Covid-19 (WuFlu) News

  • The evidence for favipiravir looks much more robust than the evidence for

    chloroquine..HCQ

    I guess that Xi Jinping wouldn't be sending it out as gift to Erdogan if it didn't work


    I was surprised to see ethics in the report

    I underestimated the mainland Chinese.. personal bias I guess


    "it was ethically unacceptable to allocate patients to receive a different experimental drug

    using a randomization process impossible for most of the patients to understand."


    https://www.sciencedirect.com/…cle/pii/S2095809920300631


    I used the same MannWhitneyU test in my research

    their research is much more useful

  • your numbers are correct if beautiful math ruled the world. That belief also wrote off few generations of physicists.

    Beautiful math does rule the behavior of epidemics. This has been known for hundreds of years. Do you dispute it? My numbers agree with the professional models. Do you know of a reason why every epidemiologist is wrong? Do you have some secret knowledge? Oh Tell Us Please: What is wrong with the models at the W.H.O? Or the models in every textbook in the last 200 years?


    My numbers have been correct for the past 3 weeks. I know that because they correctly predicted each day's Daily New Cases to within 10% or so (except for March 21). (https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/) They predicted a week ahead of time to reasonable extent. Anyone could have done that. There has been no change in the slope of curve. When the number of cases reaches a certain point, my numbers will fail, for well-known reasons. All those extra parameters in the professional models kick in. For one thing, I predict more than 100% of the population being infected by April 27, which is absurd.


    The slope of the curve in Italy and elsewhere has changed drastically. I could not have predicted that with such simplistic methods.


    The physicists were never wrong. They became more right. Newtonian physics works well; Einstein improved on them.

  • JedRothwell Thanks anyway.


    robert bryant

    Quote

    The evidence for favipiravir looks much more robust than the evidence for

    chloroquine..HCQ

    The issue isn't chloroquine, it's hydroxchloroquine combined with azithromycin. And more important, the efficacy to of that combination to treat the virus is simply unknown. The only thing known is that in 6 French patients, the combination completely stopped virus shedding from the nose. And in control patients, the shedding continued and in patients receiving only hydroxychloroquine, the shedding was less than controls but not zero. It's sort of nice to keep the facts in mind during discussions. Which CNN so far has done a poor job with. And just for the fun of splitting hairs, Turkey's favipiravir while it may have come from China, was invented in Japan, if I can go by Google.

  • I always find it interesting to keep watching the google search trends. Thus you can get an impression of how serious and interested people are in a topic:


    https://trends.google.com/tren…03-m&q=corona,coronavirus


    At the moment world wide interest is decreasing. This could also imply an upcoming increase of denial of the current lock down politics all over the world? From a psychological PoV...


  • The problem with beautiful maths is that much of the data going into it at the moment seems to be poor.


    Now I am not a scientist so perhaps some others here could kindly put me right.


    The R0 is still up for debate and changes depending on local conditions. As has been pointed out different societies have different habits, such as hugging or not.

    Worse the "testing" is pretty flawed. It seems there are different tests being used each with different weaknesses and accuracies in terms of false positives.

    Additionally many countries the testing is sporadic and seemingly not systematic. And even where it might be systematic that can change. For instance I read somewhere that Italy had a testing process that was pretty much abandoned when the health system got overloaded. So how much can we trust the figures in the US and UK?


    Similarly the CFR is all over the place from WHO figure (somewhere north of 3%) to Trumps gut feeling (somewhere around 0.1%). A lot of authorities seem to agree around 1%.


    I am surprised that the interesting link that Rends published further up has not been commented on.


    A Swiss doctor on Covid19


    There are very interesting observations in here from people that are scientists, immunologists, and doctors.

    I mean it has numbers and graphs and everything :)



    But seriously; we potentialy have no good outcomes here.

    At the higher end we have millions of deaths.

    At the lower end if it turns out that this was all a crazy panic then maybe those who argued that it is overblown could yet be vindicated and the WHO, doctors and science in general will have shot itself, not in the foot, but in the head!

  • Good idea to find out how many patients already taking hydroxychloroquine for Lupus or rheumatoid arthritis have come down with coronavirus which might correlate with the unexpected absence of a massive epidemic in malarial regions where quinine analogues used prophylactically.

  • the unexpected absence of a massive epidemic in malarial regions

    God/Allah Bless Nigeria

    https://qz.com/africa/1824401/…conducted-only-153-tests/


    There are an estimated 100 million malaria cases with over 300,000 deaths per year in Nigeria.

    This compares with 215,000 deaths per year in Nigeria from HIV/AIDS.


    Nigeria should be kind to Pangolins

    These are the children of Gaia

    https://qz.com/africa/1823783/…ngolin-trade-trafficking/

  • The issue isn't chloroquine, it's hydroxchloroquine combined with azithromycin. + zinc


    Don't miss the Zinc! that possibly also allows to lower the dose.


    News from Switzerland: The hightech centre Zürich (covering 1/5 of Switzerland population ) sees about 2% of tested positive needing ICU (ventilators). Mortality is in the range of 0.5 0.75 but as said earlier so far only people with preconditions.


    An other medication path tried in Switzerland /Italy: Arthritis autoimmune damping drug called Actema (Roche). Shows some good sign in severe lung inflammation cases.


    Warning to all US worshippers: Do no longer go to/attend any public service. The Korea outbreak got a 10 fold boost most due to a large Christian sect meeting.


    Even worse in east France former German part Alsace can no longer handle patients older than 75! Here too a very large warship party of a Christian sect promoted the spreading even to Basel (Switzerland) that has more than 50'000 workers from Alsace. Yesterday Alsace shipped a fully loaded high speed train (TGV) of intubation patients to Paris!!

  • Oh that's a good one - all the corona virus cases in Nigeria are in hiding. One Italian made contact with 172 Nigerians one of which became Ill but both later recovered. The other 171 probably took chloroquine or mefloquine on developing a fever thinking it was the usual malaria fever. Better than being dragged off to hospital and catching god-knows what else.:)