Above post continued...
Covid-19 News
- Alan Smith
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This is about the most depressing situation I have ever seen. Watching the number at Worldmeters (https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/) reminds me of watching the run-up to the war in Iraq. Or like watching the run-up to World War I, I suppose. That war came out of nowhere. Anyone who understood weapons and war knew that it meant that millions of people would die. Anyone today who understands medical science, statistics and third-world conditions knows that this, too, means that millions will die. It did not have to happen! It might have been prevented. But I fear it is too late.
I feel that this the end of an era. We shall never again feel so safe. So carefree. I feel the way British Foreign Secretary Sir Edward Grey felt in 1914, when the war began. He said: "The lamps are going out all over Europe, we shall not see them lit again in our life-time."
Perhaps we were foolish thinking that disease was at bay. That those of us in the first world were safe from most infectious disease. But that is how we have lived ever since antibiotics and the polio vaccine were invented. This sudden end to a safe, secure life resembles the onset of World War I as I said, and also perhaps the invention of the atomic bomb. That meant, for the first time, everyone in every nation might face a horrible death in war. For Americans, war was no longer something that could only happen to our young men in other countries.
This is far worse than the 9-11 attacks. Even if does not result in 10 or 20 times more deaths than the usual seasonal influenza, it will disrupt our daily life, making us think twice about every trip the grocery store or the YMCA. It may even paralyze life, as it did in 1918. Nothing will be safe until a year or so from now when a vaccine becomes available. Even after that, we will all know that another pandemic might come at any time.
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There have always been plagues of one sort or another. Humans simply are not ever safe, With the advent of social media and 24 hours news channels, we become more conscious of new threats faster and more profoundly. A lot of people felt quite lost at the advent of HIV/AIDS but now, in many places, it is understood, prevented and/or controlled. At least since 1918, humanity has been aware of pandemics and they could occur at any time. At least now we have some science with which to fight back -- science, I might add, that some politicians seek constantly to divert or cripple. Maybe this will open their eyes but I doubt it.
On another subject, if you take an ACE inhibitor drug (for example enalopril) or an "ARB" to control blood pressure or heart failure, you may want to read this below. Of course, don't stop any medication without consulting your physician!
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There have always been plagues of one sort or another. Humans simply are not ever safe, With the advent of social media and 24 hours news channels, we become more conscious of new threats faster and more profoundly. A lot of people felt quite lost at the advent of HIV/AIDS but now, in many places, it is understood, prevented and/or controlled. At least since 1918, humanity has been aware of pandemics and they could occur at any time. At least now we have some science with which to fight back -- science, I might add, that some politicians seek constantly to divert or cripple. Maybe this will open their eyes but I doubt it.
On another subject, if you take an ACE inhibitor drug (for example enalopril) or an "ARB" to control blood pressure or heart failure, you may want to read this below. Of course, don't stop any medication without consulting your physician!
We can never be safe from bacterial and viral (possibly even fungal) diseases.
But the advances in understanding genetics and the immune system, together with CRISPR and other technologies, are transforming our ability to fight back. Humanity is in the middle of a medical revolution so we can be very hopeful about the future.
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There have always been plagues of one sort or another. Humans simply are not ever safe, With the advent of social media and 24 hours news channels, we become more conscious of new threats faster and more profoundly.
Yes, of course. For that matter, since 1949 we have known that Russia could destroy all of our cities with nuclear weapons. That did frighten us in the 1960s. But except during the Cuban crises, I think we realized it was a remote possibility. It did not seem likely to happen. We have always known that pandemics are possible. My grandparents had vivid memories of the 1918 epidemic. But another pandemic . . . seemed unlikely, until now. Whereas this pandemic is something you can watch grow by the hour at Worldmeters. It is inevitable. My wife compared it to watching a blizzard approach on the weather channel, knowing that tomorrow morning there will be two feet of snow, and there is nothing you can do about it.
