Covid-19 News

  • Measured by every relevant metric, and reported by every major health agency in the world, such as the American Public Health Association. The U.S. is ranked somewhere around 25 to 30.


    If life expectancy and infant mortality are not measures of health, and healthcare, what do they measure? Surely they measure healthcare in the larger sense, including public health and education, which are essential to good health. Anyway, if you don't like those metrics, use any of the other common ones, from the American Public Health Association:

    • Shorter lives — over the past 25 years, U.S. life expectancy has grown, but at a lower rate than in other countries.
    • Bad birth outcomes — we have the highest rates of infant mortality, low birth weight, women dying due to complications of pregnancy and childbirth and children less likely to live to age 5.
    • More injuries and homicides — deaths from motor vehicle crashes, non-transportation injuries and violence happen at much higher rates.
    • Heart disease — the U.S. death rate from ischemic heart disease is the second highest. Adults over age 50 are more likely to develop and die from cardiovascular disease.
    • Obesity and diabetes — for decades, the U.S. has had the highest obesity rate across all age groups, and American adults have high rates of diabetes.
    • Chronic lung disease — lung disease is more common and associated with higher risk for death.
    • Disability — Older U.S. adults report a higher prevalence of arthritis and limits to their daily activities.
    • Adolescent pregnancy and sexually transmitted disease — our youth have the highest rate of pregnancy and are more likely to acquire sexually transmitted diseases.
    • HIV and AIDS — we have the second highest prevalence of HIV infection and the highest incidence of AIDS.
    • Drug-related death — we lose more years of life to alcohol and other drugs even when deaths from drunk driving are excluded. In fact, the president's 2014 National Drug Control Strategy noted overdose deaths now surpass homicides and car crash deaths.

    https://www.apha.org/topics-and-issues/health-rankings



    One of the ironies here is that we tend to think in terms of the quality of interventions to help ill people, when they get ill. Unsurpassed (for those who get all of them) in the US.


    However health has always been MOSTLY about arranging society with good preventive health systems so that people don't get ill in the first place:

    • Occupational health and pollution control to reduce lung disease (big cities throughout the world have a way to go there)
    • Dietary nudges to prioritise high fibre low sugar diets
    • Town planning to encourage exercise
    • Access to local "known personally" primary care as much to deal with mental and social health as medical matters

    And this matters most for the poorest 25% of society, who have the largest burden of illness. Reduce poverty and you increase health. But, also, put in place strong preventative measures and health goes up more per dollar spent than putting money into curing those who get ill. It has become a pressing issue in the last 30 years since modern society is increasingly designed to make people obese - we have not yet found a way to change that although it should be the very highest health priority. Mobile phones (and in general screen-based leisure) don't help much!


    It is pretty obvious, and true generally, that taking better care of things pays. Unfortunately it is not glamorous, not interesting, and benefits are seen down the line so there is a big communication job for politicians to do when they spend money in this way.

  • Well done AAPS! There is definitely a case for detecting improvements in recovery rates after a state begins anti-virus therapies. I did suggest this for China itself after the massive Bayer donation of chloroquine after the 20 Feb when their stats really started to improve. Were the CP keeping this quiet? Could much larger clinical trials have been done and publicized?

  • You mean the average life expectancy of a person dying of COVID-19 would be around three weeks (or sometimes as little as two days) without the disease? Why do you and how can you believe such amazingly stupid garbage? I am guessing other people don't call you on it very often is because they are convinced there's no point to it.


    I spent quite some time in the live insurance business. So I do understand that an average doctors has no clue about what live expectance is.


    Average expected age in Switzerland 83 years. Average age of of people dying of corona is also 83 years. Thus this does not affect the current overall statistics. This is only possible if almost all people that die of corona did have a very short live expectance. E.g. here more than 50% of the deaths are from care homes where average age is far above 86 years.

    May be you once check the table about live expectance of a man at e.g 90 years.


    Now live expectance: You e.g. take all man age 90 and look how old the will get. The results usually is a Gaussian distribution. From this it is clear that the first 5 % of all aged 90 would have died within a few weeks to a few months. This is more or less exactly what we now see as a consequence of corona infections. Most of these deaths would also die the same way from a flu, or any bacterial attack etc.. Only difference with covid-19 they die within 5-25 days instead of 6 week to 6 months.

  • Another cheap de-wormer like ivermectin which might have activity against coronavirus. Albendazole has a purine-like structure so might inhibit RNA polymerase in a complementary way to avigan which screws up pyramidine base incorporation into newly formed viral RNA. A cheaper form of remdesivir?

    hepatitis c virus rna-dependent rna polymerase ns5b ...

    www.ijpbs.com › view
    PDF

    341. HEPATITIS C VIRUS RNA-DEPENDENT RNA POLYMERASE NS5B. INHIBITION POTENTIALS OF ANTI-HELMINTHIC DRUG ALBENDAZOLE. AND ITS ...

  • A very hopeful story below about scientists at Oxford believing that they are on a path to a potential vaccine. One of the scientists thinks they might even have something by the end of the year.


    Nobody with an at least 10% working brain will allow the mass usage of a new vaccine without a step wise broadening of the test base. This will not take months to do, its years. Especially after the most recent tests did show many more complications than benefits.


    And this matters most for the poorest 25% of society, who have the largest burden of illness. Reduce poverty and you increase health. But, also, put in place strong preventative measures and health goes up more per dollar spent than putting money into curing those who get ill. It has become a pressing issue in the last 30 years since modern society is increasingly designed to make people obese - we have not yet found a way to change that although it should be the very highest health priority. Mobile phones (and in general screen-based leisure) don't help much!


    As said by JED: The US over all health care system is ranked position 25-30 among the countries with a working health system. As 1/4 of the US population cannot afford medication and the rich live on the level of rank 1-5 this implies that 1/4 of the US population gets far less treatment than the most undeveloped countries on planet earth. In effect the USA has two rankings. For wealthy patients 1-5 poor 120-140.

  • ......on second thoughts albendazole is too expensive for mass prescribing. The trouble with ivermectin is that the effective dose from biochemical studies is about the same as chloroquine at 5-10 uM so we will need at least 100 mg doses not 10 mg daily. However toxicology trials in healthy voluteers have used up to 120 mg doses without adverse effects. So we will be OK using 100mg daily I guess in Anti Bat.

  • Well if Trump is opening up the US next week we are going to need quick and effective antiviral treatment ASAP. Anti Bat will work if used as a mass fever treatment at the first signs of illness. Trouble is the price of Avigan has skyrocketed, so we're left with HCQ, Dox/AZM, Zn, Ivermectin, (Sutherlandia, Angelica, Nigella, Liquorice herbals) with dietary supplements Quercetin, Coconut oil (monolaurin) Multi Vitamins + C&D + Ca.. Should work OK to lessen the viral load & hopefully enable rapid recovery. Looks like chloroquine might have anti-hemagglutinin activity too so may well prevent red blood cell clumping causing thrombosis. Keep drinking the tonic water for a basal dose of quinine!:)

    • Official Post

    https://www.spiked-online.com/…mmunity-is-costing-lives/


    Well written article on herd immunity;


    "Most anti-vaxxers are highly educated but still argue against vaccination. We now face a similar situation with ‘anti-herders’, who view herd immunity as a misguided optional strategy rather than a scientifically proven phenomenon that can prevent unnecessary deaths."


    I would add to this, that herd immunity has taken on a political component. Not sure how it got political in the middle of a pandemic, but somehow the right is now associated with the concept, while the left is aligned against. If I had to guess, I would say it evolved naturally as a reasonable tactic against the virus...until the "wrong" people jumped on board. 2 of the most prominent of those being Boris, and Trump.


