Covid-19 News

  • WHO clarifies details of early covid patients in Wuhan after errors in virus report


    https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/asia_pacific/covid-wuhan-outbreak-who/2021/07/15/51e7e8a6-e2c6-11eb-88c5-4fd6382c47cb_story.html?outputType=amp


    The World Health Organization said it will fix several “unintended errors” in a joint report with China on the origins of the coronavirus crisis and will look into other possible discrepancies.


    In response to questions from The Washington Post, the WHO is changing the virus sequence IDs associated with three of the 13 early patients listed in a chart in the report and will clarify that the first family cluster was not linked to the Huanan seafood market in Wuhan, a spokesman said.


    The WHO did not explain why a map in the annexes of the WHO-China joint report appears to show the first case on one side of the Yangtze River, while the Wuhan government had announced last year that the first patient, who fell ill Dec. 8, 2019, lived on the other side of the river, in Wuchang district.

    Tarik Jasarevic, a WHO spokesman, said in an email that the agency cannot comment on what the Wuhan government announced last year, but the question of where the first-known patient lived relative to the river was not relevant to competing hypotheses about the origin of the virus. The issue is not important, he wrote, because “the current first known patient is most probably not the first case.”


    From Wuhan to Paris to Milan, the search for ‘patient zero’


    Jasarevic said mistakes in the report were due to “editing errors,” but they did not affect “the data analysis process, nor the conclusions.”


    China’s National Health Commission and the Wuhan Center for Disease Control and Prevention did not respond to requests for comment.

    It is not yet clear whether or how clarity on these points could help researchers understand what happened in Wuhan. But the need to correct data months after publication, in the second year of the pandemic, may renew questions about the slow and complicated search for the origins of the coronavirus.


    “We need more explanation about what the source of the error and the information was,” said Lawrence Gostin, a professor of global health law at Georgetown University who also provides technical assistance to the WHO.


    “Who made the errors? Was it China, was it the team, was it WHO itself?” he asked. “There’s no clarity, and this does feed into public distrust of the integrity and rigor of the origins investigation.”

    The Post reported last week on inconsistencies in the profile of the earliest official patient, as outlined in the joint report. In response to queries from The Post, the WHO reviewed the cases and decided to update the document.


    The agency confirmed that the earliest official case, Patient S01, was a 41-year-old man, with virus genome sequences EPI_ISL_403930, MT019531, and GWHABKH00000001 in various databases. The report had listed a different sequence, belonging to a 61-year-old man, which Jasarevic called an editing error.

    Jasarevic said the WHO is still looking into why the official China National Genomics Data Center (NGDC) database says Patient S01 began to exhibit symptoms on Dec. 16, 2019, a week later than the Dec. 8 onset recorded in the WHO report.

    The lack of clarity on Patient S01 introduces the possibility that the earliest official case could have been someone different, with the WHO report mentioning a Huanan market seafood vendor and others who began exhibiting symptoms before Dec. 16.


    The WHO, however, also clarified that the first family cluster of infections in Wuhan had no exposure to the Huanan seafood market, although a woman in the group had been to other markets. The report previously gave conflicting information in different sections about the family’s links to the market.


    Jasarevic said sequence IDs will be corrected for two other patients in the report. S05 was a 61-year-old man who died, with genome sequence EPI_ISL_403928, and S11 was a 52-year-old woman with sequence EPI_ISL_403929, he said.

    All sequences will undergo thorough revision,” he said. “The numbers might have been updated during the continued process of submission and publishing.”


    Wuhan lab’s classified work complicates search for pandemic’s origins


    Jesse Bloom, a computational biologist at the Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center in Seattle, said the WHO should release more of the data behind the joint report’s conclusions to allow third-party scientists to review the results.


    “Certainly analysis of the earliest cases is a key aspect of the report,” he said. “Therefore, it would be helpful for as much as possible of the underlying data to be made publicly available.”


    Since the joint Chinese-international team met in Wuhan for a weeks-long mission, scientists and foreign governments have raised doubts about whether they had the time or access to do a thorough and impartial job.

