Covid-19 News

  • What do you think about the RT-PCR primers used for Covid - and the potential for false positives?
    Is there any good literature we can read on this?

  • fabrice DAVID Your new rapid low temperature test sounds really encouraging, so it can be used by anyone without sending it to a lab? Is it possible to develop a test which will detect all the coronavirus variants because they have a high rate of mutation (by identifying non mutating, stable RNA regions which are common to all the bat coronavirus sub-species)?:)

    Comparing to other RNA viruses, SARS-COV 19 is rather stable. But you are right: it is better to target the more stable region of the genome. It is easiest with two palindromic primesr than with six

    .

  • Just for the CoV-19 panic brothers.


    Germany excess mortality in August 2020 CoV-19: 0 Heat wave : 4000 about the same all CoV-19 deaths so far...


    Why the hack do some people still panic??

    The excess death numbers are different across countries due to different accounting. I am looking at free capacity at ICUs. And ,while it is far form being full in Ontario, it started to fill up past couple of weeks. In Ukraine some hospitals are 100% full and have to re-allocate and add extra beds. And that is not even a peak of flu season yet

  • The excess death numbers are different across countries due to different accounting. I am looking at free capacity at ICUs. And ,while it is far form being full in Ontario, it started to fill up past couple of weeks

    Yes cases in Ontario are climbing. Two percent of Covid tests are positive now in Toronto.

    Still, ICU admissions for Covid in Ontario are still far below what they were in April. However, back in April people were avoiding the hospitals so there were plenty of free beds for Covid patients. Now, we are getting caught up in a backlog of treating other medical issues, and there are not many beds free for Covid cases.

    At least they are finding that schools in Ontario do not represent a major source of infection and have decided to keep them open.

  • Germany excess mortality in August 2020 CoV-19: 0 Heat wave : 4000 about the same all CoV-19 deaths so far...


    Why the hack do some people still panic??

    The situation in Germany, Japan, Korea and some other countries is good. Nothing to panic about. In New Zealand, the virus has once again been eliminated, so for now they do not even need to wear masks. In other countries, however, the pandemic is out of control. It is killing a thousand or more people a day. In the U.S. At this rate, it will kill another 100,000 people by early next year. Hundreds of thousands more will suffer "long haul" problems that may last a lifetime. That is something to panic about.


    In other words, what you say is similar to saying, "forests are not burning in Pennsylvania so why should we worry about global warming?" Answer: because they are burning in California. You are pointing to where there is no problem and claiming that means there is no problem anywhere else. This makes no sense.

  • last week models released by Ontario showed that hospitals will be able to handle inflow even in the worst case scenario. Then Quebec shut everything in Montreal. Now Ontario leadership is under pressure to follow with more restrictions. Even as ICU numbers are decent.

  • The Swiss data of today: https://www.srf.ch/news/schwei…ona-zahlen-in-der-schweiz >= 1171 new cases (8.5 mio.)


    Zürich data https://github.com/openZH/covi…ahlen_Kanton_ZH_total.csv steep decline in hospital load! (1.45 mio.)


    The hot spot is Geneva/French part.

    Other Swiss data


    "Fully referenced facts about Covid-19, provided by experts in the field, to help our readers make a realistic risk assessment."


    https://swprs.org/facts-about-covid-19/


    “The only means to fight the plague is honesty.” (Albert Camus, 1947)

  • Yes cases in Ontario are climbing. Two percent of Covid tests are positive now in Toronto.

    Still, ICU admissions for Covid in Ontario are still far below what they were in April. However, back in April people were avoiding the hospitals so there were plenty of free beds for Covid patients. Now, we are getting caught up in a backlog of treating other medical issues, and there are not many beds free for Covid cases.

    At least they are finding that schools in Ontario do not represent a major source of infection and have decided to

    keep them open.

    Feb-Aug numbers (a little less than 6 months) from the government site. Indicates excess deaths of 350 in Ontario. Quebec as the location of 65% of the excess deaths, and the locale of the brutal homes where people weren't being fed properly, were stuck in beds with full diapers, and of course no Vitamin D.


