Covid-19 (WuFlu) News

  • It appears that in the US, the protests are encouraged by some of the dumbest, creepiest, least informed, slimiest, nut case bozoes like the raving lunatic (watch him on Youtube sometime) Alex Jones:

    "Protesting for the Right to Catch Coronavirus" in the (fake, LOL) New York Times. https://www.nytimes.com/2020/0…virus-trump-protests.html


    Edited to remove sarcastic reference.


    Quote

    Few demonstrate this movement better than Alex Jones of Infowars — one of the key figures of Saturday’s “You Can’t Close America” rally on the steps of the Capitol building in Austin, Tex. For decades, Mr. Jones has built a thriving media empire harnessing (real and understandable) fear, paranoia and rage, which in turn drive sales of vitamin supplements and prepper gear in his personal store. The Infowars strategy is simple: Instill a deep distrust in all authority, while promoting a seductive, conspiratorial alternate reality in which Mr. Jones, via his outlandish conspiracies, has all the answers. He’s earned the trust of a non-trivial number of Americans, and used it to stoke his ego and his bank account. And he never lets reality get in the way (case in point, holding a stay-at-home order protest in Texas the day after the state announced it would begin efforts to carefully reopen in coming weeks).


    Former employees have described Mr. Jones to me as master of manipulating the truth into a convenient worldview in which Infowars and its listeners are constantly victimized by powerful institutional forces. “We kept saying ‘We’re the underdogs’ — that was our mantra,” one former employee told me in 2017. To make this work, Mr. Jones molds the day’s news into conspiratorial fables.

  • I agree on your points except 4. Only the tested cases were classified as Covid-19. This on the contrary left out of the statistics many deaths for which there were no means nor time to test.


    Lack of working healthcare yes, in spite of Lombardy being the best equipped region in Italy. But the spread was so exponentially fast that they had to prioritize who would get cured and sacrificed the elderly and those with little chance of survival. I am afraid the same applied to NYC and it definitely was the case in Wuhan.


    Finally yes, serology tests are key. Many kits are proving reliable, fast and very low cost, and massive testing will be the real weapon to understand and control the problem

  • Not to be a downer, but I think a bigger part of the story in the coming weeks will be the chronic health problems many people are left with who got sick from the virus. This article outlines them. There are also reports now of Doctors in several places scrambling for dialysis machines because of kidney failure:


    https://www.jpost.com/health-s…-body-doctors-fear-625099


    This (e.g. severe lung damage) is nothing new and has been communicated by Japanese doctors - involved in the avigan study - already a month ago. If you start treatment (to) late then live can turn bad. Side effects can be seen as follow up of any illness. Just telling shocking stories is either tactics to influence the dumb reader or to make money with sensational news. After two weeks of intubation you do not luckily survive anyway...


    Only a serious aftermath study - yes you have to wait at least a year - will show whether we have more side effects than e.g. after a flue.


    Most RNA (herpes, aids etc.) virus can stay in your body - (reverse) encoded in your DNA. Such left overs form a huge part of the so call junk DNA. But more clever virus (measles, chicken pocks) hide along more or less inert tissues. If your immune system gets weaker, age >70 then these might reoccur. In case of chicken pocks/ shingles even much earlier. But we live with corona since ever, just not with the new "creative" version .. - containing some AIDS add-ons and a lab marker ...

  • And in SoCal, the intellectual level of the protests is always rising. For example, in the SDUT newspaper's blog:


    Quote

    Crista Curtis, a Cardiff resident who organized Sunday’s protest, said “the last straw” for her was when Encinitas last week closed the Coastal Rail Trail, a popular walking path.

    She said she organized the protest mainly to call for the reopening of beaches and trails, but she also thinks more businesses should be allowed to reopen, such as beauty salons.

    “I can’t get my eyebrows waxed one-on-one? I can’t get my nails done,” she said. “I don’t see the point of all businesses being closed.”

    Several protesters said they view the closures as an infringement on their freedom.


    Yes. Sure. Let's let people die so you can get your eyebrows waxed, Crista.

    https://www.sandiegouniontribu…rus-live-updates-april-16


    Edited to remove spurious sarcasm. It's important to know a large number of Americans think like this.

  • Yes. Sure. Let's let people die so you can get your eyebrows waxed, Crista.


    Sorry for the joke: What is a blonde doing one step ahead of a clip? -- Just checking the lips color... (.. in her pocket mirror covering the eyes..)


    Or what did Robert Altman say in one of his famous fun movies? A healthy body delivers a healthy cadaver... Or in the case above: If you go to death than pretty as usual or may be you have to watch Brazil (with famous Robert De Niro) once more!

  • Not to be a downer, but I think a bigger part of the story in the coming weeks will be the chronic health problems many people are left with who got sick from the virus.