    After the report was published, even the WHO’s director general, Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, expressed concern about China’s level of transparency and called for a more thorough investigation.


    At a news conference on Thursday, he addressed the issue of data sharing more directly.


    “Especially at the start of the pandemic, the raw data was not shared,” Tedros said. “Now we have designed the second phase of the study and we are asking, actually, China to be transparent, open, and cooperate especially on the information or data that we asked for in the early days of the pandemic.”


    Among the recommendations in the joint study was that scientists should review samples saved in blood banks in China and other countries to identify overlooked cases.

    For now, experts are hoping for more answers on the first report.


    David Fidler, senior fellow for global health and cybersecurity at the Council on Foreign Relations, said errors, typos and revisions are not unheard of when teams of experts pull together large amounts of data for reports. But the fact that the errors involve some of the earliest known cases, combined with the stakes of the origins search, means the report is worth a closer look.


    “It raises questions about what happened, how did this mistake get made on something of such critical importance?” he said.


    “Unfortunately, you get questions on top of questions on top of questions.”

  • Thomas, this is why I find it hard to take you seriously. You'll accept crap data and be optimistic and yet since the start of the pandemic real-world data in trials and studies point to ivermectin being effective in about 90% of the studies. I would think even with some questions in the data that it would lead any common sense thinking human, to be at least optimistic.

  • Amazing, especially for us in LENR, accused of fraud, and having overved fraud by MIT and incompetence by Caltech since long...

    Thanks Alain to gives us a link to J-mafia member that is a professional FUD'er... You just waste your time with the nonsense he talks.

    Here once more the best an earliest study with a great result among hospitalized CoV_19 patients: Efficacy and Safety of Ivermectin for Treatment and prophylaxis of COVID-19 Pandemic.pdf

    Group three is the Ivermectin group with 95 improvement.

    I hope people stop to post FUD here.


    when do you sleep?

    Fm1 THH is an avatar. As differential text analysis shows at least two different person use this avatar. Record avatar was "Eric Walker" that had at least 3 different authors behind working 24 hours/day...


    it actually is top of the list for antiCovid efficacy..

    May be you have to look who is payed for the list... Merck crap so far failed in all studies as the other top ones too...


    metaanalysis

    No it's still there... next table its for late treatment...


    What evidence do you have on the relative strength of natural and vaccine-induced T-cell immunity to COVID?

    We all assume you read the other posts. Then you have the answer. Lock above for re-infection ratio among vaccinated and infected. The bribing among newspapers, CDC, NHS is obvious since a long time. So NHS besides, basic population data is no reliable source of information. Same for CDC, FDA etc.

    Among individuals who had not had Covid-19 in the past and had received one dose of the Pfizer vaccine, antibody and T cell responses were at a similar or higher level compared to those who had previously been infected but not been vaccinated;

    This is pure company propaganda. One shot of Pfizer gives you Zero = 0 protection against Delta same for RSA virus. See Cell paper!

    For such fake studies Pfizer always selects some high antibody blood sample and pays some doctors to write the FUD.

  • Furthermore, he reported to me that any practicing physician in Canada who goes public with concerns about vaccine safety is subjected to a storm of derision from academic physicians and potential termination of employment (state-controlled socialized medicine) and loss of license to practice.

    Canada is ruled by militant Free masons since quite a while. Or lets say by Finance fascists.

    The report shows that 163 of the 257 people (63.4%)

    would be nice to see the age distribution. The first one I saw did not show a large difference. Even if the difference would be 14 years and hence a factor 4 would be needed for adjustment this would mean that vaccines work just 70% or as Israel says 64%.


    “It raises questions about what happened, how did this mistake get made on something of such critical importance?” he said.

    For a tiny bribe WHO will allow China to fix the order...

  • Thomas, this is why I find it hard to take you seriously. You'll accept crap data and be optimistic and yet since the start of the pandemic real-world data in trials and studies point to ivermectin being effective in about 90% of the studies. I would think even with some questions in the data that it would lead any common sense thinking human, to be at least optimistic.