    Oh, approximate opiod deaths in Ontario was about 400 so banning opiods would actually have saved more lives that the 350 taken by Covid. If WHO is right, then up to 10% of Ontario or 1.45million people have been infected. I bet it isn't that high. Even at 1million, that would correspond to an excess mortality rate of 0.035%.


    But you know, this calls for mandatory mass vaccination.



  • "Fully referenced facts about Covid-19, provided by experts in the field, to help our readers make a realistic risk assessment."


    https://swprs.org/facts-about-covid-19/

    Wiki : https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Swiss_Propaganda_Research

    I did follow a few of their links and found them valid ... eg

    Moreover, in many cases it is not clear whether these people really died from Covid-19 or from weeks of extreme stress and isolation.

    links to https://www.theguardian.com/wo…-infections-research-says


    as always ... Caveat lectorem !

  • Well said! Caveat lectorem:


    https://swprs.org/wikipedia-disinformation-operation/


    https://principia-scientific.c…ite-fails-psi-fact-check/


  • Navid, there is a case to be made for saying that COVID deaths should be counted like other deaths, and that lots of people die of other things.


    There is no case to be made for incorrect figures based on wrong assumptions.


    You are assuming that excess deaths (all cause) from COVID are the same as COVID deaths.


    Wrong.


    Ontario has 2997 COVID deaths, not 350, and 57681 cases. That is 5% CFR and a typical 0.6% IFR looks pretty plausible - the ratio (here about 8) depends on how many infections are picked up as cases. (And the COVID death count could be an under-estimate, see below).


    https://www.publichealthontari…-summary-report.pdf?la=en


    The lockdown or semi-lockdown measures that reduce COVID deaths also can reduce deaths from other causes (Flu, fights, traffic accidents) so excess deaths are a complex indicator. But in this case I don't know where Navid gets his 350 from:


    While much of the excess deaths in the first two months of the pandemic were mostly in line with the number of deaths being attributed to the novel coronavirus, there were still more deaths than normal during this period, StatCan said. Some of them could be indirectly attributed to the pandemic, including missing a treatment or other medical appointment due to the lock down. It was also possible that some deaths were a result of individuals having COVID-19 but were not tested or treated, especially in the early stages of the outbreak, the agency said.


    Quebec saw 2,636 more deaths than normal between the weeks ending March 28 to May 2, 504 more than the 2,132 COVID-19-related deaths the province reported. From the week ending May 9 to June 6, however, Quebec reported 1,837 more deaths than normal, even as it reported 2,834 COVID-19 deaths. The agency said that one possible explanation for this anomaly was that older or more vulnerable populations who would normally be at higher risk of dying regardless of a pandemic, were hit harder than most during the height of the COVID-19 outbreak.

    https://www.ctvnews.ca/health/…ke-statcan-says-1.5083280


    In addition:


    Navid said: If WHO is right, then up to 10% of Ontario or 1.45million people have been infected.


    You don't give a source for this and I don't believe it.


    How about 1.1% infected, which is a fact, known from Ontario seroprevalence surveys


    I'd like to point out to everyone that Navid's weird comments here are perfectly rational. He has as input errors - in this case infection rates X9 of what seroprevalence says they are, and death rates 8X lower than the actually are. A total error of 1/70 in death rate from COVID. So it is not surprising he sees it as less of a problem than most people.


    It is also not surprising that this large numerical error is liked by Toffoli and Mark U who seem generally to like things that support their conspriracy-fueled anti-vax views. But such widespread innumeracy is rather depressing.


    THH

  • Most critical content of wikipedia today is maintained by paid (industry, politics, think tanks) trolls. So for politics opinion (medical facts) etc. wiki is the wrong place for truth. For math physics its OK.

    I found no errors in their fact list. Of course all right wing people including the FRJM mafia hate them as e.g. some of their exponents present the truth for the WTC building 7 blow off by placed explosives.


    If they are rated as a conspiracy site then the presented site information must be precise and dangerous for many folks. So highly recommended!


  • I see you are still lurking these waters, and spinning. The first spin was suggesting I said Covid deaths = Excess deaths. I never said excess mortality rate = IFR or CFR. That was the second spin. For the WHO reference type that into Google and you will see it come up immediately.