Just knowing that something bad will happen -- and must happen eventually -- does not necessarily make life miserable. We all know that someday we must die. Any knowledgeable person knows you are likely to get cancer. That is probably much more likely than dying from the coronavirus this year. But it only happens to you, and hopefully, it only happens after a long and happy life when you are old. Whereas this is going to happen to many people, this year, all over the world, including many in their 60s who might have lived a full life for another 20 years. Far worse, it will happen to many people in their 20s and 30s, in the prime of life. My children might die of it! That worries me far more than the possibility it might knock me off. I know the stats. I realize they are at a much lower risk, but it is well above seasonal flu, and when I was in my 30s, seasonal flu once put me in the hospital for two weeks. I might have died.
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Humanity is in the middle of a medical revolution so we can be very hopeful about the future.
Except for the 4 billion people living in the third world, who may die at the same rate people did in 1918.
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Since about 100 years we cheat nature/evolution. Evolution depends on the time vector that defines the distance to the next contact. Thus nature was able to contain healthy populations and less healthy disappeared without notice. Globalization fundamentally changes the rules of evolution. Medicine fundamentally changes the rules of selection. Making medicine/health a business not a human right fundamentally changes the rules of selection. Giving medicine to undeveloped countries has a deeper impact than giving them powerful weapons.
Rissig the temperature of planet earth by 3 degrees like this winter in Europe corresponds to a time leap of more than 10'000 years. Current level of CO2 is a flash back of 500'000 years.
And what did an old Swiss politician say today: "The young people should help to protect their parents/grand parents that are way more affected by corona. The young should honor the splendid gift they made for todays generation..."
Luckily I do have no more parents even. But I would answer: "Go to hell!"
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The outer packaging return address label for the chloroquine and amantadine I received was:
Combitic Global Caplet Pvt. Ltd.
Address: 2027, 7, Bazar Sangatrashan,
Chuna Mandi, Paharganj, New Delhi, Delhi 110055, India
per Google: Pharmaceutical company in New Delhi, India
They were clearly shipped from India directly. I think all this this makes a counterfeit unlikely unless it is an extremely elaborate one which they rarely are.
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Since about 100 years we cheat nature/evolution. Evolution depends on the time vector that defines the distance to the next contact. Thus nature was able to contain healthy populations and less healthy disappeared without notice. Globalization fundamentally changes the rules of evolution. Medicine fundamentally changes the rules of selection. Making medicine/health a business not a human right fundamentally changes the rules of selection. Giving medicine to undeveloped countries has a deeper impact than giving them powerful weapons.
Rissig the temperature of planet earth by 3 degrees like this winter in Europe corresponds to a time leap of more than 10'000 years. Current level of CO2 is a flash back of 500'000 years.
And what did an old Swiss politician say today: "The young people should help to protect their parents/grand parents that are way more affected by corona. The young should honor the splendid gift they made for todays generation..."
Luckily I do have no more parents even. But I would answer: "Go to hell!"
This sounds like Munich speech.
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This sounds like Munich speech.
No: It just shows why most older people do not understand the "extinction rebellion" young ones. Human culture always was about slavery versus freedom. Currently the older treat the younger like slaves or at least try it. Only brilliant or clever minds can escape that schema. For the same reason they (the older- wealthier) believe that we live in a wonderful world with outstanding medical treatment absolute freedom to fly to any point of planet earth. But they don't give a shit for their shit that spoils the oceans kills the insects or simply half of the species on earth by deforestation.
From such a viewpoint corona is far to mild. Until recently evolution was able to kill such brainless beings. May be the next try will do it!
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Swiss Covid-19 news:
More than 3000 tested about 10% (around 290 today midday) positive. At least 80% have mild symptoms.
New doctrine: People showing up with mild symptoms no longer will be tested for sars-Covid-19 and are simply asked to stay home (2 weeks) as in normal flu cases.
According the current model 20..60% of all population will be exposed to the new virus. May be that's why the Chinese figures did strongly decline too.
People with lung problems (strong smokers), severe chronic preconditions, uncontrolled diabetes, high blood pressure medication should take serious precautions and may be isolate themselves.
Corona tracking will be replaced by a reporting only system. It's now treated on the same level as influenza!