    Hi FM1 - in what way is that crap data?


    You and i have a different view about studies.


    That data (because of its nature) is highly unlikley to ve biassed. It is also strong data - it is just that what exactly to conclude from it is uncertain.


    The Ivermectin studies (most of them) are likely to be biassed. And the meta-studies - which put them together - are also a bit problematic. The best positive one is Byant et al - and that is highly problematic.


    My main reason for being not very hopeful about IVM is that there is not good other evidence for its being an anti-viral. It would never have been investigated except for the PR campaign. It has very strong biassed support. Specifically groups that are politically biassed and that hold a consistent set of other views scientiifically orthogonal to Ivermectin but politically aligned (far right, anti-vax, anti-lockdown, minimising COVID severity).


    With such support (it is a shame) anyone wanting to make a scientific case for IVM has to be extra careful. Still, we have the PRINCIPLE trial which should give definitive results, so at the end of the data by October (or maybe earlier) it will not matter.

  • Fm1 THH is an avatar. As differential text analysis shows at least two different person use this avatar. Record avatar was "Eric Walker" that had at least 3 different authors behind working 24 hours/day...

    I'm not sure I agree, he seems to have taken quite an interest in my posts. Does that mean the mafia is worried about me? Now that really cracks me up. I really respect you whytts but jezzz........

  • My main reason for being not very hopeful about IVM is that there is not good other evidence for its being an anti-viral.

    I totally agree! Zikka is fruit and thus Ivermectin should be called anti fruit as it fights fruits. Westnil is a country so Ivermectin fights it too. So its a military grade weapon. Same for flu that simply is misspelled "flew" and thus Ivermectin fight birds that now no more fly...

    Why not say Ivermectin is a cereal? Welcome to Kindergarten  THHuxleynew it's your first day!

  • Once more from June 2020!! Ivermectin overview.pdf


    "Mechanism by which ivermectin responded against the CoV-19

    virus is not known and was believed to be working similarly as it acted on other viruses. It was

    known to inhibit the nuclear import of viral and host proteins. Integrase protein of viruses and the

    importin (IMP) α/β1 heterodimer was responsible for IN nuclear import which further increases the

    infection. As most of the RNA viruses are dependent upon IMPα/β1 during infection, Ivermectin

    acts on it and inhibits the import with the increase in antiviral response" [2,6].

    In Ref.7 the authors report, as [2] and [5], that the "antiviral potential of ivermectin against various

    viruses is mediated via the targeting of the following: importin α/β-mediated nuclear transport of

    HIV-1 integrase and NS5 polymerase; NS3 helicase; nuclear import of UL42; and nuclear

    localization signal-mediated nuclear import of Cap. As SARS-CoV-2 is an RNA virus, the antiviral

    activity of ivermectin may be mediated through the inhibition of importin α/β-mediated nuclear

    transport of viral proteins.



    First evidence in April 2020 :: Local Doctor Tries New Coronavirus Drug Treatment Ivermectin.pdf Press statement

    First retrospective study April 2020 :: Usefulness of Ivermectin in COVID-19 Illness.pdf


    Since then people like XXXXXXX

    • Official Post

    It has very strong biassed support. Specifically groups that are politically biassed and that hold a consistent set of other views scientiifically orthogonal to Ivermectin but politically aligned (far right, anti-vax, anti-lockdown, minimising COVID severity).

    Soooo...did the far right, anti-lockdown tribe cook up this Ivermectin scheme, or did it grow organically from the medical field based on emerging evidence that it was effective?


    I also note that 6 nations now widely use it to treat COVID (successfully they claim), so are we to assume they are far right by your reasoning?


    As to biases; can you honestly say you have none? IMO, just your quote I copied here shows you lack objectivity on this, and most COVID related topics. You tell us you "follow the science", but are you really practicing what you preach?

    • Official Post

    It is still possible IVM has use. I asked a while back whether you and all the IVM fans would accept the result of the PRINCIPLE at-home study. I will.

    It might cause a lot of head scratching, but I do not think a negative result will appreciably change things. It will be one of many studies...most of which showed some good. It will probably be argued it was the gold standard of the bunch,so should be weighted more, but that would have to be weighed against the positive real world results seen around the world by whole nations, and thousands of doctors.


    Personally, I wonder if you took some of the more popular, widely prescribed drugs in use today around the world, and test them for efficacy as rigorously as Iver has been in the past year....would they be able to stand up to the scrutiny as well? I doubt it, so IMO Iver will have staying power. Though not here in the west unfortunately, where it is under constant assault..

  • This is really worth watching, early treatment IS the only answer!


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  • Looking at delta


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  • This thread has had a lot of links posted from trialsitenews - which based on its editorial writers has a clear political bias, combined with a lack of independent medical expertise. the only qualified medic is heavily involved with a pro-Ivermectin advocacy group FLCC.


    It is only fair for those who wish to examine both sides to view a discussion of the Ivermectin issue from science-based medicine blog. This is a group dedicated to calling out what it sees as "quackery" or "bad science" in medicine. Now you may view this also as being politically biassed - I'd be interested in your arguments.


    Be under no doubt - blog support for Bryant et al is politically biassed. Their paper has the following blog references:

    Altmetric – Ivermectin for Prevention and Treatment of COVID-19 Infection

    The favourable blogs are:

    • Climate Science
    • Iowa Climate
    • Joanne Nova
    • Naked capitalism

    These are all right-wing blogs, the climate-science connection comes from Joanne Nova who is active in propagating an anti-AGW stance which is a far outlier and has support only from a few scientists outside the climate science field. If you read the papers and refutations (I have in some cases) the poor science of the extreme anti-AGW side (as supported by Joanne) is quite alarming.


    The one non-climate-science supporting blog is naked capitalism. There is an article written there by Susan Webber (pen-name Yves Smith) with similar arguments to those on this thread. Interesting though that she makes it clear her priority. She proposes we start from the idea that society should stay unlocked-down - and then look for scientific solutions that might make that practical. She is not a research scientist:


    Webber graduated from Harvard College and Harvard Business School. She had 20 years of experience in the financial services industry with Goldman Sachs, McKinsey & Co., and Sumitomo Bank.[3] She has written articles for the New York Times, Bloomberg, and the Roosevelt Institute.[4][5] In 2006, Webber started writing because,[6]

    Quote
    ...there was an obvious underreporting in the US of the severity and extent of the underpricing of risk in all credit instruments.

    Quote
    I would be happy to credit Weber with great expertise on economics. But not medicine where she shows naivetee and has no background - nor science. Anyway her support for Ivermectin here is honest. She would like a drug treatment that could keep the US open: and belives in a conspiracy to suppress Ivermectin: "These are the liberal gatekeepers I’m referring to, the media who push, shape or ignore certain stories, and the Silicon Valley giants who ban their discussion, all to serve the anti-Trumpian cause.". Quite why ivermectin should be singled out as a Trumpian cause I don't know, when other plausible out of license (and cheap) drugs like Metformin are similarly languishing but have no pop support.
    Quote

    Quote
    It really makes no sense to think that medics now (who do view FLCC as a non-science advocacy group) are politically motivated. It is true they are strongly biassed against quackery - promoting unproven treatments. Medicine has a very long history of this and it is still going on in the US with any number of un-evidenced at best and positively harmful at worst, money spinning health cures for everything under the sun being promoted. See previously posted link on Joseph Mercola. Such alt-medical sites are (as that nice balanced link shows) partly just good sense "there are things you should do other than taking drugs" and at worst dangerous offering false hope for money when people should be consulting medics. Mercola himself is highly political - convinced that medical experts vcannot be trusted, anti-vaccines, etc. The reaction against HCQ and now IVM is purely because what would normally be a scientific judgement call has been politicised by these fringe highly political and highly effective at mobilising opinion groups. The two drugs are different. HCQ looked on paper a good bet - but did not in the end work. IVM looks on paper a bad bet - with almost no motivation - and has been pushed up by an extraordinary number of positive very low-quality studies, and well-funded advocacy from groups suhc as FLCC and BIRD.
    Quote

    Quote
    Let me be clear - I hope it works. if it achieves good results in PRINCIPLE i will be the first to buy human-approved worming tablets and take them when I get COVID symptoms. I see current evidence as being negative in the sense that the best quality RCTs show no significant effect and there have been enough to rule out a very large effect - though not to rule out Ivermectin entirely. Against that - what reason have a got to think it works? The nation-specific arguments (e.g. Ivermectin caused the sudden drop in Indian cases) are transparently bust. The war of the meta-analyses suffers GIGO - you can very easily get positive results by having a loose filter on quality and allowing likley biassed studies into your analysis. See my next post for an analysis of that from science-based medicine.


    The following memes all cohere:

    • Distrust in mainstream science and experts
    • Strong belief in alternative medicine
    • Strong belief that COVID has been overblown and lockdowns are bad
    • Strong distrust of vaccines generally, and specifically as way out of COVID
    • Strong positive view about selected cheap repurposed drugs as a magic bullet for COVID (thus far HCQ and Ivermectin, less clearly Vit D, C and Zinc).

    I want to point out that the mainstream view of all those repurposed drugs is that they might be worth trying - they all have evidence - although I'm not sure Ivermectin had much before the in vitro anti-viral evidence (which is at much too high concentration) that was funded by the alt-med industry. Also, the mainstream view is that you try 10 of these possibles and if you are lucky you find one that works. That is the history of such attempts.


    THH

  • Sorry everyone - the last 5 quotes above were not meant to be quotes. And i missed the quote I thought i posted of Weber's excellent financial background.


    This site does not let me unquote stuff and put it right, so too bad.


    Here is a link better written than i could write (for the most part) making the strong case against Bryant et at and the FLCC / BIRD pro-Ivermectin advocacy groups. (Oh - BTW - Bryant et al are not independent - they are FLCC / BIRD).


    Why these groups are highly political, and propagate bad science


    Just for this thread, a small part of this that will particularly annoy most here:

    Tess Lawrie the conspiracy theorist


    The first observation I feel the need to make about Tess Lawrie’s interview is a simple one. She promotes herself as a “respectable” researcher whose work on ivermectin is being scorned due to the nefarious machinations of big pharma and the ideological blindness of other physicians, which leads me to a word of advice. The last thing a “respectable researcher” wants to do is to be featured by Joe Mercola or to be interviewed on a podcast like Speaking Naturally. Why? It’s the official podcast of the Alliance for Natural Health, a pro-quackery group that’s rabidly antivaccine. Let’s just say that ANH-USA is not just antivaccine, but promotes cancer quackery (such as Stanislaw Burzynski’s antineoplastons), among other pseudoscience. Particularly amusing to me has been the ANH-USA’s ranting against state medical boards that actually try to rein in quacks. Less amusing is ANH-USA’s activity promoting laws to make it easier for quacks to practice and advertise their quackery, as well as so-called “right-to-try” laws. Again, this is not the sort of group you want to appear with if you want any serious scientist or academic physician to take you and your work seriously. The ANH-USA is really just one step above Mike Adams or Alex Jones—maybe.


    There follows a very comprehensive and well referenced construction of the case for Tess Lawrie's conspiracy theory thinking, and how it coheres with Joe Mercola and other anti-science groups.


    --------------------------------------------


    And now to the serious technical stuff. Is the Bryant et al meta-study conclusion evidence for Ivermectin efficacy?


    Does Ivermectin Work for Covid-19?
    Why we still don’t really know if ivermectin has any benefit at all for Covid-19
    gidmk.medium.com


    Excerpts quoted below

    Does Ivermectin Work for Covid-19?