    Your argumentation was void from the first spin and nullifies everything you said all the way to the "weird comments." Yes there is room for debate but this is not what debate looks like...

  • In general, the LAMP isothermal nucleic acid amplification tests work better and faster with multiple primer pairs; and I would be VERY suspicious of the specificity of such a reaction operating at low temperatures (and I'm not aware of any DNA polymerases that operate efficiently at such temperatures. LAMP generally uses the Bst polymerase at 60+ deg C. Then again, I don't know everything, and haven't been in a PCR or LAMP lab for some years now)

    The reasons for using higher temperatures are related to stringency of primer binding, and the optimum temperature for the polymerase used - but PRIMARILY for the binding stringency. DNA and oligonucleotides are the very devil for non-specific binding at low temperatures; and of course ANY binding of a primer to a DNA sequence will set off a reaction

    And yes, I have helped develop a number of LAMP tests, now used commercially. Each has its optimum conditions, and even small departures from these (Mg++ concentration, primer sequences and concentrations, dNTP concentrations, reaction temperature, polymerase concentration, you name it) are just begging for non-specific reactions. These things are ALWAYS a balancing act between sensitivity (number of DNA or RNA targets detectable) and specificity,

    At their best LAMP-based NAATs are very fast, sensitive, and specific; and need require no expensive readers or thermocyclers, They are also much less sensitive to many of the inhibitors found in clinical samples, and sometimes need no more nucleic acid extraction/purification than a simple boiling step to lyse infected cells and virus particles and release the virus DNA or RNA

    Complete reaction mixes can be supplied freeze-dried, needing only to be reconstituted with sample extract in appropriate buffer, and heated. Freeze-dried reaction mixes can be made by the million in beaded form. I know this because I was responsible for the formulation and validation of the first ever freeze-drying formulations for LAMP tests.

    A long time ago now, as these things go.

  • Navid said: If WHO is right, then up to 10% of Ontario or 1.45million people have been infected.


    You don't give a source for this and I don't believe it.


    How about 1.1% infected, which is a fact, known from Ontario seroprevalence surveys

    WHO's 10 percent number may well be an underestimate.


    In Ontario, about 1 percent were found to have antibodies to Covid in the blood. However, that was in June. We are now in October and that number is probably at least doubled. So 2 percent.

    Studies have shown that seroprevalence (antibodies to Covid in the blood) alone underestimates antibody response, perhaps 5 fold. Read this carefully, from https://www.bmj.com/content/370/bmj.m3364


    Serum IgA antibody responses may be detectable earlier than IgG and IgM responses1617 and can persist for at least 38 days in hospital patients recovering from covid-19.18 This is consistent with a recent Cochrane review, which found that IgA based serological testing had greater sensitivity than other methods.5 A recent seroprevalence survey of 1473 residents (79% of the local population) in Ischgl, Austria, using a combined IgG and IgA approach found SARS-CoV-2 antibodies in 42.4% of those tested, far higher than rates in previous population based surveys of other infection hotspots.19 Similarly, IgA antibodies were detected in 11% of 1862 people sampled from the general population in Luxembourg, whereas IgG antibodies were found in only 1.9%.20

    Finally, mucosal and bloodborne immune responses may provide complementary information crucial for accurate assessment of viral exposure in both individuals and populations. In a cross sectional study of UK healthcare workers, combined IgG, IgA, and IgM testing for SARS-Cov-2 spike protein in saliva samples identified 15% of participants as positive despite a negative serum test result.4


    So increase the 2 percent fivefold to 10 percent.

    The above is for people who generated an antibody response. What proportion of people are infected, and their T cell cross immunity (among other things) protects them, without a need to even get to the antibody production stage?

    So increase the 10 percent at least twofold, and we have the number of infected at over 20 percent.

    Now, perhaps at least half of the people very lightly exposed to the virus even progress to what may be termed infection. So perhaps at least 40 percent of the population in Toronto may have already been exposed to the virus and are immunologically primed to defend against another exposure.