Covid-19 News

Quote from seven_of_twenty

Until we have widespread and nearly universal testing, both for live virus and for antibodies, we have nothing to go on.

Yes!! To his credit, this is what Fauci is saying. I hope he can prevail against the panel of business advisors who want to open the country as quickly as possible.

Quote from seven_of_twenty

But even with good care, those who don't die often incur permanent organ damage and lifelong high costs and misery.

Yes. This is not widely remembered, but many survivors from the 1918 Spanish flu were weakened, and died young. It was common theme in popular literature in the 1920s. "She was never the same after surviving the flu."

Quote from seven_of_twenty

But with poor care or overwhelmed medical centers, even the young and healthy die in droves. You just do not seem to understand what a pandemic is. Or what this particular virus does in some people.

Yes, again. Without intensive, modern medical care, you are no better off than people dying at home in India, or than people were centuries ago. As I said before, just living in the 21st century does you no good if you do not have access to 21st century doctors, nurses and medical equipment. You are no healthier, stronger or more likely to survive than my grandfather was in 1918.

Boris Johnson, who came close to dying, explained that the nurses had to stay with him 24 hours a day, constantly monitoring his condition and adjusting the equipment. If the hospitals are overwhelmed, hundreds of thousand of people, young and old, will not get this level of attention, and they will die or be disabled for life. See:

The ID NOW machine: https://abbott.mediaroom.com/2…as-Little-as-Five-Minutes

The M-2000 real time system: https://abbott.mediaroom.com/2…-Detect-Novel-Coronavirus

Another press release about this: https://abbott.mediaroom.com/2…as-Little-as-Five-Minutes

It seems there are two types of Abbott machines that can test for COVID-19. I know they are popular and widely distributed but did not have time to pursue the details.

Shane D. We are within reach of adequate testing, probable therapeutics and some sort of vaccine. Which will kill more people and where? Waiting for those mitigations to work or rushing ahead to "open up" America? I don't know for sure. Check out the modelling.

Quote from Alan Smith

Freedoms and the cultural perception of what they are differ from place to place and time to time. for example, you are free to do things in the UK that you cannot so easily do in the USA, and vice-versa

Freedom also changes, sometimes quickly. Gay people are allowed to gather in public without being harassed or arrested by police. That change came practically overnight after the Stonewall riots of 1969.

Anyone who thinks that black people had liberty and freedom in the past is a complete ignoramus. I am not talking about before the Civil War, or before 1963 voting rights act. I mean in the 1970s and late 80s. Even white people who associated with them were harrassed by the government to an extent unthinkable today. In the 1970s, my brother was a public school teacher in Atlanta, GA. He would sometimes drive a beat up station wagon with black students or coworkers in the car with him. Always carefully at the speed limit. But he could not go for more than a few miles without being pulled over, harrassed and sometimes frisked by policemen. Forsyth county, a suburb of Atlanta, drove every single black person of the county in 1912. In 1987 there were still no black people there, and when black people protested this de facto segregation, the police had to protect them from crowds of angry residents.

The situation is much better today.

However, the black population still suffers from the long term effects of poverty and poor healthcare. Black people are dying of the coronavirus at a rate about twice as high as the general population. See:

https://www.usatoday.com/story…-major-cities/2961323001/

Quote from JedRothwell

At no level. We have not given up any rights.

We gave up rights in 911. We are no 19 years later, and finally we have a university group publishing a paper in March saying that the building 7 can't have fallen for the reasons stated by gov. This is a rights grab and it is happening in your face. I almost can't believe that you can't see it - due to the earnestness of your response.

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You need to read history.

There is the history in textbooks, and the deep history you need to discover. I can refer you to history you must learn. Dark Journalist has interviewed many historians and academics that is a starting point.

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This is what any sane nation must do in the face of a serious epidemic. If we had not shut down the entire country, we would have hundreds of thousands of new cases a day, and millions of deaths by the end of the year. Without a vaccine, shutting down and quarantine are the only way to stop -- or slow down -- an epidemic. This has been known for all of recorded history. It is as true today as it was in the 15th century

It has not been established this is a pandemic. Don't you dare use things happen in the media or by government as evidence of anything, or what you feel to be true. Scientists feel LENR can't be, but it is. Pseudo governmental agencies decided LENR can't exist and there was to be no more investigation, but it is. I can't repeat some history but I know for a fact that at the very highest levels LENR was stopped in the cold-fusion era on purpose. There is an uber-elite and yes, they do have mechanisms of control and yes they are pulling strings and over-reaching. Nobody is saying there is no virus, as family members are in the 80s I would definitely need to be vigilant. But to stop modern society, and wait till we're all vax'd is ridiculous when again - it hasn't been established what the disease profile is out there.

To the present situation I'm in touch with physicians who are seriously concerned about the situation and the potential for fraud - and they are treating the people on the ground.

The two most egregious factors

a) We don't know how many people in the population have the disease. There is no testing. Watch 5mins of this.

b) They are marking covid deaths for people who don't die of covid.

