LENR vs Solar/Wind, and emerging Green Technologies.

Quote from Fm1

Although I agree on electric cars vs hybrid I see a looming problem when the us has 50 million electric cars. Can the grid handle that much consumption each night. At present, not a snowballs chance in hell.

On the contrary, the present grid could easily handle all 256 million cars in the U.S. with no expansion. I ran the numbers here before. Given the average number of miles driven per year by Americans, charging a car is like running an electric clothes dryer for an hour and forty minutes per night. If every car owner in the country did that it would put no strain on the grid because there is little use of electricity at night. Even in places where there is significant consumption at night, many houses are now equipped with smart meters that allow the power company to turn on or off major appliances, so the power company could ensure that cars are charged when there is plenty of spare capacity.

This is based on average kilowatt hours per mile with today's electric cars. That will probably improve in the future.

I can dig up the numbers but that is the gist of it.

Quote from Fm1

That puts nuke plants front and center.

Nukes would not be at all useful. They are only good for baseline power generation. You have to run them 24/7 or they lose fantastic amounts of money. Nighttime consumption is way below baseline, and electric cars would only increase it a little. Not enough to justify an increase in baseline generation capacity. Charging cars would consume more natural gas. There is a huge amount of natural gas generator capacity idle at night.

With remote control smart meters, electric cars are a perfect fit to wind energy. The power company can turn on the charger when wind picks up.

In Texas, many power companies offer free electricity at night because they have wind energy to spare. Their ads encourage people to do laundry, dry clothes, and run air conditioners at night -- for free. They could easily charge electric cars with wind alone. They make their money with fixed cost portion of the electric bill.

Quote from JedRothwell

On the contrary, the present grid could easily handle all 256 million cars in the U.S. with no expansion. I ran the numbers here before. Given the average number of miles driven per year by Americans, charging a car is like running an electric clothes dryer for an hour and forty minutes per night. If every car owner in the country did that it would put no strain on the grid because there is little use of electricity at night. Even in places where there is significant consumption at night, many houses are now equipped with smart meters that allow the power company to turn on or off major appliances, so the power company could ensure that cars are charged when there is plenty of spare capacity.

This is based on average kilowatt hours per mile with today's electric cars. That will probably improve in the future.

I can dig up the numbers but that is the gist of it.

Nukes would not be at all useful. They are only good for baseline power generation. You have to run them 24/7 or they lose fantastic amounts of money. Nighttime consumption is way below baseline, and electric cars would only increase it a little. Not enough to justify an increase in baseline generation capacity. Charging cars would consume more natural gas. There is a huge amount of natural gas generator capacity idle at night.

With remote control smart meters, electric cars are a perfect fit to wind energy. The power company can turn on the charger when wind picks up.

In Texas, many power companies offer free electricity at night because they have wind energy to spare. Their ads encourage people to do laundry, dry clothes, and run air conditioners at night -- for free. They could easily charge electric cars with wind alone. They make their money with fixed cost portion of the electric bill.

Display More

This is a little old but I'm pretty sure the same issues remain. Now the concerns will be who pays for the upgrades needed

Quote from Paradigmnoia

You can see them made by the tips of helicopter blades, at the right temperature. Just rapid condensation.

Doesn't predate WW2 observations ...

Quote from Fm1

This is a little old but I'm pretty sure the same issues remain.

What is "this"? Did you mean to attach a reference?

Quote from Fm1

Now the concerns will be who pays for the upgrades needed

No upgrades needed. You would not need upgrades if everyone decided to do more laundry every night, and run the dryer for an hour and 40 minutes. The power company would hardly notice. There might be a problem if everyone in Atlanta decided to do this at 3 p.m. on a very hot day, when air conditioning is going full blast.

Do the numbers and see for yourself. The average electric car consumes 0.346 kWh/mile. The best efficiency is the Tesla at 0.24 kWh/mile. The average U.S. automobile is driven 13,500 miles per year (US Fed. highway Admin.) That is up from previous estimates. That's 37 miles per day, which takes 12.8 kWh. A dryer uses around 6 kW, and an air conditioner 3.5 kW, so that is the equivalent to running a dryer for 2.1 hours or an air conditioner for 3.7 hours. In the dead of night everyone could do that with no strain on the power grid. Power consumption is about twice as high during the day as at night. Many people run dryers and air conditioners during the day.

