Covid-19 News

  • https://www.medscape.com/viewarticle/928472#vp_2

    Bigger, Faster Trials Planned

    In perhaps the fastest-moving, large prophylaxis trial, researchers at Duke University are leading a $50 million collaboration across hundreds of American health care systems, which will test 15,000 volunteers. Half the health care workers will take hydroxychloroquine, and half a placebo. Other drugs could be added to the study if they prove promising for preventing or lessening infection, says Adrian Hernandez, the trial's principle investigator.

    The trial is being launched by PCORnet®, the National Patient-Centered Clinical Research Network, a network of health care systems that have come together over the last few years to plan and conduct research trials. Although the collaboration predates COVID-19 by nearly five years, this is precisely the kind of situation it was designed to address, says Hernandez, adding that he hopes the network will soon be able to test COVID-19 vaccine candidates as well.

    The team is planning to begin registering participants as soon as this week, he says, with dosing to begin in the middle of April and lasting about 10 weeks. Hernandez says he expects to publish the first results this summer.

    Clinical research of this size usually takes several years, with another year or two before the results are published. But there has never before been so much at stake. "The motivations are extreme. People are moving mountains to make this happen." He says he hopes that innovations made during this crisis will have a lasting impact on the research process.

    "It'll be a new model, if it's successful," he says. "Speed is of the essence. We need to get answers before things get worse with our health care workers."

    In France, researchers are running a trial with 1,200 health care workers to test prophylactic use of hydroxychloroquine or a combination of two HIV drugs, Lopinavir and Ritonavir, which failed as a treatment in people with severe COVID-19 infections but may work as prevention. It is expected to take 6 months.

    In a 40,000-person trial led by the University of Oxford in England, participants in Asia will receive chloroquine or a placebo, and in Europe, hydroxychloroquine or a placebo. That trial is expected to take a year.

    Robert Salata, chairman of the department of medicine at UH Cleveland Medical Center, is including 4,500 patients in his trial of an antiseptic that health care workers will spray into their mouth three times a day.

    "It's pleasant tasting and it's really safe," says Salata, also a professor of medicine, epidemiology and international health at Case Western Reserve University, in Cleveland. The antiseptic, called ARMS-I, made by ARMS Pharmaceutical of Cleveland, is already present in lower concentrations in some mouthwashes, he says.

    Salata's team studied the same antiseptic in 100 people during flu season and found that it decreased the number of upper respiratory infections, and if patients got sick, they recovered faster. The antiseptic has also proved useful in bone marrow transplant patients who have weakened immune systems, he says.

    He is now recruiting patients and expects the trial to take about 4 months, 6 for the results. It is not yet fully funded, he says, but he hopes to raise more, and the company that makes the antiseptic has promised to make up the difference.

    "If this works, it could be a game-changer, so we want to move on it quickly," Salata says.

  • In Japan, PM Abe and conservatives appear to have taken leave of their senses. The number of cases in Tokyo is growing exponentially. They are no longer able to trace every case. The governor of Tokyo is taking what steps she can to close things down. Meanwhile, the national government is arguing about whether to close department stores and hairdressers. Hairdressers! If they do not close everything, immediately, and issue strict stay-at-home orders for a few weeks, they will soon look like Italy or New York City.


    https://covid19japan.com/


    Like so many others, these national leaders do not appear to understand exponential increase, and what happens when cases double every 3 days, from 362 to 562. This was the situation in March in the U.S. If it had continued we would have hundreds of thousands of new cases per day, because even now, even assuming actual cases are 10 times higher than reported cases, still only ~1% of the population has been infected, so there is no herd immunity in most places.


    Meanwhile, in the U.S., an analysis by the Dept. of Homeland security predicts that if stay-at-home orders are lifted at the end of this month, the epidemic will rebound and 200,000 to 300,000 people will die. This can only be avoided with massive testing and case tracing, on a national basis, such as they have in Korea. Local efforts will not work, because the virus does not recognize state lines. This program must be in place and in operation the day stay-at-home orders end. But as one news report says, there is no indication whatever that such a program is being implemented. Or even contemplated. So, we will return to the situation where we are blind and helpless, with no way to avoid another round of explosive growth. Such growth must follow in an uncontrolled, natural epidemic, until enough individuals acquire immunity. That is built into biology.


    See:


    https://www.nytimes.com/2020/0…onavirus-updates-usa.html


    https://int.nyt.com/data/docum…2d8825/optimized/full.pdf


    https://www.nytimes.com/2020/0…tes-usa.html#link-cfe0b1a


    "New federal projections show a spike in infections if shelter-in-place orders are lifted at 30 days.

    Stay-at-home orders, school closures and social distancing greatly reduce infections of the coronavirus, but lifting those restrictions after just 30 days will lead to a dramatic infection spike this summer and death tolls that would rival doing nothing, government projections indicate. . . ."



  • This can only be avoided with massive testing and case tracing, on a national basis, such as they have in Korea. Local efforts will not work, because the virus does not recognize state lines. This program must be in place and in operation the day stay-at-home orders end. But as one news report says, there is no indication whatever that such a program is being implemented. Or even contemplated.


    Google & Apple just today decided to implement a cross OS app for corona tracking for both phone worlds! Be sure they will deliver it!

  • I prefer data to conjecture and wild opinions (ie. bullpucky).

    Example:

    https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/…04973?query=featured_home


    Note especially figure 1 which is too large for me to include in this brief summary.


    Quote

    Both viruses had an exponential decay in virus titer across all experimental conditions, as indicated by a linear decrease in the log10TCID50 per liter of air or milliliter of medium over time (Figure 1B). The half-lives of SARS-CoV-2 and SARS-CoV-1 were similar in aerosols, with median estimates of approximately 1.1 to 1.2 hours and 95% credible intervals of 0.64 to 2.64 for SARS-CoV-2 and 0.78 to 2.43 for SARS-CoV-1 (Figure 1C, and Table S1 in the Supplementary Appendix). The half-lives of the two viruses were also similar on copper. On cardboard, the half-life of SARS-CoV-2 was longer than that of SARS-CoV-1. The longest viability of both viruses was on stainless steel and plastic; the estimated median half-life of SARS-CoV-2 was approximately 5.6 hours on stainless steel and 6.8 hours on plastic (Figure 1C). Estimated differences in the half-lives of the two viruses were small except for those on cardboard (Figure 1C). Individual replicate data were noticeably “noisier” (i.e., there was more variation in the experiment, resulting in a larger standard error) for cardboard than for other surfaces (Fig. S1 through S5), so we advise caution in interpreting this result.


    We found that the stability of SARS-CoV-2 was similar to that of SARS-CoV-1 under the experimental circumstances tested. This indicates that differences in the epidemiologic characteristics of these viruses probably arise from other factors, including high viral loads in the upper respiratory tract and the potential for persons infected with SARS-CoV-2 to shed and transmit the virus while asymptomatic.3,4 Our results indicate that aerosol and fomite transmission of SARS-CoV-2 is plausible, since the virus can remain viable and infectious in aerosols for hours and on surfaces up to days (depending on the inoculum shed). These findings echo those with SARS-CoV-1, in which these forms of transmission were associated with nosocomial spread and super-spreading events,5 and they provide information for pandemic mitigation efforts.

  • A few more facts you may find useful:



    https://www.henryschein.com/us…est-final-03.26.2020a.pdf


    I do not think this is behind a sign on requirement but I can't tell for sure.

    This is about selling to medical service providers, not the public but hopefully that will follow soon. It will look like an ordinary pregnancy test except you will need to get blood from your finger tip and insert it into the test strip device. No electronics required. Entirely molecular biology and chemistry.

    • Official Post

    Like so many others, these national leaders do not appear to understand exponential increase, and what happens when cases double every 3 days, from 362 to 562.


    A few weeks ago when I wrote here that senior Japanese politicos would not listen to the scientific advice you said I was wrong. I based that on what the sensible ones were telling me at the time and what happened at Fukushima. (different problem, different party in charge but the same 'we know best' attitude.)

  • Either remdesivir is not very effective for severe COVID-19 or it needs an added medication or the dose was not optimal. Uncontrolled study. I think studies with a control group are being done but take longer.


    https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2007016?query=RP


    Here is an article today with a semi-positive spin on it. Perhaps it can be added to a cocktail with some other anti-virals.


    https://www.bloomberg.com/news…ed-on-gilead-s-remdesivir

  • A few weeks ago when I wrote here that senior Japanese politicos would not listen to the scientific advice you said I was wrong. I based that on what the sensible ones were telling me at the time and what happened at Fukushima. (different problem, different party in charge but the same 'we know best' attitude.)

    Bureaucrats doing what they do best,


    “Bureaucrating”?

  • A few weeks ago when I wrote here that senior Japanese politicos would not listen to the scientific advice you said I was wrong.


    I was wrong! But it is very strange, because they listened for weeks. The situation was under control. There were interviews with the expert team of epidemiologists in charge of the effort. It seemed the government was giving them all the support and cooperation they asked for. Yet all of sudden, about a week ago, things began to fall apart and the national government has responded with the kind of idiotic delays the governments of Italy and U.S. did. Now they are talking about doing something on Monday, "after due consideration." The gov. of Tokyo has taken action. Other cities and prefectures are pleading for a national law imposing restrictions, or at least giving local authorities emergency powers.


    Instead of acting, Abe and the others are dithering and arguing about whether to leave restaurants and barber shops open. They just now announced that restaurants will have to close by 8 p.m. As if a virus cannot infect someone before 8! They are talking about voluntary cooperation to reduce exposure.