So it has not been established whether this lives up to the hype. It looks like it hasn't and many more people will have antibodies to this and have had it than expected. People die from the flu as well each year, this is a bad one.

Quote from seven_of_twenty

You open a vial of fluid and swish the patient's nasal swab in it for a short time. Then you insert the vial into the machine, press a button and that's it. 5 minutes to get a positive test and 15 minutes to verify a negative.

There were always enough machines available to do PCR. But in most places they did run out of cases, stubs, the process specific solvent for the probes in the machine. Also enough protective cloths are needed in some environment to guarantee that no contamination happens.

Only Island was lucky as they do run the famous genome project that fully decodes all genes of all inhabitants of the Island...

Quote from Shane D.

In almost every article I read, it is mentioned that this disease mainly attacks the old. That is just a fact. And most of the younger ones dying, have underlying health issues.

If the younger people did not get intensive medical care, the healthy ones would die at a much higher rate than they are now. Probably 2 or 3%. That's what the statistics from Wuhan in the early chaotic weeks show. Yes, old people would die at an even higher rate. Probably around 10% for people in their 60. Mostly older people but, if the hospitals were overwhelmed, hundreds of thousand of young people, age 20 to 40, will also die. Or they will be unhealthy for the rest of their lives. If we open up the country before testing and tracing is ready, it is 100% certain the epidemic will rebound about a month later, in July. At least 100,000 more people will die, and we will have to shut down again. Or, if we do not, millions will die, including hundreds of thousands of young people. That is what an uncontrolled epidemic with an inherent 1% to 3% mortality rate does. It is a fact of nature. Nothing can change that. With no vaccine, it can only be avoided by mass-testing and monitoring, OR with a massive shut-down. We have not been capable of mass-testing so far. Until we are, the only way to avoid a holocaust is by shutting down.

This is not debatable. It is a fact of biology. The only question is: are you willing to see millions of people, young and old, die, in return for "reopening" business? Actually, you will not succeed in "reopening" anything. As soon as people see that the hospitals are overwhelmed and people are being sent home to die, they will stop going to work, and stop buying things. People were not out shopping and living normally in 1918.

What return to business as usual can there be? Today the U.S. lost 5% of its pork production because a single factory has shut down, because so many employees are sick with the coronavirus:

https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/12…res-smithfield/index.html

If things get out of hand and the disease runs rampant, today, or in a few months from now with a rebound, many other factories will shut down and we will have serious shortages of food and other essentials goods and services. This is the outcome that must follow if we ignore experts such as Fauci and reopen without the ability to do mass testing and monitoring. This is physics, chemistry and biology. There is no appealing the outcome, and no opinion matters.

Quote from Navid

We gave up rights in 911. We are no 19 years later, and finally we have a university group publishing a paper in March saying that the building 7 can't have fallen for the reasons stated by gov. This is a rights grab and it is happening in your face.

Perhaps, but we did not need to. That was a choice made by American voters. In the 19th century and in 1918, Americans gave up rights temporarily to deal with epidemics. Then they took those right back again, when the epidemics ended. We can do that again. There is no need to repeat the mistakes made after 9/11.

For that matter, we can take back the right we gave up after 9/11. We can do that by voting for people who do not talk like Mussolini, saying things like: "I alone can fix it." Vote for people who talk like fascists and act like fascists and you get fascism.

The fact that we must temporarily give up rights, the way people did in previous epidemics in 1918 and before, is no permanent threat to freedom.

Quote from Navid

It has not been established this is a pandemic.

WTF? Have you been under a rock for the last four weeks? What do you call it, a picnic? A walk in the park, perhaps? The Wrath of Khan?

BTW, the Fox channel has excellent coverage some of the time, especially early in the day. And on weekends, Chris Wallace does an essentially impartial job at getting to the truth. But it seems that evening brings out the whackjobs and weirdoes with their alternative realities.

Quote from JedRothwell

Or, if we do not, millions will die, including hundreds of thousands of young people. That is what an uncontrolled epidemic with an inherent 1% to 3% mortality rate does. It is a fact of nature. Nothing can change that. With no vaccine, it can only be avoided by mass-testing and monitoring, OR with a massive shut-down. We have not been capable of mass-testing so far. Until we are, the only way to avoid a holocaust is by shutting down.

You are stepping up your blow-hard arguments ("holocaust") in the same way the puppet-masters do. How do you come up with this stuff, state it with no evidence, and not sneak away from this forum?

I have posted two physicians - Stanford Professor in epidemiology and a Senator who is a physician - they don't agree with you. Many many others don't - but they aren't yet outspoken. Where did you get your 3% mortality rate? Imperial College?

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This is not debatable. It is a fact of biology. The only question is: are you willing to see millions of people, young and old, die, in return for "reopening" business? This is physics, chemistry and biology. There is no appealing the outcome, and no opinion matters.

Who pays you for these opinions stated as facts? WHO? Many people on this board may fall for this, but in this convo you are dealing with people (not just me, I'm connected - and incidentally my father was a Professor of Medicine). I understand the game being played and aren't going to let you run rampant with fear mongering. Stand down.

