Influenza is an important cause of mortality in temperate countries, but there is substantial controversy as to the total direct and indirect mortality burden imposed by influenza viruses. The authors have extracted multiple-cause death data from public-use data files for the United States from 1979 to 2001. The current research reevaluates attribution of deaths to influenza, by use of an annualized regression approach: comparing measures of excess deaths with measures of influenza virus prevalence by subtype over entire influenza seasons and attributing deaths to influenza by a regression model. This approach is more conservative in its assumptions than is earlier work, which used weekly regression models, or models based on fitting baselines, but it produces results consistent with these other methods, supporting the conclusion that influenza is an important cause of seasonal excess deaths. The regression model attributes an annual average of 41,400 (95% confidence interval: 27,100, 55,700) deaths to influenza over the period 1979–2001. The study also uses regional death data to investigate the effects of cold weather on annualized excess deaths.
https://academic.oup.com/aje/article/163/2/181/95820
= 116 deaths / day
The US is currently running at about 1000 COVID deaths/day. Flat, as with cases, but with signs of increasing, and no sign at the moment that it will reduce. This is not a winter-only virus, as is Flu.
So that makes a reasonable comparison with Flu, about 10X worse. The only proviso is that we assume that without lockdown there will be good enough track and trace to keep the disease in check, perhaps with local lockdowns as needed. unlike Flu we cannot count on immunity to limit deaths.
Those who believe that massive undetected infection and subsequent immunity will save this should be expecting the new infection level to reduce in those places where reported infections are highest.
THH