When all electric cars catch up with Tesla, 37 miles will consume 8.9 kWh. I think electric cars will inevitably become even more efficient than that.

The average U.S. residential customer consumes 893 kWh per month. An electric car would add 384 kWh to that, which is substantially more (a 43% increase), but as long as it is delivered at night, it would have no effect on the grid.

It would not be a 43% increase in total electricity consumed. Residential electricity is 39% of the total. The industrial and commercial sectors consume 61% of electricity. They are mostly turned off at night. That is why electricity consumption falls by half. Also because air conditioners are less used at night when it cools, and people seldom do laundry in the dead of night. (Air conditioning and laundry are the two big residential uses of electricity, unless you have an electric water heater.)

Electricity retail sales are 12.9 quads. Residential is now 39% of that, or 5.0 quads. Increasing that by 43% would add 2.2 quads of electricity, and about 6 quads of primary energy. That is the worst case, assuming all electricity comes from fossil fuel, which is not true. 40% of it comes from wind, solar, hydro and nukes, but the EIA people compute primary energy as if it all comes from fossil fuel. (That's what their tables show, and what they told me.)

The electric power sector now consumes 36.7 quads primary energy. So this would increase to 42.7 quads primary. Delivered electricity would increase from 12.9 quads up to 15.1 quads (17%). That's 17% for all electricity, from all sectors, industrial, residential, commercial. Adding ~17% at night, when overall consumption is half of daytime use, is not a challenge.

We consume 35.1 quads of petroleum, almost all of it for automobile transportation, so that's 6 times more primary energy than electric cars would consume. They would reduce primary energy from 97.3 quads to 68.2 quads. Actually, it would reduce it more than that, because as I said, ~40 of electricity comes from wind, solar, hydro and nukes. It does not make sense to talk about primary energy with a wind turbine, but the EIA does.

SOURCES

Average Electric Car kWh Per Mile [Results From 231 EVs]

Find the average electric car kWh per 100 miles, along with the best and the worst. Plus see the costs, savings and how you can go greener.

ecocostsavings.com

What is Average Mileage Per Year?

Average mileage per year is the amount of miles motorists typically travel each year. Understanding average mileage per year helps you make smarter purchase…

www.caranddriver.com

Average power consumption by hour:

Hourly electricity consumption varies throughout the day and across seasons

Average residential power consumption:

Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs) - U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

Electric power for transportation, industrial, residential and commercial sectors:

U.S. energy facts explained - consumption and production - U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

As you see, those are very rough averages. I am assuming there is one car per house, which is not the case. Total vehicles:

"There are 276 million vehicles registered in the U.S. as of 2019. This includes 156 million trucks, 108 million cars, 8.5 million motorcycles, and 575 thousand buses."

That's 264 million trucks and cars to be charged up at home. But not all in houses. There are 140 million residences in the U.S., but many are apartments. 94 million single family homes. Many people in apartments do not have cars, whereas some single family houses have 2 or 3. It is complicated. But, anyway, it is approximately ~17% more electricity delivered to residences at night.

The average car being driven 13,500 miles is higher than previous estimates. It has been around 12,000 miles.

Here is another way to estimate total electricity consumption with electric vehicles. The Dept. of Transportation estimates total vehicle miles in 2019 was 3,261,772 million miles. This table does not break them down into trucks, cars, buses and so on. Anyway, assume they are all electric cars getting 0.346 kWh per mile (an underestimate). That would be 1,128,573,112 MWH, or 3.8 quads of electricity. Delivered electricity, not primary energy. A lot more than my previous rough estimate of 2.2 quads. As I said, delivered electricity was 12.9 quads, so that is a 29% increase. Substantially more than 17%. But still, delivered at night it could be done without upgrading the grid.

It would take a lot more natural gas fuel.

3.8 quads of electricity is 11.4 quads of primary energy, if it all comes from fossil fuel (the EIA estimate). Or, more like 6.8 quads of primary fossil fuel combustion energy, plus wind, solar, fission . . . Way less than the 35.1 quads of petroleum.