Quote from seven_of_twenty

WTF? Have you been under a rock for the last four weeks? What do you call it, a picnic? A walk in the park, perhaps? The Wrath of Khan?

Without getting into personal details I have designed medical equipment used in hospitals and I have datasets from covid patients with many serious lung disease burden. (Ground glass opacities). I was looking at pictures of this weeks ago. So, in short I have a meta-view on this situation.

Until you establish some basic parameters and evidence whether this flu is serious enough to put billions of people in lockdown has not been established. That is the view of many experts. If you want to shut down the breadth of opinion and take your advice from Gates, WHO, Gavi, and Fauci (who is intimate with the whole gang) solely - then you are looking at a Clockwork Orange situation - where we put toothpick in your eye and let CNN blast on 24/7.

Quote from Navid

Stand down.

Second offense for NZ's minister of health.Dr Clarke.. the first was mountainbiking

NZ is a more forgiving country than Oz or Scotland where Ministers have resigned for one offense

Lockdown without Clockwork Orange... but with Bikework Kiwi?

Quote from seven_of_twenty

Waiting for those mitigations to work or rushing ahead to "open up" America? I don't know for sure. Check out the modelling.

The models have very wide margins of error, as you see here:

https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america

This is considered authoritative. It was cited by top White House officials. As you see, it now predicts 62,000 deaths by August 4, with few deaths after that. But the range is 26,000 to 155,000. Very large error margins! On the other hand, as you see where it has been updated with actual data through April 9, it has been remarkably accurate. Here's the thing, though. This is predicated on:

"COVID-19 projections assuming full social distancing through May 2020" (as it says at the top)

It would be interesting to a version with full social distancing ending May 1. I am sure the numbers would be higher. I don't know how much higher. Here is another model, from FEMA and the Dept. of Homeland security:

https://int.nyt.com/data/docum…optimized/full.pdf#page=1

As you see it shows "unmitigated" 300,000 deaths, or "30-day shelter-in-place followed by steady state mitigation measures," 200,000 deaths. Granted, most of the deaths are people 65 years old or older. For some reason, people are beginning to think that group is expendable. As a member of that group, I disagree. Other models show many more deaths in the unmitigated projection, for all age groups.

Quote from JedRothwell

If the younger people did not get intensive medical care, the healthy ones would die at a much higher rate than they are now. Probably 2 or 3%.

The current accepted death rate is 0.6..0.7% what is in agreement with some 200000 cases in Switzerland North and Germany. This is for a place where medicine works.

The death rate for the" youngest" age group 18..65 is very small compared to the 75+ group . We here are talking of factors as large as 1000 not 10. But we so far have only the "first flush" information e.g. of Italy that analyzed all 3500 first deaths that did show - all had preconditions. But this only tells people with preconditions die early!

But why do some people not even get an infection albeit they live with somebody that had it? This is crucial for the overall mortality and only that one counts. If e.g. classic corona that looks like a cold or weak flu gives you some protection for covid-19 then most younger that recently had it will not even show covid-19 antibodies despite a contact!

US CDC started classic corona tracing just one year(2018) ahead of covid-19 because some flue deaths in fact were classic corona deaths.

What if 70-80% of the population is already partially immune?? This would be an important test, finding people with recent corona brand antibodies and monitor how many of them will get covid-19 .

Quote from Shane D.

There has to be a balance. Even THH is coming around to accepting that, and factoring "the other side of the equation" into the decision making matrix. Unfortunately, there seems to be little sympathy for the unemployed, those taking pay cuts, contemplating suicide, or those impoverished in 3rd world, from the media, where it would really count. At the moment though, the better ratings come from death counts being broadcast 24/7.

Just FYI. I've always factored in the other side, I'm naturally quite utilitarian. I separate what in best of all worlds might be done from what politics and people's feelings make practical. Feelings matter, even when they lead to non-utilitarian policies.

I don't like either side of this debate, politically. Both sides seem to be arguing politics not making a clear balanced decision. I guess when decisions are difficult that is what happens. People go black and white because acknowledging the difficulty both ways is tough.

Quote from Navid

You are stepping up your blow-hard arguments ("holocaust") in the same way the puppet-masters do.

Without mitigation and shelter in place, there is no doubt millions of Americans will die. Shelter in place with aid to people who have lost their jobs will cost of a small fraction of our GDP. So, those people will die to save a little tax money now, and their deaths will end up costing a lot more tax money. If that is not holocaust, what would be? What would you call it? Millions of cruel, painful, unnessary deaths is a holocaust.

Quote from Navid

How do you come up with this stuff, state it with no evidence, and not sneak away from this forum?

Every expert epidemiologist and every public health agency projects millions of deaths without either testing and tracing OR stay-at-home policies. Those are the only two options. So far, we have utterly failed to achieve option 1, so option 2 is all there is . . . for now. I hope the U.S. will catch up with Korea in the coming weeks. If it does, we can get back to work and restart the economy safely. They never turned off the economy in Korea. We only had to do it in the U.S., Italy and the UK because our leaders are idiots.