    Yup. As I said, a common theme in the 1920s was people who were never the same after the Spanish flu. They had respiratory problems and difficulty climbing stairs for the rest of their lives.


    A lot of young people seem to think that because their mortality rate is 0.1, compared to 3.6% for people age 60, they have nothing to worry about. They have a lot to worry about! Not just death, but coughing up blood for weeks or months after recovering. Or having your leg amputated, as noted.


    This is a very serious disease. Not like a bad cold. More like getting hit by a Mack truck.

  • This is the state of affairs currently in the US (linear on top, log on the bottom).

    I just watched a long interview with Dr. John Ioannidis of Stanford University- some what of an iconoclast and author of "Why Most Research Findings Are Wrong." He advocates for a reasonable plan to allow less vulnerable members of the society, as determined by age, essential occupation and later immune status, go back to work. It sounds reasonable but we all know that once significant lockdowns are reversed, a lot of people will disregard all or most of the restrictions. The current rate if infection and death is seen below for the USA. What will happen to it if restrictions are significantly eased? Do we really want to find out absent adequate testing of either active virus shedding or immune antibodies? And absent any vaccine or proven effective medication?


    Plots: https://www.worldometers.info/…utm_campaign=homeAdUOA?Si

    usa-covid-cases-and-deaths-linear.jpg





    usa-covid-cases-and-deaths-log.jpg

  • I just watched a long interview with Dr. John Ioannidis of Stanford University- some what of an iconoclast and author of "Why Most Research Findings Are Wrong."


    The first ideas to fully contain the virus are mot since quite some time now. People have to learn to live with this new threat.


    Compared to other diseases SARS/MERS we had quite some luck as we could identify some medication that works pretty well. We also do have reliable live test for mass testing in the millions. The full antibody test of Roche that tests both signals (the early infection response and the long time IGg after 4 weeks) will be available in early May. It work the same way (fully automated) as the current live test. Currently it runs in Germany only as its developed in the German branch.

    Novartis got the official CDC OK to do a HCQ study in the US with 440 participants. A bit late and hopefully not the same idiot way with just only HCQ....


    Testlinks: https://pharmafield.co.uk/phar…w-covid-19-antibody-test/

    https://www.pharmalive.com/roc…-19-antibody-test-system/


    Today Germany, France and some other European countries start to ease some lockdown restrictions and are reopening a large number of shops. Switzerland will follow in a week.


    But the mask discussion is going on. May be wearing a mask is just a good reminder to control the distance as there is more new evidence that the virus also does spread airborne without droplets. This would be good thing as the consequence would be - in most cases - a low initial dose infection.


    I hope that people can agree soon on the only adequate measures possible: Fully protect the vulnerable (as said by Ioannidis) - provide early medication/treatment after first symptoms and the duty to self isolate (at least 10 days) in case you have symptoms even if it is just a cold!!


    Whether wearing masks or washing your hands to often is counterproductive in the long, we need to find out during the next 4 weeks - based on antibody test to identify low does proliferation paths.

    (Of course for medical or caring personal there are different rules!)

  • He advocates for a reasonable plan to allow less vulnerable members of the society, as determined by age, essential occupation and later immune status, go back to work.


    I saw an interview with one of the people who make the healtdata.org website (https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america). He brought up something I have not read elsewhere: the reservoir of active, contagious cases is an issue. Everyone knows the daily total new cases is an important parameter. To contain the virus, you cannot have more new cases than field workers can monitor and trace. You cannot have many new cases that come from unknown sources. (That is the problem they have had in Japan in recent weeks, which is why their containment started to fail.)


    Here is what I mean by "reservoir:" a large number of sick and still-contagious people, in hospitals, or at home. This person thought the total in the U.S. should be less than ~100,000 before social distancing can be eased. It takes 2 or 3 weeks for patients to become non-contagious and safe for nurses and family members to be around without protection. The total active cases in the U.S. is 653,000 (Worldmeters). That seems like a lot, but the half-life of a contagious active case is 2 weeks, so once the epidemic comes under control and the number of infections per active case falls well below 1, the number of active cases should fall rapidly.

  • The first ideas to fully contain the virus are mot since quite some time now. People have to learn to live with this new threat.


    Not true. The virus is almost fully contained in China, Korea and Taiwan. It was almost fully contained in Japan until a few weeks ago, and it may soon be again. South Korea reports ~10 new cases per day, and they have the most extensive testing per capita of any country in the world, so there are virtually no hidden cases. If there were many hidden cases, you would see more new cases popping up, and large fluctuations in the daily new cases.


    There is no need for people in first-world countries to live with this new threat. The only reason we have live with it is because our political leaders are incompetent fools who do not understand the first thing about science.

