Woman in Japan falls ill to Covid-19 for a second time after being released in January as recovered.
This has been observed in China too, but almost nobody wanted to believe it.
Woman in Japan falls ill to Covid-19 for a second time after being released in January as recovered.
This has been observed in China too, but almost nobody wanted to believe it.
interesting money issue-
There is pressure for WHO not to call it a pandemic till July to avoid major loss
of money:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=snZ-BQo-L6I
if they do it earlier then World Bank WHO bond holders lose 425M
Shinzo Abe PM of Japan has decreed all schools (public and private) to shut from monday until after the normal April holiday. Day-care centers and after school coaching outfits not yet included.
Shinzo Abe PM of Japan has decreed all schools (public and private) to shut from monday until after the normal April holiday.
That is a very serious step.
This is also impacting the college entrance exams. People who miss them cannot retake them, because the answers are revealed and they cannot write a new test for a make-up exam. I don't understand why they don't make several tests, but they don't.
Here is an article by a political scientist who is highly critical of Abe administration and the Japanese government's response to the coronavirus:
@Jed. The problem in Japan is simple. The politicians and the bureaucrats overrule medical advice, exactly as happened with Fukushima, when Abe's predecessor had studied 'Nuclear Power' at university (for one term) and decided he knew exactly what to do. Even though the Mitsubishi engineers who designed the systems there were telling him otherwise.
W.H.O.: cases in China probably not undercounted much. QUOTE:
"When the virus started to spread in Guangdong — the province where the 2002-2003 SARS outbreak began — worried people flooded fever clinics to be tested. Of 320,000 tests performed, just under 0.5% were positive for the virus at the peak of transmission there, he said — which suggests that only 1 case out of 200 was being missed."
https://www.statnews.com/2020/…ity-rate-who-expert-says/
This means the mortality rate estimates are probably accurate.
That does not mean the mortality rate is fixed. It appears to be falling in China, as the doctors get a better handle on treatment, and more equipment. This only means the initial estimates of 2% are probably accurate.
The politicians and the bureaucrats overrule medical advice, exactly as happened with Fukushima
As far as I know, the bureaucrats and government officials did not interfere or second guess the experts at Fukushima. Not during the melt-down and explosion, and not afterwards. They were scared stiff. They did not want to be blamed.
There were accusations after the fact that someone prevented the construction of a higher sea-wall, which would have prevented the accident. As a I recall, someone found a written recommendation that should be done. A nuclear plant expert said, "you can find an after-the-fact recommendation for anything." His point was that people look at every possible fault, and if every recommendation were followed, the plants would never be finished or operational. I think that is a valid point.
A new paper on drug repurposing discussed at ---
Existing drugs may offer a first-line treatment for coronavirus outbreak
https://medicalxpress.com/news…coronavirus-outbreak.html
The paper cited is ---
Discovery and Development of Safe-in-man Broad-Spectrum Antiviral Agents
https://www.ijidonline.com/article/S1201-9712(20)30076-X/pdf
Refer to section 4 at page 14 ---
Thirty-one BSAAs as drug candidates for treatment of 2019-nCoV infections
Also a more complete (very large) table is provided on page 44 which includes other agents that may also be effective against corona viruses.
Some of the drugs in the first citation are very toxic, for example, cyclosporine. And hexachlorophene? That was banned even as a topical (skin only) agent after several deaths from it's use in surface skin cleaners.
QuoteThe LD50 (oral, rat) is 59 mg/kg, indicating that the compound is relatively toxic.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hexachlorophene
A very strange list but sure, maybe something on it will work out.
As was discussed here and also on TV by NIH's Dr. Anthony Fauci, the current promising antiviral specifically against coronavirus is a combination of remdesivir and chloroquine. https://www.theverge.com/2020/…nt-wuhan-china-gilead-hiv
Some have advocated large doses of vitamin D which is not without risk. The virus seems to use angiotensin converting enzyme (ACE) receptors and there are very safe and effective ACE inhibitors used very commonly to treat high blood pressure and heart failure and these may also help prevent or treat infection. A lot of clever people are working on this so it's pretty sure other drugs will be found. The success of ativirals varies widely. The current ones used against HIV are extremely effective while those used against influenza are not. We can certainly hope for a useful drug and we also need to hope it won't cost too much to make.
ETA: This seems to be the most current "scholarly" paper about remdesivir and chloroquine: https://www.nature.com/article…I67SkcgREM4DyxxAcPauRuf5w
However this is only from "in vitro" testing:
QuoteOur findings reveal that remdesivir and chloroquine are highly effective in the control of 2019-nCoV infection in vitro. Since these compounds have been used in human patients with a safety track record and shown to be effective against various ailments, we suggest that they should be assessed in human patients suffering from the novel coronavirus disease.
A new paper on drug repurposing discussed at ---
Existing drugs may offer a first-line treatment for coronavirus outbreak
That's treatment, not prevention. Only a vaccine can prevent it. Of course, treatment is also valuable.
The New York Times just reported that an ordinary seasonal flu vaccine may offer some protection against Covid-19.
As far as I know, the bureaucrats and government officials did not interfere or second guess the experts at Fukushima. Not during the melt-down and explosion, and not afterwards. They were scared stiff. They did not want to be blamed.
The old PM interfered like crazy. This is a direct quote from an interview he gave recently.
"I myself, was a physics major in college, so I had a rudimentary understanding of nuclear physics and reactors. So, while many politicians and bureaucrats knew how to deal with the natural disaster, I was one of the few political leaders equipped to actually understand the nuclear reactor situation. So, I had no choice but to take a lot of initiative, take matters into my own hands. As a prime minister, I knew where my competitive advantage were: so, I focused on the reactor while I delegated the natural disaster response to other(s)...."
This agrees entirely with what a Mitsubishi Heavy Engineering volunteer rescue worker told me at the time, they formed an expert team and waited for permission to go to the site, but it never came.
look at the picture under
one guy is breathing through the nose with his mask down. This is a show. The show was meant to display govt. efforts to squash the virus instead it creates panic.
Australian PM talks of planning for a pandemic - says it could last 10 months and reduce workforce availability by 40% - that is those sick themselves, and the people caring for them.
Australian PM talks of planning for a pandemic - says it could last 10 months and reduce workforce availability by 40% - that is those sick themselves, and the people caring for them.
"Under worst-case scenarios being contemplated by state and federal governments, forecasts say a pandemic outbreak could last up to 10 months, and 40% of the country’s workforce could be sidelined by illness or caring for family members."
What is the best case estimate? Doesn't hurt stating it.
The old PM interfered like crazy. . . .
This agrees entirely with what a Mitsubishi Heavy Engineering volunteer rescue worker told me at the time, they formed an expert team and waited for permission to go to the site, but it never came.
On the other hand, physicists I heard from such as Mizuno who were assigned to it said the bureaucrats stayed out. And there were several press reports in the U.S. and Japan saying P.M. did a good job. I guess you would have look at a detailed history to find out whether he interfered or helped, and witnesses will have different opinions about it.
He may have had nothing to do with the decision to withhold permission from the Mitsubishi group. I wouldn't know, but that might have been a technical decision by someone which the P.M. never heard of. He reportedly went along with whatever the technical experts recommended, which is what a political leader should do in these situations. I wish Trump and Pence would do that, but every indication is they intend to lard the process in politics. See:
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/0…us-coronavirus-pence.html
HHS whistleblower says workers without protection or training ... Washington Post
[An HHS expert with two awards last years was punished for telling the truth and warning of danger.]
Here is some of the WaPost text, from behind the paywall. This is dreadful:
Whistleblower: Workers at risk aiding evacuees
Complainant alleges she was targeted for raising concerns.
By Lena H. Sun and Yasmeen Abutaleb
Washington Post
WASHINGTON -Officials at the Department of Health and Human Services sent more than a dozen workers to receive the first Americans evacuated from Wuhan, China, the epicenter of the coronavirus outbreak, without proper training for infection control or appropriate protective gear, according to a whistleblower complaint.
The workers did not show symptoms of infection and were not tested for the virus, according to lawyers for the whistleblower, who is a senior HHS official based in Washington who oversees workers at the Administration for Children and Families, a unit within HHS.
The whistleblower is seeking federal protection because she alleges she was unfairly and improperly reassigned after raising concerns about the safety of these workers to HHS officials, including those within the office of Health and Human Services Secretary Alex Azar. She was told Feb. 19 that if she does not accept the new position in 15 days, which is March 5, she would be terminated.
The whistleblower has decades of experience in the field, received two HHS department awards from Azar last year and has received the highest performance evaluations, her lawyers said.
The complaint was filed Wednesday with the Office of the Special Counsel, an independent federal watchdog agency. The whistleblower's lawyers provided a copy of a redacted 24-page complaint to The Washington Post. A spokesman for the Office of the Special Counsel said he could not comment on complaints filed with the office. . . .
The complaint alleges that HHS staff were "improperly deployed" and were "not properly trained or equipped to operate in a public health emergency situation." The complaint also alleges that the workers were potentially exposed to coronavirus because appropriate steps were not taken to protect them, and staff were not trained in wearing personal protective equipment, even though they had face-to-face contact with returning passengers. The workers were in contact with passengers in an airplane hangar where evacuees were received and on two other occasions: when they helped distribute keys for room assignments and hand out colored ribbons for identification purposes. . . .
A second person familiar with the situation said the workers were not tested for coronavirus because none of them met the criteria for testing, which only calls for testing people who had recent travel to China or contact with a confirmed case. The workers also did not exhibit any symptoms, the person said. If they had, appropriate protocol would have been followed.
The deployments took place Jan. 28 to 31, around the time when the first planeload of evacuees arrived at March, and Feb. 2 to Feb. 7, during the time when additional flights were arriving at Travis. The planes each carried about 200 Americans repatriated from Wuhan.
After their deployments, the workers returned to their normal duties, some taking commercial airline flights to return to their offices around the country, the lawyers said.
What is the best case estimate? Doesn't hurt stating it.
The best case would be the disease is contained by quarantine until a vaccine can be developed and deployed. A vaccine should stop it, because it is one species and probably will not mutate before the vaccine can be deployed.