    Early on, Fox News may have championed it also, which all taken together was too much for the left to handle, so they did what they always do -oppose the right, and started attacking herd immunity as somehow cruel hearted. Soon it was mentioned in the same breath as right wing conspiracy. The same thing happened to HCQ...it became associated with the conservatives, so the libs took up arms against. Anyway, back to excerpts from the article:


    "Because of its virulence, wide spread and the many asymptomatic cases it causes, Covid-19 cannot be contained in the long run, and so all countries will eventually reach herd immunity. To think otherwise is naive and dangerous."


    "The question is not whether to aim for herd immunity as a strategy, because we will all eventually get there. The question is how to minimise casualties until we get there. Since Covid-19 mortality varies greatly by age, this can only be accomplished through age-specific countermeasures. We need to shield older people and other high-risk groups until they are protected by herd immunity."


    "Among anti-herders, it is popular to compare the current number of Covid-19 deaths by country and as a proportion of the population. Such comparisons are misleading, as they ignore the existence of herd immunity. A country much closer to herd immunity will ultimately do better even if their current death count is somewhat higher. The key statistic is instead the number of deaths per infected."

  • Social engineering day #2


    Navid : You overestimate the cricket brains power: I explained it already some weeks ago and repeat it once more. A vaccine that works 60% is of almost no value. 60% means that also the 60% that seem to be protected can be carriers of the virus as we see it now too. A vaccine that works 60% implies that not enough or not enough well fitting antibodies are produced not only for the 40% where it does not work at all !! I would never take a vaccine that is below 95% for a disease that, for the majority, is as harmless as a common cold.

    This is also the reason why flu vaccination is only given to people at risk. The flu vaccination works between 50..90% depending on time, location and what strain you catch at the end.


    I certainly do recommend vaccination e.g. for Tetanus, Tuberculosis, Measles,... and other local deadly diseases like Typhus etc... But certainly not for flu and an upcoming covid-19.


    Even a vaccine that works 99.95% is no live insurance. During the last ten years I did track down all local (Germany/Switzerland) single measles event (press hyped .. ) death cases. All of the death did have Measles vaccination. Some had the old one and missed the US strain but some had no reason.


  • Aluminum cannot penetrate thick steel beams.


    QED.

    • Official Post


    Third of hospitalised Covid-19 patients in UK have died, study finds


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    James Gallagher

    Health and science correspondent, BBC News

    The biggest study of Covid-19 patients in the UK shows a third admitted to hospital have died.

    Just under half have been discharged, with the rest still being treated.

    Prof Calum Semple, the chief investigator from the University of Liverpool, said the "crude hospital fatality rate is of the same magnitude as Ebola".

    He said around 35-40% of hospitalised Ebola patients die.

    "People need to hear this... this is an incredibly dangerous disease."

    Nearly 17,000 patients from 166 hospitals were part of the study. Obesity and age both increased the risk of death.

    The study also confirmed that men are more likely to have severe disease, and the gap between outcomes for men and women gets wider with age.

  • At risk of sounding obvious, a COVID vaccine that worked 50% of time would not prevent an epidemic, but would allow suppression with distancing measures only half as good (a big deal).


    In addition, even if epidemic let rip, deaths would be reduced by 50%, pressure on health services similarly reduced.


    Practically, vaccines can provide protection by minimising severity of disease even when they do not stop people catching it. that is also a big deal.


    Does a vaccine need to be 90% to be effective against COVID? No. 80% would do. Would a vaccine 50% effective be enough to let us back to normal? Not clear, but possible, depending on how much the 50% not protected got less severe disease.

  • "People need to hear this... this is an incredibly dangerous disease."


    Oh yes less than 0.01% of infected people aged < 18 die - really dangerous ...

    Oh yes less than 0.1% of infected people aged < 65 die - really dangerous ...


    But holy shit: up to 50% of people older that 80 years with preconditions die if they get exposed.


    Now decide who you address with your warning!


    This guy is an nonsense talker as Ebola kills younger and older on equal measure. TV should prevent the emission of such fraudulent disinformation. Such a statement is purely political !!


    "Obesity and age both increased the risk of death." This statement is unethical too. In fact these are the main reasons to die and do not forget to add being male...

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