  • Not true. The virus is almost fully contained in China, Korea and Taiwan.


    This is only true of south Korea (+ Taiwan) that lucky did start with a single huge cluster infection and never passed over the threshold to reach the uncontrolled stage. Do not believe the Chinese reporting as deep sources say these simple do not report cases of other regions for political reasons.


    Japan crossed the line of a controllable infection weeks ago, because they allowed free partying karaoke etc. among the younger that very often show no symptoms but do spread. Singapur already is a mess, but they also do not report because mostly working slaves are affected...


    For the rest of the world the idea of a full containment is mot especially for the USA. Or do you really want to live in a third world country soon ??

  • There is no need for people in first-world countries to live with this new threat. The only reason we have live with it is because our political leaders are incompetent fools who do not understand the first thing about science.



    Population of Germany : 81.4 million

    Population of US : 365 million


    Number of cases Germany : 145,800

    Number of cases in US : 770,564


    Number of deaths Germany : 4,648

    Number of deaths US : 41,114


    Percent of German Population infected : .17%

    Percent of US population infected : .21%


    Mortality rate of infected Germany : 3.2%

    Mortality rate of infected US : 3.2%


    For all the accolades placed on Ms. Merkel on this blog about being a trained scientist, understanding and following science and all the shit being placed on a certain leader in the US, it does not seem much difference if being accomplished by that learned and stellar leader! Perhaps she has to deal with a political climate as well? You think?

    Not much difference at all, especially considering the VAST difference in complexity and size of the two countries.


    Remember, in the US, it is the GOVERNORS and state legislature that control medical disciplines. NOT the POTUS.

    You have 50 governors and 50 state legislatures to piss on here. However, I will still take our system of democracy over any in the world. As they say... if you don't like it, then run for office, move to China or quit complaining! Stick to constructive criticisms.


    Arm chair quarter backs not needed. Try getting out and running a private business today, with your life savings invested, now at risk of losing everything you have worked for over years and years and your future at stake... along with other employees welfare in mind.... yes including their health safety. You views might very well change. I can say this because I AM doing this... or at least trying to survive during this time.


    Those who have not been affected by this pandemic (tenured and retired with pensions) have a tendency to view from a very simplistic view point.


    Life is not simple. No matter what the graphs say!


    Want a good indication of how absurd and political this has become.....!


    https://www.nbcnews.com/news/n…against-humanity-n1178501


    But I am sure some here would think this a good idea. :/

  • Mortality rate of infected Germany : 3.2%

    Mortality rate of infected US : 3.2%


    During the whole lock down phase mortality will go up. The New York figure is now at 7%. The German figure doubled too. But such figures tell nothing as we don't know the real number of affected, the number of immune people not even showing antibodies, hidden mortality e.g. in care homes etc..


    Winner is the country that survives not the country with the lowest mortality, but this might be the same one (e.g. Taiwan..).

  • ry getting out and running a private business today, with your life savings invested, now at risk of losing everything you have worked for over years and years and your future at stake... along with other employees welfare in mind.... yes including their health safety. You views might very well change. I can say this because I AM doing this... or at least trying to survive during this time.


    It must be tough. My sympathies to what you are having to go through. Too bad we don't see more human interest reporting on what those on the other side of the story must endure. The media instead focuses almost all it's attention on those getting sick, and you are a distraction away from that narrative. Until they feel reporting on those like yourself gets better ratings than death counts, and their public shaming campaign against those not fully complying with the distancing, few will hear of your plight.


    Fox News is starting to show a little more balance, but for the others, I do not expect change anytime soon. As you said, this has become almost all political, and we know what that means.

  • Mortality rate in US is 5,2% based on these numbers, not 3,2%...but different to Germany the infection rate seems about to peak now in the US while Germany is on its way down since a week...


    Since testing and therefore how many cases are recorded is very variable across countries it is not at all easy to compare mortality rates, even well after the epidemic when most of those who will die have died (in the middle the mortality rates appear much lower, and of course comparisons don't work because countries are at different stages in epidemic).


    Eventually we will have accurate data for total number of infections based on antibody tests. Then we can compute real mortality rates an compare.


    The correct comparison benchmark for country's success in dealing with this - total deaths per million - will be dominated by total infection rate. With China, Taiwan doing much better than most western countries and just a few countries: Iceland, New Zealand - leading the world. (Iceland unusual in that it gets very low mortality from good shielding as well as low infection rate).

  • Mortality rate in US is 5,2% based on these numbers, not 3,2%...but different to Germany the infection rate seems about to peak now in the US while Germany is on its way down since a week...

    Thanks for the correction. Thumbs on the calculator and not taking time to double check.

    I still feel comfortable with my point. :thumbup: