-It seems incredible to me that we are not equally as interested in the effects of the lockdown on lives and livelihoods as we are in the actual virus itself.
That is an absurd thing to say. Of course we are interested in that! Of course we are concerned about that. Here's the point that you seem to be missing. Once again, let me spell it out.
The natural increase in the coronavirus -- absent a lock down OR extensive testing, monitoring and quarantine -- is to double every 3 days. That has been shown in several different countries. In the U.S. there were 32,000 new cases yesterday. A nice binary number. Suppose we end the lock-down today. The U.S. does not have adequate testing, and there are no groups of people monitoring the disease except in Massachusetts. So, the second option is not available to us, any more than it is available in India or a sub-Saharan African country. We are in a third-world status when it comes to controlling this disease. So, this is what must happen if we end the lockdown:
April 18, 32,000 new cases
April 21, 64,000 cases
April 27, 128,000 cases
April 30, 512,000 cases
May 3, 1,024,000 cases
May 6, 2,048,000 cases
May 9, 4,096,000 cases
The last day alone will cause 123,000 deaths within 2 weeks (3% because hospitals will be overwhelmed). And ~100,000 more deaths every day for weeks. This would quickly lead to the collapse of food supplies, garbage collection and other essential services. Police departments would fail, as thousand of police officers be sick or died. There would be thousand of uncollected corpses in houses and on the streets.
Do you think this cannot happen? This did happen, in 1918, adjusting for the size of the population. The police and nurses discovered houses full dead people. Thousands of policemen died.
DO YOU UNDERSTAND? This is what we must face if the lockdown ends today, with no substantial testing and no monitoring in place. Of course, people will go back to a lockdown on their own long before the daily total reaches a million, but this time, the lockdown will continue for months. It will destroy the U.S. to an extent not seen since the Great Depression. The suffering will be far more widespread and worse than it is now.
This is where Trump and other national leaders have left us. With no alternative to a lockdown. No Plan B. No testing or monitoring, now, or anytime in the coming weeks. If we were going to have testing and monitoring at the end of this month, hundreds of thousands of people, both paid and volunteer, would have to be in training today, already, in preparation. Nothing like that is happening, except in Massachusetts. It may soon begin in New York.