Table VM-202 - Highway Statistics 2019 - Policy | Federal Highway Administration

U.S. energy facts explained - consumption and production - U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

Interesting towing competition between a new EV and ICE pick-up truck:

How Far Can a Gas Truck & an Electric Ford Lightning Go Towing the Same Camper On ONE Fill-up? - YouTube

The EV did poorly, making it only 86 miles, and the ICE did as expected. On the plus side, it only cost $30 to recharge. Until there are some major improvements in range while pulling a load, it looks like EV trucks will be used only close to home, and close to a charging station.

Quote from JedRothwell

What is "this"? Did you mean to attach a reference?

No upgrades needed. You would not need upgrades if everyone decided to do more laundry every night, and run the dryer for an hour and 40 minutes. The power company would hardly notice. There might be a problem if everyone in Atlanta decided to do this at 3 p.m. on a very hot day, when air conditioning is going full blast.

Do the numbers and see for yourself. The average electric car consumes 0.346 kWh/mile. The best efficiency is the Tesla at 0.24 kWh/mile. The average U.S. automobile is driven 13,500 miles per year (US Fed. highway Admin.) That is up from previous estimates. That's 37 miles per day, which takes 12.8 kWh. A dryer uses around 6 kW, and an air conditioner 3.5 kW, so that is the equivalent to running a dryer for 2.1 hours or an air conditioner for 3.7 hours. In the dead of night everyone could do that with no strain on the power grid. Power consumption is about twice as high during the day as at night. Many people run dryers and air conditioners during the day.

When all electric cars catch up with Tesla, 37 miles will consume 8.9 kWh. I think electric cars will inevitably become even more efficient than that.

The average U.S. residential customer consumes 893 kWh per month. An electric car would add 384 kWh to that, which is substantially more (a 43% increase), but as long as it is delivered at night, it would have no effect on the grid.

It would not be a 43% increase in total electricity consumed. Residential electricity is 39% of the total. The industrial and commercial sectors consume 61% of electricity. They are mostly turned off at night. That is why electricity consumption falls by half. Also because air conditioners are less used at night when it cools, and people seldom do laundry in the dead of night. (Air conditioning and laundry are the two big residential uses of electricity, unless you have an electric water heater.)

Electricity retail sales are 12.9 quads. Residential is now 39% of that, or 5.0 quads. Increasing that by 43% would add 2.2 quads of electricity, and about 6 quads of primary energy. That is the worst case, assuming all electricity comes from fossil fuel, which is not true. 40% of it comes from wind, solar, hydro and nukes, but the EIA people compute primary energy as if it all comes from fossil fuel. (That's what their tables show, and what they told me.)

The electric power sector now consumes 36.7 quads primary energy. So this would increase to 42.7 quads primary. Delivered electricity would increase from 12.9 quads up to 15.1 quads (17%). That's 17% for all electricity, from all sectors, industrial, residential, commercial. Adding ~17% at night, when overall consumption is half of daytime use, is not a challenge.

We consume 35.1 quads of petroleum, almost all of it for automobile transportation, so that's 6 times more primary energy than electric cars would consume. They would reduce primary energy from 97.3 quads to 68.2 quads. Actually, it would reduce it more than that, because as I said, ~40 of electricity comes from wind, solar, hydro and nukes. It does not make sense to talk about primary energy with a wind turbine, but the EIA does.

SOURCES

https://ecocostsavings.com/ave…lectric-car-kwh-per-mile/

https://www.caranddriver.com/r…average-mileage-per-year/

Average power consumption by hour:

https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=42915

Average residential power consumption:

https://www.eia.gov/tools/faqs/faq.php?id=97&t=3

Electric power for transportation, industrial, residential and commercial sectors:

https://www.eia.gov/energyexplained/us-energy-facts/

Display More

Could Electric Cars Threaten the Grid?

Quote from Fm1

Could Electric Cars Threaten the Grid?

This article says:

A house in San Francisco might only draw two kilowatts of power at times of peak demand, according to Pacific Gas & Electric. In comparison, a new electric vehicle on a dedicated circuit could draw 6.6 kilowatts—and up to 20 kilowatts in the case of an optional home fast charger for a Tesla Model S.

That is a contrived example. It might only draw 2 kW? Sure, but not when they run the laundry machine and a microwave oven at the same time. That would be 2.4 kW. Not when they turn on the dryer. More like 6 kW. I do not think houses in San Francisco trip the street transformer when everyone washes clothes and microwaves popcorn at the same time.

Okay, so 20 kW chargers should not be allowed in old neighborhoods where the grid cannot support them. 6.6 kW should not be a problem. Or, if it is, people must be tripping the street transformer with electric dryers. Perhaps there would be a problem if everyone in the neighborhood ran the dryer, the electric car charger and the microwave oven at the same time in the middle of the day. But the whole point is to encourage most people to run the electric charger at night.

It is certainly true that if everyone gets into the habit of charging cars in the middle of the day during peak demand, that might cause problems. You can avoid that by setting variable rates with smart meters.

If they had to take steps to prevent this in old neighborhoods, I would suggests mandating the use of smart meters and remote control turn off for anyone who wants a 6.6 kW or 20 kW charger. The remote turn off does not turn off your entire house, just selected circuits. There are several rules about installing a charger in Atlanta. You cannot do it if your wiring is more than 50 years old, or if you do not have a certain level of amperage. (I don't recall how much.) I had to have my wiring upgraded, which turned out to be good thing because the old wiring was on the verge of burning the house down, as we saw when the electrician removed the panel. See:

http://www.atlantaga.gov/Home/ShowDocument?id=538

Quote from Paradigmnoia

You can see them made by the tips of helicopter blades, at the right temperature. Just rapid condensation.

Here are some examples:

External Content www.youtube.com

Content embedded from external sources will not be displayed without your consent.

Display all external content

Through the activation of external content, you agree that personal data may be transferred to third party platforms. We have provided more information on this in our privacy policy.

It is full on summer in the Netherlands, with trails persisting all day and greying out the entire sky, not some Antarctica rare thing for a minute or 2..... Please, even if it is "contrails", the sky is blocked, robbing nature of all normality such as the water cycle or the amount of Sun light, should be a real concern. instead as usual, some jus try to explain it away with some very old misconceptions.

No planes left these trails before 2007/2008 in my country, or at least very low in occurrence, So how come normal planes suddenly started doing that? No the traffic did not increase much in that period.
How come condense suddenly persists and the sky is grey?
How come this escaped the attention of the green lobby?
How come we suddenly have new types of clouds.... ?
How come my plants are suddenly dying in Summer as if they are living in Vietnam during the war and *gasp 'agent orange'?
Why the leaves of plants turn yellow in the summer, Which they never did the first 30 years of my life, a week or 2 after the "mist /drizzle rain" hits them?
How come the weather is changing? (Please spare me CO2 answer)
How come the mainstream media is scaring us to death about global warming, and all that comes with it? I have we not learned they only spew propaganda to serve their interests? (I mean really)
How come the insect population dropped by half or so?
How come free aluminum is seen in the environment? (Normally not possible!)
How come the forest are dying? (beetle is a reaction, not a cause!)
How come there are patents existing for chemtrailing, and
How come this is touted as a solution for a 'global problem' by globalist such as Gates et all?

Does this not cause the slightest feeling something may be "off" here?

But, I am sure I now fall into a category such as "anti-vaxxer" (still not sure what that means)
Should you feel the need to call names, call me "Wappie" that is the Dutch slang for Conspiracy thinking / weirdo / dangerous thinking person.

Edo - you have a gmail from me btw.

Quote from Edo

No planes left these trails before 2007/2008 in my country, or at least very low in occurrence, So how come normal planes suddenly started doing that? No the traffic did not increase much in that period.

I have no wish to join the contrail debate but the answer to your question above is I am sure due to changes in aircraft engine design philosophy to improve fuel efficiency and new designs (and aircraft) introduced from the early 2000's, Changes which have become almost universal for civil aircraft..

During this period there was a shift from using turbojet engines to using fan jets. Fan jet engines are the ones with shorter fatter nacelles - they are everywhere now as the old turbojet powered planes are retired. There's a more technical account from Wikipedia below, but basically fan jet engines move a larger volume of air (bypass air) at a lower temperature than turbojets do. This results in a bigger and cooler mass of exhaust which condenses out it's moisture (from the water produced by burning kerosene) faster than the turbojets hotter, faster and more compact exhaust does. So we get thicker contrails forming faster than before.