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I think it's probably worth just sticking to tonic water which will only possibly give you a slight edge against the virus - any slight advantage could be the difference between life and death
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Epidemiology Estimates By US Hospitals Association. Projections A slide from their briefing..... expectations for the next 2 months..... Dr. James Lawler, a professor at the University of Nebraska Medical Center gave his “best guess” estimates of how much the virus might spread in the US.
Lawler’s estimates include:
•4.8 million hospitalizations associated with the novel coronavirus
•96 million cases overall in the US...
•480,000 deaths
•Overall, the slide points out that hospitals should prepare for an impact to the system that’s 10 times a severe flu season.
This Medical Center is where they have taken some virus victims and took the ebola patients before.
Here is a slide from the briefing for Hospitals
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According the current model 20..60% of all population will be exposed to the new virus. May be that's why the Chinese figures did strongly decline too.
I do not think so. The Chinese have done extensive testing of the population which appears to be healthy, and they have found very few infections. They have tested hundreds of thousands of people. If there were "hidden" cases they would know approximately how many there were, from such a large sample.
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There are reports of "black rain" in Japan.
One theory is that it is from the crematoriums in China where they are working
“over time” burning coronavirus victims. Crematoriums have said that 60% of the
bodies are from deaths in their own homes and thus not officially listed in the numbers.
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•96 million cases overall in the US...
•480,000 deaths
I will not be surprised if this happens. The thing is, we know it can be prevented. In China, fewer than 100 people are getting sick per day. Overall, they will probably have ~4,000 deaths. The U.S. may have 100 times more deaths because we are idiots.
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One theory is that it is from the crematoriums in China where they are working
“over time” burning coronavirus victims.
This is simply not possible. Yes, China is a totalitarian dictatorship, but it is also a modern nation with e-mail and the best internet connections on earth. You could not possibly keep something like this secret. Dozens of people are dying every day. NOT thousands. If there were thousands, their relatives would tell others. The secret would get out.
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The Chinese have done extensive testing of the population which appears to be healthy, and they have found very few infections.
They jailed (at home) the population of all affected cities for 4 weeks! This you can do once without totally killing the industry. This option now runs out and they will see the same spreading as we see in the future. As all western countries show now: You can no longer track down the virus as we already have to many uncorrelated infections (like Seattle USA). We have now to focus on the severe cases and the most vulnerable population.
There is so far no reason to believe that the overall death rate is larger than .5% most likely its at 0.05% as the larger part seems not to respond to the virus.
For the USA where people have accumulated 30% bodyweight in fat the last 30 years with a high follow up rate of diabetes and high blood pressure it could in fact end much worse. But that's how evolution works. Sorry folks but all of you had the chance to change your live style. Now its the classic wild west shut down situation! Might become an emotional problem rather than a real one.
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I do not think so. The Chinese have done extensive testing of the population which appears to be healthy, and they have found very few infections. They have tested hundreds of thousands of people. If there were "hidden" cases they would know approximately how many there were, from such a large sample.
That is not exactly correct.
The problem with such testing is that you cannot catch people who have had the infection and overcome it.
When we have a reliable antibody-based test we will be able to do that and the epidemiological position will be much more certain. We do not at the moment have that.
Until then we have to use mathematical modelling extrapolating from information we have.
The big unknown with such epidemics is always what proportion of the population catch it and are never detected.
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Even though there may be significant under-counting in China it is undeniable that:
(1) after initial cover-up China has been transparent and implemented all best practice science led recommendations to an extent that observers did not think possible, and in fact that alas no Western country is contemplating.
(2) the US has basically done the reverse. For many months political leaders were reassuring population that the virus would have no significant impact, contrary to scientific advice, because this is an anti-science administration with little competence and a tendency to see things as they want them to be rather than as they are.
So it is pretty likely, given that containment nowhere is working long-term, that the US will have a higher death rate as proportion of the population.
China is not out of this yet. Until we have a vaccine community transmission will rumble on and any relaxation of extreme vigilance will result in another outbreak.
