protect others much more than the mask wearer. Which means everyone should wear masks, not just those at high risk.
Then there are all the other factors - which have dominated the debate in the past:
- At the start most of the West has not enough masks and therefore it was policy to tell people not to wear masks so there would be PPE for medical workers. Even then we did not have enough PPE.
- Then the behavioural guys could not work out whether mask-wearing changes behaviour in good or bad ways. E.g. does it remind people not to touch face, and social distance, or does it make people over-confident.
I'm still not sure we know these things. But whichever way you go it matters. even a 10% difference in transmission is a big deal. Maybe as Stefan says other things are much more important, but everything helps.
There is a strong chance that mask wearing indoors, or with non-socially-distanced crowds out of doors reduces air/surface contamination a lot - and therefore is important.
My POV, you get the best scientific evidence you can and on that basis wear or don't wear - it matters even though it will not be certain.
Here is a decent regularly revised review of the evidence.
https://www.preprints.org/manuscript/202004.0203/v1
The science around the use of masks by the general public to impede COVID-19 transmission is advancing rapidly. Policymakers need guidance on how masks should be used by the general population to combat the COVID-19 pandemic. Here, we synthesize the relevant literature to inform multiple areas: 1) transmission characteristics of COVID-19, 2) filtering characteristics and efficacy of masks, 3) estimated population impacts of widespread community mask use, and 4) sociological considerations for policies concerning mask-wearing. A primary route of transmission of COVID-19 is likely via small respiratory droplets, and is known to be transmissible from presymptomatic and asymptomatic individuals. Reducing disease spread requires two things: first, limit contacts of infected individuals via physical distancing and contact tracing with appropriate quarantine, and second, reduce the transmission probability per contact by wearing masks in public, among other measures. The preponderance of evidence indicates that mask wearing reduces the transmissibility per contact by reducing transmission of infected droplets in both laboratory and clinical contexts. Public mask wearing is most effective at stopping spread of the virus when compliance is high. The decreased transmissibility could substantially reduce the death toll and economic impact while the cost of the intervention is low. Thus we recommend the adoption of public cloth mask wearing, as an effective form of source control, in conjunction with existing hygiene, distancing, and contact tracing strategies. We recommend that public officials and governments strongly encourage the use of widespread face masks in public, including the use of appropriate regulation.
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