    • Official Post

    Another, new study out by the now famous French Dr. Raoult. BOLD is from article:


    https://techstartups.com/2020/…ine-with-91-success-rate/


    "From March 3rd to April 9th, 2020, 59,655 specimens from 38,617 patients were tested for COVID-19 by PCR. Of the 3,165 positive patients placed in the care of our institute, 1061 previously unpublished patients met our inclusion criteria. Their mean age was 43.6 years old and 492 were male (46.4%). No cardiac toxicity was observed. A good clinical outcome and virological cure was obtained in 973 patients within 10 days (91.7%). Prolonged viral carriage at completion of treatment was observed in 47 patients (4.4%) and was associated to a higher viral load at diagnosis (p < 10-2) but viral culture was negative at day 10 and all but one were PCR-cleared at day 15. A poor outcome was observed for 46 patients (4.3%); 10 were transferred to intensive care units, 5 patients died (0.47%) (74-95 years old) and 31 required 10 days of hospitalization or more. Among this group, 25 patients are now cured and 16 are still hospitalized (98% of patients cured so far). Poor clinical outcome was significantly associated to older age (OR 1.11), initial higher severity (OR 10.05) and low hydroxychloroquine serum concentration. In addition, both poor clinical and virologicaloutcomes were associated to the use of selective beta-blocking agents and angiotensin II receptor blockers (P<0.05). Mortality was significantly lower in patients who had received > 3 days of HCQ-AZ than in patients treated with other regimens both at IHU and in all Marseille public hospitals (p< 10-2). Interpretation


    "The HCQ-AZ combination, when started immediately after diagnosis, is a safe and efficient treatment for COVID-19, with a mortality rate of 0.5%, in elderly patients. It avoids worsening and clears virus persistence and contagiosity in most cases."

  • Increased risk of using heart failure/arrest with..HCQ +Azithromycin(AZM)

    Both HCQ and AZM prolong the QT interval.

    However when HCQ is used with another drug(sulfasalazine which does not prolong the QT interval)

    there is no increased risk of heart failure/arrest


    Large retrospective study of rheumatoid arthritis users of HCQ ( not COVID patients)

    medrxiv https://www.medrxiv.org/conten…04.08.20054551v1.full.pdf


    Worryingly, significant risks are identified for combination users of HCQ+AZM even in the short-term as
    proposed for COVID19 management, with a 15-20% increased risk of angina/chest pain and heart failure,
    and a
    two-fold risk of cardiovascular mortality in the first month of treatment.


    Which is probably why ICU drs withdraw HCQ/CQ from patients who started to show QT elongation on their ECG's


    The question is how long after ceasing AZR (after a warning ECG ) does it take to reduce the drug levels below toxic levels..

    If it takes days... then Azithromycin use may be very unwise..

    Something for the ICU doctors to solve..


  • angiotensin II receptor blockers


    Co-use of arbs (sartans) for hypertension correlates badly with recovery,,) arbs are much worse than other BP meds)

    but not so much co-use of metformin..

    perhaps there is a case for ceasing sartans if one is at risk..of getting Covid..



    https://www.mediterranee-infec…ebsite_IHU_09_04_2020.pdf


    the plasma concentrations of HCQ of 0.25µg/ml 0.75 nano molar look to be way below toxicity levels..

    no mention of QT elongation... probably a small %.. insignificant??

    but HCQ must be given early..


    Vive le Dr Raoult... not bureaucrating from home..

  • Large retrospective study of rheumatoid arthritis users of HCQ ( not COVID patients)

    medrxiv https://www.medrxiv.org/conten…04.08.20054551v1.full.pdf

    This is very impressive and complex study. It will take time to evaluate. One issue is based on the article linked below which concludes:


    Quote

    New study of antibiotic users shows no extra risk of ventricular arrhythmia for current azithromycin users than for current users of amoxicillin.


    https://www.pharmaceutical-jou…7.article?firstPass=false


    Many if not most patients stricken with COVID-19 with appreciable lung involvement should get an antibiotic to prevent overgrowth with bacteria. This might as well be azithromycin and often would be regardless of cardiac risk. The exception would be maybe people with a history of ventricular arythmias and especially those with clearly prolonged QTc (QT interval corrected for heart rate). Other patients could be monitored with daily EKG's if ambulatory or continuous monitoring if hospitalized.


    There is also an issue with how the results are stated. For example the incidence of one adverse effect is said to be doubled. That isn't the right issue. The absolute occurrence is. That's because doubling a very low incidence won't matter. Doubling an appreciab;le incidence will. I suppose the actual incidence of adverse effects is there. I have not yet studied the paper yet. It is very impressive because of the gigantic quantity of records reviewed.

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