Covid-19 News

    Quote from https://trialsitenews.com/inserm-researchers-in-france-raise-an-uncomfortable-question-about-ade-covid-19-vaccines/

    INSERM Researchers in France Raise an Uncomfortable Question about ADE & COVID-19 Vaccines


    But from time to time, one who receives a vaccine can experience a sort of overreaction the next time they are exposed to the pathogen. Now, this is quite rare, but it has occurred and is known as antibody-dependent enhancement (ADE).


    In this case, the antibodies in this situation, those generated, do not help us anymore fight off a particular virus. Rather, they could possibly make the reaction worse. In fact, when ADE is occurring, an individual’s risk levels for more severe symptoms go up should they be exposed to the pathogen.

    IMO this is not just a theory but it did already happen. For example study Clinical characteristics of 152 fully vaccinated hospitalized COVID-19 patients in Israel

    shows that vaccinated patients had a higher rate of co-morbidities and immunosuppression compared with previously reported non-vaccinated hospitalized individuals with COVID-19. The graphic nicely shows that the few vaccinated among age <40 (very high for kids age 16..19) have more CoV-19 cases than the unvaccinated. This is what can be also expected from Pfizer's m-RNA crap: for elderly ineffective, for youngsters inducing immunodeficiency...

    Quote from JedRothwell

    Yes, that is also the Georgia and Florida route. It has killed over 600,000 so far, and it will kill tens of thousands more, plus it has ruined the lives of hundreds of thousands with long haul effects. Sweden has had the same result, per capita. 8,000 dead people in Sweden, 7,000 of them unnecessarily. That's a great route! Sort of the 1871 Great Chicago Fire urban renewal project.


    People can act freely, until they are put into a medically induced coma with a tube down their throats.

    Georgia and Florida, you are a drama queen, check which states lead in death per100,000


    U.S. COVID-19 death rate by state | Statista
    New Jersey is the state with the highest rate of COVID-19 deaths in the U.S., followed by New York and Massachusetts.
    www.statista.com


    The mandate mask states aren't fairing to well. The data is 3 days old!


    States without mask mandates look pretty good. Or maybe this is one of those right-wing sites?

    Some analysts have warned that the figures on vaccine effectiveness are prone to major inaccuracies because of a range of factors, including questions over whether there is accurate data on infection levels among the non-vaccinated, which is vital for such stats. And British data indicates the Israeli studies may be overstating the case.


    The Israeli data is interesting: but for effectiveness I'd prefer the UK data. It tends to be more accurate because the ONS survey gives us better longitudinal infection data than anyone else has. - and our Health system is fully integrated.


    Anyway - if effectiveness against serious infection is only 80% it is probably good enough to keep COVID, given high vaccination rates, what the anti-vaxers have always wanted it to be - something like a very serious Flu that we just ride out without anything special. More risk though becuase the particular way COVID attacks our immune systems even for quite mild cases seems to be unique and much worse than Flu in that it induces long COVID in a fair subset of people. So 80% would be a bit worrying simply because of the number of people of all ages ending up with serious long-term effects is reduced to only 1/5 what it would otherwise be.


    THH

    Quote from Fm1

    States without mask mandates look pretty good. Or maybe this is one of those right-wing sites?

    The US is a great source of comparative data with different states having different policies, but it needs a lot of analysis to make sense of it. In particular, COVID rates unless R < 1 will always end up peaking (till we have enough natural immunity) and then reducing. Where you happen to be on that cycle depends of lots of thing including how quickly delta got into the state, and how badly it was affected in previous waves.


    Then, the most significant affects on R (how quickly things peak) is demographics (how our people living) and vaccination rate.


    I am annoyed by anyone who posts State comparisons to try and prove things except in one thing. Given the same level of testing fewer people will die if we have higher vaccination rate. That trend is very clear, although you need also to consider missed cases, Florida for example now has a 12% case positivity rate - a bit high indicating likely missed cases in the case count.


    Because even simple comparisons are complicated you can get PR tables showing almost anything that may or may not be true. You can yourself dig deeper to see what is the real data but often there is missing or imperfect stuff (as with the Israeli data).