Ex Wikpedia on the differences...

The transfer of energy from the core to bypass air results in lower pressure and temperature gas entering the core nozzle (lower exhaust velocity) and fan-produced temperature and pressure entering the fan nozzle. The amount of energy transferred depends on how much pressure rise the fan is designed to produce (fan pressure ratio). The best energy exchange (lowest fuel consumption) between the two flows, and how the jet velocities compare, depends on how efficiently the transfer takes place which depends on the losses in the fan-turbine and fan.^[12]

The fan flow has lower exhaust velocity, giving much more thrust per unit energy (lower specific thrust). Both airstreams contribute to the gross thrust of the engine. The additional air for the bypass stream increases the ram drag in the air intake stream-tube, but there is still a significant increase in net thrust. The overall effective exhaust velocity of the two exhaust jets can be made closer to a normal subsonic aircraft's flight speed and gets closer to the ideal Froude efficiency. A turbofan accelerates a larger mass of air more slowly, compared to a turbojet which accelerates a smaller amount more quickly, which is a less efficient way to generate the same thrust (see the efficiency section below).

Quote from JedRothwell

Here is another way to estimate total electricity consumption with electric vehicles. The Dept. of Transportation estimates total vehicle miles in 2019 was 3,261,772 million miles. This table does not break them down into trucks, cars, buses and so on. Anyway, assume they are all electric cars getting 0.346 kWh per mile (an underestimate). That would be 1,128,573,112 MWH, or 3.8 quads of electricity. Delivered electricity, not primary energy. A lot more than my previous rough estimate of 2.2 quads. As I said, delivered electricity was 12.9 quads, so that is a 29% increase.

I want to emphasize that this is a very rough estimate. It could be off by a large factor. I am not trying to make an accurate estimate here. I am just pointing out that electric cars would not overwhelm the electric power company generation or distribution capacity. Okay, perhaps if you could wave a magic wand and convert every vehicle to electricity overnight, that would be a problem. In old neighborhoods in San Francisco people might have difficulty charging them. In Atlanta you would have to wait a long time before an electrician would be available to install a charger. But of course in real life it would take decades before every vehicle is electric. For one thing, people keep automobiles about eleven years on average. No one is going to rush out and buy an electric car if they had a reasonably new gasoline vehicle. So the transition will happen slowly. If generating capacity or the grid need upgrading there will be plenty of time to do this.

I have seen magazine articles saying that electric cars would overwhelm the grid because they would need even more electricity than we now generate. My estimates are very rough but I think they show that is not the case. Even if the increase is 50% rather than 29%, it still does not mean we would use all the electricity we now generate.

Adding 10 million electric cars in the next few years would not put any strain on grid, as long as most of them were charged overnight. Unless, I suppose, all 10 million were in San Francisco.

Regarding that sentence from the article above:

"A house in San Francisco might only draw two kilowatts of power at times of peak demand . . ."

2 kW is probably the average over 24 hours for some houses. No way that is "peak demand." No modern American would use only 2 kW peak during daylight hours. Two people drying their hair with handheld blow dryers is 3 kW. Toss something in the toaster oven and brew coffee for breakfast and you draw 2,750 W. Dry your hair and . . . poof! The street transformer blows? I don't think so.

when its time to get rid of the electric cars will be a environment nightmare in battery's alone

Not everything is new technology although we spend time on this here as this is such a site after all. But just to show how much is possible, here is how I have cut down on emissions and costs just by changing habits leading in all to a subjective (not all would agree) increase in life quality.

Move Slowly

stefan

Thank you for that little insight into your life. An uplifting read.

Quote from Seatrout

when its time to get rid of the electric cars will be a environment nightmare in battery's alone

Nope. Recycling technology is improving rapidly.

Quote from Edo

It is full on summer in the Netherlands, with trails persisting all day and greying out the entire sky, not some Antarctica rare thing for a minute or 2..... Please, even if it is "contrails", the sky is blocked, robbing nature of all normality such as the water cycle or the amount of Sun light, should be a real concern. instead as usual, some jus try to explain it away with some very old misconceptions.