    Gideon Herd


    Note: because I know people will say silly things, I have never been paid by any pharmaceutical companies, hold no interests in drugs of any kind, and am funded entirely by the Australian state and federal governments, as well as a bit of money that I get from locking my stories on Medium for you all to read. I have no financial interests in any Covid-19 drugs, and honestly would love it if ivermectin cured the disease because then the pandemic would be over — I could go back to writing about whether chili peppers can stop heart attacks and that’d be much more fun.


    Depending on whether you listen to the World Health Organisation or sensationalist headlines, ivermectin is either an anti-parasitic drug that has no strong evidence for a benefit against Covid-19 or a world-changing solution to the entire pandemic we’re suffering through.

    It’s a fascinating dichotomy to watch — on one side, public health experts are mostly on the fence about whether there’s any use for ivermectin, on the other are passionately fierce adherents who set up entire advocacy websites for the explicit purpose of getting more people to take the drug. This makes any discussion about ivermectin wildly contentious, because many people are convinced that it reduces your risk of death from Covid-19 to almost nothing, which if true would make it almost as useful as vaccines when it comes to ending the pandemic.

    Sadly, the evidence doesn’t really support that idea, despite the recent furor on social media. It turns out that we really don’t know if ivermectin helps with Covid-19, because the evidence is mostly of such low quality that concluding anything at all is difficult.


    [skipping some interesting discussion]


    The second study [Bryant et al] is a reasonably good meta-analysis of ivermectin, conducted by a group of doctors that have been trying to get people to use the drug since mid last year. The authors basically used previous systematic reviews and other public archives to gather together estimates of the benefit of ivermectin on mortality and some other endpoints in all randomized controlled trials of the subject. They found that there was moderate-certainty evidence that ivermectin had a very large benefit to mortality, or in other words that it prevented people from dying from Covid-19.


    [skipping some interesting discussion]


    In particular, if we look at the Niaee 2020 and Elgazzar 2020 studies, the ratings seem a bit optimistic. Both of these are preprints, which is not disqualifying per se, but they are also quite scant on pertinent information and have some worrying inconsistencies. For example, Niaee is a randomized trial that recruited people who were PCR negative for Covid-19 as well as those who tested positive, but they somehow ended up with nearly 50% PCR negative in the control group and only 20% negative in the intervention. This is an issue for both the randomization and allocation concealment elements of the study, but both of these are rated as “low risk of bias”, which doesn’t seem to take this issue into account. The Elgazzar study simply has no information whatsoever on allocation concealment at all, and the two sentences on randomization procedures actually contradict each other, yet it is still rated as “low risk of bias” for both of these fields.

    Now, all of this is somewhat subjective, but I personally would rate both of those studies as at “high risk of bias”, because they simply do not have much info on what the researchers did, even if you look at the pre-registration paperwork. This does not mean that the studies are “bad”, simply that there is a high risk that some elements of bias crept in during the research, and that the results may not mean as much as we’d like.

    And more interesting still, if you exclude these two low-quality pieces of research from the analysis, the results entirely reverse. The primary analysis that the authors present found that ivermectin reduces the risk of death in treated patients by 62% (95% CI 27–81%), but if you exclude these two studies from the model and re-run it (I used the same Dersimonian-Laird model but ran it in Stata rather than Revman), you get some very different results.


    [some re-analysis with pics excluding Niaee and Elgazzar]


    Gideon Herd wrote the above blog before, independently, Jack Lawrence discovered that the Elgazzar paper was scientifically fraudulent! That does seem quite good evidence that Bryant et al were, as Herd argues, ignoring red flag problems in these two papers.


    Hope you can all read the whole link!

  • Curbina - by posting this are you ignoring my long and detailed explanation of why you cannot take that statistic as indicative of uselessness of the vaccine? I'm interested - please tick one of these boxes:

    (1) you understand what I said, but wish to ignore it because it does not fit in with what you want to say

    (2) you don't understand what I said (I can repeat it, at greater length, just for you). It is really not very complex

    (3) you understand what iIsaid, but think part of my math is wrong. However, you have never bothered to reply to me because you reckon no-one else will understand what I said (unlikely) or everyone else will see for themselves the subtle flaw that you see (also unlikely).


    You might also need my extended example when W showed he did not understand the statistics here (the playing card example is a counterexample for W's claim, as well as an example that demonstrates the point).


    Of course you don't need statistics. The enormously lower death/infection ratio in the UK shows how well the Pfizer vaccine is working against delta. How do we know infection rate? that gold standard repeat random sample ONS Survey...


    NB you need to work out the offset from infections to recorded deaths when working out the ratio from UK data - deaths start increasing from COVID a few weeks after infections (and cases) start increasing.


    Regards,

    THH

  • It might cause a lot of head scratching, but I do not think a negative result will appreciably change things. It will be one of many studies...most of which showed some good. It will probably be argued it was the gold standard of the bunch,so should be weighted more, but that would have to be weighed against the positive real world results seen around the world by whole nations, and thousands of doctors.


    Personally, I wonder if you took some of the more popular, widely prescribed drugs in use today around the world, and test them for efficacy as rigorously as Iver has been in the past year....would they be able to stand up to the scrutiny as well? I doubt it, so IMO Iver will have staying power. Though not here in the west unfortunately, where it is under constant assault..

    I think we all agree that Bryant et al is a decent attempt to do a comprehensive meta-study, even though from people in a non-science advocacy group arguing the pro-Ivermectin side of the case so not exactly objective.


    See above Gideon Herd's comment on it which shows that the evidence so far, processed and weighted as Bryant et al do it, but with a small correction to Bryant's subjective judgments on two papers which even you would probably agree was needed for reasons that will be clear when you read that link, shows no effect from Ivermectin.

  • Covid, kids the data and explained


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  • Covid, kids the data and explained


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    FM1 - let me just comment on that.


    Deaths from COVID ‘incredibly rare’ among children
    Studies find that overall risk of death or severe disease from COVID-19 is very low in kids.
    www.nature.com


    He gets right a lot of the things to remember:


    (1) that data is over a time window

    (2) IFR is what matters (not CFR)

    (3) deaths vary exponentially with age - children are much much less likely to die than adults, and in both cases it varies enormously with age.

    (4) how damaging delta is is not known yet (it could be about the same, or it could be a bit worse, maybe 2X, it could even be a bit better I think - I have not seen any definite data yet. Vaccination makes it much more difficult to collect such data).


    Then he gets some things wrong:

    (1) Would another year window have fewer deaths - because the children with comorbidities have all died? No. That assumes that all children have been infected over that window. In fact it is not likely that even 30% of children have been infected.

    (2) Are the relative risks of different races useful? No, probably not, because they represent different living conditions in which more people live/house and the overall rate of infection is higher. In adults once you adjust for that the risks end up about the same. (Sorry - no link - post if you want it and i'll look it out).


    These things about rate of infection matter because now with delta - even if its IFR is identical (we don't really know) it will spread much quicker and infect most of the population (at least it is doing that rapidly in the UK, and our governmnet is counting on it so we have herd immunity to reduce rates in winter when other more temperature-dependent viruses will strike). Once you know most of the population are infected anyway - differences in risk due to likelihood of catching COVID are no longer relevant. Everyone (or almost everyone) catches it.


    He leaves out the elephant in the room.


    As a parent - comparing risks - I would be thinking about the risk of medium - long term harm due to long COVID and comparing that with risk of medium to long-term side effects from vaccine. Even 12 months of reduced ability to live and stufy normally is massively important for young children, and some long COVID may last forever - we do not know but it seems likely. He just does not do this comparison which he should. Long COVID seems much less age dependent than death rate - I guess it may have a strong genetic component but who knows?


    His comment on long-haulers was wrong:

    (1) all the evidence is that long COVID is drastically reduced by the vaccine - it would be weird if not, because the vaccine drastically reduces disease severity (and in a good number of goes prevents it altogether). We cannot be sure of this - just like we cannot be sure of any of this stuff.

    (2) long COVID post-hoc cure using the vaccine is not really understood yet. It seems to be beneficial in some cases and we do not know why, or how many this applies to.

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