    Getting mask-specific data from all this is very difficult, partly because mask mandates correlate with a lot of other things that are known to affect death rate much more (e.g. voting intention).


    THH

    Quote from Zephir_AWT

    IMO this is not just a theory but it did already happen. For example study Clinical characteristics of 152 fully vaccinated hospitalized COVID-19 patients in Israel

    shows that vaccinated patients had a higher rate of co-morbidities and immunosuppression compared with previously reported non-vaccinated hospitalized individuals with COVID-19. The graphic nicely shows that the few vaccinated among age <40 (very high for kids age 16..19) have more CoV-19 cases than the unvaccinated. This is what can be also expected from Pfizer's m-RNA crap: for elderly ineffective, for youngsters inducing immunodeficiency...

    Zephir.


    is there something about anti-vax views that also prevents any distinction between correlation and causation?


    All those with immunodeficiency are at high risk and in touch with hospitals - they will be vaccinated. And the effect will be especially high for kids where many poeple will not want to vaccinate them unless they have comorbidities.


    With such a known immunodeficiency ==> vaccination relationship you cannot deduce any vaccination ===> immunodeficiency effect from the data unless you have longitudinal data that shows no immunodeficiency followed by vaccination followed by immunodeficiency.


    The same effect applies for anything else people think will make them at higher risk of COVID, but less definitely if it is a less serious comorbidity.


    I'd appreciate it if you replied to this specific point, which is very clear?


    THH

    Quote from JedRothwell

    You are citing imaginary problems. Childhood COVID is very serious, and very dangerous. Roughly as dangerous as polio. The long term effect may make it even more dangerous. Masks do not interfere with breathing. Depriving people of facial clues for a year or causes no harm.

    Did you once raise children or pigs?

    Quote from Zephir_AWT

    For example study

    The link was broken one more try https://www.clinicalmicrobiolo…-743X(21)00367-0/fulltext



    In Israel the CoV-19 growth rate (50..60% /week) still is unbroken. This reality proves how good vaccines protect... May be after 2 more boosters the political problems of Israel are solved too.


    Israel’s active COVID cases pass 50,000, just 2 months after they hovered at 200
    41 deaths in 24 hours; 531 serious cases; positive test rate highest since February; 500 at-risk kids age 5-11 vaccinated, with mild or no side effects; new…
    www.timesofisrael.com

    Israel’s active COVID cases pass 50,000, just 2 months after they hovered at 200

    36 deaths Sunday; 519 serious cases; positive test rate highest since February;

    And they do it all for their beloved j-mafia friends that had some 100bio. gain in stock value -- the true friends of Israel (- money..)


    .

    Spin spin spin,

    Russian Scientists Investigate the Immune Response to COVID Variants (Alpha, Beta, Gamma, Delta, Epsilon, Zeta, Eta, Theta, Iota, Kappa and Lambda)


    Russian Scientists Investigate the Immune Response to COVID Variants (Alpha, Beta, Gamma, Delta, Epsilon, Zeta, Eta, Theta, Iota, Kappa and Lambda) – SciTechDaily


    The continuing emergence of new SARS-CoV-2 mutations allows the virus to spread more effectively and evade antibodies. However, it is unclear whether new strains are capable of evading T-cell immunity— one of the body’s main lines of defense against COVID-19.


    The development of a T-cell immune response is largely governed by genetic factors, including variations in the genes of the major histocompatibility complex (also known as HLA). Each HLA gene variant has a corresponding molecule that identifies a specific set of peptides (protein) of a virus. There are a huge number of such gene variations, and each person has a unique set of them.


    The effectiveness of the development of T-cell immunity to COVID-19 strains varies from person to person. Depending on the set of HLA molecules, some people’s immune systems will identify and destroy a mutated virus with the same efficacy as they would the base form of the virus. In others, the response is less effective.


    The research was carried out by a group of scientists from HSE University’s Faculty of Biology and Biotechnology and the Institute of Bioorganic Chemistry of the Russian Academy of Sciences, including Stepan Nersisyan, Anton Zhiyanov, Maxim Shkurnikov, and Alexander Tonevitsky. They assessed the genetic features of the development of T-cell immunity to 11 main SARS-CoV-2 variants by analyzing the most common HLA gene variants. The researchers used their results to develop the T-cell COVID-19 Atlas portal (T-CoV, https://t-cov.hse.ru).