No planes left these trails before 2007/2008 in my country, or at least very low in occurrence, So how come normal planes suddenly started doing that? No the traffic did not increase much in that period.
How come condense suddenly persists and the sky is grey?
How come this escaped the attention of the green lobby?
How come we suddenly have new types of clouds.... ?
How come my plants are suddenly dying in Summer as if they are living in Vietnam during the war and *gasp 'agent orange'?
Why the leaves of plants turn yellow in the summer, Which they never did the first 30 years of my life, a week or 2 after the "mist /drizzle rain" hits them?
How come the weather is changing? (Please spare me CO2 answer)
How come the mainstream media is scaring us to death about global warming, and all that comes with it? I have we not learned they only spew propaganda to serve their interests? (I mean really)
How come the insect population dropped by half or so?
How come free aluminum is seen in the environment? (Normally not possible!)
How come the forest are dying? (beetle is a reaction, not a cause!)
How come there are patents existing for chemtrailing, and
How come this is touted as a solution for a 'global problem' by globalist such as Gates et all?

Does this not cause the slightest feeling something may be "off" here?

But, I am sure I now fall into a category such as "anti-vaxxer" (still not sure what that means)
Should you feel the need to call names, call me "Wappie" that is the Dutch slang for Conspiracy thinking / weirdo / dangerous thinking person.

Display More

Apparently there are (at least) two types of contrails, airplane exhaust contrails and vortice contrails. The vortice ones are wing tip type, and the extreme pressure change alone causes condensation while the exhaust ones add extra water and other nucleates that can cause condensation. The Appleman chart calculates the likelihood of contrails. There is Appleman chart for above 18000 feet and some other contrail propaganda in the link below.

https://www.globe.gov/web/s-cool/home/observation-and-reporting/contrails/appleman-chart-teacher

Quote from stefan

Not everything is new technology although we spend time on this here as this is such a site after all. But just to show how much is possible, here is how I have cut down on emissions and costs just by changing habits leading in all to a subjective (not all would agree) increase in life quality.

Move Slowly

My hat is off to you. I think most of us here try to do our part. We would not come here unless we were friends of the earth. Frankly, living in the most wasteful country on the planet, I have to be careful about telling others what lengths I go through to keep my energy use to a minimum. Honestly, if I admitted being a serial killer, I think they would accept me better.

Oh yes, plenty talk as if they do care, but it ends there. All talk, and no action. Honestly, I think most of the world is like that. No doubt in my mind that science will have to save humanity from itself. They will fight it tooth and nail, all the while pretending otherwise.

Regarding slow driving, with the Prius at highway speeds of 60 to 75 mph, I get about 50 mpg. I sometimes drive on the backroads of Maryland and Pennsylvania. There is no one around and no stop signs for miles. I go at the speed limit, 35 or 45 mph. I often get 100 mpg! If you have to stop and start mileage is lower. There are hills but they are gentle.

Here is a typical road in that area:

Google Maps

Find local businesses, view maps and get driving directions in Google Maps.

goo.gl

Quote from Shane D.

My hat is off to you. I think most of us here try to do our part. We would not come here unless we were friends of the earth. Frankly, living in the most wasteful country on the planet, I have to be careful about telling others what lengths I go through to keep my energy use to a minimum. Honestly, if I admitted being a serial killer, I think they would accept me better.

Oh yes, plenty talk as if they do care, but it ends there. All talk, and no action. Honestly, I think most of the world is like that. No doubt in my mind that science will have to save humanity from itself. They will fight it tooth and nail, all the while pretending otherwise.

I hope that the post did not come out as assuming people here are careless. I just did not realize how much you save by going a bit slower and I too was previously speeding and complaining about high gas prices at the same time all while wanting to care for what we leave for the next generation. It all was an eye opener to me realizing this. A fun fact, actually whenever a speeder now overtakes me on the road I hear a music sound in my mind: "another one bites the dust" (economically speaking) which makes me smile at the humor as it is quite an ironic thought and the speeder may very well have the same sound in his mind.

I have a Nissan (ICE) Altima. In 20,000 miles, average MPG is 43.5. Mostly city driving. Time the lights, slow acceleration, speed limit, and draft on trucks when I can. You know you are doing it right when other drivers give you the middle finger hello.