    The researchers used bioinformatics to assess the binding affinities of hundreds of HLA molecule variations and tens of thousands of virus peptides of the main SARS-CoV-2 variants (Alpha, Beta, Gamma, Delta, Epsilon, Zeta, Eta, Theta, Iota, Kappa and Lambda). The team identified the HLA alleles that displayed the most significantly changed set of identified virus peptides. According to the scientists, mutated variants may pose a higher risk to people with these alleles.


    ‘T-cell immunity works such that the variation in HLA molecules and T-cell receptors prevents viruses from evading the immune response. Our research did not find a single HLA genotype variant that is negatively affected by viral mutations in a significant way. This means that even in conditions of reduced antibody effectiveness, T-cell immunity continues to operate effectively,’ commented Aleksander Tonevitsky, Dean of the Faculty of Biology and Biotechnology at HSE University.

    T-cell immunity works such that the variation in HLA molecules and T-cell receptors prevents viruses from evading the immune response. Our research did not find a single HLA genotype variant that is negatively affected by viral mutations in a significant way. This means that even in conditions of reduced antibody effectiveness, T-cell immunity continues to operate effectively,’ commented Aleksander Tonevitsky, Dean of the Faculty of Biology and Biotechnology at HSE University.


    Reference: “T-CoV: a comprehensive portal of HLA-peptide interactions affected by SARS-CoV-2 mutations” by Stepan Nersisyan, Anton Zhiyanov, Maxim Shkurnikov and Alexander Tonevitsky, 16 August 2021, Nucleic Acids Research.

    DOI: 10.1093/nar/gkab701

    Watch video of CDC inept handling early covid cases and how they may have started a super spreader!



    CDC had contentious plan for flight filled with COVID-exposed cruise passengers


    CDC had contentious plan for flight filled with COVID-exposed cruise passengers
    After passengers on the Costa Luminosa cruise ship fell ill with COVID-19 in March 2020, Americans were flown to Atlanta after reaching Europe. Passengers say…
    www.cbsnews.com


    After passengers on the Costa Luminosa cruise ship fell ill with COVID-19 in March 2020, Americans were flown to Atlanta after reaching Europe. Passengers say what happened next was nothing short of a nightmare.

    Quote from Fm1

    Spin spin spin,

    FM1 - that is perhaps because you are not understanding me - or otherwise it is a very impolite comment.


    I was not, in that last post, spinning things. every word i say is factual and consistent with my posts here were i only try to draw conclusions from epidemic curves when I have a lot of into - and do it in a complex way.


    You could, if you are honourable, take that imputation back, or else provide evidence that i was doing otehr than consistently pointing out the complexity here (I have never poste d in a way that implies that calculation is simple).


    THH

    Ok Thomas, spin isn't the right word, how bout interlectural bullshit!

    The data on states mortality is black and white. States that locked down with the exception of California and mask mandates had higher deaths per 100,000. Florida has one of the highest rates of over 60 in the states and only a 50% vaccination rates, no mask mandates only one lockdown at the beginning, yet it sits in the middle of deaths per 100,000. Not very complex!!!

    Quote from Fm1

    Ok Thomas, spin isn't the right word, how bout interlectural bullshit!

    The data on states mortality is black and white. States that locked down with the exception of California and mask mandates had higher deaths per 100,000. Florida has one of the highest rates of over 60 in the states and only a 50% vaccination rates, no mask mandates only one lockdown at the beginning, yet it sits in the middle of deaths per 100,000. Not very complex!!!

    Let me add, some counties in Florida did issue mask mandates, they had higher deaths and hospilitations than the ones that had no mask mandate. Not complex at all!

    Tough times in vaccination land


    Israel’s active COVID cases pass 50,000, just 2 months after they hovered at 200

    41 deaths in 24 hours; 531 serious cases; positive test rate highest since February; 500 at-risk kids age 5-11 vaccinated, with mild or no side effects; new travel rules start


    Israel's active COVID cases pass 50,000, just 2 months after they hovered at 200 | The Times of Israel


    The number of serious COVID-19 cases in Israel fell slightly overnight amid hopes that the effect of the third vaccine booster given to older Israelis was beginning to be seen. Meanwhile, active cases in the country rose to over 50,000 after standing at around 200 just two months ago.


    Health Ministry data showed there were 531 patients in serious condition, a drop of 7 since midnight. Of the seriously ill, 94 were on ventilators. In total, there were 908 people hospitalized with COVID-19.

    The Health Ministry said the rate of serious cases was far higher among unvaccinated Israelis aged 60-plus, who constituted 151.5 people per 100,000 in serious condition on Monday; among the vaccinated the figure was 19.3, and among the partially vaccinated 40.9.


    There were 5,083 new infections recorded on Sunday with a further 2,618 cases diagnosed since midnight, taking the number of active cases in the country to 50,693.


    The ministry said that 85,503 people were tested on Sunday, with the positivity rate showing a further rise to 6.07 percent — the highest level since February.


    There were five fatalities overnight, raising the death toll to 6,673, meaning there were 41 deaths reported in the previous 24 hours.

    Amid rising cases, Israel last month became the first country in the world to begin administering booster shots to those 60 and over, and was a pioneer once again on Friday as it began giving third doses to people 50 and up.


    As of Monday morning, 964172 people in Israel had received the booster, while out of Israel’s population of some 9.3 million, over 5.8 million had received at least one vaccine dose, and more than 5.4 million had gotten two.


    Meanwhile, new travel restrictions came into effect at midnight listing only 10 countries from which vaccinated or recovered Israelis are able to return without having to quarantine fully and instead only isolate for 24 hours or until receipt of a negative test result.

    Those countries are: Austria, Australia, Hong Kong, Hungary, Taiwan, Moldova, New Zealand, China, Singapore and the Czech Republic. Most of those locations are not allowing tourists to enter.


    Amid the rising cases and concerns of a further spike in infection when children return to school, Dr. Sharon Alroy-Preis, head of public health services at the Health Ministry, said Monday that she believes the start of the academic year will not be delayed and will open on September 1 unless there is a full lockdown.

    “In my opinion, there will not be a situation where the economy is open and the school year does not begin,” Alroy-Preis told the Walla news site. “The school year will only not open as usual if we reach the point of needing a lockdown. We are doing everything we can to stop the infections and not reach this point.”


    Meanwhile, the Israel Hayom newspaper reported that around 500 children aged 5-11 have received a dose of the coronavirus vaccine in Israel over the past two weeks, with only mild side effects reported in some recipients and the rest showing no side effects at all.

    The Health Ministry told Israel’s health providers last month that they can administer coronavirus vaccines to children aged 5-11 who have serious background illnesses that could make them more vulnerable to COVID-19. Authorizations for individual children must be granted by the healthcare provider and then be validated by the ministry. The ministry’s policy is to minimize the number of authorizations and issue them only for those with the highest risk, it said.


    The reports came after the Health Ministry said Sunday that Israel will reimpose caps on gatherings that will restrict attendance at private and public events, as well as rules requiring social distancing in businesses that serve customers in person, including stores and shopping malls.


    The government is determined to avoid ordering what would be the country’s fourth lockdown since the coronavirus pandemic started, and is pushing vaccinations, along with some restrictions, as a way to confront a tide of infections expected before morbidity drops again.

    The big anti-vax Lie (error?)


    Well - for most people it is not a lie - just a misconception. It is embedded in 25% of posts here, for example

    Quote from Zephir_AWT

    IMO this is not just a theory but it did already happen. For example study Clinical characteristics of 152 fully vaccinated hospitalized COVID-19 patients in Israel

    shows that vaccinated patients had a higher rate of co-morbidities and immunosuppression compared with previously reported non-vaccinated hospitalized individuals with COVID-19. The graphic nicely shows that the few vaccinated among age <40 (very high for kids age 16..19) have more CoV-19 cases than the unvaccinated. This is what can be also expected from Pfizer's m-RNA crap: for elderly ineffective, for youngsters inducing immunodeficiency...

    Pretty well all posts looking at numbers of deaths or severe cases and comparing vaccinated and unvaccinated suffer this same problem.


    If you look at who gets vaccinated, you find that in every country those at higher risk of severe COVID or death are more likely to choose to be vaccinated.


    • Immunocompromised (all vaccinated - and early on) - I don't have any data for this except it is pretty obvious - they are always first in the queue - and they will receive very strong advice, and consider themselves at great risk
    • Age ranges: higher age consistently has higher vaccination rate as you can see from the graphs below.


    Why does this skew statistics? I will give an example based on age as a risk factor, but any other risk factor with work the same way as long as the people with this risk factor know they have it and therefore are more likely to get vaccinated. . This applies to immunocompromised people - who will be much, much more likely to get vaccinated than normal people. Similarly other co-morbidities.


    EXAMPLE


    Assumptions

    • Suppose (to take an extreme example) 100% of over-65s were vaccinated, and 0% of under-65. That would make all of those most at risk vaccinated, and none of the less atr risk, but still risky < 65s.
    • Suppose (to simplify) that age is the only factor giving COVID risk.
    • Suppose vaccination reduces all COVID risks by a factor of 8 (approximately correct).
    • Suppose (to make calcs simple) the population demographic is uniform in age over 0 - 85, with no-one over age 85 (just to make things simpler)
    • Suppose COVID risk follows exponential age dependence rho * 2^(a/6) where rho is a constant and a is the age in years. this is pretty close to correct.


    Q: Would you expect the vaccinated or unvaccinated populations to have higher risk of severe infection or death from delta COVID?


    A: the vaccinated. A factor of 8 risk reduction is the same as a 18 year risk reduction. So those vaccinated and age 83+ will have the same risk as unvaccinated 65+. Because the risk increases exponentially with age it is dominated by the eldest groups. In this case the 83+ cohort all have higher risk, even though vaccinated, than any of the unvaccinated. Overall population risk will be higher for vaccinated than unvaccinated


    Details

    The average risk for population in age range a1 - a0 is given by the integral over age and the interval of the risk function divided by the interval size

    Rho(a1,a0) = (ln 2)*6*rho*[2^(a1/6) - 2^(a0/6)]/(a1-a0)

    When a1 - a0 is large, e.g. > 20, we can ignore the smaller exponential to simplify this with only 10% error.

    Rho(a1,a0) ~ (ln 2)*6*rho*[2^(a1/6)]/(a1-a0)

    Let K = (ln 2)*6*rho (the constant bit)


    Exact calculations vac risk = Rho(79,65) ~ K * 2^11.2 / 20 = K * 117

    non-vac risk = Rho(65,0) ~ K * 2^10.8 / 65 = K * 27.4 = 27


    The vaccinated population has a 4X greater risk of serious disease or death than the unvaccinated population!




    Q. Does this mean I have a higher risk if vaccinated then my risk if unvaccinated?

    A. No. Every vaccinated person still has 10X lower personal risk than they would have if not vaccinated.



    THH


    Anti-vax big lie (errror) no 2


    This is really a straw man argument not helped by CDC/US big opposite lie/error (actually they were just for a long time not updating what they said to delta). CDC have now moved on to giving delta info, so they are now roughly on target.


    Proposition: The infection rate will go down if enough people are vaccinated.


    Not true (in practice).


    Assumptions (all reasonable guesses)

    It is difficult to get more than about 70% of whole population fully vaccinated, due to anti-vax stuff and understandable caution about vaxxing children. We include children because they can transmit delta juts like adults.

    R0 for COVID is 6.5

    Vaccination reduces R0 by a factor of 2 (vax -> unvax) and 4 (vax -> vax)


    Calculations

    Average R0 is 0.3 * (0.3*6.5 + 0.7*3.25) + 0.7 * (0.3*3.25 + 0.7 * 1.625) = 2.74


    The vaccination, at this level, gets population transmission down to what it would be with the original variant. We know that can't be stopped except by lockdown.


    Why is vaccination still good for epidemic progress?


    Although this does not stop exponential increase it reduced the rate of the increase and so gives a smoother curve with the peak spread out and less high than would be the case with higher effective R0. But the peak will still be high because the only thing that stops the exponential increase is when there is enough community immunity to bring R0 down the last bit to 1. That is less needed with vaccination, but still high.


    Note - the UK seems to be doing better than this, with R0 at around 1.1 because of vaccinating only 60% of population. Israel is doing not so well as Uk and maybe the same as this. So these assumptions are pessimistic. Maybe the UK 12 week gap between vaccinations helps, maybe other things are affecting R0.

    Quote from Zeus46

    :/

    ^^


    Yes Huxley, you need to dumb it down by several notches to get a foot in the door here. Maybe some big red text would help.


    Quote from Fm1

    Let me add, some counties in Florida did issue mask mandates, they had higher deaths and hospilitations than the ones that had no mask mandate. Not complex at all!


    Quote from Fm1

    interlectural bullshit!

    OK - it would be BS if it meant nothing. Since it means quite a bit it is not BS.


    And I do not (anywhere I hope) talk down to people who are not intellectual. Everyone posting anti-vax or anti-vax-lite links on this thread is implicitly saying they know better than the regulators/authorities etc. In that case, intellectual or no, you need to be able to do the risk calculations, understand the difference between correlation and causation, etc. I say stuff as simply as I can because I don't appreciate when people post stuff I can't understand. But if anything is going to be concluded from these links that is even roughly correct it needs enough complication to accurate - or the results are juts wrong.


    If there is any bit I post you do not understand I will happily look at it, add details or examples, or agree it is not right.


    That phrase is you looking down on intellectuals. That is just as despicable as if intellectuals looked down on non-intellectuals here. Stop it. If you find an example of me doing that please show me, i will apologise.

    What I have been saying all along is that governments and their institutions are too inept to ever be able to carry out the kind of Byzantine plots beloved of conspiracy theorists.

    They struggle to get the basics right, especially with their senior bosses and political masters changing so frequently, not to mention policy changes or U turns.


    Today we can see that the US governments 20 year venture to establish a democracy in Afghanistan cannot even survive a few days against a group of regressive insurgents.

    In fact I find it odd how the right side of the political spectrum state that they have no confidence in governments because they are inept and inefficient (which has a lot of truth to it). Yet many conspiracies about super complicated government plots seem to come from the right.


    However probably a pandemic is one of those situations where a centralised response is needed. Otherwise we get the sort of mess where different US states were bidding against each other for PPE equipment. So you need a CDC, maybe just try to create a better CDC?


    Here in the UK some of the centralised approaches have been more successful than others. The vaccine rollout seems to have been a success. But the contracts for PPE equipment and track and trace were a huge waste of money after the government decided to rush through unsuitable contracts to family, friends and party donors.

    Having vented my annoyance at links posted that go on making the same mistakes - which we can all see are mistakes and have been pointed out before - back to the issue of FM1's and W's NO up the nose thing.


    I was wrong to say NO would not do it. Although I still have not found any evidence it would do it as prophylactic (maybe somone else can) It seems possible enough that it would help say by reducing initial dose and therefore the frequency of severe COVID.


    It would be needed in advance of exposure because delta is so fast.


    It would be a good idea when exposed to high risk environemnts for short times.


    I don't know any such products yet licensed and for sale. NO is not nice stuff and I don't want to OD on it (or even just dose enough to get an NO high) so does anyone know of a product that can be obtained?


    Nitric Oxide Nasal Spray for COVID-19 to Be Distributed to India and Other Asia Markets
    Glenmark Pharmaceuticals has partnered with SaNOtize to manufacture, market, and distribute NONS to India, Singapore, Malaysia, Hong Kong, and more.
    www.biopharminternational.com


    The problem that is still in trials here:

    NONS for COVID-19 Treatment [COVID-19]


    Also i wonder whether there are safety issues using it regularly as prophylactic?


    Note this:

    Home Nitric Oxide Therapy for COVID-19
    www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov


    NO sounds a rather too effective drug to be using all the time?

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